is the fresh storm u mean is exactly east of the south-andra?…the satellite image shows that most part is on the s-ap side..will it comes down little bit to get the full quantum from it ?
there is nothing in winning the contest by predicting low values…
though everyone knows what can be expected maximum, some predict high values hoping that some kind of magic will help, some predicts low, hoping that pessimistic values give more rains to chennai rather than winning the contest
All of you missed the midnight squall yesterday.The intensity of the rain and the winds have made me contented.We have a lot more in store.
Bloody brilliant it was.
It was actually very nice to see after a long time.Not to worry,a lot more like that coming our way.
Banding pattern clouds normally would be windy.This is formative banding as system is weak but more the low pressure deepens more intense will be the banding as the flow to the low pressure increases.
Oh.I never knew weakening of the system would provide such good outflow to the outer bands.This trend will continue today also,right?
Like yesterday the low intensified slightly thats why those banding clouds formed.From satellite could see good flow coming from Andaman sea to low pressure so we could get heavy rains.
Wow.This is even better than a cyclone.
We need continuous rains.
cyclone bands will be more intense.
True.But they have been unfair to us. 😦
I didn’t miss; But not contended. I predicted 700mm for Dec!
I woke up on hearing the rain noise…But i closed the door as my daughter got disturbed from the noise as my house surrounded by trees are very close to my windows made more noise while raining
After 3 to 4 disturbance,Current system in s.ind ocean managed to intensify as the uL ac developed near the center.. the conditions turning favourable gradually ..
No, All southern hemisphere system will move furthur south,it wont cross equator and move north.Northern hemisphere system wont go to southern hemisphere same vice versa.
The influence of this system will throw up bubble TS today I think.The convection is highly constant near the coast and this will add a few mm’s.
Hello Karthik, recently i got an email that predicts 3 days of blackout for earth..due to some alignment in the universe… dec(22-25)… is that true?? any idea??
Karthik, Here is an example of banding pattern in cyclones.Center there is an eyewall which has the maximum ferocity,to the west and to the east there are banded clouds.These banded clouds are the inflow to the low pressure, as inflow gets violent in cyclones intense convection forms in the center and they later develop an eye and eyewall.
The Ts phenomenon is in action.It wants to keep growing.Storms are spreading across the latitude.We will get the heaviest rains.
The storm is growing a huge tail..
At the moment,it looks that way.The storm will keep coming.Even if the northern part of the storm marginally goes to Ap,We will have a lot from the southern part.
It’s direction is not very clear as of now.
It is moving in east to west only, that big tail coming towards us.
now we have to see it’s sustenance after 100KM radius.
Sustained NE winds prevailing and the clouds moving in from NE only. After reaching 100KM radius it is dissipating.
After watching the animation time and again,I think it’s safe to say they are aligned toward us for sure.
A few front line storms have matured too quickly.The larger,more resistant ones will,however,stay.
This band is also developing into a squall.Wow.
And 12 noon was the ETA.Doesn’t matter if we are behind schedule for a few minutes.
What matters are the rains.
Okay.. If you are confident and we do get rains then its fine.. but radar shows consistent west movement which would mean we will miss out on these rains.
S.AP ruled out from the equation.
Storms are taking a strategic timeout at about 90 km.
A lot more storms are forming and intensifying.
very heavy rain lashing from pondicherry to nagapattinam but in Chennai from morning no rain. Low pressure move to south ITS NEAR KARIKAL. Any chances of continuous rain for Chennai
Arun was there in chennai for 20 days.. Not even a single drop of rain i enjoyed… Now back to Bangalore ! 😦 … Any chances of rain in Bangalore ? haven’t got time to look in to the models …
Low,More it tracks west, the cloud direction wil also increase the westerly movement… Now The circulation has weaknend n turned into spiral shape , so the rain clouds 4m east enters s.ap-n.tn wil recurve sw ,,. So Nw interior tn places arakkonam,tiruttani, vellore wil be getting huge fig wen the storms recurves 4m s.ap… if it recurves bfore hitting the coast, chennai wil get very huge figures… Wat a series of storms following 1 another… It is carrying more than 15cm rain.
KeaWeather Archives 
Andrew Flintoff wins his boxing debut !!
http://www.chennaibulletin.com/sports/andrew-flintoff-wins-on-his-boxing-debut
All Analysis under a single page :-
Doppler Products :-
http://www.chennaibulletin.com/live-weather/doppler-radar-products/
Shear, Vorticity, sat image :-
http://www.chennaibulletin.com/live-weather/
Jon can this system give US another 30_40mm?
ya im hoping for another 5cm min
But nw there is a bright sunlight how can it give us 5cm of rain. Has the system weakened?
have patience.some clouds building up in bay tis may provide some rain later in the day
Boss neenga romba confident ah iru keenga?
but u are gng to lose the contest…
How come record dryness comes to an end?
with 37mm
Computer malfunction at cola
hope its not 😀
Cowan is destroying any chances of an Aussie victory
Fresh start for December, Monsoon recoups in coastal TN
http://www.chennaibulletin.com/news/fresh-start-for-december-monsoon-recoups-in-coastal-tn/
nice! more pics will make it more nice
ty 😉 u mean rain pics or forecast pics?? I’ve added wind analysis
V can xpect Max of 10cm ….
how? sat image is empty
including of what we got 2day morning?
BBC expects rain to continue the whole week
foreca too… until thursday..
Ipo thaan athu ready aguthu.. Wait..it wil come .
No.. .10cm 4m fresh storm.
Cloud pull from north andaman sea ?
yea…
is the fresh storm u mean is exactly east of the south-andra?…the satellite image shows that most part is on the s-ap side..will it comes down little bit to get the full quantum from it ?
no… something huge is being pulled by the circulation towards us, right from north Andaman..
Low would give heavy rain to north TN.It is interacting with srilanka so it will weaken.
Typhoon bopha would reach cat 4 status soon as its intensifying after the end of eye wall replacement cycle which weakened the storm considerably.
is there any possibility for the development of new disturbance in bay after this?
yes, its always there till end of decmeber.
*december
palau escaped !! Filipinos shld prepare themselves to withstand tis monster…
palau escaped the eyewall. Philippines is gonna face the full fury of the storm.
@jon thot u’l increase ur prediction values at least near the end… but u dint !! any reason??
i made a over ambitious prediction for nov which failed miserably so just tried to be pessimistic once.. its working as of now 🙂
lol… u could’ve bet at least a 100 !!
hmmmm ya 😦
Convection will increase in bay today.Only,today we will see the whole magnitude of the system.
Finally you are living upto your name ! Congratulations !
I’ll take that as a compliment?
Thanks. 🙂
partha,the system wont move nw it will move south as there is an high pressure over south peninsula
is there any possibility for the development of new disturbance in bay after this?
Expecting atleast 40cm for chennai from this december
u’ve predicted 70 cm !! tats huuuuuuge
s..i know…that might have come true, if we have got shearless system since the disturbances in bay extremely good
Rain amount for chennai depends on the track of low pressure.We would be getting disturbance till end of December.
A trough of low pressure area lies over Tenasserim coast and adjoining south Andaman Sea.
Amazing guard of honour by SA for Ponting
I hope its a farewell double ton
Feeling better?
@hr649
there is nothing in winning the contest by predicting low values…
though everyone knows what can be expected maximum, some predict high values hoping that some kind of magic will help, some predicts low, hoping that pessimistic values give more rains to chennai rather than winning the contest
our target is chennai and TN getting max possible rains
ha ha… gud thinkin…. hope ur optimism comes true……… I’l gift u somethin if u win the contest 😉
All of you missed the midnight squall yesterday.The intensity of the rain and the winds have made me contented.We have a lot more in store.
Bloody brilliant it was.
missed it… I tried to look through the window… but slept again wit hands on the window without sliding it 😀
It was actually very nice to see after a long time.Not to worry,a lot more like that coming our way.
Banding pattern clouds normally would be windy.This is formative banding as system is weak but more the low pressure deepens more intense will be the banding as the flow to the low pressure increases.
Oh.I never knew weakening of the system would provide such good outflow to the outer bands.This trend will continue today also,right?
Like yesterday the low intensified slightly thats why those banding clouds formed.From satellite could see good flow coming from Andaman sea to low pressure so we could get heavy rains.
Wow.This is even better than a cyclone.
We need continuous rains.
cyclone bands will be more intense.
True.But they have been unfair to us. 😦
I didn’t miss; But not contended. I predicted 700mm for Dec!
I woke up on hearing the rain noise…But i closed the door as my daughter got disturbed from the noise as my house surrounded by trees are very close to my windows made more noise while raining
After 3 to 4 disturbance,Current system in s.ind ocean managed to intensify as the uL ac developed near the center.. the conditions turning favourable gradually ..
is there any forecasted trackpath for this one?
will it helps us in anyway for us to get more rains?
No, All southern hemisphere system will move furthur south,it wont cross equator and move north.Northern hemisphere system wont go to southern hemisphere same vice versa.
The influence of this system will throw up bubble TS today I think.The convection is highly constant near the coast and this will add a few mm’s.
Hello Karthik, recently i got an email that predicts 3 days of blackout for earth..due to some alignment in the universe… dec(22-25)… is that true?? any idea??
Its a rumour spreading in Facebook. There is no truth in it.
nopes.. tats fake !!
Surely fake.No need to worry.
Five NASA scientists and a California science educator took part in a live and they have answered to these rumours
http://www.fosters.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID
http://www.chennaibulletin.com/science/its-not-the-end-of-the-world-wake-up-people
Very informative links… that helps a lot !! 🙂
Vmax=21 kts.Excellent compared to yesterday.
Pressure is increasing because of interaction with SL.
MAX(z) sees a few storms approaching in the 150 km radius.
They will keep growing as they near coast.
Round 2.
Super Typhoon Bopha grazes Palau with minor devastation….
http://www.chennaibulletin.com/weather/super-typhoon-bopha-spares-palau-with-minor-devastation/
Karthik, Here is an example of banding pattern in cyclones.Center there is an eyewall which has the maximum ferocity,to the west and to the east there are banded clouds.These banded clouds are the inflow to the low pressure, as inflow gets violent in cyclones intense convection forms in the center and they later develop an eye and eyewall.
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_pregen_sat/PUBLIC/tc_pages/pages/tc12/WPAC/26W.BOPHA/vis/geo/1km_zoom/full/20121203.0057.mtsat1r.x.vis1km_high.26WBOPHA.105kts-944mb-67N-1316E.100pc.html
Those bands look lethal.Wow.
From what I saw,I think Bopha is carrying less rain than expected of a Cat 5.What do you think?
Oh,I had misconceptions about the eyewall formation.That cleared it up perfectly.Thanks a lot.
For those who missed the “Best Radar of 2012”.
End of ponting’s era.Goodbye,Punter.
KEA will be more upset of his hero’s sad exit
All good things come to an end one day.
Where is jon,PJ sir?
They would love to see the Bubble Ts® on the radar now.
seems more to the north-east of chennai…will it come and hit directly in the 30k radius circle
Radar looks promising now. Will reach after 12 noon
You said 10 am now 12 noon? 😦
s.. those clouds moved more north of chennai…clouds directing to chennai is 90kms away..possibly by noon we will get rains again
I see small isolated bands with small red spots. Are you expecting them to coalesce ?
Sudharsan: It is going to rain. Come home quickly
is Sudarshan a school student?
s.. a class 8th student
really?
s…really
s…still the storms t travel around 90kms
10am No rain ,i Gone with the convection rate i misjudged the time of a rain…sory guys.
What is the average age of bloggers here? I think there are no female bloggers here I think…
Hi…I am a regular follower of this blog…u guys rock!!!!
These are not just Dots.They are maturing thunderstorms.Not as good as yesterday but these seem like they are just popping all over the place.
Will they coalesce into a bigger one as they come closer to coast ?
Probably.I expect them to form one big mass as they near.
No shear force to rip them apart near the coast right ? Its all shear resistance then ?
Thunderstorms need High shear to survive.
The convection and the low pressure induced near the coast is helping them wonders.
So how much is it – wind shear near the coast right now ?
25-30 kts,I suppose.
its bright and sunny in guindy. Will it rain?
Radar says we have a good chance.
so many questions, seems lik gs_18 is waitin for the rain..
Boss,are you seeing the bubble Ts’s forming?They are originating around 300 km and just keeping on popping.
Storms are moving faster than expected.They may not merge into one big mass.
PPI radar says this is just the start of many to come.
so can’t expect all parts of chennai to get rains like early morning…
some can get and some will miss…am i right karthick?
I think rain will be widespread.But the intensity is gonna fluctuate.
Different TS’s are at different stages now.
Karthikstorm ungalloda no 1 fan naan than neenga sonna ellam correct ah than irukum
Thanks a lot.Naan solratha romba lam nambadheenga.Nan konjam olaru vai than. 🙂
Boss after Sel and kea ur info is more than 95 percent correct @ Karthikstorm
@kea, two topics a day causes bit of confusion. Some guys are posting in the old topic itself!
Yeah,We could have stuck to the old one for little more while.
Looks like they won’t organise themselves.It’s fine.They are high intensity compartments in each of em’.
Around the 90 km mark,now.
what time can we expect it to start raining…i’m getting tired of peeping out of window every now and then
At 12 noon.
may be after 12
Right from 12 am today,it has been Nunga’s day today.Let’s hope the ride continues.
How do you know that i am in old topic?
I saw sometime back.I thought you will come.I checked again now.You were still there.That’s why.
i did not see the new topic, i got mail from KEA and i forgot it.
karthik, post a gif image in the previous topic .. 😉
How’s that?
Karthik,
It is getting organized now, afternoon lunch is getting ready.
http://www.imd.gov.in/section/dwr/dynamic/dwr.htm
*washes spoons and forks and gets ready*
even if it doesn’t get organised we’l have rain.. But unevenly in parts of chennai
last night ter was no thunder i guess..
yes, but we had some lightnings
I think LPA will further move down south and cross near comorin area and move to indian ocean.
LPA landfall at 10.6N, 80E.
http://www.imd.gov.in/section/dwr/img/Animation/dop_ani_main.htm
must be near karaikal?
Below Karaikal. Already crossed. No more LLC.
we’l wait for the multidimensional wind analysis update by 11.30am
What happened to CMC?
Starting from Arabian Sea travels through TN and going to bay and crossing srilanka, the report looks like that.
lol.. Wt is tat? I even checked the month and year
12 Noon spell may be isolated one and short life
Another 4CM of rain on the way.
Clouds moving toward N Chennai and S AP
@karthik yea a perfect one 😉 users vil immediately jump out of the topic 😀
Ha Ha. 😀
Less storms below 13 N compartively
More and more from latest radar..
http://www.imd.gov.in/section/dwr/dynamic/dwr.htm
the sun is trying to dominate wit its mighty sunlight.. But our Soldiers started marching to stop tis..
Chennai 37MM
Ennore 19MM
Thiruchendur 1MM
Tiruthani 3MM
Nattam 6MM
Kalavai 9MM
Aduthurai 1MM
Mailam 5MM
Karaikal 3MM
Chidambaram 4MM
From 12:30 onwards, we are going get lashed by thunder storms! Be prepared.
back to back ones, we’l have different figures from parts of d city
Something tells me that it is going north of Chennai.
i too feel the same..s-ap might grab it from us
Not much rain in Cauvery delta?
yea.. Disappointing 😦
GFS for next 24 hours.
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/GFSTROPIOCN_12z/gfs24.html
According ti this, there is a fresh LOW at 4N and 96E.
another low near andaman
If we have to get these storms, we need to have consistent NE winds.. else it will go to South Andhra.
Tiny storms dissipating.New ones forming below 13 N. Next Band consolidating. We have to wait for more time
The Ts phenomenon is in action.It wants to keep growing.Storms are spreading across the latitude.We will get the heaviest rains.
The storm is growing a huge tail..
Karthik, http://www.imd.gov.in/section/dwr/img/Animation/dop_ani_main.htm shows that Rain clouds are moving to South of andhra??
At the moment,it looks that way.The storm will keep coming.Even if the northern part of the storm marginally goes to Ap,We will have a lot from the southern part.
It’s direction is not very clear as of now.
It is moving in east to west only, that big tail coming towards us.
now we have to see it’s sustenance after 100KM radius.
Sustained NE winds prevailing and the clouds moving in from NE only. After reaching 100KM radius it is dissipating.
Latest insat, stretching tail towards a big mass in East central bay.
http://www.imd.gov.in/section/nhac/dynamic/nhacsatimg.htm
After watching the animation time and again,I think it’s safe to say they are aligned toward us for sure.
A few front line storms have matured too quickly.The larger,more resistant ones will,however,stay.
i too believe this..
Heavy rain forecast for north coastal TN for next 48 hours.
The circulation is pulling in all the cloud mass from East and Central bay.I think we are in for continuous rains at least for 1.5 to 2 days.
The dark clouds have started rolling in to the city.There are some pretty heavy clouds there.
as per WV insat, more rains down south coastal TN.
http://www.imd.gov.in/section/nhac/dynamic/Monsoon_frame.htm
RADAR is not getting updated, rain is very near.
Latest CTT, south coastal TN has some convection.
http://www.imd.gov.in/section/satmet/dynamic/iso.htm
Its 12 noon, wher is the rain man? i can see only rainmen
Partha:There are some mosquito menace in this blog
be direct… wat do u mean?
This band is also developing into a squall.Wow.
And 12 noon was the ETA.Doesn’t matter if we are behind schedule for a few minutes.
What matters are the rains.
@Parthasri : are you sayin it will be ‘ chennaiyil oru mazhai kalam…’ this week?
Why are the clouds moving North West? BTW it is sunny here in RA Puram.. Not sure whether the clouds are.
The storms are aligned towards us.We will get the brunt.HPA exist above our latitude.Even if it’s a supercell,it has to come to us only.
Okay.. If you are confident and we do get rains then its fine.. but radar shows consistent west movement which would mean we will miss out on these rains.
S.AP ruled out from the equation.
Storms are taking a strategic timeout at about 90 km.
A lot more storms are forming and intensifying.
Penetrating the 60 km radius now.
How are you saying this? If you look at the radar animation… they have been moving more or less west which would mean south andhra.
pulicat is getting the most from it
Pouring here..wow.
Villivakkam?
Boss,ore abasakunama kelvi kekranga.Nalla vela.
Mazhai vanthirchu.
Why are you guys being negative when clouds are in the radar!?
We were like this the whole of November.It ended very well for us.
Let’s not make the same mistake this month.
very heavy rain lashing from pondicherry to nagapattinam but in Chennai from morning no rain. Low pressure move to south ITS NEAR KARIKAL. Any chances of continuous rain for Chennai
Chennai will not miss out.Period.
I’m not sure how much amount we can expect from this storm.
Eagerly awaiting to see the rains.I had missed out yesterday night as I had slept early !
Heavyweights are moving on slowly.
Once cloud cover is complete,the rains will begin.
possibly north-chennai and north of chennai will be heavy
have to wait another 2 hrs it seems as the storm has moved just 30kms in around 1 and half hrs
Arun was there in chennai for 20 days.. Not even a single drop of rain i enjoyed… Now back to Bangalore ! 😦 … Any chances of rain in Bangalore ? haven’t got time to look in to the models …
First wave of rain bands are stolen by S. AP in a broad day light robbery, Hope some clouds escpped from them and poured in catchmnet areas.
We need Police escort immediately!
Fingers crossed.Hope we get some heavy rains today. This november was most weird and irritating for us
if chennai’s catchment areas gets enough rain to full its capacity, that’s more than enough
See Kea’s cam.The cloud cover process is ongoing.
Moderate drizzle for 10 minutes but the sun says I Am back
A few small Ts’s are forming in front of the huge band.
I believe they will open the account for us in this spell.
by end of 2night expecting around 5cm…will it come true?
cloud cover here !! 🙂
guindy?
seems to be very Low hanging clouds
@raijin yep in guindy
Low,More it tracks west, the cloud direction wil also increase the westerly movement… Now The circulation has weaknend n turned into spiral shape , so the rain clouds 4m east enters s.ap-n.tn wil recurve sw ,,. So Nw interior tn places arakkonam,tiruttani, vellore wil be getting huge fig wen the storms recurves 4m s.ap… if it recurves bfore hitting the coast, chennai wil get very huge figures… Wat a series of storms following 1 another… It is carrying more than 15cm rain.
Karthik, bopha is having extremely heavy rain clouds.
It has intensified and regained cat 4.It has increased its forward motion.
Oh,I think I misread it.So Phillipines are having lesser time to escape…
yes.
One good thing for Philippines is that the storm is moving fast so it could clear up quickly but still its a monster storm they are facing.
Remarks on upcoming band in radar,na?
We would be getting heavy rain from it.We could get 10 cm or more till tomorrow morning.
clouds are jus moving away.. Not a drop still..
The smaller ones will start it off,then..
E-NE turning dark again..
Extreme low clouds just passing me by.Only if it had a cloud cover support..
You changed your gravatar, is it you on this pic?
No,sir.It is just something I drew..
i think its from the game half life.
No,just a fanart from Breaking Bad.
Huge approaching….
can we get atleast 5cm by end of 2night ?
TAMIL NADU DAILY RAINFALL DATED 03.12.2012
THE CHIEF AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL RECORDED IN CENTIMETRES AT 0830 HOURS IST OF DATE:
Anna University (Chennai Dist) and Chennai AP (Kancheepuram Dist) 5 each, Chennai(N) and DGP office (both Chennai Dist) and Tambaram (Kancheepuram Dist) 4 each, Sriperumbudur and Kancheepuram (both Kancheepuram Dist) 3 each, Ennore AWS (Tiruvallur Dist), Vanur (Villupuram Dist), Chengalpattu (Kancheepuram Dist) and Cheyyar (Tiruvannamalai Dist) 2 each and Poondi, Ponneri, Tiruvallur, Thiruvalangadu, Cholavaram and Red hills (all Tiruvallur Dist), Maduranthagam, Kalpakkam and Uthiramerur (all Kancheepuram Dist), Tindivanam, Tirukoilur and Gingee (all Villupuram Dist), Sirkali (Nagapattinam Dist), Nannilam (Tiruvarur Dist) and Kalavai AWS (Vellore Dist) 1 each.
SELVANFUN
WHAT IS HUGE APPROACHING
North turned pitch black….pulicat enjoying.
mani will always be enjoying !!
Latest insat pic.
http://www.imd.gov.in/section/nhac/dynamic/nhacsatimg.htm
Started here.Heavy drizzles.
sunshine at kathipara junction right now
It changed even before I completed typing the previous comment.Dark skies now..
Where?
T.nagar.
Wind velocity is increasing
Vinod anna says we will get 10 cm by tomorrow morning.
He says Chennai will get the brunt.
So,everyone can start enjoying the rains
Vinod bro sonna correcta than irukum 😉
awesome radar pic.
http://www.imd.gov.in/section/dwr/dynamic/dwr.htm
A very high intensity storm is moviing over T.Nagar.
I think we got drizzles from tat..