Brilliant to see two systems just off the equator. One spinning in anti clockwise (ours) and the other spinning in clockwise direction. Will be a treat to see for sure.
Each stages in cyclogenesis process tat is going to happen wil b very rapid … Sst in and around s.bay ticking around 31-32*c.. Shear wil be in favour .. And more importantly Tchp is very fav for spontaneous action.. Depth 26c isotherm is 75-100km in s,sw bay… Actually tat was the prime reason for nargis to intensify rapidly… Same conditions prevailing now …lets c.
Iam following ur comments in this blog. Wat is ur opinion on Mahesan? Also can u share me the website links for above models apart from wethonline website.
@ Karthikstrom , thats my gut feeling that it would be between N.TN and Nellore. I had posted the same late last night. If this happens, we are sure to get good rains.
on my way to Mysore currently in bengloor.its warm
I sincerely hope this forecast from Vagaries is wrong
A low pressure, BB-1, develops in the Southern Bay, SE off Sri Lanka around the 6th of May. Strengthened by various factors, the system will deepen into a depression by the 8th and a deep depression by the 9th/10th.
Due to “high” resistance initially,BB-1 will not move beyond the 10N line till the 10th, and may just come upto East off Sri Lanka.
Sri Lanka , east coast in particular, gets very heavy rains from the 7th of May…
Very soon, thereafter, indications are there of a rapid North wards movement due to favourable conditions, and possibly deepen more on its track.
Vagaries will monitor the strength of BB-1, now a Deep Depression and its track, as it moves past Chennai after the 11th of May.
Ridge near mumbai is going to be a dominant n influential steering factor…. Til may 7th it is going to b strong ,in such case the system mite cross s.tn or lanka… Tats y rajesh sir hav mentioned like tat
Clear. High of 99F with a heat index of 115F. Breezy. Winds from the SSE at 10 to 20 mph.
Saturday Night
Clear in the evening, then partly cloudy. Low of 86F with a heat index of 102F. Breezy. Winds from the South at 15 to 20 mph.
Sunday
Partly cloudy. High of 95F with a heat index of 109F. Breezy. Winds from the SSE at 10 to 20 mph.
Sunday Night
Partly cloudy in the evening, then overcast. Low of 84F with a heat index of 102F. Winds from the SSE at 5 to 20 mph.
Monday
Overcast. High of 95F with a heat index of 106F. Winds from the SSE at 10 to 15 mph.
Monday Night
Mostly cloudy in the evening, then overcast. Low of 84F with a heat index of 99F. Winds from the SSE at 5 to 15 mph.
Tuesday
Overcast in the morning, then mostly cloudy. High of 93F with a heat index of 106F. Winds from the SSE at 5 to 15 mph.
Tuesday Night
Mostly cloudy. Low of 84F with a heat index of 99F. Winds from the SSE at 10 to 15 mph.
Wednesday
Overcast. High of 93F with a heat index of 104F. Winds from the SSE at 10 to 15 mph.
Wednesday Night
Overcast. Low of 86F with a heat index of 102F. Breezy. Winds from the SSE at 10 to 20 mph.
Thursday
Overcast. High of 97F with a heat index of 111F. Breezy. Winds from the SSE at 10 to 20 mph.
Thursday Night
Overcast. Low of 84F with a heat index of 104F. Winds from the SSE at 10 to 15 mph.
Friday
Overcast. High of 97F. Winds from the South at 5 to 15 mph shifting to the ESE in the afternoon.
Friday Night
Overcast. Low of 86F. Winds from the East at 5 to 15 mph.
Saturday
Overcast with a chance of a thunderstorm. High of 95F. Winds from the ESE at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 30%.
Saturday Night
Overcast with a chance of a thunderstorm. Low of 84F. Winds from the SE at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 60% with rainfall amounts near 0.3 in. possible.
Sunday
Overcast with thunderstorms. High of 93F. Winds from the SE at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 70% with rainfall amounts near 1.1 in. possible.
Sunday Night
Overcast with thunderstorms. Low of 84F. Winds from the South at 5 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70% with rainfall amounts near 2.8 in. possible.
Monday
Overcast with thunderstorms. High of 93F. Winds from the SSW at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70% with rainfall amounts near 2.3 in. possible.
Monday Night
Overcast with a chance of a thunderstorm. Low of 84F. Winds from the SSW at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 60% with rainfall amounts near 0.6 in. possible.
Astro-Meteorologist S. Ramachandran has predicted the possibility of cyclone hitting north TN and south AP between May 14 and May 18 due to planetary positions…..
@ Kea, Dont worry, 101 is an auspicious number here in India and his prediction is bang on target for the 101st time.
@Sel-Well, i had posted a similar prediction and BTW with due respects , Mr.Ramachandran too must be a blogger here with a different name and must be following all the weather models..Hope his predictions are bang on..
The track is still not clear, and I have indicated with a “dotted Line:” in yesterday’s map the track could be NW towards TN….international tracks have been swinging like a pendulum, and I have explained the 3 possibilities cited by many models today in vagaries….i.may be wrong, as i am not an expert like most of you..and thanks Selvafun for the honour…
@Shankar29 well, thats an huge amount of rainfall..something similar to what Madras had on 27th Morning , Oct 2005. Oosupethi oosupethi odamba rana kalam aakaraangaya…. just cant wait to see that much rains…
In fact, vagaries had predicted the low formation in MW-2 (on 25th April), indicating the movement of the MJO Eastwards and creating very favourable situations in the Bay…
@selvafun: all have to be monitored and seen in the perspective..
@kea,
Let the game begin
Start some polls like place of landfall, amount of rain….
I am pessimistic on this storm and I feel it would track nne and move to Myanmar.
This would only increase our temp to 40+ levels.
Have to wait till October for our turn.
Hello all bloggers. Nice to be back here after a longime. But of course i have been a passive watcher from Newyork. How i miss chennai…
Congrats to kea and others to making it to the headlines.
I feel Mahesen would follow the path of the 1990 May super cyclone that crossed Machilipatnam.
Chennai got intense rains on May 7th and 8th. We received 16 cms of rains in Just 2 hours and wind speed touched 140 Km/h.
In machilipatnam winds speed were up to 230 Km/h
This storm came as close as 150 kms east of chennai and then headed north to hit Machilipatnam.
Initially they were maintaining that this storm would cross near nagai, then cuddalore and chennai, then chennai and nellore and later it hit machilipatnam.
Models are expecting the Mid level high in arabian sea to weaken around 11 which would make the storm to move in a more west -NW direction after May 10 or 11.
Y every1 ignoring chennai for the point of landfall… Lol.. Imd n jtwc wil giv the avg track tat wil b close to chennai -nellore….still long way to go….
KeaWeather Archives 
Last update 4m gfs was a disappointing one….
It’s just 6 a.m. But temperature is already at 31 in Chennai
yes… min was almost 30
I hope it brings wide spread rains for the entire state…
I feel this will take its own sweet time and head north to Andhra or Orissa
@selvan..
Dont worry boss.. GFS will change the update for every 1 hour…
First let it be formed.. then only the correct picture will come..
we will Wait..
Luk at the vorticity gathering in s.bay ,just amazing ., n divergence at 40-50… Wat a banging start for the future disturbance. http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/indian/winds/wm5dvg.GIF
shear tendency increasing………..
http://chennaibulletin.com/live-weather/
water vapor intensity looks amazing !!
http://chennaibulletin.com/live-weather/indian-ocean-real-time/
lat gfs
Latest GFS slows it’s progress, lingers around E of Lanka around 11th May. Intensity constant.
Brilliant to see two systems just off the equator. One spinning in anti clockwise (ours) and the other spinning in clockwise direction. Will be a treat to see for sure.
IO912013 – INVEST
Storm track :-
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/storm.asp?storm_identifier=IO912013
Thanks a lot for posting this! I was waiting for RAMMB to put it up.
Gud to see you again here…………
Been so long 😀 . Was busy with college. Anyway, let the games begin. 😛
sat image 1 Km
2.8N 83.6E Intensity 15
So, it begins…
Yesterday’s max 36.1
Minimum Temp 28.9
lat sat image
plum cake in s.bay…lol
yeaaaaaaaaaaa
Whistle podu…
91B ON ITS WAY…. MAHESAN.
Cola’s 4 day
foreca expects cloudy weather from may 11
http://www.foreca.com/India/State_of_Tamil_Nadu/Chennai?tenday
http://atlas.pdc.org/atlas/?id=7138
that’s the closest we will get to Mahasen
Too early to say that. Current coordinates are 3.8N 83.6E .
Water Vapor Imagery. No shortage of that for this system.
ctt -80
Each stages in cyclogenesis process tat is going to happen wil b very rapid … Sst in and around s.bay ticking around 31-32*c.. Shear wil be in favour .. And more importantly Tchp is very fav for spontaneous action.. Depth 26c isotherm is 75-100km in s,sw bay… Actually tat was the prime reason for nargis to intensify rapidly… Same conditions prevailing now …lets c.
SST looks perfect. rapid intensification possible once the core develops
Yeah, should be exciting.
lat gfs looks better.cyclone is forming very close to SL.
Hopefully that doesn’t impede it’s progress.
navy nrl : 91BINVEST.15kts 1010mb-2.8N-83.6E.. it has to still come up with latitude north to hav a steady circulation…
Steady convection happening.
Updates waiting: Cola,ncmwrf updates followed by imd gfs,jma… And then the giant Ecmwf….. Lots more to follow.
luk at the update 4m NCEP GFS ,ridge 4m w.india sitting near N.AP.. NO WAY ,TIS HAS TO HIT TN http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/gfs/00/gfs_asia_168_precip_p24.gif
Hi Selva,
Iam following ur comments in this blog. Wat is ur opinion on Mahesan? Also can u share me the website links for above models apart from wethonline website.
Thanks in advance
lat gfs out. mahesan inching closer to central tn coast
Surely landfall near N.TN/ S.AP given this forecast track.
@ Karthikstrom , thats my gut feeling that it would be between N.TN and Nellore. I had posted the same late last night. If this happens, we are sure to get good rains.
on my way to Mysore currently in bengloor.its warm
Cola update is out .mahesan to fight with entire tn coast loj http://www.monsoondata.org/wx/prec12.png
awesome…hope this would becomes true
expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/2013/05/04/basis00/swas/pr06/13051200_0400.gif
looks gr8 ftm
I sincerely hope this forecast from Vagaries is wrong
A low pressure, BB-1, develops in the Southern Bay, SE off Sri Lanka around the 6th of May. Strengthened by various factors, the system will deepen into a depression by the 8th and a deep depression by the 9th/10th.
Due to “high” resistance initially,BB-1 will not move beyond the 10N line till the 10th, and may just come upto East off Sri Lanka.
Sri Lanka , east coast in particular, gets very heavy rains from the 7th of May…
Very soon, thereafter, indications are there of a rapid North wards movement due to favourable conditions, and possibly deepen more on its track.
Vagaries will monitor the strength of BB-1, now a Deep Depression and its track, as it moves past Chennai after the 11th of May.
Latest updates are just out. Moving more in an eastern track than predicted before. So, that’ll change.
hmmm let’s c.most times they dont get it rite
@kea do not under estimate him. He may be wrong. It is not a fixed forecast. He may change it tomorrow.
@dashman
start voting
Yes.. Rajesh sir forecast wil go wrong… He has seen many failures in his predictions… Anyway v respect n honour him..
hai sel can you give any update regarding the tc approaching our coast
Delhi’s Max 38.3
Min 19.8
Weird extremes, tat too in summer……………….
Vellore started experiencing 40 above !!
41.7 yesterday
Accu saying, 39, 42 and 40 for us starting Friday
when was the last time Chennaittes Witnessed Boats and Katamarans?
hi kea wishing you all the best for this weather blogs
2008 during nisha
Hi Selva sir,
Kindly reply to my request
Thanks in advance
Ridge near mumbai is going to be a dominant n influential steering factor…. Til may 7th it is going to b strong ,in such case the system mite cross s.tn or lanka… Tats y rajesh sir hav mentioned like tat
Hpa near mumbai and http://kidlat.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/gsm/wind500hpa_3dayforecast.gif and also the one near ap http://kidlat.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/gsm/geopht500hpa_3dayforecast.gif
even cmc has changed its forecast
expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/cmc/2013/05/03/basis12/swas/prec/13050912_0312.gif
Dinesh,Power shutdown here 4m 10am-12pm…i wil share aftr 12.30pm… Post ur mail id or fb id…
Hi Selva,
Thanks for your reply.
Facebook Link : https://www.facebook.com/dinesh.chennai.in
Mail : dinuarcher@gmail.com
Intense convection in and around the mass. Looks good.
Hi dinesh. Pls dnt mention sir aftr My name … Name alone is ok..
Sure Selva..
Can you share me the links for weather models.
New coordinates. 3.7N 86.9E. Intensity 15
Movement ENE
New updated forecast from Accuweather
Monday – 38
Tue & Wed – 39
Thursday – 41
Fri & Sat – 42
Sun & Mon – 40
Tuesday May 14th – a couple of showers Max 35
summer returns from Wednesday 15th onwards
will be get to follow Mahasen in the middle of our peak summer?
Kea
that looks gr8!!! 🙂
WU has reduced the rainfall estimate from 181.3 to 162.3 mm
Will be happy if Chennai gets 1/4 of this amount.
exactly……………..
Underground water shortage in valasaravakam…….
Just look at the convection..Looks good..
http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/?lat=13.08783817&lon=80.27847290&zoom=8&pin=Madras%2c%20India&type=hyb&rad=0&wxsn=0&svr=0&cams=0&sat=1&sat.num=1&sat.spd=25&sat.opa=85&sat.gtt1=109&sat.gtt2=108&sat.type=VIS&riv=0&mm=0&hur=0
Descriptive Forecast
Saturday
Clear. High of 99F with a heat index of 115F. Breezy. Winds from the SSE at 10 to 20 mph.
Saturday Night
Clear in the evening, then partly cloudy. Low of 86F with a heat index of 102F. Breezy. Winds from the South at 15 to 20 mph.
Sunday
Partly cloudy. High of 95F with a heat index of 109F. Breezy. Winds from the SSE at 10 to 20 mph.
Sunday Night
Partly cloudy in the evening, then overcast. Low of 84F with a heat index of 102F. Winds from the SSE at 5 to 20 mph.
Monday
Overcast. High of 95F with a heat index of 106F. Winds from the SSE at 10 to 15 mph.
Monday Night
Mostly cloudy in the evening, then overcast. Low of 84F with a heat index of 99F. Winds from the SSE at 5 to 15 mph.
Tuesday
Overcast in the morning, then mostly cloudy. High of 93F with a heat index of 106F. Winds from the SSE at 5 to 15 mph.
Tuesday Night
Mostly cloudy. Low of 84F with a heat index of 99F. Winds from the SSE at 10 to 15 mph.
Wednesday
Overcast. High of 93F with a heat index of 104F. Winds from the SSE at 10 to 15 mph.
Wednesday Night
Overcast. Low of 86F with a heat index of 102F. Breezy. Winds from the SSE at 10 to 20 mph.
Thursday
Overcast. High of 97F with a heat index of 111F. Breezy. Winds from the SSE at 10 to 20 mph.
Thursday Night
Overcast. Low of 84F with a heat index of 104F. Winds from the SSE at 10 to 15 mph.
Friday
Overcast. High of 97F. Winds from the South at 5 to 15 mph shifting to the ESE in the afternoon.
Friday Night
Overcast. Low of 86F. Winds from the East at 5 to 15 mph.
Saturday
Overcast with a chance of a thunderstorm. High of 95F. Winds from the ESE at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 30%.
Saturday Night
Overcast with a chance of a thunderstorm. Low of 84F. Winds from the SE at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 60% with rainfall amounts near 0.3 in. possible.
Sunday
Overcast with thunderstorms. High of 93F. Winds from the SE at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 70% with rainfall amounts near 1.1 in. possible.
Sunday Night
Overcast with thunderstorms. Low of 84F. Winds from the South at 5 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70% with rainfall amounts near 2.8 in. possible.
Monday
Overcast with thunderstorms. High of 93F. Winds from the SSW at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70% with rainfall amounts near 2.3 in. possible.
Monday Night
Overcast with a chance of a thunderstorm. Low of 84F. Winds from the SSW at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 60% with rainfall amounts near 0.6 in. possible.
Pressure decreasing slowly in the system.
http://www.accuweather.com/en/in/cola/192668/satellite/192668
tats awesome sel…………
Astro-Meteorologist S. Ramachandran has predicted the possibility of cyclone hitting north TN and south AP between May 14 and May 18 due to planetary positions…..
I too think so.
Do you remember the 100 times he was wrong?
@ Kea, Dont worry, 101 is an auspicious number here in India and his prediction is bang on target for the 101st time.
@Sel-Well, i had posted a similar prediction and BTW with due respects , Mr.Ramachandran too must be a blogger here with a different name and must be following all the weather models..Hope his predictions are bang on..
Thunderstorms popping..
http://chennaibulletin.com/live-weather/doppler-radar-products/
Vorticity building rapidly
http://chennaibulletin.com/live-weather/
some models shows system touching 90knts intensity…. tat is very huge
Latest gfs is awesome
But again, gfs will change 100 times before landfall
lol
Its changed in 6 GMT run and already showing that system will skip Madras and head towards A.P
http://rajesh26.blogspot.com/2013/05/weather-for-weekend-4th5th-and-6th-may.html?showComment=1367657040123&m=1#c3718370515604716997
The track is still not clear, and I have indicated with a “dotted Line:” in yesterday’s map the track could be NW towards TN….international tracks have been swinging like a pendulum, and I have explained the 3 possibilities cited by many models today in vagaries….i.may be wrong, as i am not an expert like most of you..and thanks Selvafun for the honour…
You might still be right. International models change their track 4 times a day
Rajesh sir Tats ok.. Fine ,and wich one u considered as a most influential steering factor??
Selva, Please share me some weather models link 🙂
http://www.weather-forecast.com/locations/Madras/forecasts/latest
look at this forecast for chennai…..they are predicting 272 mm
As i said earlier I will be happy with 40-50 mm
@Shankar29 well, thats an huge amount of rainfall..something similar to what Madras had on 27th Morning , Oct 2005. Oosupethi oosupethi odamba rana kalam aakaraangaya…. just cant wait to see that much rains…
In fact, vagaries had predicted the low formation in MW-2 (on 25th April), indicating the movement of the MJO Eastwards and creating very favourable situations in the Bay…
@selvafun: all have to be monitored and seen in the perspective..
கனிச்மான மழை பெய்தல் போதும்
Getting darker at krishnagiri.
Cool breeze and distant rumbles…
Pleasant weather from 3 pm…
It had rained moderately last night.
Look at the watervapour level sse of srilanka
http://chennaibulletin.com/live-weather/indian-ocean-real-time/
@kea,
Let the game begin
Start some polls like place of landfall, amount of rain….
I am pessimistic on this storm and I feel it would track nne and move to Myanmar.
This would only increase our temp to 40+ levels.
Have to wait till October for our turn.
இவரு ரொம்ப நல்லவரு
Contests consume a lot of time. If anyone interested in doing it, may do so
Good soul let god b less u
Kea, thanks for displaying my poll….
Landfall near central AP..but heavy rains for Chennai
http://www.weather-forecast.com/maps/India?over=pressure_arrows&symbols=none&type=wind
will it be the next cyclone SIDR????god knows
no sidr actually formed over se bay.this one is likely to form in sc n se bay
i was talking about the track…..
lightning activity in Mysore. expecting rains soon
Last 3 positions of the system
2.8 83.6
3.7 86.9
4.5 85.4 (latest)
http://lasp.colorado.edu/maven/goingtomars/send-your-name/
Tday morning update 4m Gfs said system at peak intensity with 941mb …. Now sumwat reduced.
As kea had accepted, let me begin the contest.
Place of landfall
a) not in India
b) bwn cuddalore and nagai
c) bwn nellore and cuddalore
d) bwn nellore and vizag
e) odisha
My view is (a)
A
A
D
Srry I mean B
c
For rains in Chennai between 7th and 14th
Ganesh : 10-20 mm
may 9 – 13th .. all in 40s –accuweather 😦 😦
Hello all bloggers. Nice to be back here after a longime. But of course i have been a passive watcher from Newyork. How i miss chennai…
Congrats to kea and others to making it to the headlines.
I feel Mahesen would follow the path of the 1990 May super cyclone that crossed Machilipatnam.
Chennai got intense rains on May 7th and 8th. We received 16 cms of rains in Just 2 hours and wind speed touched 140 Km/h.
In machilipatnam winds speed were up to 230 Km/h
This storm came as close as 150 kms east of chennai and then headed north to hit Machilipatnam.
Initially they were maintaining that this storm would cross near nagai, then cuddalore and chennai, then chennai and nellore and later it hit machilipatnam.
http://www.imd.gov.in/section/satmet/dynamic/cmv.htm
http://www.imd.gov.in/section/satmet/dynamic/insatsector-irc.htm
Perfect timing. Mahasen on the way
Ya,it seems similar to 1990 andhra cyclone.
Very nice to hear that from you. 😀
Contest update:
(a) Ganesh, gokul,killercyclone
Ganesh: 10-20 mm
Models are expecting the Mid level high in arabian sea to weaken around 11 which would make the storm to move in a more west -NW direction after May 10 or 11.
Hi All,
I went through the comments made by you today. 99% confidence of Mahesan i could see.
No job for me, since all of you are confident.
Dense water vapour in south bay.
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/sat-bin/display10.cgi?SIZE=thumb&PHOT=yes&AREA=indian/southern&PROD=vapor&NAV=tropics&DISPLAY=Latest&CGI=tropics.cgi&CURRENT=20130504.1530.meteo7.ir.x.io_tropics.x.jpg&MOSAIC_SCALE=15
Hope Myanmar starts making preparations for cyclone Mahasen from tomorrow itself.
What makes you say that Kea?
Based on Vinodh’s comment
There is a high pressure located near myanmar which will hold the storm away from the coast.Most likely target would be TN or AP.
AP has the higher chance.
Severe TS over Karnataka-TN border.
Isolated rain reported near Anthiyur and surrounding area.of .Erode dt.
great, probably 30-40MM
Hi All,
I dont believe this, i dont believe this,
Is it 968MB????
What am i seeing from being in Tamil Nadu, Suddenly Bay has become Atlantic??
Hope GFS does not change!!!!!!
http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=swas&MODELL=gfs&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=prec&HH=180&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=
More than atlantic ,western pacific would be right.Western pacific basin produces big daddy of all storms
GEFS forecasts this system will move further and make a land fall near Vizag .However Chennai will start receive rain from 13th.
http://www.ncmrwf.gov.in/GEFS/GEFS_RAIN_CH-10.htm
12 hours precipitation on 12th May 2013.
http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=swas&MODELL=gfs&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=pr12&HH=180&ARCHIV=0&ZOOM=0&PERIOD=&WMO=
ECMWF suggests it moves north from 14th, less rain expected for chennai.
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/eps/ensm/essential!MSLP!Asia!240!pop!od!enfo!plot_ensm_essential!2013050400!!/
Rain may begin from 12th night.
There is no accumulation till 12th morning
http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=swas&MODELL=gfs&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=rsum&HH=186&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=
do we have any recorded history of cyclones striking orissa or north coastal AP in may…rhe first half of may….
I have never seen a system hitting orissa in May.
Either these system head to myanmror bangadesh wb coast.
Never seen one hot orissa or N,AP
very rare.it happened once..
Tremor 4.7 on richter scale near Sumatra
http://www.tmd.go.th/en/earthquake_report.php
91B invest intesifying in Indian Ocean
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_display.cgi?ACTION=Latest_Photos&ACTIVES=None&MOSAIC_SCALE=20&SIZE=thumb&PHOT=yes&NAV=tc&ATCF_BASIN=io&ATCF_YR=1&ATCF_FILE=1/&CURRENT_ATCF_FILE=1/&MO=MAY&CURRENT=20130504.0900.meteo7.x.ir1km_bw.91BINVEST.15kts-1010mb-37N-869E.100pc.jpg&AGE=Latest&ATCF_NAME=io911&ATCF_DIR=1&STYLE=frames&YEAR=2013&YR=13&BASIN=IO&STORM_NAME=91B.INVEST&ARCHIVE=active&AID_DIR=/SATPRODUCTS/kauai_data/www/indian/southern/microvap/dmsp&DIR=/SATPRODUCTS/TC/tc13/IO/91B.INVEST/ir/geo/1km_bw&TYPE=ir&PRODUCT=ir&SUB_PROD=geo&SUB_SUB_PROD=1km_bw&PROD=ir
Forecast rain from 11th afternoon.
When will Mahasen be mentioned in the papers?
most probably by May 9 or 10th
Models are finding difficult to point out the location of cyclogenesis..It will be clear only when the LLC becomes well defines one.
Vinodh,
I think we have to wait for another 4 days to find the results.
yes,until the vortex gets defined.Models will find difficult to point the location of storm so variation of track during each run will be high.
Yeah, the associated cloud mass has been drifting west since morning. It may take a day or two to have proper coordinates.
Another model suggests Mahesan moving north.
Crossing coast near Orissa-WB coast on 14th as per NCEP forecast.
Y every1 ignoring chennai for the point of landfall… Lol.. Imd n jtwc wil giv the avg track tat wil b close to chennai -nellore….still long way to go….
5.3 quake, Off the west coast of northern Sumatra 2013-05-02 19:40:52 2.747°N 91.570°E 15.0
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/