193 thoughts on “BOB system expected to intensify into a Cyclone

  1. @selvan..

    Dont worry boss.. GFS will change the update for every 1 hour…

    First let it be formed.. then only the correct picture will come..

    we will Wait..

    • Brilliant to see two systems just off the equator. One spinning in anti clockwise (ours) and the other spinning in clockwise direction. Will be a treat to see for sure.

  2. Each stages in cyclogenesis process tat is going to happen wil b very rapid … Sst in and around s.bay ticking around 31-32*c.. Shear wil be in favour .. And more importantly Tchp is very fav for spontaneous action.. Depth 26c isotherm is 75-100km in s,sw bay… Actually tat was the prime reason for nargis to intensify rapidly… Same conditions prevailing now …lets c.

    • Hi Selva,

      Iam following ur comments in this blog. Wat is ur opinion on Mahesan? Also can u share me the website links for above models apart from wethonline website.

      Thanks in advance

  3. expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/2013/05/04/basis00/swas/pr06/13051200_0400.gif

    looks gr8 ftm

  4. I sincerely hope this forecast from Vagaries is wrong

    A low pressure, BB-1, develops in the Southern Bay, SE off Sri Lanka around the 6th of May. Strengthened by various factors, the system will deepen into a depression by the 8th and a deep depression by the 9th/10th.
    Due to “high” resistance initially,BB-1 will not move beyond the 10N line till the 10th, and may just come upto East off Sri Lanka.
    Sri Lanka , east coast in particular, gets very heavy rains from the 7th of May…

    Very soon, thereafter, indications are there of a rapid North wards movement due to favourable conditions, and possibly deepen more on its track.

    Vagaries will monitor the strength of BB-1, now a Deep Depression and its track, as it moves past Chennai after the 11th of May.

  5. Ridge near mumbai is going to be a dominant n influential steering factor…. Til may 7th it is going to b strong ,in such case the system mite cross s.tn or lanka… Tats y rajesh sir hav mentioned like tat

  6. even cmc has changed its forecast

    expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/cmc/2013/05/03/basis12/swas/prec/13050912_0312.gif

  7. New updated forecast from Accuweather

    Monday – 38
    Tue & Wed – 39
    Thursday – 41
    Fri & Sat – 42
    Sun & Mon – 40

    Tuesday May 14th – a couple of showers Max 35

    summer returns from Wednesday 15th onwards

    will be get to follow Mahasen in the middle of our peak summer?

    • Descriptive Forecast
      Saturday

      Clear. High of 99F with a heat index of 115F. Breezy. Winds from the SSE at 10 to 20 mph.
      Saturday Night

      Clear in the evening, then partly cloudy. Low of 86F with a heat index of 102F. Breezy. Winds from the South at 15 to 20 mph.
      Sunday

      Partly cloudy. High of 95F with a heat index of 109F. Breezy. Winds from the SSE at 10 to 20 mph.
      Sunday Night

      Partly cloudy in the evening, then overcast. Low of 84F with a heat index of 102F. Winds from the SSE at 5 to 20 mph.
      Monday

      Overcast. High of 95F with a heat index of 106F. Winds from the SSE at 10 to 15 mph.
      Monday Night

      Mostly cloudy in the evening, then overcast. Low of 84F with a heat index of 99F. Winds from the SSE at 5 to 15 mph.
      Tuesday

      Overcast in the morning, then mostly cloudy. High of 93F with a heat index of 106F. Winds from the SSE at 5 to 15 mph.
      Tuesday Night

      Mostly cloudy. Low of 84F with a heat index of 99F. Winds from the SSE at 10 to 15 mph.
      Wednesday

      Overcast. High of 93F with a heat index of 104F. Winds from the SSE at 10 to 15 mph.
      Wednesday Night

      Overcast. Low of 86F with a heat index of 102F. Breezy. Winds from the SSE at 10 to 20 mph.
      Thursday

      Overcast. High of 97F with a heat index of 111F. Breezy. Winds from the SSE at 10 to 20 mph.
      Thursday Night

      Overcast. Low of 84F with a heat index of 104F. Winds from the SSE at 10 to 15 mph.
      Friday

      Overcast. High of 97F. Winds from the South at 5 to 15 mph shifting to the ESE in the afternoon.
      Friday Night

      Overcast. Low of 86F. Winds from the East at 5 to 15 mph.
      Saturday

      Overcast with a chance of a thunderstorm. High of 95F. Winds from the ESE at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 30%.
      Saturday Night

      Overcast with a chance of a thunderstorm. Low of 84F. Winds from the SE at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 60% with rainfall amounts near 0.3 in. possible.
      Sunday

      Overcast with thunderstorms. High of 93F. Winds from the SE at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 70% with rainfall amounts near 1.1 in. possible.
      Sunday Night

      Overcast with thunderstorms. Low of 84F. Winds from the South at 5 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70% with rainfall amounts near 2.8 in. possible.
      Monday

      Overcast with thunderstorms. High of 93F. Winds from the SSW at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70% with rainfall amounts near 2.3 in. possible.
      Monday Night

      Overcast with a chance of a thunderstorm. Low of 84F. Winds from the SSW at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 60% with rainfall amounts near 0.6 in. possible.

  8. Astro-Meteorologist S. Ramach­andran has predicted the possibility of cyclone hitting north TN and south AP between May 14 and May 18 due to planetary positions…..

  9. The track is still not clear, and I have indicated with a “dotted Line:” in yesterday’s map the track could be NW towards TN….international tracks have been swinging like a pendulum, and I have explained the 3 possibilities cited by many models today in vagaries….i.may be wrong, as i am not an expert like most of you..and thanks Selvafun for the honour…

  10. In fact, vagaries had predicted the low formation in MW-2 (on 25th April), indicating the movement of the MJO Eastwards and creating very favourable situations in the Bay…
    @selvafun: all have to be monitored and seen in the perspective..

  11. Getting darker at krishnagiri.
    Cool breeze and distant rumbles…
    Pleasant weather from 3 pm…
    It had rained moderately last night.

  12. @kea,
    Let the game begin
    Start some polls like place of landfall, amount of rain….
    I am pessimistic on this storm and I feel it would track nne and move to Myanmar.
    This would only increase our temp to 40+ levels.
    Have to wait till October for our turn.

  13. As kea had accepted, let me begin the contest.

    Place of landfall
    a) not in India
    b) bwn cuddalore and nagai
    c) bwn nellore and cuddalore
    d) bwn nellore and vizag
    e) odisha

    My view is (a)

  14. Hello all bloggers. Nice to be back here after a longime. But of course i have been a passive watcher from Newyork. How i miss chennai…
    Congrats to kea and others to making it to the headlines.

    I feel Mahesen would follow the path of the 1990 May super cyclone that crossed Machilipatnam.
    Chennai got intense rains on May 7th and 8th. We received 16 cms of rains in Just 2 hours and wind speed touched 140 Km/h.
    In machilipatnam winds speed were up to 230 Km/h

    This storm came as close as 150 kms east of chennai and then headed north to hit Machilipatnam.

    Initially they were maintaining that this storm would cross near nagai, then cuddalore and chennai, then chennai and nellore and later it hit machilipatnam.

  15. Models are expecting the Mid level high in arabian sea to weaken around 11 which would make the storm to move in a more west -NW direction after May 10 or 11.

  16. do we have any recorded history of cyclones striking orissa or north coastal AP in may…rhe first half of may….

    I have never seen a system hitting orissa in May.
    Either these system head to myanmror bangadesh wb coast.
    Never seen one hot orissa or N,AP

  17. Y every1 ignoring chennai for the point of landfall… Lol.. Imd n jtwc wil giv the avg track tat wil b close to chennai -nellore….still long way to go….

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