A disturbance persist in east central Arabian sea off coast of Karnataka and it is expected to develop into a low pressure in the next 48 hours. This disturbance remains in a area of favorable wind shear due to the presence of an upper anticyclone positioned over it Sea surface temperature looks favorable,with a threat of dry air which would inhibit any significant development. Computer models are showing some slow development of this system as it moves westward in the coming days. Widespread heavy rain is likely for coastaland South Interior parts of Karnataka due to this system. Isolated Thunderstorms are expected for the north and central TN coast, while Interior TN would be getting widespread heavy thunderstorms.
Heavy rainfall districts:
Coimbatore, Salem, Erode, Karur, Dindugul, Salem ,Ghats along Nilgiris, Dharmapuri and Krishnagiri.
Moderate rainfall districts:
Thiruvanamalai, Vellore, Villupuram and South TN.
City Forecast
Chennai : city will see max temperature moving closer to 31C. Rains are likely in the afternoon time.
Coimbatore : Max temperature will be around 30C.Thunderstorms can be expected during evening/night.
Madurai : City will be pleasant as the max temperature will be inching close to 29C. Sky will be cloudy with a high Probability of thunderstorm during evening/night.
Vellore : Temperature will be around 30C.Chance of rain is high during evening hours.
Trichy : Thunderstorm are likely during later part of day with temperature settling close to 32C.
KeaWeather Archives 
Good morning to All
Cyclone Chapala Made Landfall!
But An other LPA off the coast of Karnataka persists. 😦
This NEM benifitiing Arabian Countries.
Is the unusual behavior off Arabian sea a result of below par SWM flows? My theory is that ocean temperatures are above normal because of extremely low SWM flows.
Lots of pop ups in the Bay. If lucky some areas might get aomething
The winds are still westerly.
gm gys 😉 .now i think problem solved ;).of resource limited
Good morning. .
The very severe cyclone “Chapala” is expected to cross south Yemen coast today.
An upper air circulation is located over east central Arabian sea off coastal Karnataka 3.1 KM above sea level. This is inducing a low pressure area in that region in 24 hours . Another upper air circulation is persisted over north Andhra pradesh coast 2.1 km above sea level.Due to the above factors,more rain is expected in coastal Kerala,Coastal Karnataka,North Tamilnadu,Western interior Tamilnadu,South Tamilnadu and North coastal Tamilnadu.
Parts of North Chennai received rain yesterday. More rain is expected in Chennai and north interior Tamilnadu in coming days.
Chennai will be cloudy today and few spells are expected in day time.
Any one pls help me how to measure a daily rainfall ? Because my place 6 km south chidambaram & 6 km west kollidam so please tell me 1 simple method
Circular dabba/ cup/ bottle (with flat bottom) and scale!
Clear sky in Kodaikanal and some Clouds over the hills. No mist today morning
Diwali pattasu vedikka mudiyuma ?
Is Stanley Reservoir likely to receive heavy inflows?
Just joined this group. Excited.
Welcome to KEA Weather Blog
Thank you
Welcome to the club!
When winds will change to Easterly any idea
😙😙😙😙😙
I think by tomo as per windyty
Fully in 2 days!
😵😵😵😵😲😲😲😲😲
Welcome!!
oh great Madampakkam strength getting increased and we have one of the best expert in this blog is from Madambakkam
Nov 03 2015 : The Times of India (Chennai)
Wet spell in city to continue for next three days Chennai: TIMES NEWS NETWORK
The state is facing a rain fall deficit of 17% and Chennai a deficit of 19%.
———————————————————————————————
The northeas monsoon, which arrive last week, will continue t bring moderate rainfal over the next few days, th Met office said on Monday.
Between 8.30am on Sun day and 8.30am on Monday Nungambakkam recorde 27.5mm of rainfall and Mee nambakkam, 55.7mm. Th maximum temperature was 31°C.
“Offshore troughs alon the coast of Bay of Benga will continue to bring rain to the city ,“ Regional Meteorological Centre deputy di rector general S B Thamp said.
The Met office has fore cast the next three days to b generally cloudy with th possibility of rain or thunderstorms. The maximum temperature is likely to re main around 30°C.
The state is facing a rain fall deficit of 17% and Chen nai a deficit of 19%.
Former regional meteor ological centre deputy di rector general Y E A Raj sai the deficit could be wipe out in a week if the onset o monsoon is sustained. “Dy namic weather models indicate Tamil Nadu will have moderate rainfall over the next week,“ he said.
The city’s reservoirs are close to empty but water resource managers have estimated that spells of intense rainfall with an average rainfall of 5cm a day could raise their levels.
On Monday , Poondi Lake received 17mm of rainfall, Cholavaram Lake, 32mm, Red Hills Lake, 24mm, and Chembarambakkam Lake, 22mm. The combined storage was 355mcft against a capacity of 11,000 mcft. The city has received 240mm rainfall against a normal of 290mm. The northeast monsoon brings the city around 800mm rainfall of the annual 1,200mm it receives.
Flash..alert….Master wave MJO already started its action at BOB (yellow circle).
Next system will take genesis most probably at 90E/7N (red circle). Its track was indicated in “white line”
MJO and next system: http://s1.postimg.org/v4noil5xb/wm5ir.gif
By tomorrow there will be two vortexes embbeded in a trough in s bay. One in s .c bay and one in s.Andaman sea
SC-BOB’s will dominate and finally emerge as our beloved system 😉
:)))
Rao sir but in this map landfall is shown at near Chennai. How and what ingredients favor this system.
MJO at phase 2. Decrease in IOD and increase in SOI. Exceptional TCHP. All these favourable factors will strengthen our system to intensify to a tropical storm to travel in W/NW direction towards NTN (expecting some change in both GFS and ECMWF coming runs).
GFS update!
OMG..CAP??
Is this the next one to come after what ECMWF projected in its last run.
Both GFS and ECMWF differ in timing of next system formation and its intensity. Let’s see who will blink first👍
GFS expecting CAP landfall and ECMWF expecting CTN landfall. So let it be in between CTN and CAP, that is NTN/SAP👍😆
🙆🙆
How can CTN and CAP LF be equated to NTN and SAP
Now very fog and less visibility…. Looks like winter season
Good morning.
2 ARB cyclones in 1 run, 1 system and 1 easterly wave hitting TN in the same run. Wow
Ecmwf consistently maintains a system hitting us
Where is 2 cyclones in arb sea I can see only one
Any chance of rain tody ?
Awesome rains in Bangalore..city has recorded 95mm..
OMG.. That spell towards the west reached overnight ? It seemed to be weakening!
Yeah..storm came from sw.
NORTH-EASTERN MONSOON LASHES CITY
Geeta Agnihotri, director-in-charge, Meteorological Centre, Regional Observatory in Bengaluru, said, “Monday’s rainfall is due to the onset of north-east monsoon along the Tamil Nadu coast over Bay of Bengal on October 28. Following the change in the weather pattern, the north-east winds will be sweeping over the Bay of Bengal and cause rainfall all along the eastern coast and South Interior Karnataka. The trend is likely to continue till mid-November or it may also continue for the entire month. Besides Bengaluru, adjoining districts too will witness light to moderate rainfall.”
Bengaluru East gets flooded
The showers lasting more than two-hours on Monday evening resulted in flash floods in many parts of the city. Areas in Bengaluru East division witnessed heavy rains. Sources from the Karnataka State Natural Disaster Monitoring Centre revealed that Sampangiram Nagar and Pulakeshinagar received the maximum rainfall. “While the Sampangiram Nagar measured 89.5 mm of rain, Pulakeshinagar witnessed 80 mm rainfall. Similarly, Hoysalanagar witnessed 62 mm; and KR Puram witnessed 35 mm rainfall. HAL airport received 30 mm rainfall till evening on Monday,” a senior officer said.
http://www.bangaloremirror.com/bangalore/others/North-eastern-monsoon-lashes-city/articleshow/49636600.cms
Good morning
Chapala is gone out of control, LPA is moved to Arabian sea…..
Any Good news for chennaite?
Morning rains to return in a couple of days
Rains will be back on Thursday/ Friday?
yes, 4th morning will see an increase in action
If I am not mistaken tomorrow is 4th morning
I thought today is 4th!
Glorious Sunny Day in Kodaikanal with temperature around 18°C. Really love this Nature good day for taking pics today. Past 2 days it was misty and Rains and it isn’t clear to take snaps of the mountain view with clouds. Have taken nearly 100’s of images will post later after my return to Chennai
Very lucky to get a sunny day at Kodai in Nov.Enjoy your stay.Hows the lake?Hope they are maintaining it well
Nagai on a four year high – The Indian Express
Srilanka battered
Katunayake 121
Trincomalee 111
Anuradapura 105
Mattakalappu 99 mm @5.30
Bangalore 95
Honavar 48
Trichy 29mm @5.30
Chapala making mayhem in Yemen
Please keep all your RGs ready by mid of this week onwards 🙂
Mid of week is starting tomorrow
Tomorrow will be starting point 🙂 http://earth.nullschool.net/#2015/11/05/0000Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/orthographic=84.84,13.51,1367
I feel today evening or tonight.
if this happen i will put 1 kg sugar in your mouth.
Good morning!
Chapala!
Eye is yet to cross the land
Yes it is yet to cross the land
Chapala has made lf near al mukkala
It is Yemen or oman
Yemen.. Likely to dissipate completely in few hrs time
Wth ecmwf shows 93b as a depression /marginal tc again taking similar track to chapala, and one more circulation after crossing tn developing in arabian sea
How can AS basin host cyclone after cyclone without any issues? Whereas we are struggling for one.
The conditions are better in the AS now.
Jon tamilnadu system confirmed
Jon or Jan ?
How can it happen 93b struggled in Bob but in Arabian Sea every disturbance is strengthening easily to u a system any specific reason
High Nino 3.4 SSTs (Elnino-modoki variation) will favour Arabian systems more.
TS near nellore will it reach coast????
Nope. Fresh one has to form north of Nellore.
Kkk
They are moving parallel to the coast from North to South.
Nellore slightly missed it….kk let new one form north of nellore
Few days back u said that this variation will change into classical one when it is expected to happen and will that favour bob
Whether it’s classical or non-classical, master wave MJO started its action at BOB. Let’s hope for the best.
K sir thank u
Do u expect a full fledged cyclone?
Gokul said…sea’s thermal energy is abundant there at this time of the year
Is Bob lagging in thermal energy and after chappala also does the thermal energy is not lost
Lol finally GFS follows ECMWF😎
Shows a cyclone making Landfall in CAP. I’m 100% sure they’ll finally show landfall in C/NTN.
So yes diwali system is confirmed.
How CAP land fall means it will change to tamilnadu
Don’t trust GFS with cyclones. ECMWF king of cyclonesz
The GFS system is not for Diwali!
How will a depression stay off the coast for more than 3/4 days?
You know they are bluffing.
Why can’t it stay near the coast?
Wml stayed for 8 days… Oct 2013 near nap
Depression can’t stay for that long in a single place.
Only 5 knots difference pa…possible there for max 4-5 days
Even cyclones can stay in a single place for few days. This will possibly result in the upwelling process. The sst decreases around several miles from the storm due to strong surface winds. This will more or less weaken the cyclone and might even dissipate it in the sea itself.
It’s just little north of ongole, South of machillipatnam
Chapala on the verge of making landfall. It’s currenly a cat-1 storm with speed of about 140-150km/hr.
Expected to weaken drastically as it makes landfall.
It already made landfall!
Nope making landfall.
Tropical cyclone activity over the Indian Ocean
– Tropical cyclone activity moved from the Pacific to the Indian Ocean and Arabian Sea .
– Very severe cyclonic storm Chapala, is currently impacting Yemen.
Strong El Niño and positive Indian Ocean Dipole persist
– A strong El Niño in the Pacific and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole are dominating the climate of countries bordering the Pacific and Indian oceans.
– Typically, this climatic scenario produces rainfall deficiencies for much of tropical Australia and a later-than-usual commencement of the northern monsoon.
India in 1947
any relevance to our upcoming system? 😛
Yes. Upto n.ap its considered as chennai LF
lol
Even western ghats also belongs to us
No. It was travancore samasthanam
Yes interesting post to understand history
super ji. thanks for the support
All your posts has puzzle into it, so purinjavan pista👍👍
Shankaran is talking about unrest in India I guess,
system itself not relevant to tn
see the active comments for this irrelevant post. this will give energy
Some of the water conflicts would not have happened with this map
Entire western ghats ah apadiyea pudingitu poitaanunga paavinga 😦
There was no Bangladesh .. It should be East Bengal!
strong eaterlies started pushing into SL and also nagai dist
Only in SL!
check satellite and radar
http://www.weatheronline.in/weather/satellite/India/India/Infraredcolor.htm
See here
http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/850hPa/orthographic=82.60,11.46,3000
thats not real time.. just fyi
near real time 3 hr lag!
dont follow that
No Need to see both the link… Lets look up the sky
easterlies are almost here in chennai as well.. ground report
What about Sky Report . . .
Not in lower levels.
no.. westerlies gone completely
Check radar VVP.
If u post pondy instead of nagai he might have accepted..unfortunately u posted as nagai….
Lol…good point
Lol
No, I wouldn’t have accepted!
places like adiramaptinam,kodikarai already getting rains from east as per radar
I don’t see any proper easterlies setting in today!
i told only nagai dist..
Even in Nagai!
its already set in over parts of nagai.. by tomo it might reach most parts of coastal tn
gfs expects massive rains for coastal TN from 7th
Work has to be completed on the two desalination plants so that the city is not dependent on the vagaries of rain gods.But i don’t think this will be done in the next 2-3 years. Only then we can enjoy the monsoons without pressure.
the Govts in TN ( Past and Now) are busy in important things like increasing the TASMAC shops, targets etc, they wont do this even after 5 years
Also elections are round the corner. Sutham!
Desalinated water is not good for health rain water is better
Bangalore crossed 100cms for the year yesterday(108cms now). Though it was expected to cross this magical mark last month itself, one of the worst October stopped it from doing so. With 15 to 20cms expected till end of the year, looks good to settle close to 130cms.
Average rainfall in Bangalore seems to increase over the years and Nunga is coming down .
Yes, average is 95cms, but it records 10 to 20cms more than that in recent years.
south bangalore begur and gottigere has crossed 10 cm mark during the month of September itself.
SW Bangalore and NW Bangalore had a terrific year. South Bangalore had a decent year whereas East Bangalore got less rains than others.
A new villain has formed near ongole and mpt UAC rip#NEM2015
Lol.. too early to judge
You are getting ahead of yourself with that hash tag!
we will have a normal NEM for Chennai. Question is can it enter excess category like south TN.
Really doubtful. I dont think so at all.I will be content with about 130-140 cm
Guys seriously once old villain dies new villain forms immediately forms pavam ba namma nem
Lol
Good morning
I’m expecting easterlies to return today
Good News
Wow stunning revelation from jupi 😂😂
Rofl 😂 😂 😂
Cholavaram storage until now is 0% inspite of few spells in the past few days, gross mismanagement and encroachment made the things still worse, nature will never cheat or at least will do it’s minimum , but ………
Encroachment must very strictly removed
OMG….Heavy downpours in Al makala and surrounding areas….seems some places already received above 250 mm…
I dont think those regions will rainguages…usually it wont rain there…
Places towards aden have annual rain less than 10 mm
ECMWF expects a twin low to form tomorrow in Bay
At least a minimal cyclone is a must now – we do not have whole year of NEM
Latest GEM model run sticks with ECMWF. Cyclone crossing Nagai. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2015110300/gem_mslp_pwat_ind_23.png
Intensity. Increasing in each run
Diwali system confirm
This is it – Jupi, there could be two systems. One crossing Nagai on 08th and other one between Chennai and SAP on 15th!
Though during the last 4 days, we get some useful showers, but still the NEM pattern of rainfall seems to be absent. UACS in different latitudes & arabian system to a certain extent did not allow the nearby bay of bengal conducive to normal NEM pattern. This has caused not good widespread rainfall across states. November is a very crucial month and we need lot of rains. big anxiety and our IMD people are also not that much confident, as unwanted arabian system turns against bay of bengal.
SS
They have already said that NEM will be above normal. South TN will be having Excess rainfall
Still central india recording 36-37 c in some places..
No respite for mumbai too…
Normal – 32 c recording -36 c…
Same time, minimum temperature gradually falling in north india.
Delhi with 17 c
JMA also expects the same
Expects Diwali system
Yes
It ll.not behave like 93 b right???
Yes totally different from 93B
Rains on cards even before system forms too..
From today strong Easterlies pushing into our coast
Hmm, we can feel that from today afternoon or evening onwards
Change in winds likely too
My Megh folder is getting crowded now : )
what is megh ? nxt system nme ahh.
Yes
super nme 😉
Perfect scenario!
Wow good model consensus! NAVGEM shows a depression over SC BOB
The area in south Andaman Sea, north of Sumatra and the adjoining Gulf of Siam has started showing signs of genesis. Needs continuous monitoring.
Yes models expecting it to develop into a significant system
Yeah Jupi
“Delay is the deadliest form of denial” – let it come as fast as possible without showing any delaying tactics and either fizzling or going to Arabian sea
what is wind pattern at chennai. any change compared to yesterday. still easterlies not fully back. but some change we notice compared to yesterday.
ss
Clouds coming from east slowly
Easterlies will return only by tomorrow
I still remember Mr.Ramanan on TV saying “Vangakkadalil uruvagiyulla kaatrazhutha thazhvu mandalam melum valuvadaindhu…chennai kum nellore kum idaya karayai kadakkakoodum.chennayil pala idangazhil ganatha mazhaiyum oru iru idangazhil miga ganatha mazhaiyum peyyakkoodum.meenavargal kadalukku chella vendam…. ..” Good ol’ days! Will i hear it anytime this year?
Yes.
Ull hear those wrds frm Monday
things going acording to script. 😉
Long long ago once upon a time……..
This is one my ‘core’ childhood memories
Older generation are blessed in this way : )
last time we heard it during Thane!
last time ive heard during nilam 😉
you can hear no of times, but it will not materialise
is there any cyclone which made landfall on kerela or karnataka?
No
Low VWS persists as of now in the region of watch.
Arb or bob?
bob .south andaman sea
Why one should watch for Villain’s progress?! Let it go to hell -Oman or Yemen : )
It’ll weaken drastically as it nears the coast as per many models.
You mean the arb system?
Yes..chapala
No 93B
Yes 93B
Bob near S.Andaman Sea
Bangalore and K’taka topper Sampangiramnagar(1) – 135.5mm
radar is quite clear – except for east of nellore in open sea. winds need to strengthen to bring showers for chennai. but position can change soon.
ss
Our former 93 B is set to ventilate freely under an upper level anticyclone that is seen overhead. Divergence has increased
It should be named as Brutus!
Lol..
It has given rain throughout the southern peninsula.
With its track looking like that of Chapala, Yemen must be saying “You too Brutus!”
Dark clouds over nellore
Happy for you
BREAKING NEWS!
Latest GFS brings a depression close to TN coast!
Too late
Yes thats what I was thinking about!
From CAP got it down to CTN.
Now they’ll change the time frame.
All models except GFS showing the system within 144hrs
One on 8th and another on 15th – let both be correct, and we can have weekly cyclones!
Haha yes why not😍
Please see the dates of the previous one to that this one -all on 03rd Nov 00z
This is the current GFS run.
Then what Jupi posted is not current one – shows 00z at 03 Nov!
lol iam also in dream of tht nxt week semister starting hope it postpond
Let your exams be postponed to Jan16 : ) : ) : )
Me too.
all the bst 😉
Landfall in NTN coast as per GFS!!!
Good
Y these models ..????need to track cyclones??? ….
Super 🙂 we need little intensification 🙂
Depression status enough…path should not move
i think it will be small and cute system 😉
a cute CAT 1
Emwcf run in few minutes.. Very interesting!!
Yes its gonna be a thrill to watch
Enna thrill? Different dates with similar tracks???? 😦
Enna*
Lol
Emwcf showing system on 9 th whereas gfs telling on 15th…
massive gap between thm .thy both never falls in sme line ;(.
This time they fall on same line…i mean the track 🙂 only the dates are diff.
😉 😉 ;(
Rombha confusion madira irukku 😦 😦
i believe more in ecmwf than gfs, becas later gfs falls with ecmwf , this is wat happening from last year
This happens every year actually
but somebdy tell tht ecmwf fails to forecast in our basin wheres gfs forecst bettr . but i belive in the king “ecmwf”
All are Correct, I think there are two systems – not joking
Me too same feeling!
We have to wait and see – the time gap can’t be that much
Then it’s bonus😆
may be 2 diff systems they are referring to..
No sundar
haha 😉
yes 2 systems.. gfs also shows nov 7th system but a weaker one
ECMWF will come true.
GFS Asusual started to blabberz
Lol spot on
As of now depression sure shot,named system still doubtful
Naming ceremony will be there. It’s for sure 🙂
As I said depends on IMD’s mood.😂
Like Helen and Lehar……two back to back forming??
Nalla vaya vekuringa😜
Heyyyy.. I’m saying that for example.. Omg example ku kooda ap ah solla koodatha pola
Yes obviously 😜
Hope one system come to AP also
like nilam 😉
South ap ok…. Not for above machillipatnam
Ok sir….
Where do u live now!?
Hyderabad
cme to chennai nxt two week to enjoy rain, winds and diwali 😉
Yes need to that
Guess what it is?
Looks like some rope!
It is called Ronau – name of the next system after Megh : )
eye test 😉
All I can say is “Dhamaka week ahead”😂😂
can anyone please provide me the EMWCF forecast link. I am trying this link but it fails to load. is it paid one?
http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=swas&MODELL=ecmwf&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=prec&HH=24&ARCHIV=0&ZOOM=0&PERIOD=&WMO=
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf®ion=ind&pkg=uv850_vort&runtime=2015110300&fh=24&xpos=0&ypos=223
Thanks 🙂
Welcome.
LPA to form within the next 48 hours as per ECMWF.
Omg
Wow! 🙂
Good 🙂
super
Most of the models predicting weak systems for Diwali 😦
You want a cyclone is it?
a WMLPA would be fine.
Depression is more than enough to produce heavy rains.
Wow.
Close to depression already…
Yes better organized than previous runs.
Interesting…
Looks far better than previous run.
Yeah, but good if LF is moved up.
Why?
For chennai.
Oh apoo ok.
South tn landfall likely then
we now need some on and off showers at least make bore-wells some recharge. for the past 30 hours not even drizzling even one centimeter is enough on a daily basis, till we get a full pledged system which can bring water alone.
ss
Well organised.
Yemen is so lucky again….another system expected for them
Omg…po pa
Atchu..there wont be much damage from that system…no need to worry
Won’t intensify.
it’ll weaken drastically before it reaches coast.
Hope so…
sriharikota-nellore belt going to get showers soon. radar back in action.ss
Cyclone Bros, inthavaati no issues from WD?
lol
Not much as seen in forecast.
Thanks gts
Ur welcome..
Tirumayam 8
Rameswaram melur, Nagapattinam 5cm
Nagappatinam back to its best!
Hello friends how r u all?
steve?
No am antony past 3years am following our beloved blog
ok
Marc antony
Ya ur correct. Do u want to know my full name?
short name tony is fine, like tony greg
Long name antony johnson Joseph raj.
all are ok except cyclones
Everyone expecting cyclone. for sure we ll host one cyclone in the name of kea
Just recalling 1995 – 2k… 3 – 4 days of continuous moderate to heavy rain on NEM season, we used to play kallanga, dhayam for entertainment… my father prepared pori arisi, varutha ground nut etc for snacks. Visited our villlage lakes 2-3 times a day to check the inflow amt of water. Nowadays seeing 1-2hrs of continues rain itself kuthirai kombu 😦
Very chill here
Open the bottle
Its pretty hot outside. Can we expect rains later in the evening?
OMG almost a TC.
Which CAT??? 1,2,3,4,5???
0.5
Might be lf at ctn…
Bro its raining here..akkkada????
why all clouds moving from NW to SE during the NEM.. unusual active arabian sea causing this year monsoon failure.. Mother nature only knows what next in plate. Scortching sun during nov. huh
It’ll change to easterlies soon.
weather behaves as if it is peak SWM period.. certainly chennai latitude has some global warming effect.
Current track from ECMWF looks like JAL’s track!
Pretty interesting.
Dont give false hope about system.. All the time it goes to AP and orsissa
lol
Tamilnadu. Stands no.3 in cyclone crossing…. Don’t say all the times.. Check data
There’s no rain in the ground and people in ap/TN die because no water.. Check data
What u told before.. What u r saying now
as per ecmwf if system becomes a cyclone it has chance for rapid intensification as we expected before and happend in chappala system during this elnino year
Cat-1 crossing CTN coast!!!
northern bands for us
Jal and 1994 cyclone analogous to the expected.
Yes exactly..
Both model failed last time
This time it may be more good.
How much are you confidence level?
With such consistency it can be said some 70 % sure.
little bit north compare to previous run
Cyclone crossing south of Cuddalore