More Rain expected due to Trough & UAC

Rainfall occurred at many places over coastal Tamil Nadu including Chennai city. The upper air trough in the easterlies from South-West to West- Central Bay of Bengal extending upto 2.1 KM above sea level persists. The upper air circulation over Sri Lanka & Adjoining Comorin area extending upto 4.5 KM above mean sea level also persists. This would bring tropical downpours at most places over Kerala and many places over Coastal Tamil Nadu, parts of Interior & South Tamil Nadu and Puducherry. Chennai city will be welcomed with early morning showers and few scattered spells during the day.
wpid-ezindia1_day2.pngsector-irc
A western disturbance would affect eastern Himalayan region from 2nd November onwards.
Rain would occur at few places over coastal Andhra Pradesh, Coastal Karnataka, Telangana & Rayalaseema, Sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Arunachal Pradesh, Sikkim, Bihar, Gangetic West Bengal and Odisha. Dry weather would prevail over rest of the country.

Chennai – Early morning showers and few spells of rain in day time over many parts of city with Max Temp of 32c
Vellore – Fair and cloudy weather with a thunderstorm in the afternoon. Max temperature may touch 32c
Madurai – Mostly cloudy conditions will prevail. Max temperature may touch 32c
Trichy – Light fog in the morning. Thundershower possible in day/evening. Max Temperature would be around 32c
Coimbatore – Thundershower possible in the evening over parts of city. Mercury may touch 33c

North East Monsoon
The Great Bhola cyclone remains the deadliest tropical cyclone ever recorded and one of the deadliest natural disasters in modern times. Nearly 500,000 people lost their lives in the storm, primarily as a result of the storm surge that flooded much of the low-lying islands of the Ganges Delta. The cyclone formed over the central Bay of Bengal on 8th November ,1970 and traveled north, intensifying as it did so. It reached its peak with winds of 185 km/h (115 mph) on November 11, and made landfall on the coast of Bangladesh the following afternoon.

3,156 thoughts on “More Rain expected due to Trough & UAC

  1. Don’t know how many of you read this post from Selva Fun posted late last night. One of his best, if not the best one from him in the recent past. His observations n in depth study really baffles me . Many a times I’ve felt that he is slightly different from others with his deep insights and assessments. Kudos Zen..

  2. More Than 5cm Of Rain Recorded; Areas In North Chennai, T Nagar Flooded

    Regional meteorological centre deputy director general S Thampi said the rain was due to upper air circulation over the Bay of Bengal and was expect ed to continue over the next 2-3 days. The temperature may remain below 30 de grees Celsius over the next week.

    http://epaperbeta.timesofindia.com/Article.aspx?eid=31807&articlexml=INFRA-EFFECTIVE-Rain-hits-city-life-but-only-01112015004054

  3. There won’t be any rains from today onwards as I hinted yesterday. Rains will take a break till the next BOB system targets us. Till then had good discussions 👍http://www.weatheronline.in/weather/satellite/India/India/Infraredcolor.htm

  4. Forget about newspaper clippings and the forecast given in those papers. As per latest developments there will be very clear skies without rains over Chennai during next 1-2 days. Be prepared for sultry weather just a typical of SWM-season. For Chennai to get cool, cloudy and rainy days, first winds has to turn E/NE. Unfortunately it will take some time to turn winds into E/NE mode.

  5. I expect some system by Nov end or Dec 1st week hitting CTN giving bountiful rains to Chennai..Diwali system is not for us..may be we will get light rains from Diwali system

  6. It looks our Rain God showing some mercy on us by thinking we can not sustain more heavier rains. So giving us only 50-60 mm rains. So we need to request authorities to expand our drainage capacity to withstand 600 mm rains. Then only we can request rain God for more rains👍😆

  7. JTWC 8.30 update on Chapala.

    010300Z POSITION NEAR 13.6N 56.0E.
    TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04A (CHAPALA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 431 NM
    SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MASIRAH ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
    OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
    IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAGGED 06-NM EYE SURROUNDED BY A DEEP CONVECTIVE
    CORE WITH SPIRAL BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. THE CURRENT
    POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE POSITION.
    THE INTENSITY REMAINS AT 115 KNOTS BASED ON AN UNCHANGED CONVECTIVE
    STRUCTURE AND IS SUPPORTED BY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
    THAT REMAIN AT T6.0 (115 KNOTS) FROM ALL AGENCIES. ENVIRONMENTAL
    CONDITIONS REMAIN MOSTLY FAVORABLE WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
    STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER LOOP
    AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR WRAPPING INTO THE
    CIRCULATION. TC 04A IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
    DEEP LAYERED SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THE CYCLONE WILL
    CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD AND MAKE LANDFALL OVER YEMEN JUST BEFORE
    TAU 48. THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS DRY AIR CONTINUES TO
    OFFSET THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. TC CHAPALA WILL
    RAPIDLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INLAND OVER RUGGED TERRAIN, LEADING TO
    ITS COMPLETE DISSIPATION BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. DYNAMIC
    MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WHICH PROVIDES HIGH
    CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
    010000Z IS 30 FEET.

  8. Heavy North East Monsoon rains in Visakhapatanam

    Rainfall till 8 :00 am today
    ===================================

    Pendurti Vizag – 187 mm
    Gajuwaka Vizag town – 146 mm
    Bheemunipatnam – 140 mm
    Anandapuram – 130 mm
    Vizag City – 130 mm

  9. we can see only coastal regions of Vizag district battered

    Nov started with bang…1500 percent above normal

    Vizag city crossed 1100 mm

    Pendurty – 1400 mm

  10. Definitely we may see ts development in few hrs near tvmalai,salem extending northeast or ts might extend from north into s.ap/north tn..

  11. As per NGFS Forecasts for 10th Nov. the 200 hPa ridge line in Bay falls at 15 N approximately.
    Associated Upper Level Anticyclone is expected to stay near climatological mean position.

  12. Hope the circulation near vizag and bengal dissipate as early as possible. otherwise our NEM will be affected for sure.

  13. i think no rains are possible for chennai. radar looks crystal clear and the circulation near VIzag is pulling moist easterly winds towards itself. WTH

  14. Ramnad new bus stand after good spell…. Second image, Due to blind visibility in yesterday rains, Engg Coll bus driver parked it over rain water filled land near ramnad ECR highway …

  15. Yesterday nobody expected/ predicted the kind of rain we had in many parts of chennai. In fact many were frustrated as if it was end of NEM. What happened later was gr8 and pleasant and improved /changed the moods of KEAians. Let us savour the moment and wait for more of such spells.in between let us have experts view on various models without unduly perturbed, if negative.
    HAPPY NEM DAYS

  16. Even nature knows apathy of Chennai, and hence it always gives time for water to recede from the roads/flooded areas and then it will strike again

    • Akshay, my prayers for Nellore to get good rains this NEM.. I’m aware, since 2012, neither SWM nor NEM has helped the rice bowl of AP..

  17. Wind direction supporting north andhra and south tamilnadu very much…
    Otherwise ntn/sap might get heavy rains….
    Due to convex shape, both stn and nap ll get heavy rains

  18. Weather Underground meteorologist Jeff Masters wrote on Saturday night that “Chapala’s southward track will make it only the second tropical cyclone recorded near the mouth of the Gulf of Aden”.

    “The adjustment in Chapala’s track could have major implications for Yemen, as it brings the centre closer to [Mukalla], a busy port and Yemen’s fifth-largest city,” he said.

    “As it moves ashore, Chapala will slam into steep mountains near the coast, boosting its potential to dump several years’ worth of rain in just a day or two.”

  19. In October 2011 Pondicherry faced a huge deluge on Diwali day. I was there in my uncles flat he bought crackers but dint burst due to.floods. Diwali day it rained in Pondicherry that 2011

  20. Gfs is not expecting any system like ecmwf rather it’s just expecting a weaker lpa moving inland through sri Lanka

  21. BADIN, Pakistan, Oct 20 (Thomson Reuters Foundation) – Mir Muhammad’s family had reason to celebrate: after the harvest of their rice crop, they were planning to throw a wedding.

    But then flash floods hit their three-hectare farm, washing away the family’s sole source of income and their dreams of the big day.

    This was the scene played out on the makeshift stage of an open-air theatre in Badin district of Pakistan’s Sindh province – a region, like many others in Pakistan, trying to find ways to better understand and deal with worsening climate change impacts.

    “Nature has destroyed all our plans,” lamented Zuleikha Bibi, who played Muhammad’s mother in the production. “We were preparing for the wedding of our eldest son, but the flood has turned all our happiness into mourning.”

    An audience of over a hundred men, women and children from Badin’s fishing and farming communities watched as the actress wiped away her pretend tears. Then they listened, engrossed, as a singer in traditional Sindhi dress sang about the sufferings of poor people in the region.

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