The Upper Air Cyclonic Circulation (UAC) off the Sri Lankan coast continues to bring rains to coastal areas of TN. Heavy rains are likely to pound most places in Tamilnadu and Pondicherry over the next few days. Interior parts of TN will see some moderate to heavy rains in the coming days. Another easterly wave is a likely event after 5th November. The Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm Chapala is expected to intensify into a possible Super Cyclone and move westwards towards North Yemen and adjoining Oman coast in a few days time.
Heavy to very heavy rainfall districts:
Chennai, Cuddalore, Karaikal, Tuticorin, Ramanathapuram, Kanyakumari
Light to Moderate rainfall districts:
Kanchipuram, Tiruvallur, Tirunelveli, Namakkal, Madurai
City forecasts:
Chennai – ‘Detroit of India’ will see moderate to rather heavy rainfall in isolated places with formation of more cumulus clouds through the day. Maximum Temperature would be around 32c
Vellore – Maximum Temperature around 33c. Cloudy skies will prevail. Likely to see a one or two thunderstorm development.
Madurai – Maximum Temperature would be around 32c. Moderate Rain expected in this region.
Tiruchirappalli – Temperature to remain around 31c with some scattered falls.
Coimbatore – City may see a comfortable temperature in the vicinity of 30c with scattered clouds. Light rain may not be ruled out.
KeaWeather Archives 
Radar looking active, hopefully we get some good showers during the day
Nothing inside 50km
Hi Kea sir does the wind flow is good to bring the Strom’s? I think wind is not supporting
Nothing is coming towards Chennai at this moment.
For ever nothing is coming why only this moment. Be confident that nothing will come like me
The Strom’s at East of chennai is moving NE, correct me if I am wrong
All storms are moving from South to North now
Overnight showers here
My rg recorded 7mm
Total this month 147mm
This has been a strange NEM… Will see if these storms hit the coast ever??
Nope.
Now moderate rain with wind in past 15mins
Literally there are no winds to steer these clouds towards coast from any direction. I dont see much rain in the next 12 hours.Maybe a few mm
I think it may continue till nov5 we will be dry
gud morning blogers 😉
Now very heavy rain
enjoyy
Delta getting pounded
Chapala lost the golden chance to become a super cyclone after Gonu-2007. After staying at cat.4 for quite some time today it will start weaken rapidly before making final landfall. Some good relief for Yemen/Oman coasts.
Still wind direction not supportive…
Heavy to very heavy bands in sea…
Omg
Trivandrum battered 109mm 😦
Karaikal getting battered
Chidambarm pounded rain
According to NET not looks good for next 2-3hrs for Rains in Chennai. No cumulus clouds around and only stratiform clouds covered entire Eastern Horizon
Convection still not tilting in favour of us. http://www.weatheronline.in/weather/satellite/India/India/Infraredcolor.htm
There is no strong East/SE winds still in this oct. E/SE winds favours much for coastal tamilnadu with heavy rains
Kk dist pounded
Killiyoor 107
Tiruvattar 55
Nagapattinam 42 mm
tuty dist started receiving hvy rains now including tiruchendur
Karaikal data?
5mm till 5.30
Only 5mm 😦
Oh ,Those 2 are getting, so Chennai must see some action soon.
oh your words comes through
@jon_adam:disqus Good morning are you posting from Chennai or… I thought even Tanjore got fairly good rains
Morning i m in chennai oly not mch data frm tanjore atm
Just read somewhere even Mettur got some good inflow
S hvy rains in catchment areas of ktk 2days bak even mysore got around 60mm
Expecting more rains in stn as winds turn southerly
Winds from southerly all over Tamilnadu?
Isn’t North?
Down south in a day or two
Then Rain chances may come down over North Coastal Tamilnadu
oh no already not much
Is det a ridge?? Blocking all the hvy bands coming frm south easte toward coast visible in earthnull
Yeah there is a ridge moving from east.anyhow we will see conv close to coast.
Chennai missing the two storms narrowly
Perumkadavilla, trivandrum suburb 98mm :O
Band coming band coming
Coming and going Peiyumma?
Chidambaram getting Rains now . Soon Cuddalore and pondy will get it
What about us ??
Highly chances are there .
Bro NE ts nammaku varruma ??
Don’t know Anna . Wait and watch for that
Entire stretch of storms moving north from delta and squall line formed east of Chennai. Rains will make arrive at Chennai in next 2 hours
when the storms moving north how can Chennai expect rains?
We will see more storms close to coast and intense huge rain bands over SSE moving North gradually
Mouli na , looks like Storm will move North till reaches Chennai and making a curve towards North east
Lets see more storms will form close to Chennai coast
Radar looks very colorful..Typical NEM radar
Good morning!
Typical NEM radar!
Radar Update
School holiday declare for tuticorin . First rain holiday in nem
Intense pop ups started to from near pondy!
Next Rain holiday for Nellai district
Reports of smashing rain in Ramnad,Tvl, Tuty, Kk district…
As per the Above topic , heavy rain warning districts correctly getting rain except chennai
as the day passes chn will be covered!
Ya exactly
Nellore????
No rain in nellore
Scary clods approaching from east
Looks awesome
Interior TN??
Tuticorin- South coastal tn
Yes, even satellite picture looks scary and as typical pre-SWM season satellite picture. http://www.weatheronline.in/weather/satellite/India/India/Infraredcolor.htm
Entire eastern coastal region has clouds in the sea, but not in the land …
Schools declared as holiday for both Tuticorin and Tirunelveli dist
That much rain?
Maximum not heavy rain…. 10 mins only heavy rain… Showers continued
Wow…finally NEM winds blessing Chennai with heavy rains….storms approaching Chennai deluge is expected anytime
Looks like a UAC is trying to form….if happens Chennai gets jackpot
What is a typical height of UAC? 700 HPA?
Hasn’t the UAC moved above the Chennai Latitude?
Around strait or centred around kanyakumari
Very weird UACs everywhere along entire East-Coast. http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/850hPa/orthographic=81.53,11.92,1695
NEM winds gaining strength in the tug of war between easterlies and NE winds
சிவகங்கையில் கன மழை.
Heavy Rains in Sivaganga Heard from Relatives
Yoppo chn?
mouli na will that band NE OF us come to chennai ??
Less chances more storms will form later in the day and Rain Chances good for Chennai
Northern suburbs I guess
Rajahmundry,Bhimavaram and Machilipatnam getting Battered……
http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/weather/satellite/Asia/India/Infraredcolor.htm
The Intense band NE of chn flanking south!
Band everywhere!
NE,NNE,E,ESE,SE,S
but nothing for chennai
How?
But we need only over head pop-ups to get good rains😂
y cant the band reach us?
😀
Winds not supportive still
sir but ts all over!
so y cant one can reach us?
Convection unable to penetrate into coastal regions.
thn when ill chennai get?
Need to see
captain rao is not confident about chennai rains OMG
NEM la overhead popups epdi?
present convection scattered everywhere, which not giving good rains for us.
Any chance of rain in nellore
Moderate chance!
The Radar looks impressive for CTN and NTN coastal areas. Will this be the first widespread rains that we are waiting for!
nope
Band over SSE is moving WNW!
which one 50 km or 200 km??
200
50 would be awesome
It seems its moving away compare to last update
went cycling in OMR in search of rains. 41 km and not a drop of drizzle.
hw can it rain when u are there kea
lol
strange satellite picture…clouds stretching all along east coast….but Chennai will only miss rains
this time not 😉
Current Wind direction n ramnad 200deg… !!!
A circulation had formed in bay near the NAP/ Odisha coast
http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=90.35,19.46,2419
Any rain for karur district today? Not even a single drop yesterday
no only light rains, tomorrow there is chance of rains.
data annae vandhutaru heavy rains coming soon
Naalai naalai Enbaar , veenae pozhudhai Kazhippaar !!:-(
appadi na puriya villai sir. Neenga yaru. Pudhusa ?
this is one of the oldest tamil verse, i am one of the oldest KEA viewer
Naalai naali enbaar, vaalkai valvadharkaga
illai illai enbaar, vaala theriyadhavargal
Chapala update from JTWC…..weakening!
310300Z POSITION NEAR 13.9N 59.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04A (CHAPALA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 393 NM
SOUTH OF MASIRAH ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A RAGGED PINHOLE EYE WITH A STRUGGLING CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE
AS THE CYCLONE HAS BECOME MORE ASYMMETRIC OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. A
302059Z AMSR-2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION
REMAINS AROUND THE CORE, SPECIFICALLY ALONG THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
QUADRANTS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER LOOP
SHOWS DRY AIR PULLING INTO THE CENTER OF THE CIRCULATION. THERE IS
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE PINHOLE EYE.
THE CURRENT INTENSITY HAS BEEN DECREASED AS THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE
BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY DECLINING DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
REMAIN FAVORABLE WITH NEAR RADIAL OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY A TUTT CELL
LOCATED OVER INDIA; HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM IS NOW ENCOUNTERING 10 TO 15
KNOT SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 04A IS TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP LAYERED SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN ARABIAN SEA AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TRACKING WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. TC CHAPALA WILL CONTINUE
TO WEAKEN AS DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT FURTHER DETERIORATES THE SYSTEM.
AFTERWARDS, THE CYCLONE WILL TRACK MORE POLEWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR AND MAKES LANDFALL OVER CENTRAL
YEMEN JUST BEFORE TAU 72. CONCURRENTLY, TC 04A WILL RAPIDLY
DISSIPATE DUE TO LAND INTERACTION, LEADING TO ITS DISSIPATION BY THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 310000Z IS 30 FEET.
Had a similar system formed in the Bay it would have exploded and made landfall as a catastrophic super cyclone in Orissa or WB
guys what is the wind direction ?
I think big band will weaken by nearing coast
yea i also thinks the same
Trivandrum 109 mm. Kanyakumari battered.
TVM will always enjoy NEM. so much water is going to sea unnecessarily. Even KK district waste lot of water
Dont watch storms north of us. Watch storms in SE.
looks like its going away from us pj na
OMG, a mini circulation is trying to decide whether to enter chennai or not
went cycling in OMR in search of rains. 41 km and not a drop of drizzle.- KEA
Boy, you are a serious fitness freak.
Animation shows how beautifully storms engulfed entire delta from south to north. fantastic sight.
A big balll near vizag, OMG. rains from North AP and odisha is taking shape
Ok something seems to be approaching for sure from the North East. let us see how much rain it gives
I’m looking at this for 45 mins its slowly going away from us
Naalai naalai Enbaar , veenae pozhudhai Kazhippaar – by parthasarathy
This comment is liked by bijli. Bijli you seriously know the meaning of the sarcastic comment
I don’t know the meaning. I’m weak in Tamil while I was scrolling down it pressed accidentally.
Gud mrng bro
Gud morning
he says, people will say tomorrow rain will come always and waste their time (in blogging)
😮
How he can say.
sunspot looks like a negative energy person – https://disqus.com/by/raghavendranparthasarathy/?
Oho
pl put sunspot , he looks like a negative energy person otherwise people will think me as a negative energy person
Tirunelveli and tuty must be enjoying good rains
Storms should come from north as well as south. North based on wind direction. South based on shifting.
One of the best days for rains.
Will it reach coast???
Agreed. Suddenly things looking positive because of things moving. Let us see
na 5 mins before from north vara kudathu nu sonnenga ippo varalam nu solreenga
Bands from north won’t reach us but clouds will come only from north
Shabba ippavae kanna kattudhae 😂😂
enna solla vareenga
Oru varama PJ Selva itha thaan sollitu irukanga .. did you see their justification for this answer?
Not even a single drop in Dindigul so far…badly missing delta…someone from delta pls post pics of today’s rain
As others have been mentioning, it looks great along the coast, I want our expert team now to examin the situation and predict whether this wave will hit chennai coast. This is really challange for our scientific analysis.
frankly PJ i dont understand what does the image suggest!
I trust the south band more.
Yes sir in radar animation it is slowly inching towards us! BTW gud morning!!
if each one who can scientifically analyse come up with your conclusions it would help having an understanding.
Yesterday gt recorded 21mm. Floods in my street!:)
Excellent
Hoping for the best today. Nature can’t test us anymore
Blog is silent and not excited even after active radar. Wind pattern will be favourable soon and south rain band is inching towards us and continuous rainfall expected from noon/evening
i feel south band shifting towards us.
Ninaithathu ellam nadanthu vittaal theivam theivam Thevai illai
Mazhai sariya peiyavitaal athu theivame illai illai.😁😁
My mom told its raining without break in nagai from Yest night…
No wonder.
Moderate rain in coimbatore yesterday
enjoy, storms are taking lot of time to penetrate kovai region. I think best thing to be in chennai or coastal region to enjoy NEM rains
today is the best day fr chennai 😉 wooow
True 😂wat to do my native s cbe
Expected in Bay and happened in Arabian sea
😦 😦
Nothing Happened…
dont trust models .is wht we learnt frm this 😉
Orathanadu 42mm
GT 21mm
*21mm
Riki kikipikikki
Riki kikkipikki!!!!
since october 1 ?
Yesterday
We are struggling to get rains…….that tooo in our nem
Nilam aftermath pattern
3 am today blasting rain for 30min at broadway
Here too
It gave 18mm here
Saligramam. So far October 190 mm
From 1st Jan till date 618 mm
Vry hvy rains lashing tuty dist
Srivaikuntam 106mm bulk in last 3 hours no wonder thy declared holiday
Chennai when hoilday ? : School going kids question
tomorw 😉
Sunday
Tmrw
You are a School going kid?😂
no he is 35 i guess…
I have school going kids
Ha ha
OK..😂
Jon my dad called. heavy rains in KK belt, Thoothukudi and Ramanatpuram too.
S i saw shocked to see tvm double digit 😦
Tuty is OK but don’t why Nellai as well.
Good morning bloggers
Valasaravakkam recorded 18.2mm till 8:30am.
Big band….. ..Nh5
whr its going ?
Donno….😕😕😕😕😕😕
Justification for today heavy Rains for Coastal areas of TN including Chennai
I know people are sceptic. Ganesan asked to put it scentifically. Here it is and why chennai and other coastal areas of TN will get heavy rains today. The trough along east coast is expected to move inland along TN coast as the UAC which pounded Kanyakumari, Tirunelveli Thooothukudi and Ramanathapuram districts is seen moving from comorin sea to Lakswadeep Sea. This makes the trough in east coast to shift west thereby we fall exactly over the trough with plenty of abundant moisture. Enjoy the rains. Do take umbrella if u plan for Diwali shopping. Here is 850 mb winds for you with trough seen over coast.
Great! a logically and scientfically considered conclusion!!
Super
great really waiting for this
Nice and good explaination
So watch radar keeping this in mind. Shift from south and east.
PJ– Simple,Compact and Insightful
Fantastic explanation for the upcoming rains.
This is where Pradeep stands out in this blog – 1) first confidence in what he has in mind (2) simple of way communication a layman like me can understand
What are all the villans we have for this?
Good morning guys!
3mm rainfall recorded here from the early morning passing shower.Radar looks awesome.
As expected heavy rains possible for chennai!😎
I am enjoying sun…..no single cloud seen here😈😈😈😈😈😈😈
Heavy south bands…. Omg…
Radar looks very good for delta.
U bak to chennai?
Back in Bangalore
Yes, WS rains in Delta
Bermuda triangle 😞
Ring of fire all around Chennai
see the explanation for that below.
Thanks! So we will have the ring closing from the South and the East.
As per radar….pondy going to batter
Nellore?
Upper Winds turning n nw?
Then its good for the big band to land on core Chennai right?
Kiliyoor in Kanyakumari 108 mm. Trivandrum 109 mm. Massive numbers all over.
pj just saw some high clouds moving from NW and some clouds from NE
Oru paddaiye varadhu pola . . . . chennai going to get battered
South rain bands shifting towards Mahaballipuram – chennai
Good
The band is long enough to cover chennai to Pondy stretch.. missing the guy who puts sketch..😂
positive vorticity and conv remains near coast..one best day for coastal tn
Omgg… – 109 mm (Trivandrum)
Trivanndrum gets more in nem only…
ippathana pa pottan
ohh sorry na… i wil delete!! (:
Pj, Current wind direction is from N to S ..
Radar looks beautiful.
If Winds Were From East.
Chennai would have got 15 cm!
What is ur all expectation in cm for this massive storm that v r going to face within few minutes . . . . .
30 mm max
Best day for coast and kea blog😁😁
First day of November will be massive…
NOV – 1 ????
Today’s rains will be counted as November la?
Ohh Lol… Yes!
I Forgot! Sorry!
30 cm?
Lol..Atleast 10 cm
Hope your words become true.
Bands are slowly entering 100km radius from south east.. in other words they are shifting towards west
My area badly needs rain!
No double digit number for the past 3-4 days from onset.
Ur 200+ mm is possible??? Ur favourite
50mm varudhanu papom😜
I’ll wait for chapala to exit and start celebrating as then we can expect good system
Celebration starts today.. get ready..
unless it rains overhead always better to keep expectations low
Just see radar.. bands are shifting towards us sir
guys frm my hme entire east side is dark 😉
Don’t get confuse with wind direction..
Better watch animation… Sothern rain bands shifting towards west is clearly visible
Ok guys going out. Please post in the blog. It will test ur patience. so be calm.
Have a great time Pradeep and will enjoy the rains
Clouds looking dark so our rains could begin soon
Ridge jst off coast stalling rain bands also throwing nw winds jst for chennai see snap
Is that another UAC along Orissa/ west Bengal coast??
Low is forming.
The question is does it have enough power to stall ..i doubt it for now
That’s not a ridge.
I definitely see a ridge off our coast.
Ridge is hpa, nothing is seen.
Wat is tat then
Do you mean the winds from the south?
No.. Theres a big ridge jst off coast preventing strong winds frm se see animation
That’s the trough and the winds are getting pushed around it. Btw a low is developing off the trough over north bay.
S Low was forecasted few days bak itself.. Its a weak elongated trough
Look in the nullschool animation, it’s not a ridge.