Chapala Super cyclone in the making

The Upper Air Cyclonic Circulation (UAC) off the Sri Lankan coast continues to bring rains to coastal areas of TN. Heavy rains are likely to pound most places in Tamilnadu and Pondicherry over the next few days. Interior parts of TN will see some moderate to heavy rains in the coming days. Another easterly wave is a likely event after 5th November. The Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm Chapala is expected to intensify into a possible Super Cyclone and move westwards towards North Yemen and adjoining Oman coast in a few days time.

ezindia1_day2sector-irc

Heavy to very heavy rainfall districts:
Chennai, Cuddalore, Karaikal, Tuticorin, Ramanathapuram, Kanyakumari

Light to Moderate rainfall districts:
Kanchipuram, Tiruvallur, Tirunelveli, Namakkal, Madurai

City forecasts:
Chennai – ‘Detroit of India’ will see moderate to rather heavy rainfall in isolated places with formation of more cumulus clouds through the day. Maximum Temperature would be around 32c

Vellore – Maximum Temperature around 33c. Cloudy skies will prevail. Likely to see a one or two thunderstorm development.

Madurai – Maximum Temperature would be around 32c. Moderate Rain expected in this region.

Tiruchirappalli – Temperature to remain around 31c with some scattered falls.

Coimbatore – City may see a comfortable temperature in the vicinity of 30c with scattered clouds. Light rain may not be ruled out.

3,206 thoughts on “Chapala Super cyclone in the making

  1. Literally there are no winds to steer these clouds towards coast from any direction. I dont see much rain in the next 12 hours.Maybe a few mm

  2. Chapala lost the golden chance to become a super cyclone after Gonu-2007. After staying at cat.4 for quite some time today it will start weaken rapidly before making final landfall. Some good relief for Yemen/Oman coasts.

  3. According to NET not looks good for next 2-3hrs for Rains in Chennai. No cumulus clouds around and only stratiform clouds covered entire Eastern Horizon

  4. Kk dist pounded

    Killiyoor 107
    Tiruvattar 55

    Nagapattinam 42 mm

    tuty dist started receiving hvy rains now including tiruchendur

  5. Entire stretch of storms moving north from delta and squall line formed east of Chennai. Rains will make arrive at Chennai in next 2 hours

  6. Wow…finally NEM winds blessing Chennai with heavy rains….storms approaching Chennai deluge is expected anytime

  7. เฎšเฎฟเฎตเฎ•เฎ™เฏเฎ•เฏˆเฎฏเฎฟเฎฒเฏ เฎ•เฎฉ เฎฎเฎดเฏˆ.
    Heavy Rains in Sivaganga Heard from Relatives

  8. The Radar looks impressive for CTN and NTN coastal areas. Will this be the first widespread rains that we are waiting for!

  9. Chapala update from JTWC…..weakening!

    310300Z POSITION NEAR 13.9N 59.3E.
    TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04A (CHAPALA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 393 NM
    SOUTH OF MASIRAH ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER
    THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
    DEPICTS A RAGGED PINHOLE EYE WITH A STRUGGLING CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE
    AS THE CYCLONE HAS BECOME MORE ASYMMETRIC OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. A
    302059Z AMSR-2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION
    REMAINS AROUND THE CORE, SPECIFICALLY ALONG THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
    QUADRANTS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER LOOP
    SHOWS DRY AIR PULLING INTO THE CENTER OF THE CIRCULATION. THERE IS
    HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE PINHOLE EYE.
    THE CURRENT INTENSITY HAS BEEN DECREASED AS THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE
    BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY DECLINING DVORAK
    INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
    REMAIN FAVORABLE WITH NEAR RADIAL OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY A TUTT CELL
    LOCATED OVER INDIA; HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM IS NOW ENCOUNTERING 10 TO 15
    KNOT SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 04A IS TRACKING ALONG THE
    SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP LAYERED SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
    LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN ARABIAN SEA AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
    TRACKING WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. TC CHAPALA WILL CONTINUE
    TO WEAKEN AS DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT FURTHER DETERIORATES THE SYSTEM.
    AFTERWARDS, THE CYCLONE WILL TRACK MORE POLEWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE
    SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR AND MAKES LANDFALL OVER CENTRAL
    YEMEN JUST BEFORE TAU 72. CONCURRENTLY, TC 04A WILL RAPIDLY
    DISSIPATE DUE TO LAND INTERACTION, LEADING TO ITS DISSIPATION BY THE
    END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
    AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST. MAXIMUM
    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 310000Z IS 30 FEET.

    • Had a similar system formed in the Bay it would have exploded and made landfall as a catastrophic super cyclone in Orissa or WB

  10. Naalai naalai Enbaar , veenae pozhudhai Kazhippaar – by parthasarathy

    This comment is liked by bijli. Bijli you seriously know the meaning of the sarcastic comment

  11. Storms should come from north as well as south. North based on wind direction. South based on shifting.

    One of the best days for rains.

  12. Not even a single drop in Dindigul so far…badly missing delta…someone from delta pls post pics of today’s rain

  13. As others have been mentioning, it looks great along the coast, I want our expert team now to examin the situation and predict whether this wave will hit chennai coast. This is really challange for our scientific analysis.

  14. Blog is silent and not excited even after active radar. Wind pattern will be favourable soon and south rain band is inching towards us and continuous rainfall expected from noon/evening

  15. Justification for today heavy Rains for Coastal areas of TN including Chennai

    I know people are sceptic. Ganesan asked to put it scentifically. Here it is and why chennai and other coastal areas of TN will get heavy rains today. The trough along east coast is expected to move inland along TN coast as the UAC which pounded Kanyakumari, Tirunelveli Thooothukudi and Ramanathapuram districts is seen moving from comorin sea to Lakswadeep Sea. This makes the trough in east coast to shift west thereby we fall exactly over the trough with plenty of abundant moisture. Enjoy the rains. Do take umbrella if u plan for Diwali shopping. Here is 850 mb winds for you with trough seen over coast.

  16. Good morning guys!

    3mm rainfall recorded here from the early morning passing shower.Radar looks awesome.
    As expected heavy rains possible for chennai!๐Ÿ˜Ž

  17. Don’t get confuse with wind direction..
    Better watch animation… Sothern rain bands shifting towards west is clearly visible

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