NE Monsoon Active over Coastal TN

The Low formed over SW Bay of Bengal has weakened, but the associated Upper Air Cyclonic Circulation (UAC) is still seen in the same area. This is likely to bring more rainfall across Tamil Nadu and Kerala.
ezindia1_day2sector-irc
Heavy rain likely in many places across South TN and Kerala and in isolated places over North Coastal TN and Interior parts of the state. Isolated showers likely over Rayalaseema, SI Karnataka and Coastal Andhra.

Heavy to very Heavy Rainfall for Districts:

Chennai, Kanchipuram, Tiruvallur, Nagai, Chidambaram, Pondy, Cuddalore, Tuticorin, Rameswaram and Ramanathapuram.

Light to Moderate Rainfall for Districts:

Vellore, Tiruvannamalai, Salem, Namakkal, Karur, Madurai, Dindigul and Theni

City Forecasts

Chennai – Sky to remain cloudy with the possibility of one or two spells of rain or thundershowers. Temp likely to be around 31C.

Coimbatore – City to remain cloudy with occasional showers. Temp to be around 30C.

Madurai – One or two thundershower possible. Day temp likely to be around 32C.

Tiruchirappalli – Generally cloudy sky with one or two spells of rain or thundershowers. Day temp to be around 32C.

Vellore – Sky to remain cloudy with one or two spells of rain or thundershower. Temp likely to be around 31C.

2,455 thoughts on “NE Monsoon Active over Coastal TN

  1. The spread of the northeast mon soon, which set in over Tamil Nadu on Wednesday, was hampered by the Chapala cyclone in the Arabian Sea. It is because of this that the low pressure in the Bay of Bengal near Sri Lanka has developed into a depression, the Met department said. The cyclone is expected to move towards Oman by Thursday night or Friday morning.
    ===================================================
    Oct 30 2015 : The Times of India (Chennai)

    HIGH & DRY – Rain cools city but supply to catchment areas is the key

    Abdullah Nurullah

    CHANNELS LEADING TO RESERVOIRS CLEARED OF BLOCKAGES FOR FULL USE OF RUN-OFF WATER

    The northeast monsoon is officially here and the Met depart ment has predicted the city will get at least a week’s rain starting from midnight on Thursday .The water managers are, however, keeping their fingers crossed. Much will depend on the catchment areas of the reservoirs and the supply channels leading to them, they say.

    Professor of applied geology at Madras University Bal lukraya said spells of heavy rain for about a week or more could cause levels to rise dramatically. “There needs to be continuous rainfall for a week with a daily average of about 50mm. A few strong spells, with cyclonic activity, could even cause the lakes to overflow,“ he said. On Thursday , the city received 16.4mm of rain.

    The supply channels to the reser voirs have been cleared of blockages to ensure full use of run-off water, said Ambujam, director of Anna Univer sity’s Centre for Water Resources.

    In the last three decades, check dams and other rainwater harvesting structures have limited the flow of run off. “Through borewells, we are ex tracting much more than our aquifers can offer. Reservoir levels have fallen as run-off water is not reaching them anymore,“ Ballukaraya said.

    The met department is buoyant despite poor rain in October. Former regional meteorological centre deputy director general Y E A Raj said global weather patterns indicated a favour able monsoon this time. “With already an eight-day lag in the northeast mon soon, rainfall in November may com pensate for a weak October.“

    The Met department has predicted rain and a maximum temperature just below 30 degrees Celsius for the next one week. “Subsequent spells could be more intense and bring heavier rain fall. Rainfall predicted for the next week may not be very heavy ,“ Raj said.

    The spread of the northeast mon soon, which set in over Tamil Nadu on Wednesday, was hampered by the Chapala cyclone in the Arabian Sea. It is because of this that the low pressure in the Bay of Bengal near Sri Lanka has developed into a depression, the Met department said. The cyclone is expected to move towards Oman by Thursday night or Friday morning.

    Rainfall has been widespread in coastal Tamil Nadu but scanty in inte rior parts. “Chennai and nearby dis tricts like Tiruvallur and Kancheep uram have not received widespread rain,“ said regional meteorological centre deputy director general S B Thampi.

    http://epaperbeta.timesofindia.com/index.aspx?eid=31807&dt=20151030

  2. Strong Arabian Sea cyclone saps N-E monsoon of vital energy

    North-East monsoon flows are expected to strengthen once ‘Chapala’ weakens.(Chapala plays a villain role)
    ———————————————————————————————————–
    A number of international forecasters are now scouring the Bay of Bengal for signs of a storm developing in the basin.

    IMD has now joined them to mount a watch for a low-pressure area likely taking shape to the South-southwest of Andaman Sea during the first week of November and intensifying.

    What gives them confidence is the fact that the storm-builder Madden-Julian Oscillation wave is widely expected to stay anchored over the waters in the region at least until November 3.

    http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/economy/agri-business/strong-arabian-sea-cyclone-saps-ne-monsoon-of-vital-energy/article7819113.ece

  3. Monsoon intensifies in Kanyakumari

    ——————

    Perunchani dam had water at 74 feet, against its capacity of 77 feet, water stood at 42.77 feet in Pechiparai dam (48 feet). Water level in Chitrar I, Chitrar II, Mukkadal and Mambazhatharu dams have already reached their full capacity. Myladi recorded the highest rainfall of 80 mm in the region.

    Following is the rainfall (in cm) recorded in Kanyakumari district in the last 24 hours ending 8.30 a.m. on Thursday: Myladi 80, Kurunthancode 75, Aanaikidangu 68, Pechiparai 65, Mambazhatharu 55, Eraniyal 53, Kozhiporvilai 45, Kottaram 43, Buddhan Anai 37, Perunchani, Colachel and Surulodu 36 each, Adayamadai 35, Mullanginavilai 34, Nagercoil 27, Boothapandi 19, Chitrar II 16 and Chitrar I 10.

    Tuticorin district also experienced widespread rainfall.

    http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/tamil-nadu/monsoon-intensifies-in-kanyakumari/article7820956.ece

  4. There was days rain and thunder sound woke me up. Nowadays only disappointment waking me. I am just excepting a day from Mother Nature to rain through out the day

  5. My friends dont worry about rains. After Chapala in Oman and its dissipation post landfall we will surely get rains. Only 2 NEM’s post the Cyclone Nilam NEM failed. So This NEM will be a blockbuster but lets wait for Chapala landfall.

  6. Heavy Rain continues in lucky Kanyakumari district, ending 8.30 am on 29.10.2015
    =========================

    in mm

    Mylaudy – 80
    Kurunthancode – 75
    Aanaikidangu – 68
    Pechiparai – 65
    Mambazhathuraiaru – 55
    Eraniel – 53
    Kulasekharam – 53
    Killiyoor – 52
    Thiruvattar – 50
    Kozhiporvilai – 45
    Kottaram – 43
    Puthen Dam – 37
    Perunchani – 36
    Colachel – 36
    Surulodu – 36
    Adayamadai – 35
    Mullanginavilai – 34
    Kuzhithurai – 29
    Nagercoil – 27
    Kanyakumari – 25
    Thuckalay – 22
    Agastiswaram – 20
    Boothapandi – 19
    Rajakkamangalam – 17
    Chittar II – 16
    Lower Kodayar – 15
    Upper Kodayar – 12
    Chittar I – 10
    Munchirai – 7

    • Rao ji why is it a diwali system is it going to make a landfall on the 10th of October diwali day. I feel if your parameters hold good on MJO sure short cyclone.

      • First let a system form and then you can talk about it’s significant development into cyclone.. and btw Diwali is November 10th..

  7. THE IMAGE OF the Bay of Bengal above was taken early this morning by the Suomi-NPP satellite. According to NOAA, this is what it looks like when there’s a good chance a cyclone is about to form. As of 3:30 a.m. ET this morning, theJoint Typhoon Waring Center reports that “a significant tropical cyclone is possible in the Bay of Bengal within the next 12 – 24 hours.”

    The image shows convective bands, the curved stripes of clouds that are a familiar sight in satellite images of cyclones.The banding indicates a circulation center may be coming together. Warm sea surface temperatures in the Bay of Bengal could also help a full-blown cyclone to develop.

  8. Hurricane Sandy made landfall near Brigantine, New Jersey, on Oct. 29, 2012, on an unprecedented path. After paralleling offshore of the Southeast, Sandy hooked back to the west into the Northeast as it combined with a non-tropical system. Sandy’s storm surge created some of the most devastating impacts, destroying homes along the New Jersey coastline and flooding New York City’s subway tunnels. As cold air was drawn in, blizzard conditions unfolded in western North Carolina and West Virginia.

    Damage : $75 billion

  9. 300300Z POSITION NEAR 14.2N 61.5E.
    TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (CHAPALA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 410 NM
    SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MASIRAH ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05
    KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED IR IMAGERY SHOWS
    TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A PARTIALLY COULD-FILLED 6NM
    EYE. AS SUCH, THE POSITION IS LAID WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE AND THE
    INTENSITY HAS BEEN RAISED TO 95 KNOTS KEEPING WITH INTENSITY
    ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND OVERALL STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM. THE
    ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO BE HIGHLY FAVORABLE WITH LOW VWS, GOOD
    POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND HIGH OHC, ALL OF WHICH HAS ALLOWED THE SYSTEM
    TO UNDERGO RI OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUE TO
    TRACK TO THE WEST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STR TO THE NORTH,
    EXPECT CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS TO A PEAK OF
    130 KNOTS. HOWEVER, BY TAU 48, THE STEERING RIDGE WILL SLIGHTLY
    BLOCK THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LIMITING FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. BY TAU
    72, VWS WILL START TO INCREASE AND MORE DRY AIR WILL INTERACT WITH
    THE SYSTEM AS TC CHAPALA APPROACHES THE ARABIAN PENINSULA. PRIOR TO
    TAU 96, TC 04A WILL MAKE LANDFALL IN NORTHERN YEMEN AND BEGIN TO
    RAPIDLY DECAY THOUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. DYNAMIC
    GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE
    IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-
    MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300000Z IS 25
    FEET.

  10. TC Chapala surprised IMD and other models ..its official this system will b categorised under rapidly intensified system.. if ERC and other factors stay away for time,this will be a super cyclone soon

  11. Chennaiites appears to be losing patience For them rain can be seen only in dictionary it appears. They have been longing for rains since water resources completely depleting

  12. Latest Jtwc expects chapala to peak @ 130 knots sustained with gusts up to 170 knots for more than 6 hours from 31st

  13. November will compensate the weak October, Though next one week prediction seems to not heavy, in intensity, the subsequent spells could be more intense and bring heavier rainfall, International weather patterns indicates a favourable monsoon this time
    Mr. Y.E.A. Raj,Former Dy, Director
    t.o.i

  14. Its better to see a cyclone forming in Bay and crashing into AP/Odisha/WB than a cyclone in Arabian Sea crashing into desert sands of Yemen/Omen.

  15. well before the arrival of monsoon, models and forecasts indicated that Arb sea will be in active mode, this year due to elnino, it is already expected

  16. Dear all don’t worry, this year we will surely have good rains, intested trusting models we should trust in god. He will make wonders.

  17. Sadly, I find a rising trend in frustration, disappointment and hopelessness in bloggers with almost every resource… from Radar to Rain…..

    We are dealing with things beyond our control…

    A humble opinion from a long-term silent spectator.

  18. I think things will change considerably after chapala is out of the way. Let’s see how conditions change once it’s done for.

  19. Normally out of 70 odd days of NEM season there would be rain for 30 odd days. Out of which only 10 or so will be more than 30-40 mm per day. Let us hope that his year though delayed, NEM extend to end dec as per IMD FORECAST. Still we have chances of 30 days of wet days. Let us hope and pray for more >5cm days.
    cheer up.
    May be for this ARB system should end and no more ARB system.

  20. Clouds from NNE. Rain chances looks good for Interiors which is 50 – 100kms away from coasts. Only Isolated Chances for Coastal Tamilnadu

  21. North-East monsoon flows are expected to strengthen once ‘Chapala’ weakens.
    A number of international forecasters are now scouring the Bay of Bengal for signs of a storm developing in the basin.
    IMD has now joined them to mount a watch for a low-pressure area likely taking shape to the South-southwest of Andaman Sea during the first week of November and intensifying.
    What gives them confidence is the fact that the storm-builder Madden-Julian Oscillation wave is widely expected to stay anchored over the waters in the region at least until November 3.
    business line

    • MJO ..Why does it want to stay only till November 3rd? Pls invite n we shall take it to USMAN road, do some Deepavali purchases , buy crackers , and befriend him/ her ( sorry , no idea about the gender) and wish him/ her an extended stay till December 31st after enjoying X Mas and possibly we could give him/ her a warm send off..
      MJO ..You are cordially invited to our region. Feel at home. You can also blog with us if you find it interesting..Hope you will understand our “paavamaana” situation.

      • it is expected to stay till nov 10th as per model consensus..they hav mentioned the word “atleast “

  22. TOI:

    City may experience heavy showers this week.It is because of Chapala in ARB sea that is spoiling our chances.
    City has received a total of 157mm this October with a deficit of -54%.

  23. forecasts by IMD goes for a big task. not even drizzling in the past 24 hours. a big disappointment. they said heavy to very heavy rains over coastal tamil nadu for 2 days. bright sunshine in anna salai.

    ss

  24. Omg!!! Is 2015 mimic 2013… No…….
    But data was relating like that
    This was rainfall data between Jan 1 to Oct 30 every year
    2015—- 588 mm

    2014-962 mm
    2013-809 mm
    2012-858 mm
    2011-1250 mm
    2010-1053 mm
    God should save us
    .really disappointed

      • The unusually long good phase of NEM from 2004 to 2011 was good.. but now it looks like the law of averages is catching up.

      • Enjoyed every minute of my stay there in “The City of Joy.
        Since you asked me, I would like to bring to your notice the hospitality extended by our Vagaries friend Santosh Subramanian to me during my 3 days of my trip. Thanks to the weather community, I sought the help of Santosh though I’ve hardly spoken to him except for one Con call with him along with our KAR some months back.
        He came to th station in the wee hours 4am) to receive me. TOok me to his home, introduced me to his parents.,breakfast and all..He had even booked the hotel room for me ( Rao’s Udipi Home) . I was speechless n spellbound by the way he drove me around the city and showed me some interesting places. He even came to see me off at the station at 11.45 pm in the night.
        Thanks Santosh for everything.You made me feel at home.
        Thanks to this blog n the weather community in general. We have friends to bank on when we go to a city for the first time.
        It was my first visit ever to the Great City.

  25. When a disturbance, WD can beat NEM, NEM is not a monsoon. It is to be called as eastern disturbances ED. It is so erractic and succumbed to all , even feeble forces and sometimes not existing. What kind of force is this. Pathetic.

  26. Sign of System moving into Arabian Sea though comorin. Papanasam records 93 mm. Most likely to top charts today.

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