Northeast Monsoon sets in over South Peninsula

keaweather 2015, KEA Blog, NEM-2015

After a couple of days of delay, finally Monsoon has made a breakthrough over TN, Kerala & parts of Karnataka & Andhra on 28th October as most of the coastal regions and few parts of interior reporting moderate to heavy rains under the influence of a weak disturbance in Bay of Bengal. Few days back official agency, IMD had already indicated the possible onset conditions falling on 27/28th October so now with the necessary criteria being met, IMD has officially declared the onset. The disturbance in bay likely to persist and move close to TN adjoining Sri Lanka so moderate to heavy rain would occur over most parts of coastal TN & Isolated heavy rainfall would occur over one or two regions. Few interiors would see moderate rainfall for next few days.

ezindia1_day2sector-wv

Moderate to heavy rainfall warning for district(s)
Villupuram, Pudukottai, Kanchipuram, Tiruvallur, Kanyakumari & Chennai

Heavy rainfall warning for district(s)
Tiruvarur, Nagapattinam, Cuddalore, Ramanathpuram & Tuticorin

2,321 thoughts on “Northeast Monsoon sets in over South Peninsula”

  1. Good Morning Friends. Welcome NEM. System in Arab sea has formed well. Our system yet to strengthen.

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  13. Every thing perfect for heavy rains today for Chen! Just pray for steering to get strengthened and reach at least 15kt. Now it is 5kt

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  16. Tropical Cyclone 4A in the Arabian sea

    TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (FOUR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 539 NM
    SOUTHEAST OF MASIRAH ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
    05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED IR IMAGERY SHOWS IMPROVED
    DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LLCC. ADDITIONALLY,
    GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS ABLE TO BE SEEN AND RE-AFFIRMED IN THE
    WATER VAPOR LOOP. A 281304Z N-18 MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS DEEP
    CONVECTIVE BANDING, SPECIFICALLY ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE LLCC
    AND GIVES HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION. THE INTENSITY IS
    ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5
    FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS CONDUCIVE FOR
    CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT AS MODERATE VWS IS OFFSET BY GOOD POLEWARD
    OUTFLOW AND DIVERGENCE IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE SYSTEM. THE
    SYSTEM IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF A STR
    ANCHORED OVER NORTHERN OMAN. EXPECT THE SYSTEM TO CONTINUE ITS
    WESTWARD MOTION AS THE STR TO THE NORTH WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY
    STEERING INFLUENCE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST TRACK. THE INTENSITY FOR
    TC 04A WILL INCREASE AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE AS THE STR TRACKS TO
    THE EAST, FORCING THE SYSTEM TO THE WEST, INTO AREAS OF LOW VWS AND
    CONTINUED WARM SSTS. HOWEVER, BY TAU 72, INCREASED VWS WILL SLOW THE
    INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM WITH A PEAK OF 105 KNOTS BY TAU 96.
    BEYOND THAT, LAND INTERACTION AND CONTINUED VWS WILL BEGIN TO DECAY
    THE SYSTEM. WHILE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN UNUSUALLY TIGHT AGREEMENT FOR
    A FIRST WARNING, THERE REMAINS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
    TRACK DUE TO THE SYSTEM BEING IN ITS INFANCY AND THUS PARTICULARLY
    VARIABLE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281800Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT
    WARNINGS AT 290300Z, 290900Z, 291500Z AND 292100Z.

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  24. As Arabian system distanced away…our Bay system getting back its life….and strenthening and going to push strong storms into Chennai and interiors…. It’s in perfect position to do so..good luck

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  28. North-East monsoon rains have commenced over Tamil Nadu, Kerala and adjoining areas of Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh on Wednesday.

    Rainfall received during the 24 hours ending in the morning was (in cm) is as follows:

    Machilipatnam and Vallam-9 each; Tambaram and Mettupalayam-7 each; Chembarambakkam-5; Papanasam, Sendurai and Ariyalur-4 each; Kakinada and Tiruchirappalli-3 each; Kozhikode and Puducherry-2 each; and Chennai, Kannur, Tondi, Pamban and Cuddalore-1 each.

    May spread out

    The rains are forecast to propagate northward along the Tamil Nadu coast during the next few days, an India Met Department update said.

    Heavy rain would occur at isolated places over coastal Tamil Nadu on Thursday. A similar forecast is valid for isolated places over coastal Tamil Nadu and Kerala for the two days that follow.

    On Wednesday, a storm in the form of a depression developed over East Arabian Sea, which triggered a rush of easterly winds across the peninsula and the Bay of Bengal precipitating the rain.

    The Met said that the depression would intensify into a deep depression and further into a tropical cyclone in the next two to three days, but away from the Indian coast.

    ā€˜Lowā€™ persists

    This will help sustain the easterly flows and keep the North-East monsoon steady, pushing rains into more parts of Tamil Nadu and Kerala.

    The rush of the flows caused the counterpart low-pressure area over South-West Bay of Bengal to drift partly into land over Sri Lanka, compromising its potential to grow.

    It may weaken around the region, but still pilot a wave of rainfall along the Tamil Nadu coast towards the north.

    The residual flows are later forecast to converge off the Odisha coast and propel rains into the North Coastal Andhra Pradesh as well.

    An extended forecast valid for the next seven days (until November 4) said that rain or thundershowerswould occur at many places over South India.

    http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/todays-paper/tp-agri-biz-and-commodity/ne-monsoon-rains-lash-parts-of-tamil-nadu-kerala/article7815526.ece

    Report courtesy. The Hindu Business Line.

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  29. Get ready guys!
    Massive pop ups approaching coast!!!!!
    Like I said yesterday next 3 days it’s going to be a rainy day šŸ™‚

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  33. Easterlies strengthened. It is likely to creat lots of popups with the help of LPA moving up !!!

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  38. Like I said today is going to be the starting of true NEM in Chennai.

    Friday,sat,sunday is the day for chennai.

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  40. Kolkata (Calcutta) was pleasant and comfortable at 32 degrees Celsius n the minimum hovered around 21 degrees. Some signs of winter already there.
    Few snaps from ” The City of Joy.”.

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  48. People should understand one thing.
    93B is still alive SE of SL and it is expected to move up only today.It was far away to have any impact on us.Once it starts moving up good rainfall can be expected soon. Thats what is going to happen from today and thats what many models are hinting.Good rainfall can be expected only from friday extending till sunday.
    From today typical On and off heavy showers possible in and around chennai.
    I do understand most of the bloggers frustration but rain was never on cards for the past 2 days as there was no movement seen at all.
    Expecting a minimum of 100-150mm before October ends officiallyā˜ŗļøā˜”ļø

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  51. Upper tropospheric ridge line is currently close to 15 N latitude and aloft Andaman Sea. There is some increase in low level convergence and upper level divergence. Convective clusters have started to flare up near the circulation, to the SE of Lanka.

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  52. We have to applaud the brave face put up by the youngsters of this group by backing up the forecasts and by standing by it. Surely there will be failures and success in every forecast. Nobody is an expert here.

    Hopefully they learn from the mistakes and keep improving each time. After all they are the future faces of this blog.

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  54. Actually due to hyperactive models (interms of system and rainfall) everyone frustrated with “hyper expectation”. As we keep on saying now BOB system coming out of dormancy. Let’s keep watch on 93B, which will gain latitude and intensity starting from today.šŸ‘šŸ˜€http://www.weatheronline.in/weather/satellite/India/India/Infraredcolor.htm

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  58. I still feel gfs is accurate for 1-2 day forecast or even 2-3 days. Beyond that we cannot trust.

    This is the best we have got.

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  59. we can expect only light showers today but from tonight or tomorrow morning we can see widespred rain may be heavy some times.

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  80. Useless cyclone in Arabian sea is taking the support of Western Disturbance…no sign of weakening…

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  83. AS Cyclone will get steeered almost perfectly in a westerly direction with a near equatorial ridge near the horn of Africa and dominant STR to the north of Arabian Sea.

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  91. Bands from the lpa moving up and touching the north coastal area.. Clouds are in from NE /ENE.. Good conv happening near SL coast..

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  98. Chennai will get rains soon. It is almost continuous rains with some gaps. Heavy/good rains expected from night/early morning.

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  99. vorticity is not good along the coast unlike yesterday..so ts might weaken as it moves inland slowly .lets see what 11.30 chart shows

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