After a couple of days of delay, finally Monsoon has made a breakthrough over TN, Kerala & parts of Karnataka & Andhra on 28th October as most of the coastal regions and few parts of interior reporting moderate to heavy rains under the influence of a weak disturbance in Bay of Bengal. Few days back official agency, IMD had already indicated the possible onset conditions falling on 27/28th October so now with the necessary criteria being met, IMD has officially declared the onset. The disturbance in bay likely to persist and move close to TN adjoining Sri Lanka so moderate to heavy rain would occur over most parts of coastal TN & Isolated heavy rainfall would occur over one or two regions. Few interiors would see moderate rainfall for next few days.
Moderate to heavy rainfall warning for district(s)
Villupuram, Pudukottai, Kanchipuram, Tiruvallur, Kanyakumari & Chennai
Heavy rainfall warning for district(s)
Tiruvarur, Nagapattinam, Cuddalore, Ramanathpuram & Tuticorin
Good Morning Friends. Welcome NEM. System in Arab sea has formed well. Our system yet to strengthen.
Many more happy returns of the day Jeet!!!
Many Happy Returns of the day Jeetu. .Have a great year ahead.
Sharp Showers lashed Madras Central areas around 3 Am all the way thru EVR Road..
Radar is promising . Let’s see
Happy birthday Jeet
Accuweather moving LPA to Bangladesh!
http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/india-on-watch-for-potential-t/53137651
Happy birthday Jeet, may every pop up bring rain
93B or its reincarnation seems to have moved 70KM N/NW since yesterday
It’s no longer a proper circulation for tracking.
weatheronline.co.uk/weather/satellite/Asia/India/Infraredcolor.htm
It’s still moving…..
Hi An and from which source you got this message
http://earth.nullschool.net/
move the map to SL/S India
Radar active.Showers approaching us
š
They don’t seem to cross the Chennai coast..
Happy birthday zukukuchido aka jeetu aka heetu :))))!!!!!!!
TS approaching us!
Every thing perfect for heavy rains today for Chen! Just pray for steering to get strengthened and reach at least 15kt. Now it is 5kt
http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/tamil-nadu/heavy-showers-evade-waterstarved-city/article7816139.ece?homepage=true?w=alstates
Pathetic…Rains are avoiding Chennai like crazy.
gud morning blogers its drizzling in my area with sunshine š
Tropical Cyclone 4A in the Arabian sea
TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (FOUR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 539 NM
SOUTHEAST OF MASIRAH ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED IR IMAGERY SHOWS IMPROVED
DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LLCC. ADDITIONALLY,
GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS ABLE TO BE SEEN AND RE-AFFIRMED IN THE
WATER VAPOR LOOP. A 281304Z N-18 MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING, SPECIFICALLY ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE LLCC
AND GIVES HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION. THE INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5
FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS CONDUCIVE FOR
CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT AS MODERATE VWS IS OFFSET BY GOOD POLEWARD
OUTFLOW AND DIVERGENCE IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE SYSTEM. THE
SYSTEM IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF A STR
ANCHORED OVER NORTHERN OMAN. EXPECT THE SYSTEM TO CONTINUE ITS
WESTWARD MOTION AS THE STR TO THE NORTH WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY
STEERING INFLUENCE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST TRACK. THE INTENSITY FOR
TC 04A WILL INCREASE AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE AS THE STR TRACKS TO
THE EAST, FORCING THE SYSTEM TO THE WEST, INTO AREAS OF LOW VWS AND
CONTINUED WARM SSTS. HOWEVER, BY TAU 72, INCREASED VWS WILL SLOW THE
INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM WITH A PEAK OF 105 KNOTS BY TAU 96.
BEYOND THAT, LAND INTERACTION AND CONTINUED VWS WILL BEGIN TO DECAY
THE SYSTEM. WHILE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN UNUSUALLY TIGHT AGREEMENT FOR
A FIRST WARNING, THERE REMAINS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK DUE TO THE SYSTEM BEING IN ITS INFANCY AND THUS PARTICULARLY
VARIABLE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281800Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 290300Z, 290900Z, 291500Z AND 292100Z.
hpy bday jeetu š
Happy birthday jeetu
Yesterday night moderate showers
guys showers and TSapproching us š
Hi jeetu, Wish you a many more happy returns of the day. š š š
Clouds r moving in from NE, as the circ moving up..
Happy birthday Jeetu
As Arabian system distanced away…our Bay system getting back its life….and strenthening and going to push strong storms into Chennai and interiors…. It’s in perfect position to do so..good luck
yea iam also telling tht only some lost hope in ths system ;(
Happy birth day to my Guruji
Are all still looking for rains from this system?
See radar. Easterlies strengthened!! Lots of TS APPROACHING
System moved up
It is below chennai latitude only
See radar properly
yes having a positive attitude
s š but limited
Get ready!
LPA expected to move up today.
Rains surel yon cards.
LOL
Morning snap
North-East monsoon rains have commenced over Tamil Nadu, Kerala and adjoining areas of Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh on Wednesday.
Rainfall received during the 24 hours ending in the morning was (in cm) is as follows:
Machilipatnam and Vallam-9 each; Tambaram and Mettupalayam-7 each; Chembarambakkam-5; Papanasam, Sendurai and Ariyalur-4 each; Kakinada and Tiruchirappalli-3 each; Kozhikode and Puducherry-2 each; and Chennai, Kannur, Tondi, Pamban and Cuddalore-1 each.
May spread out
The rains are forecast to propagate northward along the Tamil Nadu coast during the next few days, an India Met Department update said.
Heavy rain would occur at isolated places over coastal Tamil Nadu on Thursday. A similar forecast is valid for isolated places over coastal Tamil Nadu and Kerala for the two days that follow.
On Wednesday, a storm in the form of a depression developed over East Arabian Sea, which triggered a rush of easterly winds across the peninsula and the Bay of Bengal precipitating the rain.
The Met said that the depression would intensify into a deep depression and further into a tropical cyclone in the next two to three days, but away from the Indian coast.
āLowā persists
This will help sustain the easterly flows and keep the North-East monsoon steady, pushing rains into more parts of Tamil Nadu and Kerala.
The rush of the flows caused the counterpart low-pressure area over South-West Bay of Bengal to drift partly into land over Sri Lanka, compromising its potential to grow.
It may weaken around the region, but still pilot a wave of rainfall along the Tamil Nadu coast towards the north.
The residual flows are later forecast to converge off the Odisha coast and propel rains into the North Coastal Andhra Pradesh as well.
An extended forecast valid for the next seven days (until November 4) said that rain or thundershowerswould occur at many places over South India.
http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/todays-paper/tp-agri-biz-and-commodity/ne-monsoon-rains-lash-parts-of-tamil-nadu-kerala/article7815526.ece
Report courtesy. The Hindu Business Line.
Get ready guys!
Massive pop ups approaching coast!!!!!
Like I said yesterday next 3 days it’s going to be a rainy day š
yea iam always waiting š
Rightly said
it is below chennai
Lol it’ll reach chennai soon.
what for pondy
93B going to rockšš
Yes we will win Don’t worry!š
hmmmmmmmmmm some looks looking good today
But pop ups seems not promising for core chennai !!!
What is the wind direction?
Massive squall approaching mahabs to kovalam stretch!
Wind direction pls!
Some thing
ENE -WSW
changed??
first it was Se to NW
Yep
How much you got overnight rain in GT ?
Easterlies strengthened. It is likely to creat lots of popups with the help of LPA moving up !!!
lot of bands?
š
Looks like the bay system getting better organised and a decent system is on the way.
As usual coe chennai will be dry
Today we are going to receive lots of rains. Inshallah
I want whole day rain on and off. I love to see those conditions
Pray for winds to improve more in terms of speed.
What happened?
Winds speed is 10kts. Hope it become 15kts popups will come fast
Or popups will weaken while approaching us .
No no it’ll change.
On and off heavy showers sure shot todayšš»
Pray winds to improve!
More pop-ups will develop as day porgresses and rush towards entire TN coast!
Lpa gping to gain latitude today.
BREAKING NEWS
FORECA increased towers again!!!!
http://www.foreca.com/meteogram.php?loc_id=101264527&mglang=en&units=metric&tf=12h
Like I said today is going to be the starting of true NEM in Chennai.
Friday,sat,sunday is the day for chennai.
Today?
Today too
It’s a sunny day
some strong band ESE of chn!
Kolkata (Calcutta) was pleasant and comfortable at 32 degrees Celsius n the minimum hovered around 21 degrees. Some signs of winter already there.
Few snaps from ” The City of Joy.”.
Thala, did you get time to visit my friend’s place?
Sorry my Lord..Just had some time to get a glimpse of Hoogly n Howrah old n new bridge. Hope to make it next time around.
OMG!
pop ups moving and growing!
will it hve any impact to core city š
yes!
but only showers!
no WS!Soon we can expect!
unlikely
Small ts approaching north chennai!
BUt compared to ENE pop ups ,there are more pop ups Towards WSW
nunga got 10mm in last 14hrs without any major ts . Good start to nunga
Happy bday jeetu
I am sure by the end of NEM @hrishi would have learnt a very hard lesson
NEM@hrishi??
i learnt last year not expecting more than 100mm from this nem
Wait and watxh
This is not a depression which is going to disappoint us by moving away.
It’s a LPA which is going to enter Gom and give good rains.
Happy š Birthday G2..
People should understand one thing.
93B is still alive SE of SL and it is expected to move up only today.It was far away to have any impact on us.Once it starts moving up good rainfall can be expected soon. Thats what is going to happen from today and thats what many models are hinting.Good rainfall can be expected only from friday extending till sunday.
From today typical On and off heavy showers possible in and around chennai.
I do understand most of the bloggers frustration but rain was never on cards for the past 2 days as there was no movement seen at all.
Expecting a minimum of 100-150mm before October ends officiallyāŗļøāļø
all popups gone
where?
To have a break
no
Snap towards ESE and WSW
Upper tropospheric ridge line is currently close to 15 N latitude and aloft Andaman Sea. There is some increase in low level convergence and upper level divergence. Convective clusters have started to flare up near the circulation, to the SE of Lanka.
We have to applaud the brave face put up by the youngsters of this group by backing up the forecasts and by standing by it. Surely there will be failures and success in every forecast. Nobody is an expert here.
Hopefully they learn from the mistakes and keep improving each time. After all they are the future faces of this blog.
Giant swirl in clouds seen east of Sri Lanka.. Where are those who said the LPA died?
Come on susa
In actual it had remained all the while there.
Yes. I kept reiterating it, but yaarum nambala š
It’s facing a slow death there
It’s better organized than yesterday
All were carried away by raamb. IMD and BOM analysis never moved its position all these days.
Yes, even GFS and ECMWF analyses put it SE of SL. Sat image proved it !
People always want rain š
No one is going to care about the system.
I believed šš
You don’t know tamil, that’s y u didn’t panic :p
I never lost hope on this 93B, even everyone started blasting about my forecastšš
susa do u expect heavy rainfall activity from now?>
I told you, I have always been expecting 100-150 mm
kk
but u told yesterday onwards!
š
Yesterday Nunga 8 mm :p Let’s see
lol!
ok!
Me too. But until Nov 15th
But you don’t trust long range how are you saying it will be very wet from nov 15- dec15
If it doesn’t rain then, we have to escape from chennai
A system expected during Diwali
Don’t trust models. It’s 2 weeks away
Who said? It was in coma last few days.
Actually due to hyperactive models (interms of system and rainfall) everyone frustrated with “hyper expectation”. As we keep on saying now BOB system coming out of dormancy. Let’s keep watch on 93B, which will gain latitude and intensity starting from today.ššhttp://www.weatheronline.in/weather/satellite/India/India/Infraredcolor.htm
Perfectly said.
How did IMD AWS record 16 mm ? My house only 5.6 mm in the last 24 hours
yesterday my house 3mm
today 2mm!
saligramam 2 cm
Oh nice amount
click the image !
It will take slow death and may not make landfall.
BOB set to get super interesting before Deepavali
I still feel gfs is accurate for 1-2 day forecast or even 2-3 days. Beyond that we cannot trust.
This is the best we have got.
we can expect only light showers today but from tonight or tomorrow morning we can see widespred rain may be heavy some times.
But going ?
Thank you all for your wishes. … Hope atleast a SCS hit chennai this year
as per u dec 1st ku ulla 1 strong system should cross chennai!
OMG huge swirl like development seen se of Lanka and it’s moving wnw
where are you seeing this?
http://www.weatheronline.in/weather/satellite/India.htm
Popups slowly moving inland.hope they are strong and give rain all across chennai!
Till now my area received 170mm in this october!
IMD s yesterday 12 UTC shows the circulation still near SSE of Lanka. But one disadvantage as per this is that, it looks quite weak in the southern and western side with no proper equatorial westerlies to give it up a spin. This now almost resembles like a weak low embedded in the easterly wave.
http://www.imd.gov.in/section/nhac/dynamic/nwp/00hgfs_925wind.htm
93B has intensified a lot and moving upwards in latitude from today!!!
So deluge confirmed from today?
Heavy rains from tomorrow till sunday!
Get ready.
I already said on and off showers from today.
Dumping deluge as per foreca feom tomo
LOL!
You are not expecting anything??
Thank god he is not expecting anything.
What happen to school holiday? Remember it’s 29th Oct?
pls don’t talk of rain holiday i have odd feeling whenever we talk of rain holiday rain takes leave!
looks good!
Mahabs under massive battering!
Blog is hyperactive with positive feelings
ššš
Steady rains in vathiswaranovil, near sirkazhi
Wow!
what a beautiful spiral band!
Happy wala bday jeetu:-) Have a healthy n prosperous life ahead:-)
Happy birthday jeetu
no strong big pop ups ENE of chn!
click fon the image!
Many more happy returns of the day Jeetu
It’s rained for 5minutes
Lot of Popups over east of Chennai
But they are disappearing before the coast..
WOW…seems conditions became very favourable for good widespread rain along TN and SAP coasts….
Useless cyclone in Arabian sea is taking the support of Western Disturbance…no sign of weakening…
WD getting pushed in NNE direction due to AS system.. seems like very strong system in the making
May be not.. still WD moving fairly E
It is helping MP to witness light rains….
Spot on ECMWF
Considering the sst and outflow ,I go for Cat 4 or 5. dry air might come into play but not significantly
Jtwc has come up with warning no. 2
Where do you get this?
http://www.usno.navy.mil/JTWC/
Max winds 190 gusts 240kmph monster..
7.30 visible
AS Cyclone will get steeered almost perfectly in a westerly direction with a near equatorial ridge near the horn of Africa and dominant STR to the north of Arabian Sea.
Interesting to see whether 93B can come bak strong… next 24hrs is crucial
Looks like it’s getting organized!
yea its gaining strength now š
Someone said it is not even there.
That was the case yesterday!
Lol
Raining very heavy here
In avadi?
93B has shown a big development overnight .
How?where it is located now?
SE of SL
Hy everyone is telling that is se of sl.i can’t find though…any links?
Check sAtellitle
Good westerly flow seen south of the system, and Convection around the system has shown good increase in thunderstorms
But as far as today intermittent showers are possible
but in coming days we cn expect hvy rains if it moves north š
Yes but this 93b will not develop
nope it will develop as its developing now š
it should move more north to get heavy rain chennai
when are you expecting rains to start?
On and off heavy rains from Tday,tmrw, and day after tmrw.
Has it relocated?
you are spot on for rains for chennai for 4 days, congrtas
Happy birthday, Jeetu.
Will these storms reach us ??
No
Intermittent showers are only possible
Pondy to Nagai stretch will get very heavy rain today.
Chennai will get on and off showers.
Why are the storms weakening when nearing the coast ??
Dry air comes into play
Bands from the lpa moving up and touching the north coastal area.. Clouds are in from NE /ENE.. Good conv happening near SL coast..
Happy birthday jeetu
Rains have reduced in sl
Mattakalappu 52mm last 5 days amount frm 93b 527mm :O
now tn chance
Power of 93B
Lol it was staying at the same place for days!
So what?
It produced massive rains. You said it died
almost gets near to nunga rainfall this year good š
Once again the update shows that Diwali system going to Vizag…
https://www.windyty.com/?clouds,2015-11-10-06,13.112,83.782,5
Which update? The gfs is tracking it NE.
Link?
Happy Birthday Jeet!!
Kakinada 30
Chennai AP 14
Cuddalore 4
Trichy 7
Trivandrum 19
Kochi 5
Kozhikode 14
Mangalore 18 in mm
Happy to see chennai got rains as predicted.
Omg š 93B is back? What a pleasant surprise!
Its there all the while as cc but not invest anymore
Chennai will get rains soon. It is almost continuous rains with some gaps. Heavy/good rains expected from night/early morning.
Only if 93b strengthens
It need not to intensify.
Moving little NW is enough.
Then how well it move?it will die in open waters with its current condition
Hmm
vorticity is not good along the coast unlike yesterday..so ts might weaken as it moves inland slowly .lets see what 11.30 chart shows
when one thing becomes good the other one becomes negative so sad .
we ‘ll get somehow
ok hopefully
Don’t worry each and every thing. Total result is important. They are analysing everythink to get more knowledge..
sorry 8.30am cimss update
Surprised to see the morning sat pic !!!