Low Pressure systems in the Indian Seas remains on a watch

keaweather 2015, KEA Blog, NEM-2015

The Low pressure areas over the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal continues to persist. Meanwhile, conditions continue to be favorable for the onset of North East Monsoon rains over the southern peninsular region around the 28th of October. Under the influence of the Low Pressure system in the Bay, parts of Tamil Nadu and adjoining regions will experience rains. Fishermen are advised not to venture into sea along coastal TN and Lakshadweep owing to rough seas and bad weather in deep sea areas.The extreme north of India will see rains/snow associated with an active Western Disturbance in the region.

ezindia1_day2sector-irc

Chennai will remain mostly cloudy with rains occasionally at isolated parts of the city. Maximum will stay close to 32 C. Humid conditions will persist.

Coimbatore could remain partly cloudy with a day time high hovering around 32 C

Madurai will see cloudy skies with day time maximum settling in the low to mid thirties. Isolated pockets can see some rainfall activity.

Vellore will stay pleasant with partly cloudy skies with a day time max. inching to 32 C

Trichy to remain partly cloudy with a chance of few isolated showers. Maximum temperature will stay around 33 C

2,773 thoughts on “Low Pressure systems in the Indian Seas remains on a watch”

    • Just started working… South of Chenglepet getting ready for rains… We may have to wait a little longer.

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  4. There is a rumour spreading like wildfire in whatsapp regarding unprecedented rains for chennai starting tomorrow. There is no truth whatsoever in that message. Please disregard.

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  7. Happy birthday Gajendaran. Hope common sense prevails and all wish him in blog birthday page rather than whatsapp group, where he is not even a member.

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  15. ha..ha..it looks Arabian system losing convection with forward movement in MJO towards phase 3. I wonder if this Arabian system intensifies to a major system as per most of the models’ predictions (including as per few of our friends’ : ) 🙂

    With this rapid turnout of event in MJO’s forward movement towards phase 3, focus will slowly turn to our BOB-system. So expecting more strengthening of 93B and hence in elevation in latitude towards CTN-NTN/SAP in today’s models’ runs when compared to yesterday. So keep fingers crossed in 🙂

    http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=indian&sat=wm5&prod=ir&zoom=&time=
    MJO: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ALL_emean_phase_full.gif

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  17. Good morning friends 😁

    Things are changing very positive for Tamilnadu in coming days . Most of the models looks good. This picture shows heavy rain possible along North coastal tamilnadu to Orissa coast . Rain should starts by this evening / tomorrow morning for sure . Already a a weak band seen in radar . Its was good sign.

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  18. Research report
    Abstract

    The role of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the modulation of tropical cyclone activity over the Bay of Bengal (BoB) for the 1979–2011 period is examined. It is shown that Niño-3.4 sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies are negatively correlated with the BoB tropical cyclone activity to a statistically significant percentage by a lead time of 5 months. Composites of 10-m zonal winds exhibit greater variance during La Niña events, favoring the development of low-level cyclonic vorticity. Low vertical wind shear over the central and northern BoB also aids in the development of tropical cyclones during La Niña events. Increased relative humidity is the result of enhanced moisture transport and higher precipitable water under La Niña conditions. Furthermore, storm-relative composites of relative humidity show stronger moisture pulses over the BoB during La Niña. The enhanced moisture associated with tropical cyclogenesis likely aids in the development and strengthening of the systems. ENSO forces modulations in oceanic conditions as well. The observed negative (positive) SST anomalies during La Niña (El Niño) could be seen as the result of increased (decreased) net heat flux across the sea surface. Tropical cyclone activity varies between El Niño and La Niña as a result of anomalous wind and moisture patterns during each ENSO phase.

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  19. @Pradeep John to TOI on NEM today

    ————————-

    FORECAST FOR THE WEEK – Monsoon clouds on the horizon, light rains today

    While heavy rain will be fairly widespread across coastal Tamil Nadu, it will be scattered in the interiors. “Irrespective of the low pressure near Sri Lanka and in the Arabian Sea, the monsoon will set in,“ says weather blogger Pradeep John.

    “The rainfall this time will be above average,“ says Pradeep. “The deficit will be made up for in November.“

    http://epaperbeta.timesofindia.com/Article.aspx?eid=31807&articlexml=FORECAST-FOR-THE-WEEK-Monsoon-clouds-on-the-27102015002023

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  28. Chennai to taste 1st spell of rains today – Time to take ur umbrella
    ======================
    Past few days chennai is getting some light rains, from today, its going to be different monsoon time. After 10 long months of wait, Chennai will get 1st taste of precious NEM today even though monsoon is going to set in a day later. Be prepared. Rains will start only in night. Nothing to worry in the day as you all aware, most of the NEM rains start at night and ends in morning.

    Further, there is rumor in whatsapp about a message from DC, Health, Chennai Corporation about massive rains. Please ignore it. There will be rains no doubt about it. We cannnot predict 300 mm rainfall like this. It is always wise the model runs are interpreted by experienced hands.

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  30. Model consensus on track was posted yesterday night. Please see it in yesterday post. All models now agree on track. Nomore NE curve all positive for TN.

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  32. Due to presence of a Low Pressure system in AS, the current BOB system would take time to get strengthened. As of now the movement is very slow; slower than what was predicted.

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  33. OMG WD is almost dead look at sat image. One of the main reasons why ECMWF has removed NE recurve. But trough still seen extended N

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  38. Interesting rainfall fluctuations. In 2009 Oct we got only 72mm rain , whereas the highest in recent years was in 2005 Oct with 1078 mm.

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  39. Will this year be a repeat of last year. Starting off good and disappointing thereafter…. Experienced weather trackers plz give your thoughts

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  40. Good Morning all.

    A warm sunshine greets oneself in Thanjavur today after a muggy hazy weather for last two days. Forecast looks positive for rains starting by noon.

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  41. The part of the easterly wave marked in red last night has moved west quickly, seems heavier and more consistent showers can begin tonight/ tomorrow morning with very high probability !

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  49. Drenched in yesterday’s rain and suffering from fever again. Took leave. I have very low immunity :((((

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  52. Vizag —– heavy rainfall to occur over south ap and costal tn….some places might recieve very heavy rainfall in these region

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  64. Foreca expects massive rains from tonight for the next 4 days and interesting look at the wind speed!
    Close to 36km/hr on Friday/Saturday which is really interesting!
    Just cant wait 😀

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  65. Intense pop-ups seen moving to coast!
    Very heavy rains possible if it maintains its intensity.

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    • How much for the month so far? Meanwhile I’m waiting for the day when Adyar will cross 100 mm for the month

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  72. Accoring to many forecast models,
    Squall winds and heavy rains will be from 30th continuing into 31st/1st.
    From tonight on and off heavy shwers going to start.

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  73. Oct27th a memorable date to be remembered for chennai especially.
    exactly 10 years before we know what happened.
    Rest is history.

    Hope we get good rains this NEM though not like a repeat of 2005.

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  77. Northeast Monsoon to Lash State Tomorrow
    According to the Met Department, two low pressure systems exist at present – one over the Arabian Sea, west of Lakshadweep, and the other near the Sri Lanka coast. “The low pressure near the Sri Lanka coast is expected to move towards coastal Tamil Nadu and then strengthen. Under its influence, we can expect northeast monsoon to set in over coastal Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu and almost simultaneously over Kerala,” Santosh said.

    http://www.newindianexpress.com/states/kerala/Northeast-Monsoon-to-Lash-State-Tomorrow/2015/10/27/article3099316.ece

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  81. Low level convergence taking place offshore TN coast with sufficient upper level divergence aloft and behind the area at upper levels.

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  87. i think AS system wont get strengthen as expected by the models but our BoB sys will develop more

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  92. Convergence shown in Yellow Box, this system has pull effect from West Central Bay to its position, hence the surface and lower level wind over TN coast and West Central and SW Bay is from NNW to SSE direction.

    Also i have shown in pic that RED circle which Associated Cyclonic Circulation extended to mid level, which is stronger now than yesterday.

    Convectivity will increase along the coast today as the day progresses.

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  95. If AS system does not strengthen, then Bay Low might enter GOM through south of lanka, it might reduce the rainfall intensity over TN, hence pray for AS system to be stronger…

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  98. In a today’s Tamil daily daily that Chennai will be flooded on 28th how irresponsible the media persons are turning

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