The much awaited weak Tropical system in the Bay of Bengal will be battling another Tropical disturbance in the Arabian sea.The result could well determine the quantum of rains for TN for the end Oct /1st week Nov period. Current forecasts offer a clear advantage to the Arabian Sea System. Another variable in the form of a Western Disturbance (WD) will also determine the track of the weak BOB system. The Brewing system in the Arabian Sea is expected to give bountiful rain to coastal Kerala and substantial rain to southern tip of Tamil Nadu. Increase in rainfall activity will be witnessed in Tamil Nadu from Oct 27th.
As easterly waves are going to set in, Chennai is expected to receive some good showers within the next 3 days and rainfall activity would continue for 3 to 4 days. South Interior Tamil Nadu will have notable rain from Oct 28th. Showers and possibly some steadier, heavier rain moves across entire Tamil Nadu from Oct 28th..
The WD has given the first snowfall in Gulmarg and this will continue to see Rain or Snow at most places over J & K and few places over Uttarakhand. Isolated rainfall is expected in some parts of Maharashtra, East Uttar Pradesh
Chennai – Fair weather likely in day time with late night isolated shower at some places
Vellore – Cold start to Monday as cooler air returns. The Sunny weather will see Max temperature touching 32c
Madurai – Partly cloudy conditions expected in city. Max temperature may touch 31c
Trichy – Partly cloudy conditions expected in city. Mercury may touch 33c at noon. Drizzle expected in late evening.
Coimbatore – Morning clouds will give way to some Sun. Day time Temperature may like to touch 31c. No rain expected
North East Monsoon
Cyclone conceived on 28th Nov 1996 in the Bay of Bengal, crossed near Chennai around 2.30AM IST on 7 Dec 1996.The cyclone persisted for 9 days which is reported to be very long life compared to any cyclone in the Indian Ocean/Bay of Bengal. It caused severe damage to life and property.
KeaWeather Archives 
The time of the year we all have been waiting for is almost here. This is the NEM onset week. First NEM rains should begin Tuesday night or Wednesday. Do not expect any high figures, keep your expectations low. You don’t be disappointed.
Where is 93B now?
It has moved into SL land. On the southern SL as of now
ok
Good morning, and congratulations. Marking kea presence in The Hindu, once again.
http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/tamil-nadu/beware-of-el-nino-say-weather-bloggers/article7804300.ece?homepage=true?w=alstates
All Credit to Gaje for organising the media coverage
But all that media coverage also adds more responsibilities on us
Congratulations Kea bloggers for appearing in media
gud morning blogers rainy days nears 😉
Gm
Dear friends,
Am not sure if the below is true or false, but we don’t lose anything by taking care and precautions:
According to Meteorological department, due to a low pressure formation from the 26th Oct, which is likely to move North, there is going to be very heavy rain in Chennai on 28th and 29th October.
According to the information, Chennai may see an unprecedented 30 cm of rain on 28th itself!
If that happens, I figure, Chennai will be submerged. We really need to gear up now and be warned of the circumstances.
Take great care!
God bless you all!
This was a message which is being circulated in what’s app
yea i hve the same dout how imd is so sure about tht event ;(
Me too
Keeping like educations certifacates, House documents, jewlery, cash in safe place is good, though the expected event will not happen. But if it would happen?
Heavy rains is sure. Keep your expectations high when a system is there. No problem if we will get less.
yea hope never fails 😉
I don’t think IMD has issued a warning for 30 CM rain or anything like that. As things stand as of now, there is no such chance exist. These seems to be plain rumours
I had the same doubt tht s y I felt to discuss it here
Chances there
Who circulates these false messages?
I got a forward
As of now it will be monsoon onset at that time with good showers..nothing unprecedented expected as given in your message
good morning all, sudden rains at royapuram
but nothing royapettah 😉
still it drizzling
Here it is very cloudy
omg so only my place is partly cloudy ;(
Drizziling
Raining here
Radar not working?
Yes not working
Working now.
Red spot near Ameen area. Rains near Poonmalle side
Dark clouds in Sriperumbudur..
Are you going to vellore?
Yeah
Rain stopped drizzling now
Popups E and NE of Chennai.
Yes pop ups forming
This indicates heavy rains in the coming days.!
Yes
Heavy rainfall warning for chennai
theika vidalama 😉
sry typo “therike vidalama ” 😉
Both gfs and emwcf predicting nw / nnw direction for next 48 – 60 hours
woow its really a good news 😉
Will u please upload the gfs and emwcf images for exact landfall from cyclone . .
No cyclone expected
its more thn good news 😉
Lol
if deep dpresion came to chennai means thats all .all needs will be fulfilled 😉
That top doubt… Max it can be wml..
omg ;(
Letsee
So wht abt rain . . . friend
Morning showers
Heavily raining near sunguvaarchatram…
OMG..monster convection at Arabian side. But no need to worry as more convection entering towards BOB system from SE-BOB👍👍👍http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/weather/satellite/Asia/India/Infraredcolor.htm
PJ/GTS/SEL quoted in a special feature in DC
http://epaper.deccanchronicle.com/articledetailpage.aspx?id=3972458
http://epaper.deccanchronicle.com/articledetailpage.aspx?id=3972551
Congratulations team…
Omg..severely battering.. Nice cumulonimbus
Looks like shelf clouds approaching.. 50 km east of vellore
Towards vellore, clouds clearing..
Lol, they are not shelf clouds!
I didn’t say so..it was looks like that..
Okay!
Omg… Very Dark!!!!
Dear Bloggers! Congratulations!!; the growth is steady and balanced and rooted in dedicated effort to take this highly complex natural phenomenon to common man. Instead of taking a curious look at the blog, the media in future will take this blog as the first stop to update their weather reporting……I am sure.
Yesterday’s Meet Featured in Paper Today!!!! Thank You For Gajendran Sir For Organising the Press People.
Weather bloggers are on a mission to create awareness among city residents about the El Nino year and its impact on the northeast monsoon. There is a sense of urgency to their message because we are in an El Nino year.
“We expect the monsoon to be normal. An El Nino year gives good northeast monsoon. It will be a good steady rain,” said a weather blogger. He was one of the many weather bloggers who had gathered at Semmozhi Poonga on Sunday, ahead of the northeast monsoon.
On the flip side, an El Nino year also brings cyclones and storms.
“We are planning to create a mobile app to give short-term warning to residents in the city,” said P. Gopalakrishnan, another weather blogger. “We are now checking whether we can add to the knowledge of government bodies. We blog on a daily basis and we get at least 2000 comments a day. We are trying to make sure our forecast is as perfect as possible. This particular meeting is aimed at understanding the monsoon,” he said.
Pointing to the development of a tropical storm in the bay, one blogger said “a disorganised area of thunderstorm persists to the east of Sri Lanka. This disturbance is showing some signs of intensification and would develop into a low pressure area in the next one or two days. Computer models show that this weak tropical feature will develop into a cyclonic storm by the end of this week. Currently, conditions are somewhat favourable in southwest bay for further development. This system is expected to move closer to Tamil Nadu coast around October 27 and will bring heavy rainfall to the coastal parts, triggering the north east monsoon.”
The city’s blogging community plans to share information on monsoon with other communities in Mumbai, Bengaluru and Hyderabad.
Didn’t mention blog name and bloggers name!!!!!
Congratulations Lord, Gopal and the bloggers.
Congratulations @disqus_aCOAlmI4CP:disqus For Reaching 10000 Comments (10K). In A Very Shot Time You Reached Till Here!!!
Congratulations!!!!
Ha..thank u sai….
Lot of Monsoon Clouds moving in. Good chance for Rains from tmrw, Today isolated showers possible at isolated places
93B has lost some convection but will try to strengthen again with good mositure feed and boiling BOB.
Showers to start from tonight getting heavier from tomorrow night.NEM onset 24/48 hours away!😁
Some low fast moving typical nem clouds moving into the city from east.. hopefully this is just the start of the better things that are gona follow
Good morning bloggers! Nice to see so many youngsters in the meet! Let us have a nice monsoon ahead. BTW, what about the hugely expected/hyped cyclone expected this weekend, still on or fizzled out? Is it ‘varum… aana varadhu…’ 😉 type
At srilanka!
Omg!
Will it escape to the Arabian sea? Is the Arabian sea more active because it is warmer than normal? The SWM flow was absent for all practical purposes since July.
something wrong…this is not matching with cloud pattern and vorticity
It has come out of SL.
Mattakalappu 184 mm total 316 in 2 days
Vizag cyclone warning centre…heavy rainfall to south costal ap and rayalseema from 28
This is the first I am going to see onset in nellore since I am working my client here
Hoo……….where ur in nellore????
This is an assignment for aqua company plant is at Mahalaxmi puram stays at guest house at srinivasa aghram and go to Chennai in weekends
Kk sir my house is at ramlingapuram
Low Pressure Area forms in BoB off Sri Lanka Coast, Southern Tamil Nadu gets battered, Rainfall ending 8.30 am on 25.10.2015
=======================================================
A low pressure area (LPA) has formed over southwest Bay of Bengal off Srilanka coast. The LPA is likely to become well marked low pressure (WML) during next 48 hours.
in mm (min 10 mm)
Nanguneri (Tirunelveli Dist) – 133
Kadayanallur (Tirunelveli Dist) – 97
Ayikudi (Tirunelveli Dist) – 81
Kadayam (Tirunelveli Dist) – 74
Satankulam (Toothukudi Dist) 70
Thenkasi (Tirunelveli Dist) – 62
Manimutharu (Tirunelveli Dist) – 57
Ramanadhi (Tirunelveli Dist) – 57
Munchirai (Kanyakumari Dist) – 55
Keelapavoor (Tirunelveli Dist) – 55
Lower Papanasam (Tirunelveli Dist) – 52
Kuzhithurai (Kanyakumari Dist) – 52
Papanasam (Tirunelveli Dist) – 50
Rameswaram (Ramanathapuram Dist) – 50
Udangudi (Thoothukudi Dist) – 46
Adavinayanar (Tirunelveli Dist) – 45
Kalakadu (Tirunelveli Dist) – 42
Upper Kodayar (Kanyakumari Dist) -41
Alangulam (Tirunelveli Dist) – 41
Mylaudy (Kanyakumari Dist) – 40
Srivaikuntam (Toothukudi Dist) – 39
Karpandhi (Tirunelveli Dist) – 36
Palayamkottai (Tirunelveli Dist) – 35
Kannadiyan (Tirunelveli Dist) – 34
Pamban (Ramanathapuram Dist) – 33
Tirunelveli (Tirunelveli Dist) – 32
Ambasamudram (Tirunelveli Dist) – 32
Kottaram (Kanyakumari Dist) – 32
Kodimudiyaru (Tirunelveli Dist) – 30
Servalar (Tirunelveli Dist) – 29
Lower Kodayar (Kanyakumari Dist) – 28
Rajakkamangalam (Kanyakumari Dist) – 24
Tiruchendur (Toothukudi Dist) – 23
Balmore (Kanyakumari Dist) – 23
Cheranmahadevi (Tirunelveli Dist) – 21
Papakudi (Tirunelveli Dist) – 21
Radhapuram (Tirunelveli Dist) – 19
Shencottah (Tirunelveli Dist) – 19
Thiruvattar (Kanyakumari Dist) – 18
Usilampatti (Madurai Dist) – 18
Nambiyar (Tirunelveli Dist) – 17
Pechiparai (Kanyakumari Dist) – 16
Manur (Tirunelveli Dist) – 15
Thuckalay (Kanyakumari Dist) – 15
Aranmanaipudur (Theni Dist) – 15
Killiyoor (Kanyakumari Dist) – 15
Anaikadangu (Kanyakumari Dist) – 15
Maniyachi (Toothukudi Dist) – 14
Manamadurai (Sivaganga Dist) – 14
Melaneelithanallur (Tirunelveli Dist) – 14
Nagercoil (Kanyakumari Dist) – 14
Mambalathuraiaru (Kanyakumari Dist) – 13
Gundar (Tirunelveli Dist) – 12
Tiruppullani (Ramanathapuram Dist) – 12
Tirupathur (Sivaganga Dist) – 12
Adayamadai (Kanyakumari Dist) – 12
Koliporvilai (Kanyakumari Dist) – 12
Mandapam (Ramanathapuram Dist) – 10
Tiruvarur (Tiruvarur Dist) – 10
Suralode (Kanyakumari Dist) – 10
Any decent capacity dams are present in the above said areas? Hope South TN is not tottering in water scarcity as Chennai.
kk is brim with water.
In KK and Nellai dist we have large storage dams like papansam manimuthar & servalar all in western ghats. Peachipari & perunchani in KK dist
Congrats to all for featuring in DC and Hindu.. Spl thanks to gopal, PJ and gaje for the organizing this meet and media coverage. Long way to go..
Congrats GTS
Read both the links to get the full picture
http://epaper.deccanchronicle.com/articledetailpage.aspx?id=3972458
http://epaper.deccanchronicle.com/articledetailpage.aspx?id=3972551
OMG..BOB system to intensify to a cyclonic storm as per the report?? very +ve news 🙂
Targeting Chennai uh???
moving along the coast 😦
then my area is very close to coast 😉
then my area is very close to coast 😉
Congratulations GTS.
Thanks thala.
Way to go..vazhthukal ji..
Thanks PJ
We expect something. Nature gives us different thing. Arabian convection building hour by hour. I expected this type of system at our BOB. But it looks we are missing it narrowly 😦 Lets see how our BOB-system will take shape finally.
http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/weather/satellite/Asia/India/Infraredcolor.htm
Congratulations Atchu for reaching 10K comments…
Good Morning,
Just around 18 hours to go for NEM rainfall. I am expecting from tonight or tomorrow early morning.
Great to see the team creating some awareness yesterday in Semmozhi Poonga, also happy to hear that we are going to give alert to residences. Thats good news. Congrats to all.
Regarding systems – As expected no cyclone’s forming, but the system in AS going to trigger NEM onset and then LOW over Bay will take charge in next 48 hours time. The initial trigger will be from AS system as it is intensifying faster and the LOW near Srilanka is far below in latitude. The strengthening of AS system will move the trough line northwards in latitude and make it to cover entire TN and SAP by tonight, this will trigger the onset. IMD will see the next 36 hours of rainfall pattern and then declare NEM onset by Wednesday the 28th October.
cyclone is there but after crossing Chennai latitude 😦
as per models 🙂
that cannot happen, this LOW will weaken for sure, i dont think it will move that far towards north latitude.
but all models are chanting same track from srilanka to Bangladesh 😦 😦
omg..according to that paper link, poondi+ red hills+chem reservoirs now 294 mcft storage against full capacity of 11057 mcft ( just 2.7 % full)
That data was provided by our own data man PJ
oh..but there given as govt sources
He works for TN Govt.. Pun intended..
oh ..ok
Drizzling here at Alwarpet.
early morning showers today in my area..roads wet
is there any link to the hindu article
Upper tropospheric humidity increasing over NTN…
A good rainy cloud forming over east south-east now may bring shower very shortly.
Dear Kea Weather team..
Pleased as a punch to to see joyous mood amongst the bloggers. Great to see the numbers that swelled in yesterday at Semmozhi Poonga. Spl Thanks to “Lord Gajendran” for making things happen in terms of excellent media coverage. Fantastic effort really. Kudos Pradeep and Gopal and others for the timely ignition, steering and anchoring the meet at Semmozhi poonga. Good to see lot of debutants yesterday. What is a meet without the captain of the “Kea vessel” Thank God Kea was one among the crew.
Weldone Team..
System eh iluthutu poiteengalae..
Naan edhuvum pannale paa.
Hi Friends, normally when NEM will end ? Dec 31?
January 15??
Ok. Thanks Rao.
Very happy to see the integration of team members coinciding the rainy season at SM park.
Can we consider WD as prolonging SWM? and same way NEM will also prolong beyond Jan?
WD is mid level disturbances, SWM winds will have moisture from surface to 600 hpa levels, hence WD cannot be said as SWM.
SWM withdrawn completely on 19th itself.
Thanks Parthasri.
Congratulations Gokul for your name appeared in news daily.
Congratulations Atchu for completing 10000 comments.
Thanks Partha..
Turned dark over north of Madipakkam, Rain Shaft Visible
DEcember 1st week type haziness in the sky ,with low clouds.. Heat & Humidity is gone..
Cool n overcast in mdu
Are u in Madurai?
Yes
Overcast in Adam too. Light drizzles as well
I am least bothered about the systems and its strength in the coming days, at last rains guaranteed that too good intensity rainfall possible as AS and Bay systems to trigger more moisture incursion towards TN.
Enjoy rainy days…
Agree.. Elnino or not , Arabian see gets the luck always in getting a cyclone nowadays…This elnino and extended SWM ensured that no big cyclone like HudHud this time in BOB ( Pre NEM monsoon). Atleast that way ,I am happy, Moisture in BOB is good. and not dumped in to orissa till now..
there is an interlink between AS and ELNINO indirectly.
Arabian sea system churning up big time
the pull effect will turn on NEM.
Heavy drizzles in adyar. … just couple of minutes. Sun playing hide and seek.
Drizzling in Madipakkam
ELNINO year – During SWM Arabian Sea the worst affected, During NEM AS is the most benefitted, hence there is an indirect relationship between AS and ELNINO.
During this season, Gulf and East Africa will be benefitted most.
Today any possible rain in south tamilnadu….. Now maximum overcast but no raining clouds….
Raining now in madipakkam
Yesterday night GFS update.
Depression close to our coast.
Good. IT will stall and die near SAP. Won’t move to orissa..
dark here again..super fast drizzles started..at-last NEM signs
93B, moved Nw & LLC seen over land . It is well likely to follow Ecmwf track triggering good rains over coastal tn especially over north tn..
Once again IOD strengthened, Value have increased to 1.08 from 0.91.
Positive IOD and MJO in Phase 2 triggering AS system to strengthen into a Cyclone in coming days, this forecast is fair enough.
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/iod_1.txt
probbably this AS cyclone will cool down IOD after 2/3 days..
NEM winds can also do it.
JMA sticking to it’s forecast.
MJO strengthened in Phase 2, touched amplitude of 2.
Real time OLR turned Negative, NEM onset near to our doors.
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/iod_1.txt
Partha this is not OLR , this is 200 hPa VP
OLR too turned negative, this 200 hpa reflecting it.
Good News.
Smashing Rains in Kovilambakkam
mouli eppo kovilambakkam vantheenga?
Vijay came to kovilambakkam for relatives marriage. By evng I will be in Ambattur
TS forming over Interiors, another criteria for NEM onset.
Good Rains in Anna Nagar
Pouring here in kovilambakkam
Smashing Sun-shine with cool winds…Nice climate for Jogging..
Congrats to our bloggers for featuring in Hindu Article! Kudos!!
A cloudy, hazy day to start of the proceedings here in Thanjavur. The ever cherishable low level monsoon clouds and its drizzles are yet to creep in. Great feeling to watch this happen.
Heavily raining now in korattur
Happy to say that its raining now in Ambattur Estate.
@@vijayfan_saikrishna:disqus Sai Krishna , Which paper yesterday’s meet published?
The hindu
Wow. thanks.
pl provide link
http://www.thehindu.com/todays-paper/tp-national/tp-tamilnadu/beware-of-el-nino-say-weather-bloggers/article7804299.ece
Congratulations Bloggers and experts. keep up the work and meetings. Hopefully next meet will have more participants including me.
Cloudy n cool in madurai
GFS run started
moving NW
Anyone tell the current condition of depression or deep depression or wml or whtevr it is . . .
TS forming near Tiruvannamalai…
nice to see the meet photo.way to go and thanks for the efforts by the whole team that made it possible.
best wishes.
Cumulus clouds rushing from northeast…..feeling crazy now
It should rains otherwise crazyness will lead to frustration
GFS expects a different scenario.
Might have drunken so much alcohol on Sunday party night 😆👍
All are following ECMWF now.
Wml might stay near chennai for 24 hours
No it’s a depression.
May be close to depression
Of course king meant for following only. Leader always unique 😆👍
North east?? Probably in next run
no north only.
staying near chennai for 2 days
Most satisfied and expected scenario, if it doesn’t cross at NTN/SAP😆👍
Rained Heavily for 10mins in Kovilambakkam
wow.. i am out of city thx for updating about Kovilambakkam area.
Entire tn under brief trough of that system.. See that circulation holding entire tn
Yes rain for entire TN.
but massive rain clouds are east and NE of the system
Wow.
Clearly shows why IMD gave rough sea warning.
Super..ramirao again back in form😆👍👌
Good massive rain clouds are close to the coast
North movement is dangerous for fishers always
The marked convective area should move towards TN coast….
That stupid AS system unexpectedly formed otherwise our BOB system might have turned cat.2 or 3 very easily and could have definitely crossed at NTN/SAP 😂😂🙈🙈
this is better than cyclone , depression will give more rain and stay near to the coast for long time than cyclone
Attains a DD status and moves north.
Still near us only
Moving north.
Yes but we will get rains on 30 also
Worst case it will cross at CAP👍😆
Chennai ah vittu poga manasu illa
Link for Hindu article published today.
http://www.thehindu.com/todays-paper/tp-national/tp-tamilnadu/beware-of-el-nino-say-weather-bloggers/article7804299.ece
ramanan sir expects fairly widespread rains in T.N & pondy from tomorrow onwards
Seems there is a weather station in AnnaNagar as per wunderground website. Anyone knows about this
Looks like a new station which is active from last week. Could be Srikanth’s aws
Lot of Cumulonimbus Towers visible over east
Slight rain stopped in vandalur.. When will proper band reach vandalur..
Tonight or tmrw
Near CAP 😂😂😂http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015102600/gfs_z850_vort_ind_22.png
sorry what is place mentioned here as CAP, plz give some info 🙂
I believe Central AP.. correct me if I am wrong…
North.
Weakened
OMG..intensified to a minimal tropical storm (35 knots) near CAP… http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015102600/gfs_z850_vort_ind_21.png
moved little south
No, this is earlier run to latest one
Near ongole
could cross chennai in upcoming runs
Yes, that’s for sure👍
Rao….
It will intensify near Chennai, it will come as DD near Chennai and leave as cyclone. If it reamains stationary near Chennai, in this process, Chennai will be flooded.
VWS high around ARB low compared to BOB low
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=indian&sat=wm5&prod=sht&zoom=&time=