The Upper Air Cyclonic Circulation (UAC) near Sri Lanka has been triggering moderate showers for North TN yesterday and will continue to seed isolated heavy rains over South TN today. Rest of India will stay dry.
All eyes are on the possible System formation off the Sri Lankan Coast in the North Indian Ocean. Weather Models continue to build this system as the trigger for the North East Monsoon (NEM) Onset over TN. Computer models differ on the track, but there is some consensus on the fact that it will impact South and North TN from Tuesday next week.
Chennai – Maximum temperature would be around 32c and some parts of Chennai are likely to be overcast with drizzles.
Vellore – Temperature may be around 33-34c. Dry weather likely to prevail.
Coimbatore – City likely to have a light rains. Max Temperature to be at 31c.
Trichy – There is no significant rain expected today. Temperature could peak at 34c
Madurai – Day Temperature likely to around with 33-34c with partly cloudy skies.
What a change in forecast from 377 mm 24 hours back to 124 mm now. Wonder what’s going to happen in the next 48-72 hours.
It may reduce so disappointment
I expected you to reply
Fasting
It has been changed from imaginary forecast to a real forecast!
It’s still imaginary!
NEM itself is imaginary
Welcome to Non Existing Monsoon group.
Foreca is still positive
😦 😦
United States GP uncertainty as hurricane causes heavy storms
http://m.bbc.com/sport/formula1/34622733
Didn’t expect this from the GFS (28th – 18 UTC)!
http://earth.nullschool.net/#2015/10/28/1800Z/wind/surface/level/orthographic=80.64,12.73,2606
😭😭😭
Accuweather had removed the tropical development news in the bay!
but thy are expecting vry hesvy rains on 28 and 29 😦
Actually too much of hype only on this site …the other places there is no mention about this. ……We jump to conclusions very fast here…..
Hype is surely a strong word . You have to understand when there are about 200 bloggers contributing during the much awaited season, there is bound to be big expectations..Every blogger has his views..Most of them follow various weather models and try to come with their ideas or observations. You have mentioned other places..What is that?
Well said Novak. I think it is very unfair for anyone to blame the blog based on someone’s personal views. This is an open platform after all.
Welcome Suraj.long time no see. I still. Remember the extreme motivation you provided last yr,when everybody were down
Thanks sriram…work and other commitments had me busy but hopefully will try to blog regularly 🙂
So the story repeats in the familiar lines. GFS differs totally from ECMWF initialy only to just follow the same track as the date nears 😦
Congratulations Kea. Ehsan . Deccan Chronicle appearance.
Congrats KEA…
Congratulations kea
Congrats Ehsan.
gud morning blogers any bad nws blog silent. ? ;(
No systems expected… Only Rains are possible
that also looks deluge for chennai on 28 to 29
It is still good. I guess the rains will be from Tue to Fri. With lesser quantity than expected right?
😂😂😂
Vela, Even that’s early to say..Lets wait for things to take shape..We can’t say that a system may not take shape..
bad question after good morning
Rain clouds forned in east to reach land possible?
Heavy rains reported from thiruthooraipoondi, Thiruvarur…
Yes even in Nannilam Light rains reported
Chennai gets rain but monsoon 4 days away
————————-
Rain-bearing clouds seem to have set in over parts of Tamil Nadu, but it may be a bit premature to rejoice. Following unexpected cyclonic activity in the Philippines, the weatherman has now predicted a further four-day delay in the onset of the northeast monsoon.
However, this year, the city has received only 80mm of rain in October, a shortage of 54% compared to the average 176mm.
Deprived of rainfall and inflows from neighbouring states, the four lakes that provide water to the city -Poondi, Cholavaram, Red Hills and Chembarambakkam -had a combined storage level of 297 million cubic feet on Friday , which is one-tenth of the corresponding level of 2,169 mcft last year.
Water conservation expert and Rain Centre director Sekar Raghavan said a delayed monsoon may not have a negative impact as it may be made good by copious rain later. “ As long as the city gets its share of 800mm rainfall from northeast monsoon the situation may not be bleak,“ he said.
http://epaperbeta.timesofindia.com//Article.aspx?eid=31807&articlexml=Chennai-gets-rain-but-monsoon-4-days-away-24102015001046&Mode=1
Get ready to harvest rain with monsoon likely by Wednesday
http://epaperbeta.timesofindia.com/index.aspx?eid=31807&dt=20151024
Today possible in delta?
Any rain for pondy
Isolated chance
Conditions looks very Chill and its Shivering. Yesterdays Rain, Overnight Mist and with Dry Air around Early Morning turned much Cool. Cars are Wet with Dew’s
City Outskirts and Tiruvallur Dists experiencing Even more Cool Weather
Yep noticed that. Light foggy as you see..which I don’t like..
I like it. Anyhow its cooler
Foggy in October is doom for rains
Foggy conditions are common during NEM period
Who likes cool weather in monsoon time..
We all need rains rains rains
But No Rains enjoy whatever Nature gives. This cool weather is better than sunny
More pop ups will form during the day
வடகிழக்கு பருவ மழை (Dr RAmanane sollitaar puyal patri)
——————————–
இதுகுறித்து, சென்னை வானிலை ஆய்வு மைய இயக்குனர் ரமணன் கூறியதாவது:வங்கக் கடலில், தற்போது மீண்டும், காற்றழுத்தம் ஏற்படும் சூழல் உருவாகி உள்ளது. இது, புயலாக மாறி இந்திய தீபகற்பத்தை நோக்கி நகரும். 27 அல்லது, 28ல், அழுத்தம் தீவிரமடைந்து, அன்று முதல், தமிழகம் முழுவதும் மழை பெய்யும்.இவ்வாறு அவர் கூறினார்.
http://www.dinamalar.com/news_detail.asp?id=1370829
Lets hope gfs will remove arb cyc..by 9pm update
Super dark and drizzle from mrg..
Divergence at the upper levels is spread and higher across south bay and the adjoining equatorial Indian ocean along with lower VWS
Seems smashing rain btw ramnad-pamban.. Looks severe dark clouds
Cuixmala mx record 211mph wind gust a snap
Wind speed isn’t less either . That’s a heck of a gust.
But eye got wobbly n erc was jst in process bfor lf made it weaker at lf.. 165mph lf
Well that would have been a welcome news for the people out there.
dont go by ogi on wind they over report.
Tat was not ogi
then good.
Mesowest too record 210.9 bfor loosing data but marked suspect..
Jadeja’s spells in last six innings:
===============================
7/60 against Hyderabad in second innings
6/75 in 21 overs against Hyderabad in first innings
7/55 in 25 overs against Jharkhand in second innings
6/71 in 19.5 overs against Jharkhand in first innings
6/27 in 27.3 overs against Tripura in first innings
5/45 in 25 overs against Tripura in second innings
October 28 Set for State’s Date With Northeast Monsoon
Over the last two weeks Chennai alone has recorded 27.2 mm and 52.8 mm excess rainfall, and for the next 48 hours experts have forecast a cloudy sky followed by rain or thundershower in some areas. The city would record a maximum and minimum temperature of 32 and 26 degree Celsius respectively.
“The temperature will come down in the following days, as we are expecting a good rainfall this season,” said S B Thampi, Deputy Director of the Regional Meteorological Department.
http://www.newindianexpress.com/cities/chennai/October-28-Set-for-States-Date-With-Northeast-Monsoon/2015/10/24/article3094395.ece
Meenambakkam 7mm 😦
Trivandrum 45mm
Will there be difference between Meena and our areas, becoz it was raining continuously
S surely we can take taramani data 23mm further w rf decreased
Telugu media reports NEM to arrive in coastal AP and Rayalaseema in the next 4 days..
They should have said s ap
News papers got acclamatised to say like this every year
Navygem only model still showing TN landfall.
We can laugh or believe
Analyze.
Heavy rains possible….
System has to interact with tn coastal…
Atchu as I told u system in 15n, mjo phase 2, minimal wd impact and warmer sst. Confirm cyclone or least a deep depression.
Pj even imd and Sr ramanan saying tamilnadu landfall as cyclone or least deep depression
Everyone hyped 350 mm – 250 mm – 450 mm. Thats why dissapointment. Irrespective of system making Chennai landfall, there is going to be good rains.
Models always underestimate easterly rains. Like yesterday.
Exactly yesterday rains were unpredicted ones
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/african_desk/cpc_intl/indian/24h_precip.html
Foreca has increased its towers!
http://www.cyclocane.com/tropical-storm-risk/#sin
NOAA still maintains BoB low
30 inch rainfall. (760 mm)
Blog will buy n donate a sugar factory to u 😊
Lol!
Good morning!
Imd and our very own Sr Ramanan says a storm.or deep depression would hit our coast next week after hitting it will weaken and move to gangetic west Bengal. Imd saying this easterly wave will bring the storm.
Is it true?
Yes cyclone possible mjo phase 2, system below 15n, warmer sst. Wd won’t impact our cyclone
That means great start to NEM Hopely I will see the same in nellore as well when I am back there for audit assignment
Sir you are forgetting the influence of sub tropical ridge which is the main factor for steering cyclones
WD will impact our cyclone.
Dry and cool in ulindakonda kurnool dist
kurnool might get drizzle bands in NEM…not much than that
November average is just 28 mm
Kurnool city nil..
A very cool morning.. it feels like early winter has set in here
Sleeping flag ‘on’
Latest ECMWF run is positive for us.. System is getting sucked up by WD very fast and will allow next easterly wave to enter BOB in November first week
So this time WD is the villain for the first system…
But we will get rains nevertheless 😛 The faster the first system moves away, the better it is for us
Sooper..trust you always for this different kind of thinking.
I heard that IMD has confirmed it will be DD or cyclone it will hit TN before over north
Guess they based it off GFS/IMD-GFS runs.. But even if it is a cyclone moving away NNE/NE, it will impact coastal TN to a certain extent.
WD is helping us this time
No the villain is in the arb sea
There is a cross-equatorial trough connecting Sri Lanka circulation and the South Indian Ocean system filled with deep convection
Anyone can in what speed mexico cyclone has made landfall?
400km/hr+
so another 50cm+ rain possible in nilgiris!!!!….great!!
for 28-30 oct total comes around 65mm.
Nope more than that also possible…..
ECMWF increased precipitation forecast for Chennai.. It’s predicting very heavy rains, incessant rains infact for 36 hours
Apparam…..
She won’t break my heart hopefully.. Pondy also falls in incessant rains category
SHAR???
Entire Cuddalore-Nellore stretch
Looks like you too have become insensitive to break ups!
Evlo mm?
1 minute
Unlimited!
nambalaamaah???
Innum 3 hours thaan next run’ukku :p
Want to see rains….book a ticket to conoor on 28-oct for three days…..there you will be able to see the real essence of rains!!!
GFS run starts…..
Here it is.
Are you sitting in the GFS office?
No 😛
Tidbits site always in open for me.
I don’t close that tab.
Seems like ARB circulation clearly developing.
Our system moved west
Let’s ser what next next frame shows.
OMG.. Now Wind Direction is NW to SE… What’s the reason?
i think due to uac but dono corectly
The circulation near Sri Lanka is influencing winds
hi all,please dont keep hopes on present LPA expected to form near srilanka.Many bay disturbances became utter flop this year.if the expected low near srilanka becomes fizzled out also,no surprises.But i fear one thing,if present low near srilanka moves west,then into comorin sea and then into arabian sea,intensify into a cyclone and moves towards yemen/oman,its the worst thing ever for a NEM.hope present expected low replicates october 2013 end LPA
Not at all.
but i hate arabian sea scenario which destroys NEM
Watch the show.. ! Whether it may b wave/lpa/d /dd /tc ..!
lets hope for the best
All of you know 1996 NEM was a good one. But did you know that after a good start to October with a depression crossing Chennai, a cyclone hit India/Bangladesh border on October 28th. To add on to this misery, the remnants of 34W developed into a category 4 cyclone and hit close to Kakinada. Chennai got a mere 6 mm.
So, from October 26th to November 17th, Chennai recorded a scanty 6.1 mm.
An easterly wave then gave 27 cm in a week followed by 8 more cm in 3 days which ceased after the famous loopy cyclone formed. This caused the rains to end which returned only on December 7th. The cyclone hit Chennai and gave 92 mm. An easterly wave hit next week giving 29 cm which made that NEM a good one.
Ooooo 😮
O..i..c
How was the night temperature ? During Oct 26 to Nov 17 time frame..was morning foggy
You have to tell .. susa was not even born way back in 1996
Patricia caught from space by Scott Kelly!
Magnificent!
West la pogudhu.
Southwest paaaa..
Mr.Palavakkam, shall i take our my GFS commentary.
Hrishi*
Carry on 😀
I’m tired😐
Side by side. Will the ARB system pull this towards arabian sea. Lets wait for next frame.
Will god help us???
Our BoB lingers over SW Bay over SL
What can we conclude from this
Nothing wait and watch
Ok
if cyclone forms in ARB sea thn also we will get rains from pull effect so no worry be 😉
Friends! PJ, Rao, KEA, Vela, Sel, Susa and IMD , all are expecting good rains in this NEM. so don’t confuse with models. Be happy.
No No says BoB, u cant pull me to Arabian Sea, i am destined over BoB and gets intensified 1st.
Story telling? 😛
Decoding too.
Ha ha.😁
ECMWF predicts close to 17 cm for Chennai from the upcoming spell
gr8 thts wht i wanted 😉
Wow good news!
I am happy with this amount. Expecting more though.
It could be more or less, but ECMWF has been pretty consistent with this amount
Yeah. More or less the same will happen .
Accu weather predicting cyclone close to chennai again
Accu weather is not a model
drunken app
Where?
They removed that track long back!
Nee inga va, BoB pulls Arabian sea system and our guy moves into SW bay.
vry intresting 😉
gud commentry
looks like SL would be flooded
All I know is SL is going to get flooded with massive rains no matter what the forecast says!
850 mb winds
Omg..very much difference from previous run
Neena Nana – Potipodum Brothers.
Mela the king maker (WD) comes to the scene. Will it be the twist sel expects.
brothers ooda father came ahh now lets see what thy will do 😉
Pj why imd saying then that cyclone expected 28th ull kmow
As usual slow!
its a complicated system. They trusted GFS.
But we need to see ecmwf, parallel Arabian Sea system whether it pulls us right.
will it have any impact on the low WD means western Disturbance a?
yes.
Please remember this word right through the NEM Period
detachment
dɪˈtatʃm(ə)nt/
noun
1.the state of being objective or aloof.
“he felt a sense of detachment from what was going on”
synonyms:objectivity, dispassion, dispassionateness, disinterest, indifference,aloofness, remoteness, distance, open-mindedness, neutrality, lack of bias, lack of prejudice, impartiality, fairness, fair-mindedness,equitability, even-handedness, unselfishness
“as a weather blogger, you look on weather models with detachment”
Remember friends, ECWMF is not considering side by side systems so close to each other. GFS says en vali thani vali.
Kingmaker,WD coming very strong
Our guy says i wont move up, WD will take me with him and so he stays. While Arb moves up saying i like him.
My RG records 2mm overnight.
Total 36 mm from yesterday’s TS.
Total for october: 132 mm
where is our CM
28 mm From Yesterday’s Spells Of Rain!
So sign of NE curve
Lol fizzling out!
Hmm. Appuram..
Arb system tries to absorb the BoB low.
They become embedded systems. Will it become single vortex lets see.
Any record rains possible with this systems…..?????
yes for entire TN this is good.
Arabian Sea is doing the trick. For our system to be pulled what is indicator
Its intresting to c wat will hapn..rare to c this
Here are rainfall predictions for next 3 weeks
Oct 25 – 31. 10-15 cm
Nov 1 – Nov 7 5-8 cm
Nov 8-Nov 14. 25 – 35 cm ( Depression or Cat 2 system is the question. Nov 9,10,11 dates to watch out for.)
In the next 3 weeks a cumulative 40 cm of rainfall is possible.
I will stick with Rao’s prognosis.
NGFS expects a GOM landfall and then moving NW into interiors.
Valasaravakkam 11.2mm till 8:30am
Guys all assumptions, so many scenarios. Dont go into conclusion based on ECMWF.
Story ended? May I go to home?
No no few more runs.
OK
Passikuthu, athan keten.
NGFS rain-forecast.
thambi nan commentary kudakarna la. Why bring other crap models.
Adha ipodhiku system engayo pogudhu anna.
Our guy weakening a lot.
apa… Pochi…lets forget Onset in oct…
Onset in Oct only
this is good why are u not understanding.
Push pull effect
OK… Let us see next updates!
Nem onset confirm wait for few more days on more clear picture on a system
No use in seeing the bay system anymore!
Pradeep I guess more clear picture we know by 26th
Very heavy rains possible as per gfs run!
Come with me, requests our BoB system. I wont die so easily. No sign of NE curve. Pavam WD trough. Will it play a role ?
Pls accept the frd request!
Arab come on
arb paya rowdy pa
Muttiki mutti thattana , saripaduvaan.
BREAKING NEWS.
CFS november month forecast looks deadly!
Wow good news!
Nee adangamata.
GFS cyclone kamicha adangura 😛
it will shw cyclone in bangaladesh u want ahh 😉
palavakkam, pala vakkudhu
adhu pala, kalla nu therila
supere 😉
You have started to take a leaf out of jupi’s book
See the rain, as i said. Its win win situation. Why u guys only cyclonic rains. Malai vantha pothum ga.
The first and the last word is we are in WIN- WIN situation.
Massive..
But how rains are coming?from bother ends?
Strong easterlies. .
The bands intially formed by the low near SL will be pulled by the low forming near kerala coast….triggering more rainfall in the east coast
athe athe
My new profile picture….hope all like this!!!!!…..lol!!
I thought this is a Weather blog
Hmm…..i said “love” to intimate all the bloggers to love this blog deeply!!!….i am not proposing anyone….lolzzz
Namma onu senthudalam, are they merging into single vortex ?
Another GFS joke!
Then rains???
For tirupathi
no for chennai???
Tirupathi 400mm and chn 300mm
parrah!!!!!…..unakke over ahh therla??
chennai ke kastom ahh eruku na….tirupathi vera kekuthaa??
Chennai la serungo
Coimbatore la serungo 😂😅
This will produce massive rains to tamil nadu then
yes massive massive.
Close to climax.
Hope both the systems does not move above tamil nadu latitude so that whole tamilnadu enjoy the rains..
Hi!
coimbatore will get some rains for sure!!!
Thankz fr ur good words 🙂
OMG!
PJ sir sry i have posted after u posted
Refresh for image
Omg.
its coming to us again .;)
What is this
Refresh
Chennai u asked for it and here GFS gives it for u. SW bayla irunthu vantha enna, Arabian seala irunthu vantha enna.
Where it going?
Deepu last warning.
Sry
Refresh for the pic @hrishi07:disqus
I was trying to say eastern pacific coast of mexico.
Not eastern mexico*
One.. Both Andaman and Sri Lanka vortex joining together and coming towards us
Andaman, puthu character!
towards us ela na….going odisha!!! so sad na
poichu ellame namba pakam thaan irruku 😉
Just before merger.
Omg… 3 Low’s ???
hehe!!!!…medical miracle
omg wht going to hapen dono ;(
I think GFS owner did’nt slept properly!!!!….blabbering something
bingo 😉
Now sel will be happy.
Aiyooyo Enga pogothu
Bangla
Copy Adichitan!
Omg?
Different track but massive rains to chn
Going to N.AP/S. Orrisa..
Sel, you are reason for NE movement. Weather can’t cheat u and your forecast
Lets see, So much i think this is the trickiest system for many years. Many experts will struggle.
Massive rains sure shot…..
See how powerful WD is.
Western disturbance aaliyae namma nem alingapoidum pola
So correctly named as disturbance.
Please wait WD, take me with u
A massive western disturbance can push the system east. after 14 north latitude. this is a sheer bad luck. any way next 2 days crucial.
ss
Arabian sea system helps this system to stay along Tamilnadu coast for some time , otherwise direct Bangla