TN to remain Pleasant & Dry

An Upper Air Circulation (UAC) has formed over SW Bay of Bengal near the Srilankan coast and extends up to 1.5 KM above sea level. Another UAC has formed over the Andaman Sea and extends 3.1 km above sea level. Yesterday’s UAC over Lakshadweep (0.9 KM above sea level) persists.

ezindia1_day2sector-irc

Rain or thundershowers likely in one or two places over South TN and in some parts of Kerala. Dry weather likely to continue for next 24-48 hours over North Tamil Nadu.
Weather Models are pointing to some action in the Bay towards early/mid next week which could herald NEM into TN. More clarity will be available towards the end of this week.

Chennai – Sky will remain clear, with temperature to be around 33C.

Coimbatore – Partly cloudy sky with light chances of rain. Day temp to be around 32 C.

Madurai – Day temp to remain moderate with temp touching 33C.

Tiruchirappalli – Partly cloudy sky expected with temp around 34-35C.

Vellore – Sky will be partly cloudy with day temp to be around 32C.

3,324 thoughts on “TN to remain Pleasant & Dry

  1. guys sykmet also predicting vry hvy rain on 29 th atleast 200mm.;) woow first time iam seeing they puting this much mm.

  2. Wow..it looks ER wave will be countering with MJO at phases 2 & 3. This is very good sign for TN, especially Chennai (NTN/SAP) in terms of the forecasted system to make exactly at Chennai. Whenever ER wave encountering MJO at close to phase 2 then there will be high chances for Chennai to receive record rains.

    For the above scenario, recent July 2nd half Chennai record rains will be perfect example. So keep fingers crossed by taking “ECMWF” forecast as pinch of salt.

    ER-wave: http://cawcr.gov.au/staff/mwheeler/maproom/OLR_modes/f.3.n1ER.html
    MJO: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ALL_emean_phase_full.gif

  3. Due to some special features in MJO and other indexes (especially IOD with decreasing forecast to neutral), there will be high chances for total 3 tropical systems (minimum tropical storms with rain filled) starting from October last week to November last week.

    All these 3 tropical systems will target TN/AP without any N/NE curve pattern above AP-latitude.

  4. Good morning friends ๐Ÿ˜

    As usual Ecmwf expecting a NE curve . It wouldn’t possible it seems . If it is possible , then it will give massive rains to entire Tamilnadu including Chennai . And it will weakens when goes above Chennai latitude.

    But Gfs is the only hope for us . Lets hope on god . He will change everything .. Hope for best ๐Ÿ˜

  5. Flash…Pre-NEM isolated rains alert..as NEM-2015 onset scenario inching very close any time soon after 26th October, the chances for pre-NEM showers increasing hour by hour. Enjoy the nice climate ahead. Wish this NEM-2015 a grand success:)

  6. ECMWF is also not always correct

    It completely failed during typhoon Debby in 2012.

    each model has their calculations

    ECMWF got more popularity during cyclone sandy as its prediction became true when all the models failed.but we cannt believe ecmwf too always.No model is king

  7. Good Morning all.

    As we see the short range predictions of two major forecasting models, its getting clear that scenario shown by ECMWF may become true given the environmental conditions. GFS scenario of a strong system just offshore in a flash is getting questionable. I would have loved this scenario presumed by GFS unless for the short range.

    Expecting major change in model outputs by GFS in today’s run. All said and done, if it rains at least decently next week, I would take it for October regardless of it entering into N Bay.

    Let’s not expect a drama next week. We may get our bird”s share.

  8. Good morning guys!๐Ÿ™‚
    Massive rains are going to occur from oct 27th night to atleast nov 2nd!
    Get ready for real NEM.
    Less than a week away๐Ÿค—

  9. A real challenge for the models at most of times is to locate the initial position. GFS continues to keep that initial action just offshore SL and east of it , and developments from there, whereas ecmwf feels a slight westward push in the initial stages.

  10. Vela is going to fail big time this October. He predicted 300 mm. We might get much more than that as per current gfs.

  11. The frequency of hurricanes drops off dramatically during late October and November. In December, storms of this nature rarely occur. The main reason is that the westerly upper-level winds strengthen and press farther south, breaking down the Atlantic ridge and increasing wind shear in the typical hurricane formation zone. In addition, the ocean cools significantly during November. That means less fuel for any tropical storm that might try to take shape.

    — WeatherWhys

  12. Rao sir a cat 2 or cat 3 system never occurred in Chennai history. Is it because of strong elnino sir we can expect direct hit on Chennai

  13. Dear All,

    The much expected pre-NEM KEA meet (2015) is proposed to be held on 25.10.2015 at 4.00 pm in Semmozhi Poonga (near Gemini opp to American Embassy). All are welcome. Please send in your confirmation to keaweather@gmail.com.

    Cyclone Brothers, Maddy (hopefully), Partha, Captain, Vinod all will be there. There will lot of debate GFS vs ECMWF. Steering of cyclone. The garden has a parking lot that can accommodate around 100 cars and more than 500 two-wheelers. An entry fee of โ‚น 15 is collected from all people above 10 years of age or 130 cm height.

    Semmozhi Poonga – http://redripetomatoes.blogspot.in/2011/09/semmozhi-poonga-green-oasis.html

  14. Ehsan why bring vela now lets enjoy the rains. Vela never predicted any cyclones. Then if a cyclone come and gives rains. He cant take credit.

  15. Hardly, 4 days to go. It would be a risk discarding GFS now. In short range, even ECMWF cant compete with GFS.

    • athukullava? i see there is an area of positive vorticity along tn coast but still there is no convergence out of it..

  16. If GFS keeps its forecast consistent in today’s runs then it will be 100 percent sure shot of deluge for TN and South AP.
    GFS is the most reliable for short range weather prediction. I just verified the track errors of GFS and ECMWF for some cyclones and it is GFS which is the best in short range prediction some times

  17. people are talking about next week system. now see radar picture. plenty of showers close to chennai coast. may reach by noon.

    we will get intermittent useful rains from noon.

    ss

  18. During NEM onset time the moisture should come from extreme south bay and it moves northwards and cover up to south ap, this is what happening now, WV insat shows the same. In the past 3 days it has moved north considerably.

  19. Ha..ha..any BOB standard model runs 1000 times before the coming system formation, each run will be directed towards Chennai only. This system is Elnino-locked Chennai system like 1972, 1982, 1994, etc. so one can lock this system for “Chennai” only.๐Ÿ‘๐Ÿ˜†

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