No rain threat for Chennai ODI, NEM rains expected to commence 2nd half of next week

Much awaited/delayed NEM is expected to start around 28/29th October. Despite the delay NEM of 1 week, NEM is expected to be normal this year.

ezindia1_day2sector-irc

Yesterday’s upper air cyclonic circulation over Lakshadweep area now moved away west wards. Another upper air cyclonic circulation lies over Comorin area and neighbourhood and extends upto 0.9 Kilometres above sea level. Dry weather is expected to continue.

Today’s maximum temperature will be between 33-34 and humid. There is no rain threat for today’s cricket match between India and South Africa.

2,282 thoughts on “No rain threat for Chennai ODI, NEM rains expected to commence 2nd half of next week

  1. Crystal clear skies with no traces of clouds. No No rain threat for Chennai ODI- but great threat to Indian batting order which is in disarray

    • Hope MSD brings victory to India in his adopted city BTW stadium will be half empty as three block are not approved by CMDA

  2. I strongly feel ECMWF will change it’s forecast a bit.
    Expects it to become a full fledged cyclone after recurving.Might also be another reason to move N/NE.
    They might reduce the intensity.
    Let’s see✌🏻️

    • Only two options left

      Ecmwf has to join all other models to save from nose cut. (if all models are going to come true with CTN lf)
      Or all models has to join ecmwf to save from nose cut( if system skirting along chn)

  3. NEM onset in the first half of next week.

    As per the topic it is second half of next week for NEM rains?
    That is not going to happen.

    We are in for treat between 25th and 27th, max 27th NEM onset will happen.

    I doubt bloggers have not seen last night IMD bulletin. They said by 27th Easterly Wave to disturb peninsular india. I say we can expect the max 27th, also expect even on Monday the 26th..

    https://www.windyty.com/?clouds,2015-10-26-18,16.489,98.350,5

    http://www.imd.gov.in/section/nhac/dynamic/ALLINDIA_MAIN.HTM

  4. NEM onset in the first half of next week.

    As per the topic it is second half of next week for NEM rains?
    That is not going to happen.

    We are in for treat between 25th and 27th, max 27th NEM onset will happen.

    I doubt bloggers have not seen last night IMD bulletin. They said by 27th Easterly Wave to disturb peninsular india. I say we can expect the max 27th, also expect even on Monday the 26th.

    https://www.windyty.com/?clouds,2015-10-26-18,16.489,98.350,5

    http://www.imd.gov.in/section/nhac/dynamic/ALLINDIA_MAIN.HTM

      • I had said this in my LRF itself, it has to trigger a system during that time.
        Strong MJO approaching and it will stay for 15 days at least in Phase 2 and 3.
        IOD will be weakening in the coming days, hence Kelvin will strengthen in Phase 3, this
        will support MJO to stay strong.

      • GFS, CMC and all models expects TN landfall for upcoming cyclone whereas ecmwf expecting system to skirt along chn and moving NE. what’s your take?

      • It is based on WD strength and System strength.
        I dont think WD will be strong enough. but system have to cross the coast or weaken near the coast.

  5. Though the current GFS run brings this system to Karaikal, the trough in easterlies strengthens and gets well marked at around 16-17 N after its LF and the rains get concentrated there

  6. I was waiting for company at 3.00 am for GFS run….only Rajesh uncle joined me. Expecting glorious GFS run. Dont worry about ECMWF drunken model. Sel,mad,jon,GTS will have thinking about NE curve and from this genesis point, the curve wont happen.

  7. thambi hrishi and deepak, i will do the honors of posting thr GFS run. Lets not duplicate the posts.

  8. Better to wait for three days . Don’t get surprised for these things . Always remember less expectation makes less disappointment.

  9. Maddy,

    My confidence is with trough line and the strength of easterlies this year, hence i dont bother about systems forming and in which direction it is going to move etc, etc…

  10. Positive Arctic Oscillation will weaken WD flow. The positive to neutral values have started to climb and it will continue till month end, hence more hpa or weak UAC’s likely from Subtropics to 25N latitude, hence weaker WD is expected to flow. There is a relationship between AO and WD flow.

    From

  11. sytem will have stupendous upper level conditions for intensification.. ridge axis sitting close to the center of the vortex

  12. Yes we have defeated sel. Sel aiyya dont put negative news and become the wrath of our frustration. Join us.

  13. Cheers all, our goal met. chennai to get pounding rains. Special thanks to Rao. who predicted this system before models did.

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