NEM – The Wait Continues

An Upper Air Circulation (UAC) over Lakshadweep persists, causing moderate to heavy rainfall along the coastal regions of Kerala and few parts of South TN. This circulation is expected to move away West and rainfall would reduce gradually in the coming days. Another Western Disturbance is expected to affect Northern states by next week.
There is not going to be any significant activity in the Bay of Bengal as the much expected North East Monsoon (NEM) failed to keep up the normal date of arrival. Unfavorable conditions are likely to surface in the bay for the next 4-5 days. But the wait is not for long. Numerical weather Models continue to show favorable moist Easterly winds making a comeback after Oct 25th followed by a Low Pressure Area (LPA) in the Bay around 27th Oct. To cut the long story short, the much awaited NEM may wash ashore between 26-29th October. Conditions are closely been monitored by weather experts for the onset signs.

ezindia1_day2sector-irc

Chennai – Fair weather likely with few patches of scattered clouds. Max temp would be close to 33-34c.

Vellore – City will see a comfortable day and night with max settling near 32-33c.

Madurai – Partly cloudy conditions expected with moderate chance of thunderstorms in one or two parts of the city. Max temperature may touch 34c

Trichy – City might see clear skies along with warm conditions. Thermometer may touch 33c. One or two areas might see rainy showers

Coimbatore – Temperature may stick around 30-31c. Thunderstorms expected

1,812 thoughts on “NEM – The Wait Continues

  1. A small ball of low pleasure/pressure…… ha ha… clouds are hurling towards Chennai fronm the disturbance at equator…. Let’s see….

  2. Koppu at last dusted near northern Philippine’s coastal areas. It’s dead snake now. So no worries reagarding NEM-winds๐Ÿ‘๐Ÿ˜†

  3. The North-East monsoon may have delayed its onset but it would likely make amends by delivering normal to above normal rains for the South from in another week’s time.

    Boosting the sentiment is the expected arrival of a Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) wave across equatorial Indian Ocean from October 27.

    MJO wave

    The MJO wave moves periodically from West to East from the East African coast to the Indian Ocean and onward to the Maritime Continent and the larger Pacific, in that order.

    Traversing the higher levels of the atmosphere, it helps the process of cloud formation under its footprint at the ground level and has kicked up storms and cyclones and triggered monsoon onsets.

    The wave also has a ‘dry’ phase that is known to suppress rainfall over the region it lords over and is also been responsible for ‘break-monsoon’ when rains shut out for a sustained period.

    Meanwhile, international forecasts suggest that large parts of the South Peninsula, except Kerala, would continue to experience less-than-normal rainfall during the ongoing week.

    Easterly wave

    The onset of the North-East monsoon has been delayed from the normal October 20 due to the presence of two disruptive typhoons in the Northwest Pacific, which are now in the weakening phase. An extended range prediction by the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology suggests that the MJO wave would help trigger an easterly wave across the Bay of Bengal from October 27-28.

    The easterly wave is an elongated wave of lower pressure that travels fast across the ocean and carries the rain-head upfront. These waves unleash rain mostly over Kerala and Tamil Nadu.

    Forecasts by the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology suggest that normal to above normal rainfall can be expected over the South Peninsula between October 29 and November 7.

    El Nino, Dipole

    This is being attributed to the arrival of the MJO wave over the equatorial Indian Ocean where it will drop anchor for eight to 10 days and triggers the North-East monsoon. The proceedings will be wrapped up by the easterly wave which will do the MJO’s bidding over ground.

    The US Climate Prediction Centre too sees the MJO signal to gain strength and move over the Indian Ocean in the next two weeks.

    Two other climate features with some say on the North-East monsoon are the prevailing El Nino, the strongest since 1997, and Indian Ocean Dipole, its equivalent in the Indian Ocean, also not seen as strong since 2006.

    While the El Nino is expected to last until at least the end of the year before declining in the first quarter of 2016, the Dipole is expected to decay sooner (late November), says the Australian buearof met department
    Credit: Business Line

  4. good morning all still our wait continues and the patience is leaving slowly but the positive comments from the bloggers keeping the hope alive

  5. The much awaited start of our beloved, cherishable NEM will not take more than 5 days. We have waited all these while for this occasion and as we near it, the tension and the sense of urgency increases. I would like everyone to keep up the positive vibes going and looking forward to retain the same throughout the course of NEM.

    As we all know that models play a huge part in predicting weather to a greater degree of accuracy. At the same time, models can sometimes go wrong be it intensity or genesis or track. It would be advisable to keep them as precursors or indicators to know what lies ahead of us. But, we cannot draw a concrete line on the basis of models unless and until its a short range one(2-3days). “Mix models with caution and a good degree of accuracy”

    Pooja wishes to you all and let our rainy season get kick started in a grand manner.

  6. Don’t get excited about cyclones and strong systems hitting Chennai. Pls wait until system atleast forms before posting about chennai landfall.

    Our blog is watched closely by everyone these days.

  7. Ecmwf strikes back with two systems on either sides.. so ecmwf joins navgem with two system whereas gfs and gem stays on the other side of the river

  8. we have two possibilities when system developing in bay(case will b different if it doesn’t develop to wml from trough of low)).. one is to skid along tn coast and recurve ..other is to move straight north as how madi did …

  9. There is no problem if the system moves NE or N!
    All we need is the system coming so close to the coast giving us our much needed quota and leave.
    Simple!

  10. Latest gfs indicate a development off arabian sea along adjoining lakshadweep by 28

    mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/00/gfs_india_177_precip_p06.gif

  11. Left, right, north , east, low ,cyclone , dip ,no dip, whatever it may be. Chennai will get good rains in this NEM. we are in commanding position. If system want to go NE, let it. Don’t worry. Be happy.
    AYUDHA POOJA WISHES TO ALL.๐Ÿ˜Š๐Ÿ˜Š๐Ÿ˜Š๐Ÿ˜Š๐Ÿ˜Š

  12. THis system may not give proper rains what we need!
    but moist easterlies confirmed by 28th and expecting that too be our onset!

  13. REMINDER:

    Please don’t trust models unless or until the system forms! First let NEM start then all can easily track systems with all technical pages.No use blindly trusting models and breaking hearts even before the start of NEM.Almost all models including IMD,PFS expects above normal to excess rains..
    So don’t worry๐Ÿ˜€
    Let’s all keep calm and wait!๐Ÿ˜Žโ˜”๏ธ

  14. For a few of us in this blog who have been tracking systems for the last 6-7 years,models changing genesis and track are not new.Its not to blame the models,but we do realise that too many variables are at work.Until the actual Genesis happens,do have patience.

  15. Hot october continues. No rains are in sight atleast for a week. then it may rain for 3 -4 days and NEM will be packed up. OMG, I dont want this precarious situation again.

  16. This is just like 2009. Infact no model expected that giant rain wave in November 1st week until 2 days before it commenced. However models have advanced and are way better now.

  17. News article from Hindu – Oct 18 2004:

    Moonsoon arrives, leaves cricket fans damp

    By T. Ramakrishnan

    CHENNAI, OCT. 18. The much-expected northeast monsoon arrived today but on the wrong day for cricket lovers.

    Though its advent has pleased the people of Tamil Nadu, which receives about 50 per cent of the State’s annual rainfall during this season, it happened on a day when every cricket buff waited for action at the Chidambaram Stadium here, hopefully for India’s victory over Australia in the second Test.

    This morning, the Meteorological department announced that the monsoon set in over Tamil Nadu, Pondicherry, Kerala and southern parts of Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka. Also, the southwest monsoon had withdrawn from the remaining peninsular parts.

    For the past two-three days, several areas of Tamil Nadu experienced rain, moderate to heavy. In the 24-hours ended 8-30 a.m. today, Sulur and Nannilam, both in the composite Thanjavur district, recorded 8 cm each, Parangipettai six cm and Tuticorin, Coimbatore and Chembarampakkam five cm each.

    According to a bulletin, the State will generally experience rain or thundershowers in the next two days, with coastal parts benefiting more. Isolated heavy rainfall over coastal districts has also been forecast.

    The monsoon, which will continue till December, is of great significance to Tamil Nadu. Its total annual rainfall is about 100 cm. Given that Tamil Nadu has registered only a “negative rainfall” since 1999, the people are praying that the monsoon turn out to be surplus at least this year.

    The deviation from the normal rainfall was minus 6 per cent in 1999, minus 22 per cent in 2000, minus 15 per cent in 2001, minus 16 per cent in 2002 and minus 7 per cent last year.

    The last time Tamil Nadu had a surplus rainfall during the monsoon was in 1997, when it registered 52 per cent more than the normal.

    Favourable prediction

    Already, the Tamil Nadu Agricultural University and two senior officers of the Meteorological department have predicted a “normal or above normal” monsoon for this year.

    The United States-based International Research Institute for Climate Prediction, in its “climate outlook” bulletin for Asia issued last month, said enhanced probabilities for above normal precipitation were forecast for Sri Lanka and extreme southern India during October-December.

  18. Dont know. something uncomfortable. Getting fear that NTN especially Chennai will end up below normal rainfall this NEM.

  19. Tamil Nadu continues to get rain before NEM onset, ending 8.30 am on 20.10.2015
    ==============================
    The cyclonic circulation extending upto 0.9 km a.s.l. over Comorin area and adjoining south Tamil Nadu now lies over Lakshadweep area and neighbourhood.

    in mm (min 20 mm)

    Pillur (Coimbatore Dist) – 145
    Neyoor (Kanyakumari Dist) – 70
    Colachel (Kanyakumari Dist) – 69
    Anthiyur (Erode Dist) – 60
    Eraniel (Kanyakumari Dist) – 58
    Karuthancode (Kanyakumari Dist) – 56
    Sathyamangalam (Erode Dist) – 50
    Mettupalayam (Coimbatore Dist) – 43
    Kangeyam (Tiruppur Dist) – 42
    Kalrayanhills (Villipuram Dist) – 41
    Pudukottai (Pudukkottai Dist) – 40
    Karamadai (Coimbatore Dist) – 36
    Rajakkamangalam (Kanyakumari Dist) – 34
    Bhavanisagar (Erode Dist) – 34
    Attur (Salem Dist) – 33
    Kumarapalayam (Namakkal Dist) – 33
    Mylaudy (Kanyakumari Dist) – 32
    Varattupallam (Erode Dist) – 32
    Pegumbahallah (Coimbatore Dist) – 32
    Mullankivilai (Kanyakumari Dist) – 32
    Kottaram (Kanyakumari Dist) – 31
    Shencottah (Tirunelveli Dist) – 30
    Chengam (Tiruvannamalai Dist) – 30
    Gundar (Tirunelveli Dist) – 29
    Kiliyoor (Kanyakumari Dist) – 28
    Coonoor PTO (Nilgiris Dist) – 28
    Coonoor (Nilgiris Dist) – 27
    Lower Papanasam (Tirunelveli Dist) – 27
    Sankaridurg (Salem Dist) – 26
    Udangudi (Thoothukudi Dist) – 25
    Kundha bridge (Nilgiris Dist) – 24
    Jawadhu Hills (Tiruvannamalai Dist) – 24
    Manimutharu (Tirunelveli Dist) – 24
    Perundurai (Erode Dist) – 23
    Servalar (Tirunelveli Dist) – 23
    Thoothukudi Port (Toothukudi Dist) – 23,
    Srivaikuntam -(Toothukudi Dist) – 22
    Yercaud (Salem Dist) – 21
    Ammapet (Erode Dist) – 21
    Gangavalli (Salem Dist) – 21
    Madurai south (Madurai Dist) – 20
    Bodinaickanur (Theni Dist) – 20
    Manur (Tirunelveli Dist) – 20
    Arantangi (Pudukkottai Dist) – 20

  20. Comorin UAC to become Cyclone
    =====================
    GEM showed Arabian Sea Cyclone yesterday we laughed at it. Now GFS shows it. GEM spots the shifts 1st though it may not be accurate.

  21. Mumbai broke 43 year old record on Friday with 38.6 c.
    Previously it was 37.9 c on oct 23,1972…
    Temperature expected to stay 37-38 c for next one week..
    Then fall in temperature can be expected..
    This was due to anti cyclonic easterly winds…

  22. South Indian Ocean system has intensified a lot overnight. Infact there are 2 circulations embedded in the same trough and one in N hemisphere in response to this circulation.

  23. Arb sea disturbance would b getting good divergence through outflow aided by trough in upper level westerlies.. good chance for named system with minimum cat 1 intensity.. only hinderance wud be dry air driven by the same trough .

  24. hope it seems all parameters say ,nem will hit Chennai by 28th and further rains will commence from there on- till 6th nov, we may get some good mm numbers.

  25. westcoast and southern coast will register some massive mm,number from 29-5th nov.mainly due to systems in arb and bob.

  26. In the current run, an off-shore trough is seen running across TN induced by the system. This could provide some showers till the system organizes and intensifies

Please restrict Comments to Weather only

Please log in using one of these methods to post your comment:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s