South West Monsoon (SWM) bids Adieu

The SWM which started on June 5 has now completely withdrawn from all parts of India. A large subtropical high pressure has formed over Central India, signaling dry weather for most parts of the country in the days to come. A western disturbance persists over North Pakistan and its neighboring region which is expected to move eastwards bringing widespread heavy rainfall for the state of J& K and HP. Another disturbance persists in the Comorin Sea and its adjoining South TN which is likely to bring thunderstorms for South TN, coastal parts of Central TN and Kerala for the next 2 days. North TN will remain mostly dry with a chance of sporadic thundershowers in a few places of coastal region. Normally when SWM withdraws, North east monsoon (NEM) starts in a few days’ time, but this year there will be a delay in the onset of the NEM.
ezindia1_day2sector-irc
Chennai: Maximum temperature is likely to move closer to 34C. There could be some isolated showers during late night or early morning hours.

Coimbatore: City will see max temperature around 33C with a chance of rain during late night hours.

Madurai: City is expected to be partly cloudy with a chance of thunderstorm during evening/night. Temperature will be around 33C.

Vellore: City will remain dry with temperature hovering close to 33C.

Trichy: Temperature to be in 32-33C. Thunderstorms are expected in the evening hours.

1,486 thoughts on “South West Monsoon (SWM) bids Adieu

  1. When will be the exact onset of NEM 2015 . . Y It’s getting delaying and no more proper rainfall so far . . . . please tell me friends

  2. gud morning blogerrs .why the bay is always clear nowadays without clouds when the clouds will form in the bay ?

  3. Lol dinakaran tamil daily say onset already started interpreting rains in STN as basis even saying it was confirmed by IMD

      • They are one who provide news to entire TN it is read by crores of people.reach English is very minimal. It is another matter they best other than weather news

      • To be honest I do not trust even English dailies -it is not the reach alone that matters.We need to have authentic news and not hyped news. Tell me how my tamil magazine gives focussed/specialised news on weather

  4. Dry weather going to persist in Chennai for Next 6-7days , After that , A bumper and super Nem onset possible . Record breaking November possible as per the models.

  5. State receives excess rainfall in October
    , IMD has forecast above normal rainfall (>111% of the long period average of 332.1 mm) during the northeast monsoon season for the south peninsula covering Tamil Nadu, coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema, Kerala and south interior Karnataka. The peninsular region receives about 30 per cent of its annual rainfall during the northeast monsoon season from October to December. Tamil Nadu receives about 48 per cent of its annual rainfall during the season.

    http://www.thehindu.com/news/cities/Thiruvananthapuram/state-receives-excess-rainfall-in-october/article7782630.ece

  6. Assuming the onset date anywhere between 25-27, I’m still hopeful of 300-350 mm before this month end. We all are aware that NEMR is got from 4 or 5 spells of rains during the season spanning 3 to 5 days..
    Lets take things as it pours..

  7. South Tamil Nadu gets widespread rains, ending 8.30 am on 19.10.2015
    =======================================
    The cyclonic circulation extending upto 0.9 km a.s.l. over Comorin area and adjoining south Tamil Nadu persists.

    in mm (min 20 mm)

    Arantangi (Pudukkottai Dist) – 66
    Tuticorin (Toothukudi Dist) – 64
    Thoothukudi port (Toothukudi Dist) – 59
    Gundar (Tirunelveli Dist) – 57
    Mylaudy (Kanyakumari Dist) – 54
    Shencottah (Tirunelveli Dist) – 53
    Papanasam Dam (Tirunelveli Dist) – 52
    Alankulam (Tirunelveli Dist) – 50
    Lower Papanasam (Tirunelveli Dist) – 50
    Kallupatti (Madurai Dist) – 48
    Keelapavoor (Tirunelveli Dist) – 48
    Manimutharu (Tirunelveli Dist) – 46
    Chidambaram (Cuddalore Dist) – 43
    Melaneelithanallur (Tirunelveli Dist) – 43
    Kalugumalai (Toothukudi Dist) – 42
    Rajakkamangalam (Kanyakumari Dist) – 41
    Tiruvadanai (Ramanathapuram Dist) – 41
    Kannadiyan (Tirunelveli Dist) – 41
    Thenkasi (Tirunelveli Dist) – 40
    Melur (Madurai Dist) – 40
    Kulasekharam (Kanyakumari Dist) – 36
    Sivakasi (Virudhunagar Dist) – 36
    Kottaram (Kanyakumari Dist) – 35
    Sankarankoil (Tirunelveli Dist) – 34
    Tiruvarur (Tiruvarur Dist) – 32
    Servalar (Tirunelveli Dist) – 32
    Ayikudi (Tirunelveli Dist) – 30
    Thiruthuraipoondi (Tiruvarur Dist) – 30
    Cheranmahadevi (Tirunelveli Dist) – 30
    Tiruchendur (Toothukudi Dist) – 30
    Kuzhithurai (Kanyakumari Dist) – 30
    Mullaikaraipatti (Tirunelveli Dist) – 28
    Sethiathope (Cuddalore Dist) – 27
    Annamalainagar (Cuddalore Dist) – 27
    Vembakottai (Virudhunagar Dist) – 26
    Kallikudi (Madurai Dist) – 26
    Ambasamudram (Tirunelveli Dist) – 25
    Bhuvanagiri (Cuddalore Dist) – 25
    Lalapet (Cuddalore Dist) – 25
    Pudukottai (Pudukkottai Dist) – 25
    Radhapuram (Tirunelveli Dist) – 24
    Nambiyaru (Tirunelveli Dist) – 23
    Kulasekarapattinam (Toothukudi Dist) – 23
    Ramnadhi Dam (Tirunelveli Dist) – 23
    Bodinaickanur (Theni Dist) – 22
    Kayalpattinam (Toothukudi Dist) – 22
    Udangudi (Thoothukudi Dist) – 22
    Thuckalay (Kanyakumari Dist) – 22
    Colachel (Kanyakumari Dist) – 22
    Sirkali (Nagapattinam Dist) – 21
    Keelservai (Cuddalore Dist) – 21
    Mandapam (Ramanathapuram Dist) – 21
    Karaikal (Karaikal Dist) – 20
    Mambazhathuriyaru (Kanyakumari Dist) – 20
    Kothavachari (Cuddalore Dist) – 20
    Palayamkottai (Tirunelveli Dist) – 20
    Ottapadiram (Toothukudi Dist) – 20
    Eraniel (Kanyakumari Dist) – 20
    Anaikadangu (Kanyakumari Dist) – 20
    Sholavandan (Madurai Dist) – 20
    Eravangalar (Theni Dist) – 20

  8. Good morning. The upper air cyclonic circulation over comorin area & adjoining south Tamilnadu extending upto 0.9 km above mean sea level persists .

    One or two places of south coastal Tamilnadu would have heavy rain.Some places of Interior Tamilnadu including Delta districts, western interior districts like Salem ,Erode, Namakkal ,Karur , Dindigul,Tirupur Krishnagiri and Dharmapuri would have medium to rather heavy rain for two days.Many places in south Tamilnadu would have heavy rain.

    South of Chennai may have light shower and north east monsoon onset is delayed and vigorous rain expected in the oct month end.

    The southwest monsoon has withdrawn from the entire country yesterday 19th october 2015 .

  9. JTWC has corrected the last 18 hours track positions of TY Koppu from it’s earlier marked positions. The last 3 positions have been moved a bit to the west , say about 30 km app. This shows that the system was indeed a bit offshore Luzon , rather than the previously marked skirting along the coast case. After its LF there has been severe disorganization to the convection, and was possibly because of the interaction with Luzon’s rugged terrain. And post crossing Luzon , it had been suffering a bit from the VWS , though being partially offset by dual channel outflow. There is also a suggestion that the shift of center is possibly due to some mid level feature. The following animation will clearly show the shift of deep convection to the western semi circle and also the clear demarcation of some mid level organization.

  10. That cool breeze and fresh earthy smell of rain that herald the onset of the northeast monsoon may take a while coming to the city. The Meteorological Department has forecast that rain may be delayed by five-six days.

    Monday was rather hot and sultry for October as the day temperature soared to 33.8 degree Celsius, two degrees above average for the season. Meteorologists attribute this to lack of moisture in the air. While the southwest monsoon completely withdrew on Monday, the conditions are not yet favourable for the northeast monsoon to set in.

    According to met department officials, the monsoon normally sets in around October 20. Chennai may get light showers because of an upper air circulation in the Comorin area. “It is normal for the monsoon to be early or late by up to seven days. What is more important is the amount of rainfall it brings,” said S. R. Ramanan, director, Area Cyclone Warning Centre.

    A typhoon in Philippines that made landfall on Saturday was a major reason behind the delay in the onset of monsoon, added officials.

    K. Srikanth who blogs at Chennaiyil Oru Mazhaikalam said: “The typhoon that made landfall in Philippines has changed the wind pattern around Andaman Islands, which usually pushes moisture to the Tamil Nadu coast.”

    Mr. Srikanth said weather factors like El-nino are likely to be favourable for the monsoon. Chennai has experienced above-average rainfall on nearly 70 per cent of the El-nino years from 1966. A recent El-nino year was 2006 when the city had excess rainfall by 32 per cent.

    • It is official now as Dr ramanan confirmed that delay in NEM and what is important amount of rain it brings rather than onset day

  11. The South-West monsoon has exited the country 19 days after the normal date, an India Meteorological Department update said on Monday.

    This clears the way for the North-East monsoon over the five Met subdivisions in the South of the country; but the onset has already been delayed beyond the normal May 15-20 timeline.

    Surplus monsoon

    The Met has forecast a surplus North-East monsoon during the October-December season this year with rainfall expected to be 11 per cent above the long-period average (33 cm).

    The five Met subdivisions covered by the North-East monsoon are Tamil Nadu, Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema, Kerala ad South Interior Karnataka.

    The seasonal rainfall for Tamil Nadu is most likely to be above normal 12 per cent above the long period average of 43.8 cm (base period being 1951-2000), the Met said.

    The probability of an above normal North-East monsoon season rainfall over the South Peninsula and over Tamil Nadu is 88 per cent and 90 per cent respectively.

    The five Met subdivisions receive about 30 per cent of its annual rainfall during the October-December season. Tamil Nadu in particular receives about 48 per cent of its annual rainfall during this period.

    Riding El Nino

    In this manner, the North-East monsoon is expected to ride the El Nino on the Pacific that has even in the past returned good rainfall for South Peninsular India without direct cause-effect relationship. The Met bulletin on Monday did not, however, say as to when the North-East monsoon would set in over Peninsular India.

    What it did say was that the South-West Monsoon has withdrawn from remaining parts of East and Northeast India, Peninsular India, the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea.

    In recent years, its exit and the entry of the reverse monsoon (North-East monsoon) have taken place simultaneously.

    This year, two raging typhoons (‘Koppu’ and ‘Champi’) in the Northwest Pacific have sent the wind flows over upstream Bay of Bengal into disarray, upsetting the Met applecart.

    Winds in disarray

    The winds are weak north easterlies over the Bay currently, but it will not be long before they are reversed to being south-westerly under the influence of the typhoons.

    A welcome change is expected to happen around Monday when the south-westerlies flows turn around over the Gulf of Thailand to form a cyclonic circulation and reverses flows to being easterlies.

    A couple of other circulations are also expected to form over the Northeast Bay of Bengal off Myanmar and also to the south-east of Sri Lanka, both of which are ideally positioned to trigger the North-East monsoon.

    Under their influence, the rains may set in over Sri Lanka and adjoining south-east Tamil Nadu towards the end of the month, according to global forecasts.

    But most of Tamil Nadu and the rest of adjoining peninsula, except Kerala, are expected to witness deficient rainfall right until the month-end,

  12. Now Shiva and Vela are the two expecting Chennai to get more than 300 MM this October. NEM onset happens on 28th. Nunga already got 84 MM, it has to score another 270 MM in last 4 days time.

  13. The lower level analysis from the IMD GFS indicates the regions of net ascent and descent motions, which can be seen from the flow curvatures in the boxes above 15 N and 10 N to 10 S. The net precipitable water content that was increasing along TN coast and Comorin sea on the account of the UAC over the past 2-3 days is slowly moving westward and the effect of Indian lower level high pressure is getting down on the latitude slowly. The impact of TY Koppu is also quite evident on the flow changes happening near the Andaman Islands.

  14. all are forcasting above normal rains for TN and some are forcasting excess rainfall including models and weather apps lets see wht nature can do with all the things he /she had. but i also feel NEM will not fail this time because there is elnino.week +veiod which is good for us (NTN/SAP).mjo at phase 2 .

  15. Selva and GTS,

    I still feel that NEM can be forecasted, I will not accept people say it is unpredictable. You guys also know that is possible, we just need to go in depth to analyse and forecast. The infra we have as KEA Bloggers it is tough. IMD can do it with perfection in future.

    • Partha, it is only about the present day skills and knowledge being lesser for NEM predictions as experts claim. It is not something that can never be predicted with good accuracy. Scientists are working on it and it is not so far that the success rate will increase. Unlearning and Relearning things is very common.

      • Whatever the technology we may have, i am not into it, but i am quiet against the concept of saying NEM is Unpredictable. I am sure it is Predictable.

    • the relationship which nem possess is liable to change every 5 year to 10 year. now if nem has good relationship with enso,it may change in next 5 years or the relationship weaken or even get reverse..and next 5 years iod relationship might strengthen.. like wise the variability happens with many other global index.. by the time we find a relationship monsoon might end.. most erratic in nature

      • instead of going by the events like ENSO or IOD we can go by the atmospheric averages of the month or previous month. Even IMD take the values of September and also Feb when giving LRF, i remember reading those in IMD page, but nowadays they are not saying it clearly.

        If you say that ELNINO will bring NEM success then it is very generic statement, because ELNINO has failed the NEM too. Hence the atmospheric and oceanic conditions are not similar during same events. This is why i am saying that we should not predict NEM based on events, it should be analysed on the broader perspective. It can be achieved one day.

      • Can you eloborate on statistical significance? How is it done actually. What are all the things that go into getting it done , say for rainfall, co relationship etc..

  16. A welcome change is expected to happen around Monday when the south-westerlies flows turn around over the
    Gulf of Thailand to form a cyclonic circulation and reverses flows to being easterlies.
    A couple of other circulations are also expected to form over the Northeast Bay of Bengal off
    Myanmar and also to the south-east of Sri Lanka, both of which are ideally positioned to trigger the North-East monsoon.
    Under their influence, the rains may set in over Sri Lanka and adjoining south-east Tamil Nadu towards the
    end of the month, according to global forecasts.
    But most of Tamil Nadu and the rest of adjoining peninsula, except Kerala, are expected to witness
    deficient rainfall right until the month-end, these forecasts say.
    http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/economy/agri-business/met-sees-surplus-reverse-monsoon-for-south/article7780942.ece

    • He mentions it as the withdrawal from the country has taken place after 19 days from normal, and has quoted IMD said so. I doubt on this, as the IMD charts itself keep the withdrawal line of SWM as only 15th Oct near 15N latitude.

      • some parts of this article are repeating for the past 10 days or so, i’m also seeing this, may be like our IMD who are some times copy and paste the same reports with slight modifications, they are also doing this, i think so

  17. Vizag: IMD assistant meteorologist for Hyderabad Centre, N Narasimha Rao, said the monsoon withdrew on October 19 this year as against October 18 last year. “The monsoon brought normal rainfall this year like in 2013. Last year (2014), the withdraw of southwest and onset of northeast monsoon happened simultaneously on October 18. However, this year the northeast monsoon is yet to hit south India. It will sweep across southern India by entering through south coastal AP and Rayalaseema,” Narasimha Rao told T.O.I

    t.o.i

  18. Rainfall in and around chennai till sep 30
    Average – 543 mm
    —————————————————————————————-
    Poonthamalle – 702 mm
    Poondi. – 618 mm
    Meenambakkam – 571 mm
    Tamaraipakkam ( avadi) – 551 mm
    Red hills ( puzhal) – 542 mm
    Cholavaram – 537 mm
    Chembarambakkam – 518 mm
    Nungambakkam ( city) – 430 mm
    Tambaram – 419 mm
    —————————————————————————————

  19. Good morning.

    My outlook for NEM 2015
    Onset date: 27 Oct

    Oct: Not expecting more than 200 mm starting today

    Nov : At least 500 mm. Don’t be surprised if we get more than 700 mm. A couple of systems possible.

    Dec: Around 300 mm

    This NEM will be surplus. No doubt about that. Late ah vandhalum latest ah Varum :p

  20. India’s back-to-back drought is likely to end in winter with the weather department predicting higher-than-normal rainfall between October and December in the southern part of the country and normal rains in the rest, boosting prospects of the winter harvest.
    The special forecast made jointly with the weather bureaus of eight South Asian countries comes as a relief after a near dry summer sent food prices spiralling and stoked rural distress. Poor winter rains could deepen the crisis.
    “Normal to above normal rainfall is likely during the 2015 northeast monsoon season (October–December) over southern parts of South Asia including southeast peninsular India, Sri Lanka and Maldives. During the season, normal
    to above normal temperatures are likely, over most parts of the region,” the consensus forecast says
    http://www.hindustantimes.com/india/winter-monsoon-set-to-quench-southern-states/story-X4MaR7v0DPMLN5FzYXvynM.html

  21. We have a feeling that whenever wind speed increases on a rainy day it becomes cold. Does the temp. drop in the air when it is windy ? Any guesses ?

      • during monsoon time cloud temp will be lesser in comparing to cloud developed during summer.

        the cloud temp will be more cooler during summer time as the condensation forms faster and deeper and when rain pours it cools the land faster, but during monsoon time the surface will be cooler always hence the condensation will be with lesser temp over the cloud and the rain coming out from that cloud is not helping the surface to cool further.

    • Wind blows from HPA to LPA area. Wind speed depend on the pressure differences between the high and low pressure systems. Fast winds often occur near LPA or Cold Fronts. Wind will be faster when it is blown through a narrow space. The strength of the Cold front formed between HPA and LPA decides the cooler temp in air.

  22. now thailand meterology says the winds turns south westerly and rains are possible from south. but they said this condition would undergo a change within 24 hours. Andaman sea winds are at present still south westerly and so unless there is a change in the wind pattern, the moisture clouds may not reach the coastal areas of tamil nadu. But IMD is telling it would take further 7 days to change, which i think they are telling it more on the cautious side. i still feel rains would come back soon. – may be within 24 to 48 hours. let us hope for the best, as entire chennai city is totally dry after very hot days for the past 10 days. though we received some rains yesterday, it is of no use, as no water gone down to bore-wells

    ss

      • Rather to say as prediction , I would just say as my interpretation from my observation of models and charts. The rains may commence after 28th Oct .

      • 28th means we will be missing most of the october rains. it is really unfortunate to loose nearly 40 centimeters of rain. too difficult to overcome the deficit. i think by january, the entire city needs to be evacuated due to water shortage. no one is taking any action to bring water. what a pity. But still nature can turn the tables. I am still not very much convinced with these models forecasts

        SS

      • Delayed onset does not always go in with a deficit Monsoon. It all depends on the duration and frequency of active spells in the total season. October deficit is still a cause to worry, but it it can be balanced in Nov and Dec, it might end on a positive season for the region.

      • i recall chennai city received more than 100 centimeters in october 2005. by december first week normally the rain belt would shift below 10 north latitude. so chennai will be left high and dry. October is the real crucial month to give a grand start to end up well.

        ss

      • Yes I agree on the benefit of Oct rains for Chennai latitude region. But apart from general southward movement of the ITCZ, systems can come out of the shell. But still if one goes by the forecast, the probability of S.TN getting the taste of excess is much higher than N.TN districts relatively.

      • SS,
        Seems you are ringing the alam bells so soon…
        Btw, 400 mm is excess rains for October as per the average rains ..
        I will be contented even if we get around 250 to 300 mm by October 31st.

      • SS,
        Seems you are ringing the alarm bells so soon…
        Btw, 400 mm is excess rains for October as per the average rains ..
        I will be contented even if we get around 250 to 300 mm by October 31st.

  23. Madden-Julian Oscillation is forecast to strengthen

    – Climate models are forecasting the Madden—Julian Oscillation (MJO) signal to strengthen and move over the Indian Ocean in the next two weeks

    – With the MJO over the Indian Ocean for the coming fortnight, northern Australia can expect less rainfall

  24. Tropical cyclone activity persists across Pacific Ocean

    – Super typhoon Koppu made landfall on the Philippines causing significant damage

    – A second typhoon, and a strong hurricane, are also currently over the Pacific Ocean

  25. Pacific and Indian Oceans reinforcing dry conditions

    – The combination of El Niño and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole typically leads to drier-than-average conditions across northern Australia

    – The monsoon onset date is expected to be later than normal

  26. Omg Pillur Dam records 145 mm, Bhavani dam can get more inflow. It seems a cloud burst has happened. Entire Erode District battered too. As usual kanyakumari dt record widespread rains.

  27. PJ wants me to be positive this November. I don’t know how I can be even more positive. I have been expecting a very good NEM 2015 since start of NEM 2014 itself.
    As October rains have failed to materialise, November automatically will be very very wet.

    • How do you day that October 2015 rains have failed. One LPa around GOM can give 300 mm in few days time. Better to keep the nails in your pocket rather than nailing it in the coffin so soon..

  28. i think people are more against media, and it articles, exactly before 20 days, a report from business line quoted that U.S weather agency has forecasted, that India may receive S.W.M rains at least till mid october, and that what happened in real, when every one expected early on set of nem, i’m not fully support media, but there is no reason to go against them, we have to pick the content what is more apt, and should ignore others

    • Yes Sir , absolutely right. The opinions and information they bring to common people like me is a work to acknowledge. My only concern was that , I just kept myself in a situation currently as a school student or a beginner in looking at the weather. If that is the case, I may not be able to differentiate about correct and incorrect details. Errors do happen , and we may not just blame on the author for it. It comes out of many hands until it gets printed.

      • pl, avoid sir,i think every one is matured enough to say what is right, or wrong, i think a student at the age of 7/8 have more knowledge than me, when we associate with media, whether it is print media or visual, i think it is not at all fair to go against them, of course every one have right to say their opinion, but what i’m thinking is whether we are going overboard, when criticize others, whether ii is against media, Imd, or any other things,
        sorry if my comment hurts any one

      • Yeah agree with your opinion. It was just out of some curiosity I gave my opinion on the content in media, feeling that it could have been corrected at someone’s notice.

  29. can any one clarify the north east monsoon winds impacted by west pacific ocean than bay of bengal, which is thousands of miles away.

    SS.

  30. Selva,

    How can you say that Oceanic conditions are the base for any events?
    I feel that the Atmospheric Anomalous Conditions are driving force for ENSO and IOD events.

    • partha, oceans kickstart and atmosphere maintains… soi is the atmospheric component of enso,you will not see soi in strong negative during cold phase of enso and strong positive during warm phase.

      • most of my research papers are originated from IRIDL-Columbia, i think this can be reliable to some extent than others.

        From this i read whatever i said here about IOD, there is a process difference in IO and Pacific. Pacific can change faster than IO. The penetration of heat over sea water depends on the wind direction. If wind direction is condusive, then it is easy for sun rays to enter subsurface of the ocean and start to heat it, also the wind pattern will decide on the upwelling/downwelling process and also ignites the ocean current and this indirectly creates tropical waves and causes changes in weather pattern across the globe.

      • tat is the basic difference..our indian ocean is small,landlocked unlike pacific.. see the variability depends upon the sst, overlying circulation and with that conditions they trigger deep convection round the year.. entire process wont be same here

      • yes selva, this is the answer i wanted from you and gts, i heard someone saying that process is same across basins.

        anyway lets move on to other topics, thanks for your and gts time.

  31. The main reason for the cold feel that we have on windy conditions on a rainy day has to do with just simple heat transfer mechanisms. In actual , the temp. does not reduce with winds, but it is something to do with the heat transfers around our human body. Under calm winds, the heat that our body generates stays close to the skin and gets diluted gradually into the surrounding air. But , in th case of windy situations , that rate of heat generated from our body is slower relatively, that the rate at which the heat is removed from the skin by winds. This imbalance creates a feel in us that it is colder when the wind blows, and there is not much reduction in the air temperature actually.

  32. Relationship between Elnino and phytoplanktons

    Elnino causes reduced upwelling, with warmer water and less phytoplankton and vice versa during lanina.

    But apart from this, presence of phytoplanktons in sea have effects on sea surface temperature.

    So it is not sure always which is the effect and which is the cause

  33. The blue line from West indicates that MJO arrived in Phase 1 and the moisture will move towards us in the coming days. The positive phase of MJO in Bay will slowly move and ACC will move away from us after 24th.

    Kelvin has moved into Phase 2 with strong amplitude. I think it will not lose its strength in Phase 3 also, forecast will change. If it does not lose its strength in Phase 3 then the IOD values will come down and also MJO will be stronger after 24th and into November.

  34. With so many interesting questions from Paartha to Zen/GTS..It surprises he doesn’t turn up for any of the official / unofficial meets or get together. Till date, he has kept himself away. Paartha, I’ve reserved a seat at TP exclusively for you with Arun ice cream Maharaja Kulfi n Srivaari Coffee. When are you coming..

  35. OMG…it looks discussion going agai till today. It’s better to go through this link before blaming unnecessarily others. Please refers paragraph 2 first 3 lines (I can not copy and paste here those lines) which stating that “ocean currents constitutes climate/atmosphere of many regions on the earth”. Ocean currents are very important part of our earth atmosphere. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ocean_current

    • Surface oceanic currents are sometimes wind driven and develop their typical clockwise spirals in the northern hemisphere and counterclockwise rotation in the southern hemisphere because of imposed wind stresses

      • I never denied these points. Had I?? I told Ocean currents (under water & surface water) are very important, which constitutes atmosphere of the earth.

    • Upwelling/down welling mechanisms taking place due to combination of 2 factors 1) heat difference 2) earth coriolois force near equator (near equator) 3) adding 3 rd point difference in densities of water. These concepts are simple basic fundamental points, which no one here denying. It’s better to restrain others unnessay blaming others without going deeper into the mechanisms.

    • From that link : “An ocean current is a continuous, directed movement of seawater generated by forces acting upon this mean flow, such as breaking waves, wind, the Coriolis effect,cabbeling, temperature and salinity differences, “

  36. Mr.parthasri.

    I value your inputs, as i used to see lot of interesting study/observations in your mail.. R u confident that rains would commence only by 28th night. You go by what you derive out of models or you have your own model.

    ss

      • purely your guess or intution. still you have good knowledge in this subject. astrologically talking these are all period supposed to give rains. in fact from tomorrow evening to another fortnight, very good moon’s influence can trigger a good system in bay. let us wait and watch

        ss

  37. THE CHIEF AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL RECORDED IN

    CENTIMETERS AT 0830 HOURS IST ON

    20-10-2015

    Colachel (Kanyakumari Dist) 7

    Eraniel (Kanyakumari Dist) 6

    Sathyamangalam (Erode Dist) 5

    Mettupalayam (Coimbatore Dist), Kangeyam (Tiruppur Dist), Pudukottai (Pudukkottai Dist) 4 each

    Bhavanisagar (Erode Dist), Attur (Salem Dist), Kumarapalayam (Namakkal Dist), Mylaudy (Kanyakumari Dist), Shencottah (Tirunelveli Dist), Chengam (Tiruvannamalai Dist), Coonoor pto (Nilgiris Dist), Coonoor (Nilgiris Dist), Sankaridurg (Salem Dist)

    3 each

    K bridge (Nilgiris Dist), Manimutharu (Tirunelveli Dist), Perundurai (Erode Dist), Thoothukudi port AWS (Toothukudi Dist), Srivaikuntam (Toothukudi Dist), Yercaud (Salem Dist), Madurai south (Madurai Dist), Bodinaickanur (Theni Dist), Arantangi (Pudukkottai Dist), Avinasi (Tiruppur Dist), Sivakasi (Virudhunagar Dist), Paramathivelur (Namakkal Dist), Ambasamudram (Tirunelveli Dist), Kovilankulam (Virudhunagar Dist), Bodinayakanur arg (Theni Dist), Sankarankoil (Tirunelveli Dist)

    2 each

    Papanasam (Tirunelveli Dist), Kalugumalai (Toothukudi Dist), Melur (Madurai Dist), Bhavani (Erode Dist), Nagercoil (Kanyakumari Dist), Satankulam (Toothukudi Dist), Periyanaickenpalayam (Coimbatore Dist), SenDamangalam (Namakkal Dist), Vazhapadi (Salem Dist), Bhoothapandy (Kanyakumari Dist), Sattur (Virudhunagar Dist), Thammampatty (Salem Dist), Tiruchendur (Toothukudi Dist), Kovilpatti (Toothukudi Dist), Gobichettipalayam (Erode Dist), Natham (Dindigul Dist), Thuckalay (Kanyakumari Dist), Namakkal (Namakkal Dist), Pennagaram (Dharmapuri Dist), Thenkasi (Tirunelveli Dist), Nanguneri (Tirunelveli Dist)

    1 each

  38. One finest observation is that this time NEM might be triggered by Kelvin and Rossby together by 28th. We may not need to wait till 28th night, it can be earlier but not much earlier and likely by 27th overnight or 28th morning.

    The onset might be through a form of severe thunderstorms from mid level, then heavy rainfall continued during the day as the lower level takes charge without thunder or lightning.

    MJO will take charge from 01st November. By that time IOD would be weakened.

  39. This NEM looks like George Orwell’s 1984. The meaningful rains will be starting only in Nov 1st or 2nd week by a deep depression or even a CAT 2 level cyclone which i think Rao is predicting.

  40. Diwali might just escape. The 10th November might just escape from rains, people can burst crackers, i don’t know how much damage would have happened already due to heavy rainfall during the first week.

    Onset by 28th and moderate rainfall from 28th to 30th.
    November 01st to 05th continuous rainfall period.
    Once again from 11th to 16th November more rain expected.

  41. Friends, These are undeniable facts 1) water flows from more height areas to lower height area on the surface of the earth 2) heat transfers from more heat to low heat areas based on temperature gradient 3) winds moves from high pressure areas to low pressure areas based on pressure gradient 4) electricity transfers from +be terminal to -ve terminal 5) electron flows from -ve to +ve 6) magnetic lines travel from North Pole to South Pole ……and one can add any “basic fundamental points of physics.” Note: here 3rd basic fundamental point arising from temperature gradient where ocean currents playing important role to create lot of our planet’s weather driving indexes like ONI, IOD, NAO, AO, SOI, etc…

  42. Please update me any system (apart from NEM onset) formation probability by models. I am eagerly waiting for the 1st NEM system to strike NTN/SAP at any cost.😆👍

  43. JTWC downgraded the west pacific system from rating 6 to 1.5 in the latest report. in another 12 hours, this system would become an ordinary low pressure system. so we can expect some normal wind pattern within 24 hour maximum. the other west pacific system has no impact as it is at present in 140 east

    ss

  44. SWM-2015 LPAs tasted the rapid strengthening within no time either over land or BOB/Arabian unexpectedly. Cyclone Komen is one among them. Need to monitor how a LPA during NEM behaves in BOB/Arabian that too within the vicinity of Equatorial waves. Will The forecasted LPA by October 27th intensify to a tropical storm to target NTN/SAP?? Time will say the reality 👍😆😆

  45. @pradeep_john:disqus @disqus_cJHlx6B4nk:disqus
    what were you referring to by name in an earlier conversation? Did the 2005 October historic rains happen on 28th and 29th Oct?

    • 1. “The effect of El Niño in winter is qualitatively similar to the effect of La Niña in summer. These effects occur when the phases of Pacific warming and the annual solar cycle coincide”

      2. “The scientists emphasize that this mechanism provides a fundamentally new way to understand variability in the atmosphere on a large range of timescales and can be applied to a number of different climate phenomena.”

      To my observation:

      They empathize on learning the atmosphere changes during ELNINO years. There is a difference in atmospheric pressure and conditions even during same ELNINO years, based on this only i have given the NEM LRF.

      All ELNINO years are not same in terms of Atmospheric Conditions.

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