Rains to continue in South TN & Kerala

An Upper Air Cyclonic Circulation (UAC) persists near the Comorin area and adjoining South TN. This would influence the lower level air rotation and the available positive vorticity can generate rain clouds in the region. These rain clouds can generate and extend rains in south TN, adjoining Kerala and some isolated parts of Central Coastal TN as well. Ghat areas bordering TN and Kerala can get some moderate to heavy showers during the same period. In the far north, an eastward moving UAC can generate rain clouds along areas of Jammu & Kashmir and parts of Himachal Pradesh.

ezindia1_day2sector-irc

Chennai’s day break will be filled with some patches of cumulus clouds with a bit of haze prevailing until the noon hours. Maximum temp. will settle down around 34 C

Coimbatore will stay partly cloudy with a maximum day time temp recording close to 33-34 C

Vellore will have a cloudy day with the max temp hovering around 33 C

Madurai could stay quite warm and humid along with infrequent patches of dark clouds. Maximum will stay close to 33 -34 C. Rain chance persists.

Trichy will stay sunny and max. temp will inch close to 33 C.

1,629 thoughts on “Rains to continue in South TN & Kerala

    • Still NEM yet to sets in. Rains are considered as NEM for the period of oct to dec but before onset the rains are actually called by Pre NEM Rains.

      • IMD have some symptons to be called NEM, IMD is correct.
        We can’t call Oct rains from east as NEM even in may to sep we can UAC developing over bay and winds from east. So these showers are only pre NEM rains. NEM monsoon showers must be widespread along TN & S.AP Coasts

      • It is irrelevant to us. Their rules are for handling official data easily. What if no widespread rains till December? That means no NEM this year?

      • There won’t be such conditions prevail over Tamilnadu between oct – dec.
        During Monsoon we see Widespread Showers surely. We need Widespread showers atleast for the onset.
        Yesterday these clouds present till delta now it has climbed up to SHAR. Conditions slowly improve for NEM Onset in next 2 days

  1. gud morning blogers .today it was more cloudy thn yesterday .today i saw more low level clouds moving in east to west direction .so things are changing fastly evn in the presence of koppu.so this NEM is trying its best to TN and chennai and hope it will sucess .so happy days ahead .dont see models it will change thousand time before onset .belive nature rest it will do fr usπŸ˜‰

  2. Koppu has losing the power than what expected. It will change to normal depression on tomorrow. so from tomorrow the forecast will change of BOB.

  3. Breaking news.

    Heavy downpour in my area for 5 minutes from the first easterly cloud!!!!!πŸ˜€
    Omg omg omg.

  4. NET Rocks.
    After Low clouds formation yesterday night I confirmed that Rains will lash parts of city by early morning. Its SuccessπŸ™‚

  5. Enjoyed Heavy rains in Parts of T.Nagar…..Brief Dumping rains in Panagal Park,T.Nagar bus stand,Burkit Road etc….but my area missed it

  6. Comedy happening here one part of Habibullah Road and Bazulla Road has recieved rain but other part has missed it

  7. 1) Finally our forecast 18th/19th has come true – Jeetu’s second bulls eye (2) When I met @ Raghavendra Madipakkam yesterday morning around 10.30am I told him the possibilities of rain and he looked at me differently after seeing the hot sun.(3) We had around 1.30 some rains, second bout at 6.am. and the third round is going on

  8. I feel we are still days away from onset? IMD cannot suddenly declare it. They have to say conditions favourable for further withdrawal of SWM and onset of NEM in 2-3 days. Even that has not been mentioned yet.

  9. Nothing here so far, but dense cumulus around! Happy NEM 2015!!!!!πŸ˜ŠπŸ˜ŠπŸ˜€πŸ˜€LET THE EASTERLIES STRENGHTEN.

  10. Unfortunately earlier MJSOI-1G (general phase diagram, Figure 1) can not explain BOB-tropical system’s landfall when MJO enters Indian ocean at phases 2&3 with SOI below -10 in moderate to strong Elnino years.

    So herein I propose MJSOI*-1G (Figure 2) to address the situation arising from MJO & SOI in moderate to strong Elnino years as per III(iii) in Figure 1 to estimate the track of BOB-tropical systems.

    Figure 1:
    MJSOI-1G (general phase diagram): http://s23.postimg.org/sa1o7uhpn/MJSOI_1_G_3_page1_Page_1.jpg

    Figure 2:
    MJSOI*-1G: http://s30.postimg.org/moiu9pt35/MJSOI_1_GE_Page_1.jpg

    • Susa, this diagram will decide the fate of this systemπŸ‘πŸ˜†http://s30.postimg.org/moiu9pt35/MJSOI_1_GE_Page_1.jpg

  11. Monsoon plays truant, runs late by over a week in Chennai
    -Read what Pradeep John’s views on NEM to TOI
    ————

    “Last year, the northeast monsoon hit the state on October 18. The typhoon Koppu has stalled the easterly winds that enter the Bay of Bengal from South China Sea. This will impact the monsoon,” said independent weather blogger Pradeep John.

    The delay is unlikely to impact the amount of rainfall the state receives. “For example, in 1918, October received only 11mm of rainfall, the following November, the state received 1,088 mm of rainfall. This year, too, all the climatic parameters hint at a good northeast monsoon,” Pradeep said.

    http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/chennai/Monsoon-plays-truant-runs-late-by-over-a-week-in-Chennai/articleshow/49446047.cms

      • Yes.. you were right sir .. isolated rains in chennai .. pullayar suzhi vechachu .. but can’t expect anything big before 27th

  12. Summary: “The northeast monsoon usually sets in once the southwest monsoon has completely retreated. The northeast monsoon usually sets in between October 17 and 21, with a deviation of about a week on either sides. CHENNAI: The city may have to wait a week longer before they unfurl their umbrellas, as the weatherman has forecast a delayed northeast monsoon. During the northeast monsoon, the rainfall usually occurs between midnight and 9am. This year, too, all the climatic parameters hint at a good northeast monsoon,” Pradeep said.

    http://www.nyoooz.com/chennai/235062/monsoon-plays-truant-runs-late-by-over-a-week-in-chennai

  13. Kottivakkam had refreshing early morning showers today. A change in wind pattern was very evident this morning with easterly winds stronger even at surface levels often subduing the land breeze. Looks like a good start for NEM season though the official start date could be few days away.

      • Yes. It is just the beginning. I hope and wish it becomes widespread soon enough for IMD to announce its arrival. What I felt was a significant seasonal
        change at ground level during my morning jog, no matter how subjective my feeling wasπŸ™‚

  14. NEM is around the corner, can expect it later this week. Today’s morning showers and definite change in wind pattern support it.

  15. 1st NEM system getting ready so soon to hit NTN/SAP centering Chennai. This will be big system after 1994 Chennai system. Be preparedπŸ‘πŸ˜†

  16. This NEM is very vital for chennai’s drinking water needs, position of storage looks at its worst levels. Hope 2005 is repeated.

    • Whose that?? If it’s me one can find the answer in my recent arguments with Susa (discussed using earth null school). I argued with Susa recently by telling once after Koppu’s weakening there will be surge in NEM that would give NEM rains. That’s happening nowπŸ˜€πŸ˜€πŸ˜€

  17. Hi All,

    How are you?
    Happy to see IMD prediction in line with mine about NEM LRF.

    We had heavy spell for half an hour today morning, the sound of rain was deafening. I am sure 1-2 CM in my area.

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