Most parts of Indian subcontinent apart from southern peninsula and some parts of east India is getting filled in by the continental dry air gradually, which indicates the exit of south west Monsoon (SWM) from most parts of the country. Conditions are favorable for further withdrawal of SWM from remaining parts of east India during the next 3 days.
Meanwhile, a trough in the easterlies running from south west Bay up to west central Bay off Andhra coast may trigger some rainfall across parts of coastal Andhra Pradesh. Also, isolated parts of south TN and some parts of Kerala and Lakshadweep will experience some rains during the next 24 hours, from the westward moving
Upper Air Circulation (UAC) near Comorin area.
Chennai will see a partly cloudy sky with some haze. Maximum day time temperature will hover around 33 C.
Coimbatore to see mostly clear skies with few cloud patches. Maximum temperature will stay around 32 C.
Vellore is in for another comfortable day with day time highs just settling about 31-32 C.
Madurai will have sunny day with maximum day time high settling around the low to mid-thirties. Possibility of isolated light rains persists.
Trichy is in for a sunny day with maximum inching close to 33-34C.
KeaWeather Archives 
First comment 😁🎉 In new topic .
Good morning friends . Ts started to popup in sea in early morning hours , that is good sign . And chances of rain for Chennai and north coastal Tamil Nadu is very high on 18-20th October. Again after small break by 3-4days rain will return with a bang On October 24- 30 and that will be our NEM onset 😁 .
Hope my first comment , will bring strong easterlies towards Tamilnadu .
What’s happening to GFS? It is showing now rains from 27th
Don’t worry kea . Rain should be back by maximum October 24th
Good full match confirmed
Ha..ha..much according to the expectations due to koppu’s weakening 👍😆
Foggy morning & Winter like conditions
A coool weather
Good morning friend s
Read a news item in TOI predicting above average NEM this year
Past year October month 40 cm November month 33 cm something & December 24 or 28cm in chidambaram but this year only 2cm in October only 13 days remaning any possible to reached in normal Oct rain
Naveen , Chidambaram going to get a heavy rain in coming days , which will bring normal rains to october
A ‘Desire’ changes nothing,
A ‘Decision’ changes something but…
A ‘Determination’
changes everything…
If we realize Our Qualities, we Become Smart…
If we know Our Weakneses, we Become Intelligent…
And
If we know Both, we Become Successful…
Have a Great day ahead,
Come on cheer up guys – NEM Team
🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏💐💐💐💐💥🎉🎁🎁🌹🌹🍷🍷🎊🎊
welcome back Vela. Hope you recovered completely 🙂
Hopefully NEM knows it’s weakness and become stronger than Pacific typhoon
lol 🙂
Wow.. Good confidence comment for a day to start.. Nice..
TY Koppu to peak at 120 knots.
Guru 12o = 120 knots or 12×15 (15th alphabet “o”) = 180 knots?
Yeah Gaje , it was a typo. Please refresh.
Significant wave height is 10 m near the center of koppu
Strong Dual outflow clearly evident…
As expected pre NEM Showers on the way to Coastal TN. Radar active
whn it will reach us
Dry air near chennai still dissipates clouds.
http://www.imd.gov.in/section/satmet/dynamic/insatsector-wv.htm
More storms forming now . Hopefully Chennai will get the heavy rain from tomorrow
hmm
Chennai only or entire costal tn
Eye drilling has begun . Just have a look at the developing bore well. Hot towers close to eye must be stressing on the tropopause area…please refresh or open in new tab for the actual current loop..
gud morning blogers 😉
Good morning Anna
Oct 17 2015 : The Times of India (Chennai)
TN may get good winter rains: Global forecasts
Amit Bhattacharya
Winter this year is expected to be mild over most parts of the country with above-normal average temperatures, according to global climate forecasts and projections at a South Asian climate conference that concluded in Chennai on Thursday .
Experts gathered at the first Winter South Asian Climate Outlook Forum (WinSoscof) released a consensus statement that also predicted above normal winter monsoon rainfall in Tamil Nadu in the October-December period. The state receives most of its rainfall during this period.
“During the season, normal to above normal temperatures are likely over most parts of the region,“ the statement added.
It noted the continuing presence of El Nino conditions over the Pacific Ocean which are known to strengthen the northeast monsoon circulation and enhance rainfall over the country’s southern peninsula.
The statement said there was unanimity over El Nino continuing through the winter season. While the overall conditions looked good for the northeast monsoon, localised weather conditions also play a role in enhancing or depressing the total amount of rainfall in the season, which made predictions difficult, it noted.
The projections are consistent with seasonal forecasts from major international weather agencies. For instance, the long range forecast map issued by European agency ECMWF for November-January period shows average temperatures 1°C to 2°C above normal over most of India, barring southern TN and the northeast.
Such seasonal predictions give an average temperature anomaly for the entire period.That means, although there could be cold spells during the season but the average temperatures over the period would be above normal.
But Yadav sounded a note of caution. “While most models show mild winter this year in India, the season is still a few months away . Forecasts with such long lead times have less accuracy than shorterrange predictions,“ he said.
Currently at 105 knots and 944 mb
Tiny Ts over North east of Chennai .
Will it reach Chennai?
No Dry Air Will Tear it into dusts…..
All features evident to grow into a mature storm. Distinct primary and secondary bands visible. Secondary band is infact filled in with convective deep clusters arranged in the ring towards the eye. Monster out within the eye wall and coincides with the rapid deepening and intensification. Nothing to stop it as of now. 35 million people out there will face wind speeds of about 100 and 180 kmph. Early morning LF expected as of now. Howling sounds will be the most scary thing out there tomorrow….
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tc/2015_24W/webManager/basicGifDisplay.html
Asusual Stupid GFS Postponed Rains to 27th ): ):
Stupid rains or stupid GFS?
It’s GFS Who is Stupid.
Patience is key
It’s Now Been A Week Since We Got Any Rain
Koppu stands aligned almost from surface to at about 12 km height. Vortex is currently in full blown status. Wind field is just at perfect symmetry. No doubt VWS is less than 10 knots. No hammer blow effect.
Will this happen in Chennai?
The last time I saw this kind of forecast and graphics was for cyclone Nilam. Remember it was showing max. 25/26 C , winds from NNW @ 119 kmph , two days b4 LF.
One pic that could explain whats happening and y its happening?.. this is one of the major suppression in this year after early july ..anyway this was expected… courtesy- elnino +typhoons http://s14.postimg.org/co6nzs2lt/vpt_7day_figb.gif
Is onset possible between 22 and 26 as per whatsapp group? I strongly doubt it
The “Key” man of this blog never believes in rains and ironically he runs this show!!
POINTU.
Karaikal monsoon clouds last year
So no Karaikal radar this year.
last yr onset was on 17 or 18 ? :0
17 October
ohh then today only!!! super.
Got holiday too 😁
My area Marina DGP Got – 181 mm !!!!
Wow 😂
after this day only dog heat .this year its diffrent today dog heat and after tht. ;( 😉
yes yes…
Last three years started between 16 to 20th and this year?
guys whn will dry air near chennai will leave us ;(. once if eastetlies sets or before that ?
OMG Accu gone crazy for Novemeber. Accu is based on GFS. Its showing historic November. Just to boost our morale.
http://www.accuweather.com/en/in/chennai/206671/november-weather/206671?monyr=11/1/2015&view=table
Accu showed Historic SEP but It all went in Vain. hope that doesn’t happen in NOV.
Good morning PJ
Accuweather is based on CFS
Overall Predicts 459 mm For Chennai.
Pj can u post last year NEM onset rains??
radar ?
If possible post radar too
Boost is the secret energy of NEM.. ☔
its showing non stop rains for first 15 days .;)
Free Advice – Don’t Believe This Accuweather… Romba ketta paiyan sir intha accuweather.
for all 30 days.
Sat starts with too hot!
PJ any miracle is possible early next week in bay?
Good morng frnds.. Nice to see radar getting active in morng hrs. Good signs of our NEM.. Isolated TS may enter to North of chennai..
Expecting early onset on schedule…..Raja something tells me…Everything is going to happen soon. we can see onset before 20th.
Still 3days away 😂
NEM is going is to surprise us?
Pj suddenly you are very posutive sounds good. ..on annd off showers expected til 24 25 guess befire the big one
Clouds ☁ r coming perfectly from East.. Again a good sign to get a early morng showers within in a day or two..
varthu varthu 😉
Today’s IMD Afternoon Report holds the key!
Good morning.
None of the models expect even 5-10mm rainfall during 17th -20th!
Let’s see.With active radar from today..we may witness some useful on and off showers soon!
More like pre-NEM rains☔️
But in nellore it is so hot and sweaty lot of lower level of clouds
Koppu a Cat-3 Typhoon with wind speeds around 203Km/hr gusting at 249km/hr!
On the verge of making landfall.
One Good Thing was that these models didn’t show a cyclone cross NTNSAP and suddenly change by putting sand in our mouth and change landfall near orissa… thank god that didn’t happen.
The village man announcing the NEM
Who is village man?
PJ expects NEM onset within 72 hours.
How is that possible?
very much possible. see the radar. already storms have reached near chennai coast.
Yeah I am able to see low level clouds in nellore as well
And PJ says it need not rain for onset to happen. So don’t expect any rains
it need not rain in chennai. Put properly Ehsan. Other coastal places if it rains.
but i havnt seen a onset with chennai including n.tn recording no rains
i have seen onset without chennai recording rains. Where is north TN. Did i say North TN
anyhow forecast for n.tn says no rain above 11.5 N..particularly coastal stretch
s without chennai and north TN getting rains, that year NEM onset info is very difficult to accept.
NEM is going according to proper script
typically chennai-nellore stretch would get ws rains during onset..
last few years, it has been chennai – cuddalore stretch. south AP is not so lucky during the onset.
First nem rains last year poured exactly this time and this day.. Rains started exactly 9.30 am…. What a day!!! Can’t able to forget
Its all going by script. Sel Thambi….See the blog is active wap is active.
but not bay.
athku na enna panna mudiyum.
pressure chart – not satisfied
dumbell shaped wind pattern-not satisfied
widespread rains-unlikely
how come onset wud b declared?
playing devil’s advocate role properly.
Thambi romba over drill panna kudathu. Dumbelllam thuki podu.
here is dumbell – http://www.imd.gov.in/section/nhac/dynamic/nwp/48hgfs_mslp.htm
Lol..
Enga bro ..ingaya..?? Illa angaya…?
Thambi deala mera kudathu.
:D.:D
Sel, i say onset is possible. Anything can happen in next 3 days. IMD is one weird organisation. They should have NEM onset / Advance line similar too SWM.
Etho therithu???
Light’aaa!
Sirikaama Kalaikaama bathil sollunga makkale… Will it rain in Chennai on Oct 22nd (Thursday)? Planning to book tickets for the cricket match 😐
No, enjoy the match!
Book it no chance of rains.
40% rains remaining no
Lol.
ippadiyum illa appaidyum illa
Full match possible 😛
Towering clouds seen over North east .
NORMAL RAIN FALL IN THIS NEM FOR TN
Normal Rainfall (plus-minus 10 per cent of the long term mean seasonal rainfall) is expected in majority of the districts in Tamil Nadu during the North East Monsoon from October to December.
Erode, Tirupur, Salem, Dharmapuri, Thanjavur, Tiruchirapalli, Ariyalur, Perambalur, Cuddalore, Nagapattinam, Dindigul, Virudhunagar, Theni, Sivaganga, Tuticorin, Madurai, Pudukkottai, Ramanathapuram, Tiruvallur, Kancheepuram, Vellore, Chennai Tiruvannamalai, Kanyakumari, Namakkal and Krishnagiri, may receive normal rainfall, according to an analysis by Tamil Nadu Agricultural University.
Above normal rainfall is expected in Coimbatore, Karur, Tiruvarur, Tirunelveli, Villupuram and Nilgiris districts, during the period, it said.
District level rainfall forecast for the Northeast monsoon over Tamil Nadu was developed at Agro Climate Research Centre in the University, based on Southern Oscillation Index and Sea Surface Temperature values using ‘Australian Rainman International V.4.2,’ a release said.
The historical rainfall data collected from the University Research Stations was used to represent the district rainfall information and in the absence of data from research station in a particular district, data from Rainman software was used, the analysis said.
Source: Business standard
Perfect north east monsoon clouds..atlwast winds are here
Yes yes morning when i got up crystal clear blue sky now …….tomorrow rains
Come on nem
Showers waiting outside Chennai station for green signal.May arrive soon
http://www.imd.gov.in/section/satmet/dynamic/insatsector-ir.htm
IMD said 3 days for entire SWM Withdrawal and it signals it may announce NEM simultaneously
In 2000, NE Monsoon was announced by IMD with scattered showers and Chennai merely got any rain on that day.Just passing clouds and occasional showers. That year Chennai got only 40 cms rain.
Koppu to make landfall in peak strength. 120 knots. In IMD average it will be around 100 knots.
It was nothing till last night.. Skies were calm, all of sudden some activity from today morning, good to see clouds moving in from east!!!! 1st smell of nem
intensity is increasing jeet as expected. I expect rains by tomorrow. let us see
Let’s see👍
Jeet i can feel the bright sunshine and suddenly it becomes dark. Its NEM time.
Yes, change started from today mrng
Maatram ondrae marathathu.
Doubta..we know nem is here
Any rain reported from Karaikal area ?
Good to see so much positivity oozing in the blog on a Saturday morning. Hope this translates in ground reality!
Hope. Atleast blog is not so dull like past 3 days.
Yes…or-else poor rao will be on for a debate
We have already scripted the rains and hence no debate
When will be mazhai Megan part-2 will be released
We cut off the two persons sel and GTS who can bring that negative mode. Only the dry Rajesh stands in our way.
Cyclones worry about many factor’s
Let’s change them as well PJ 🙂
these two listen only to each other and maybe Vinod.
With sharing likes on barter system basis 😅😥
Already very hot outside
You expect rain late night or tomorrow morning
i am expecting a overhead pop-up.
Typical pre NEM weather will take over!
Dense cumulus around
Koppu is filled with water vapour. Condensation will be catastrophic…
Hi goku
Sollunga boss
What you feel about clouds rolling over in chn
High amounts of moisture has moved into sw bay in the last 24 hours.
Finally I got support for 19th/20th onset
Rains very near to Nagapattinam as per radar
Nagai may well receive the first rains from East for this year! Let’s not underestimate the intensity.
Karaikal Radar will be handy if it is operational now
VERY NICE Article in TOI on NEM
this year who will announce the onset first ?whether KEA or IMD ?
We have already announced the onset of 2015, 16, 17, 18 ……Any doubts there. Even quantum also..
It is already arrived!
This was GONI and ATSANI this August…
Haha..looks like Dad and son!
Lol..
just now checked 2000 November 1st conditions!! I could dumbbell shaped
wind pattern along with Chennai- nellore stretch getting rains..
*I could see
how much rain sel?
No idea.. but Decent rain cloud activities along s.ap-Chennai.. south tn is not tat active
So, no widespread rain needed across TN to declare monsoon right?
Most of the times, STN miss out on rains during Onset. WS rains in CTN and some places in NTN is good enough to call as Onset.
They have got rains during 30, 31st oct,
Very cool till now too in vellore…. Morning bit difficult in foggy morning to do yoga in training
2002 oct 31 rains from simple trough. .very heav6 2 hrs of rain 18 cms
Look at the arb sea disturbance.. they r getting some support now. Weak circulation persists
Bay pathi solla maatikura
.arb sea enjoyed in swm. It’s south bay turn
Why selllaya drilling poor nem guys
not drilling jeet.. I couldn’t see any concrete signs of nem As they see
We are happy to see nem clouds
UAC is looking good
http://www.imd.gov.in/section/nhac/dynamic/nwp/48hgfs_925wind.htm
NEM should be around the corner as PJ has become active and positive again or he has a holiday today.
holiday.
Oh then creating buildup
So, , what’syour take on NEM?
It’s filled with mysteries. Better to wait and watch patiently
Rainfall in C.TN is one of the criteria with nem onset, along with other parameters.
I still feel imd will announce onset around 28th or 29th
No comments Captain…
Is it too early or too late as per your views
I am not sure as of now
Models looking too good now for N.coastal T.N , and favouring NEM onset on 19th october
May I ask which model u r looking at?
http://www.imd.gov.in/section/nhac/dynamic/nwp/72hwrfrain.htm
Cola gfs kea s favorite output predict 0.9mm for nxt ten days tiil 26th…
Cola pola
We need to believe the model which predicts the best rain for us. All others are waste
which is the best model for NEM????
SAR model
Thank U:-)
showers from sea should have reached karikal coast
ODM/Jon favourite foreca predicting 1 mm next 5 days
Cola is not mine..
Sorry I meant foreca
Neither foreca i jst following foreca for ages since its inception but not a fan..
Leave alone onset… There’s not mch for chennai atleast till 26 as per most forecasts.. Stn may catch som rains nothing widespread forecasted
Stn recording rains daily.
Yes aware.. Jst in pockets.. Should be slightly more ws as days go by..
Yeah.. cfs strikes with pretty decent accuracy.nevertheless Ecmwf too
All output has more weightage on arabian sea for som reason
Elnino major reason along with positive iod… sst forced precipitation.
And it’s vice versa… negative iod,lanina fills bob
TY Koppu is currently getting steered along the southern periphery of the extended STR which is anchored to the NE . Dominant STR being this NE one, poleward outflows are robust and equatorward outflows are also provided by the STR , a weaker one to its NW. What else is needed. SST s close to 31 C, no hammer blow from VWS. All set in place for carnage…
Government of India
Earth System Science Organization
Ministry of Earth Sciences
India Meteorological Department
Press Release
Dated: 16 October, 2015
——————————————————————————————–
——————————————————————————————–
Forecast Outlook for 2015 NE Monsoon Season
(October–December)
Rainfall over South Peninsula
Five Meteorological
Subdivisions of Southern India namely Tamil Nadu, Coastal Andhra Pradesh,
Rayalaseema, Kerala and south interior Karnataka, receives about 30% of its
annual rainfall during the North East monsoon season (October to
December). Tamil Nadu in particular
receives about 48 % of its annual rainfall during this season.
The summary of forecasts
for 2015 North-East monsoon season’s Rainfall is given below:
1. Season’s rainfall for South Peninsula (Tamil Nadu, Coastal
Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema, Kerala and south interior Karnataka), is most
likely to be above normal (>111% of Long Period Average). The Long Period Average (LPA) of the North-East
monsoon season rainfall for the south Peninsula for the base period 1951-2000
is 332.1mm.
2. Season’s rainfall for Tamil Nadu is
most likely to be above normal (>112% of LPA). The LPA of the North-East
monsoon season rainfall for the Tamil Nadu for the base period 1951-2000 is
438.2mm.
3. The probability
of above normal 2015 North-East monsoon season rainfall over south peninsula
and over Tamil Nadu is 88% and 90% respectively.
Here it is at last….
Wow…!!!
Looks good…
Yes 😀
Excellent
the probability factor rocks.
Yes looks awesome!
This shows that IMD is foreseeing higher chances of Above Normal rains for NEM as a whole. They got Bingo on SWM prediction. Will it be second time coming? Hope they get it spot on in this one too.
Let the forecast become true,let the true monsoon of chennai once again come back with all its glory
Koppu seems slow moving n rain filled.. Extremely wet conditions n floods to affect parts of philli acc to speta..
Guys im new to here ….what will be the next naming for cyclone if formed in BOB
Chapala
If nt wrong why thy did not use the name priya asper srilanks
Guess they removed it
Welcome Vinod. Please add ur location to profile name.
Hi pradeep. Im from chetpet in chennai.But in dubai for last 14 years.Can u tell me how to edit the profile.
login to discus then u can change it.
Done sir.
welcome 😉
Thx arshad
Warm Welcome, right in time and you are coming with a bang asking for name of the cyclone that is likely during NEM, super
Bhaskaran. Im a long time weather freak frm 94 when the storm crossed near tiruvattiour and a bangla ship grounded ashore.I was at school.
Its long time we hve faced such n occurence.
We will hve a repeat of 2005 if nt more.LOL
1994 I was 40 year old
thats my cyclone. I cant forget it.
http://tamilnaduweatherman.blogspot.in/2011/12/recall-of-1994-cyclone-as-chennai-fears.html
Pradeep it was nt nilam
Thx bro
Massive towers towards w, WNW!
If nt wrong why thy did not use the name priya asper srilanka
Is koppu delaying our NE monsoon
are you really new to this blog
he just posted one comment last year – https://disqus.com/by/vinoddamodaran/
athuku koda link eduthu potutinga…you are really a data man
cheking ahh 😉
Welcome him shankaran sir.
Hi! 😊 😊 😊 😊 😊 😊,
Yes.after a year.not so active.Only active from 20 oct to 31 dec
then welcome welcome
Welcome to Kea weather blog! 😊
November first week should be the best if one goes by IMD MME…highest on positive rain anomalies scale.
Ippadithaan ellorum October best u sonnaanga ,
This may not betray us mostly .
mostly is a negative word
Seri “most probably” ..this may reduce a bit of negativity ..
Is imd released forecast with above normal rainfall in tamilnadu
yes of more than 110% and probability of 90%
Check my post below.
Yeah saw that
All eyes now on IMD Afternoon Report.
Nem forecast
Skymet – normal
Imd- above normal
Let this NEM once again prove that it the true rainy season and fill up the lakes of chennai metro water unlike the half baked rains in the months of june to September
Dont underestimate swm thunderstorm in chennai
I found sels dumbell
so soon by nov 1
Haha .. It’s nem dumbbell. not mine
http://www.imd.gov.in/section/nhac/dynamic/nwp/168hgfs_850wind.htm
What is this? Rangoonnnnn
model run not completed. See GFS. They are based on GFS. GFS has changed so will IMD.
Guys since u r at bay point.Have easterlies really set in.missing the smell in air.
Here we got really good rain from the weak depression as we had been to oman yesterday.
i can spell it so deep in Anna nagar.
Pradeep whts tht 2 huge masses in south china sea.01 is komen other?
It’s koppu and not komen
Other one is thampi ..
Champi, not thampi… Mr.Thampi is D.Dr imd Chennai
Lol .. OK OK.
LOL
Yup sorry.im worried abt the 2nd one
wow thats an improvement – http://www.imd.gov.in/section/satmet/img/3Dhalfhr_olr.jpg
shows error 404
Try this … http://www.imd.gov.in/section/satmet/img/3Dhalfhr_olr.jpg
Ur link nt opening bro
Wow IMD Predicts above Normal Rainfall over Tamilnadu and S.AP this NEM
Let’s rejoice
Opening ellam nallathan irruku
IMD has more pressure to spell their forecast accurately now compared to few years back due to media/private forecasters and KEA blogs too