Conditions turns favourable for the further withdrawal in next 3-4 days

Southwest Monsoon which was expected to withdraw on a faster pace, got disturbed for the past few days by the two low pressure systems formed either sides of the peninsular India. Now both the system have moved away allowing the withdrawal line to extend down the latitude into south India.

ezindia1_day2

Upper air cyclonic circulation persists over south TN and on the other side, Easterlies seen making an entry towards extreme parts of Bay of Bengal from east signalling the season change. Northeast Monsoon which normally set in over TN around Oct 20th with widespread showers along coastal region. This year there is a possibility of getting disturbed through west pacific typhoons. NWP MODELS are showing a full fledged strong typhoons in west pacific which may create unfavourable conditions over here in Bay of Bengal. Anyhow the conditions are getting closely monitored for any possible changes on this!!

xxirmet5n

Most parts of Tamil Nadu are expected to be dry except extreme southern Tamil Nadu districts like Kanyakumari, Tirunelveli, Tuticorin, Ramanathapuram which would see scattered thunderstorm activity.

Chennai – Dry weather expected with temp reaching max of 34c
Vellore – clear skies with temp settling near 32-33c
Madurai – partly cloudy skies expected, max temp would stay close to 34-35c.scattered showers in one or two places.
Tiruchi – day would start with clear skies leading to warm day. temp might see 34c
Coimbatore – one or two areas might see some showers with max temp 30-31c

984 thoughts on “Conditions turns favourable for the further withdrawal in next 3-4 days

    • Wow I saw it spotted easterlies. First let’s keep watch on nem onset date, upcoming cyclone and as u said IOD should be not positive. Sir we also need to see what’s the sea surface temperature, how is the vortex and sheer

  1. South-West monsoon poised to withdraw from more parts of country -ah finally farewell

    ————–

    The last vestiges of the monsoon may linger over the southern peninsula but more in technical parlance since it would have lost its capacity to rain anymore.

    Storm in Bay?

    The ‘status quo’ in the Bay of Bengal will be disrupted by the end of the month by when a low-pressure area is expected to shape up over the Andaman Sea and adjoining East Bay of Bengal.

    This could be the trigger for northeast monsoon to come to its own.

    At least two tracker models featured by the US Climate Prediction Centre pointed towards the possibility of a ‘disruptive force’ being generated in the sea during the first week of November.

    This could be in the form of a storm, likely the result of intensification of the ‘low’ in the Bay as indicated earlier.

    http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/economy/agri-business/southwest-monsoon-poised-to-withdraw-from-more-parts-of-country/article7757869.ece

    But these are early days yet and the Bay would need to be watched closely for signals of ‘cyclogenesis.

  2. Oct going in sept way. For chennai atleast. Hope nov- dec bring copious rains. Various models/news do not bring cheers. Let us believe in God and hope somehing emerge soon.

    • Raman.. let me tell you, an early onset doesn’t have to mean in any way that NEM will excess. This year it will be a bumper NEM, just wait and see. Late ah vandhalum latest ah varum😛

    • Omg, The actual season is just a week away. Why this despondency..?? So early…I guess we are expecting Total NEM rains to happen in a jiffy n that too very early.

  3. OMG..whats this?? In general a typhoon/cyclone/hurricane weakens when approaching land mass. But surprisingly few of WP-typhoons disobeying this principle. The present WP-typhoon “Koppu” forecasted to intensify to cat.4 near northern Philippines coast.

  4. SWM Toppers from 1.06.2015 to 30.09.2015
    ==========================

    Min 4000 mm

    1.Mawsynaram, Meghalaya – 11492
    2.Cherrapunji RKM, Meghalaya – 10000-10500
    3.Cherrapunji, Meghalaya – 10085
    4.Hulikal, Karnataka – 5350
    5.Mastikatte, Karnataka – 5102
    6.Agumbe, Karnataka – 4943
    7.Shiragaon, Maharashtra – 4921
    8.Lamaj, Maharashtra – 4721
    9.Yadur, Karnataka – 4704
    10.Mani, Karnataka – 4458
    11.Cogar, Karnataka – 4500
    12.Talacauvery, Karnataka – 4451
    13.Mulshi, Maharahstra – 4391
    14.Nilkund, Karnataka – 4200
    15.Kuttiyadi, Kerala ~ 4100
    16.Walvan, Maharashtra – 4050
    17.Patherpunj, Maharashtra – 4000
    18.Kollur, Karnataka ~ 4000
    19.Kerekatte, Karnataka – 4000 (till 31.08.2015)

    http://tamilnaduweatherman.blogspot.in/

  5. Just chk out the approximate size and area of the outer most closed isobar of w.pac TY which is even more larger than the size of bay….

  6. OMG…again GFS & ECMWF showing different tracks for Wp typhoon “Koppu”. As usual ECMWF track will succeed. GFS must explain why Koppu has to recurve in the absence of any strong mid-latitude westerly interaction.

  7. WP typhoon “Koppu” track and landfall prediction by 2D-Gyric map model (Figure).

    Notes:
    1. Koppu may not recurve in N/NE direction as there is no strong mid-latitude westerly trough interaction. So ECMWF track prediction will become true when compared to GFS.

    2. Koppu may make triple landfall over Philippines then followed by Taiwan and finally over East-China as per 2D-Gyric map model, which will be in close agreement with ECMWF.

    Figure:

  8. Siberian High strengthening by 22nd and creating large amount of HPA around West Pacific, this is pushing moisture towards Bay. Till 22nd Eastern part of Bay has Northerly to NW wind at lower levels, from 23rd it is changing to Easterly, by 24th it changes in entire south bay. This is the role of Siberian High. From 24th HPA completely occupies West Pacific. There is another reason for WP to be occupied by HPA, MJO likely to strengthen in Phase 2, this will make Phase 4, 5 and 6 to become dry.

    Hence we can be assured that NEM onset likely between 23-25 October, from then we will have good rainfall. Dont forget about month end system in bay.

    https://www.windyty.com/10.833/81.211?clouds,2015-10-22-15,14.775,91.934,3

  9. Happy Birthday Biju Boy.

    Kea..A suggestion..
    Kea Weather is aware of our blogger friend Kiran Kumar Reddy ‘s passion n his uninhibited style of presenting n sharing data related to AP/Telengana over the past few years. In my opinion his blog postings adds lot of value n I sincerely feel, you need to create a exclusive “Kiran”s AP Weather data n Tit bits. He can simultaneously update interesting updates from his region…You can check with Pradeep on how to manage his existing data n how to present Kiran s.

    • It would mess up i believe, we have bangalore page, there are lots of general comments pouring in, but Kiran’s comments are valuable, it has to be posted here, people are not visiting other pages regularly, hence it would be missed by many.

    • To be frank it was honest self-assessment but one thing i felt that they went chest thumping with their forecast.

      • i agree to that, i’m always a supporter of private agencies, remember we are also a private entity, people remained silent when govt agency failed, but when one prediction went wrong, every one raised hue and cry, always a competition will give a better result , and in the end we ordinary people are going to get good forecasts,

      • I do agree but we tend to degrade IMD one point of other, because it turns to be government orgainstation, they have improved a lot with help of PSLV. Now they are able to track cyclone with almost pin point accuracy. Atleast we have to respect IMD for their experience.

      • of course, IMD in recent times gave better prediction, lot of funds infused from govt, new software developed by IIM Pune, with the help of U.S, super computers used, we are going towards, a better forecasting era, in U.S private forecasters, and govt agency go hand in hand in prediction, and in fact the official agency website maintains list of private agencies, and welcomes their presence,
        whether people like or not private weather forecasting in India already have a big presence, and in future it will go leaps and bounds that is sure.

  10. Omg.. 90% places of ap and telangana records temperature above 37-38 c..some places records 40 c too…
    But how pity is this
    Nellore – 37.1
    Chennai – 33. 1
    4 degrees difference in 100 km

  11. Tamilnadu October rainfall..
    Upto 8.30 am of 14-10-15—- 89 mm
    Just 91 mm to reach normal…..
    Normal October highly possible

  12. rajesh sir has said in his blog the following

    Chennai: Though winds become Easterly, we do not see a systematic easterly trough developing till Sunday to herald the NEM. Chennai will not be getting any meaningful rains this week. ( Vagaries will put up the introductory article on NEM on Wednesday 14th October.)
    As of now, according to Long Term Forecast of Vagaries, NEM seems to enter TN earliest not before 24th October.

    courtesy: vagaries

  13. As usual NEM is testing our patience. Either with instant n immediate start coupled with long breaks or late onset..That has been the trend over the years.
    No other go, we got to be patient enough to withstand the waiting period. Already, we have seen an element of despondency creep in amongst our bloggers.
    I’m sure, knowing Kea, he would like to see NEM kick start at the earliest n bloggers have fun.. He would be itching for some real action as he is a real lover of rains at heart. He is more eager than our birthday boy Biju to see rains over our region.

  14. radar picks up showers over bay of bengal close to chennai coast – about 100 KMS north east and heavy spells over machili coast. it means moisture laden winds from north east strengthening over central bay of bengal. things would brighten within few hours for coastal tamil nadu.

    ss

  15. @maisuh,

    Those machili rainfall i expected it today. I saw the satellite pic an hour back it was showing thick cloud near the North AP coast, it was due to mid level disturbances.

    500 HPA shows the vorticity over North Coastal AP.

  16. machli radar indicates winds from east and north east close to machlipatnam. right from machili-karaikal looks like easterly winds prevailing as of now, though on weak intensity. keep track and may be in a day or two, there will be a total shift. today it is going to be a dry, hot day. probably tomorrow afternoon, it might undergo some change.

    ss

      • quite right. normally thunderstorm close to coast during this time that too in machli latitude is quite uncommon. the collision of these two wind pattern might trigger that. but this could be very short lived. already most of the places in andhra the maximum temperature crossed 100 f for the past 2 days, also added contributor for good convection.s

        ss

  17. October records shattered..

    Coastal AP hosts highest temperature of 44.8 degrees yesterday.
    More than 120 stations recorded above 40 degrees
    Nekarekal Guntur – 44.8 degrees yesterday

  18. Sel the CFS link u have put is 3 days old.

    This is 17th November to 21st November. BoB is hyper active.

    • no pj..above image is from models’ tuesday 12z run ,what i hav posted is tuesday 18z. so it is an updated one.. the difference is anomaly chart.so obviously it must differ

      • i can see int date 11th October in ur link. This is the latest.

        What ur saying 18z run for CFS. CFS runs only two times 00z and 12z

      • tidbits link that i posted was the ensemble of 16 members (updated ensmeble run of last 4 days run).. but ur’s was the update of a single run

  19. While Andhra under heat wave.Telangana enjoying mild winter during nights.
    Most places recording 16 to 20 degree minimum temperatures

  20. Bad news folks, gfs extended run shows a cyclone forming over SE BOB and moving to Bangladesh…😦 but still lot of time left for this to happen, it may change in the next run.

  21. Most of us are forgetting that today is a relatively lovely day with warm sunshone and cool breeze and less humidity…i am enjoying at home…

  22. Weather Warning during next 5 days *
    —————————————————
    14 October (Day 1):♦ No weather warning.
    15 October (Day 2):♦ No weather warning.
    16 October (Day 3):♦ No weather warning.
    17 October (Day 4): No weather warning.
    18 October (Day 5):♦ No weather warning.

    CHARAN SINGH
    SCIENTIST ‘E’ (NWFC)

  23. Warm North India

    Idar gujarath – 39.7 degrees
    Deesa gujarath – 39.0 degrees
    churu Rajasthan – 38.8 degrees
    khajuraho MP – 38.6 degrees
    Baroda gujarath – 38.6 degrees
    Bhuj gujarath – 38.6 degrees
    Bikaner Rajasthan – 38.5 degrees
    Akola MH – 38 degrees

      • Idar – 24.2 degrees
        Deesa – 23.6 degrees
        Churu – 19.0 degrees
        khajuraho – 22.0 degrees
        Baroda- 22.4 degrees
        Bhuj – 25.8 degrees
        Bikaner – 23.4 degrees
        Akola – 20.1 degrees

        Only Rajasthan Telangana southern parts of MP MH and entire Telangana karmataka and ghat areas of AP Bihar Jharkand having cool nights

  24. Unexpected Flash News – Real time Negative OLR shows that by 20th there is a rainfall over TN. It is like a trough moving in from East of Lanka to GOM.

    What kind of a situation this would be?

    • This is the reason I believe WP typhoon impact will not be that much..we have seen in the past..but above scenario might change and it might not rain..
      But I have seen lot of typhoon in WP back to back during October and NEM onset happened within normal period..but this is elnino year..Overall NEM is unpredictable

  25. POST MONSOON SEASON:
    —————————————
    The Indian northeast monsoon also known as the retreating southwest monsoon, is a small scale feature confined to
    parts of southern Indian peninsula with duration October to December. It is associated with the seasonal reversal of
    surface and lower tropospheric winds from southwesterlies (during the southwest monsoon season of June to
    September) to northeasterlies which set in over the Indian region in October. This season also constitutes the
    principal cyclone season for India.

    SEMI-PERMANENT FEATURES:
    ——————————————
    The southwest monsoon season has now practically come to an end. This period is a transition period between the
    southwest monsoon season and post-monsoon season. The semi-permanent features are gradually becoming unimportant
    from the weather map. Heat Low, Tropical easterly Jet and Low Level Jet have become less marked.
    Tibetan Anticyclone (TA) has shifted south/southeastwards. Now, shifting of Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ)
    to the south and presence of STWJ over the north India are the two important features of the season

    Week ending 7th Oct, ITCZ was seen located between 10 and 20 N

  26. Thambi sel no point in debating further. u stick to yours. i will stick to mine. The model run is 18z but what is the initial condition ?

    ur initial period id 11th october and run is 18z. What ur showing is CFS 2 it always uses initiation period of lag of 2 days.

    The precip accumulation model i have been putting is CFS. But CFS 2 anamoly
    will change in a day or two based on this. Because ur intilization period is 2 days
    old for CFS 2 and for CFS it is just 1 days old.

    u cann see the link below -“initialisation the data is one day old”

    http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&CONT=swas&MODELL=cfs&MODELLTYP=1&VAR=prec&INFO=1&

    Thambi GTS summa sel postku like kudukatha pa. ithuku like kudunga please.

      • Sel understood. Ur not understanding what i am saying

        CFS 2 understood 18Z run but what is initial conditon 11th october. Ur model run is latest but lag period of 2 days is there for input.

        CFS my link is 12Z but initial contion is 12th october. My model run is 6 hours older than urs but lag period is latest 1 days is there.

        So u decode which is latest run. Never use CFS 2 weekly for decoding mid-range.

      • ok.ok what i prefer is this ensemble .instead of polambifying with the variation in daily cfs runs, we can get the better picture with this ensemble as it is the averageof last 3 days run..so only

      • appada. see after 2 days. because CFS last 2 days runs are good. Natuarlly the anamoly is going to change to positive side in BoB.

  27. In the 11th dated T.O.I of this month, Mr.Thambi Dy.Director of Imd chennai, hinted that rains from n.e winds will commence around 20th of this month

  28. The current upper level WVW motion vectors are suggesting of only one defined upper level anticyclone aloft east central Arabian Sea between 10 N and 20 N and the ridge line running close to 15 N. And a kink in the upper level westerlies aloft n.bay extending down the latitude up to 16 N

  29. Meenambakkam again 24 c….vara vara min temperature paatha Bayama iruku…. No need 23-24 c till dec 15 Atleast….
    But last November nunga records 22 c… Omg I don’t want to see that again this November

  30. more than 1500 to 2000 KMS distance between bay of bengal and west pacific. It is surprise many of the reports say West pacific system would hinder the easterly winds over bay. That too that system after some point of time taking totally north east direction and well over 20 North latitude. it is difficult to convince that system would delay the monsoon winds over bay. Moreover parts of china, thailand and vietnam have substantial land portion. if so, how a west pacific system about 2000 KMS away from bay can delay the winds. Any one who have more knowledge on this can share their views on this. I think IMD always picks up negatives and considerably delays any announcements.

    ss

    • There are many significant dynamics that can happen aloft at the upper Troposphere , that is more important and in fact the response of it is seen down on the surface at many times.

      • ok..but there r high chances some weak system or circulation forming near the coast or GOM if not from central bay or east bay

    • The origin of NEM winds are from South China Sea, infact from Siberia. The flow comes from there and reaches bay. The source of that wind should be stronger and the flow should not get deviated mainly in South China Sea. The Koppu typhoon changing the wind pattern over SE Bay and South China Sea to Westerly from tomorrow. Even though we have NE wind over West and Central Bay, this will not have moisture in it. The dry wind of ACC over Central India at 850 HPA will be extending to NTN.

      Due to the Typhoon in WP the Siberian High over NW Pacific and SCS not developing, once it moves to NW Pacific in NE direction and weaken, that time the HPA of Siberia is allowed to get developed and flow towards SCS and to Bay. Hence SWM winds are localised to IO, but NEM winds are from other basins, this is why it is having more failures than SWM.

  31. experts one question here…cyclones like Nisha and Phyan guesss formed near GOM or srilanka..does that requried an easterly wave …

  32. Thailand weather department confirmed north easterly winds prevail over central and south thailand. in fact showers forecast from tomorrow. How the west pacific system allow this, as thailand coast is more nearer to phillipines coast. hardly 1000 + KMS. If that is not affecting even thailand, how this can affect bay of bengal. IMD report is not all that right, i feel. Thailand also confirmed, the pacific system moves towards thaiwan around 18th of october.

    ss

    • saying this on a lighter note ,i feel you r not looking on a broader perspective.. system in w.pacific is not that strong now and it is well far away from here to influence either bay or thailand waters.. i agree. but if we move along with the forecast till 19th,we could see the sytem moving in a westerly direction along with steady intensification.. bcos of this , there will b a huge pressure drop along phillipinnes sea adj s.china sea which would alter the isobar lines.. we know winds follow a certain pattern moves from high pressure to low pressure area..now indian basin(particularly bay) which is already a victim of elnino suppression staying in a high pressure zone..now that system causes a sinking motion at upper level which creates more divergence at lower level so pressure increases at the surface all along the area that would be unfav for convection development.winds move into low preesure area from high pressure area so easterly wind reversal happens here in bay which will hinder moisture push into tamilnadu

      https://www.windyty.com/?900h,2015-10-18-21,11.824,86.836,4

  33. The Negative OLR confusion on 20th, i have posted the image for 20th and 21st was due to E-W shear zone forming near GOM, wind in that place changing to Westerly from Easterly due to WP Typhoon. No more confusion on NEM onset, it will happen by 23-25 dates.

    The IMD GFS screen shot enclosed.

  34. distance from chennai-manila 4390 KMS. Bangkok – phillipines 2300 KMS. Such huge distance, the west pacific system can cause delay in our seasonal rains, which is slightly not a convincing point. There are instances with in bay of bengal, we had twin cyclones within 1000 KMS. any way let us wait and see what finally happens.

    SS

    • If u could get the point that wind is just moving air and its a response of local and temporal pressure gradients , u may get to visualize. Physical surface distance is not the way to look for

    • well that is not the case here now.. we have seen cyclones simultaneously .not disagreeing with that… if we hav any eq .wave activity in bay of bengal ,that would hav reduced the mean pressure and caused some activity or if we r in lanina regime,pressure will b low even along w.pacific,indonesia and bay waters..so it wont have harmed it like this..
      now we re seeing neither of that..so how can we compare this with that scenario?..

    • System forming in SCS will not hider the flow of winds, since the wind direction will remain same over there, but systems forming in WP will change the wind pattern in SCS and it impacts the flow of wind.

      Even i have the examples that when system in North Bay, we had low in GOM and rainfall happened in TN.
      Fine example would be that during 2005 October 27th or 28th that DD crossed coast near Nellore, it was a LOW still in AP on 29th, but we had another LOW formed in SW bay and rain continued.

      • Thailand reports contradicts the fact. They are very close to south china sea but they indicated showers over south thailand due to NE monsoon. if you say south china sea has real impact it should as well applicable to Thailand also, whereas reality is slightly different. From your statement it is very clear more than bay of bengal south china sea has major role in NE monsoon. that is quite strange. any way let us see.

        ss

  35. “Although the El Nino-monsoon correlation has been known since 1980, it was never a driver of the IMD’s forecasts. As recently as March 24, 2014, a senior IMD official referred to El Nino as a Western conspiracy. El Nino fears help American and Australian interests to “drive down commodities and stocks in India”, this official had said. The IMD’s forecast this year was a success because it seems to have finally taken into consideration the strong El Nino correlation. –

    http://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/columns/why-skymet-went-wrong/

  36. If Positive IOD does not weaken, then i think the month end system might move North.
    I think that models would have had this in mind and giving this forecast, let me see the value of IOD this Sunday and next Sundar, then we can surely five the forecast track by ourselves. By that time i will give you the direction of this system.

    If IOD weakens, i am sure this system might become DD and move towards TN.

  37. right now if we see models prediction even 1mm is difficult to get for next 15days. I Know it will change but for now forecast is bad

  38. Onset of Northeast monsoons – Past Record

    ——————

    The monsoon is important for Tamil Nadu: 48 per cent of the State’s annual rainfall of 945 mm is received during this season. As for the delayed onset, the official noted that since 1979 the onset has occurred in the second half of October (16-31) on 16 occasions and in November four times (1984, 1988, 1992 and 2000). In the remaining 10 years it happened in the first half of October.

    Dr. Raj said categorically that there was no correlation between delayed arrival and failure of the monsoon. In 1998, the onset happened on October 28. Yet, the State registered an excess of around 20 per cent.
    http://www.thehindu.com/todays-paper/northeast-monsoon-rain-is-set-to-arrive/article170020.ece

  39. Last week the sea water level height was above 2 metres in EIO and less than 1.5 metres in WIO.
    Today in EIO it is around 1.8 metres and WIO too has 1.8 M.

    This means the upwelling over EIO is decreased and increasing slowly in WIO, hence Positive IOD might start to weaken.

    Month end system has more chance to move Westwards towards TN coast and charts will change after 20th.

    http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/ocean/primary/waves/overlay=significant_wave_height/orthographic

  40. Pre NEM System on oct 30th? Lol
    Already models first pre NEM System predicted by models on oct 1st week doesn’t materialized

  41. Latest ecmwf..

    Except for a weak circulation around 20th close to SL latitude, which might merely benefit SL and extreme S.TN with some possible showers, nothing expected on the onset conditions up to 24th OCT ’15…We may have keep our eyes wide open to catch up the onset …
    “Let us watch the play !!! ”

      • It won’t be a signature LOW and may not catch up with the FWS rains criteria , according to which at least 50-75 % stations should get their RG’s filled in ..

    • I have a question – forget NEM for a moment – is there past record of no rains – very little rains during first two weeks of October and are we experiencing something new

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