Heavy rains likely over S. TN and Kerala

An Upper Air Cyclonic Circulation(UAC) over south TN region continues to persist and extends up to 1.5 km above mean sea level. Under its influence, rainfall likely to occur over parts of south TN along with some parts of interior districts as well. Kerala and adjoining south interior Karnataka will see some isolated heavy spells as well. Other parts of south India will experience almost dry weather. The disturbance over Arabian Sea continues to weaken gradually and alongside moving further westwards away from Indian coast, and thus its influence on Indian region will gradually lift off completely.
Chennai will have to see a partly cloudy day. Temp. will settle close to 34 – 35 C.

Trichy will see maximum temperature inching close to 33 C

Vellore will stay slight less warm at 32 C.

Madurai will have to see a warm day and max. temp. will stay around 34 C.

Coimbatore will stay much comfortable at 31 C.

1,125 thoughts on “Heavy rains likely over S. TN and Kerala

  1. NEM onset still 12-14 days away.

    It looks most likely that Monsoon will arrive only by 26th. October might end in a slight deficit for chennai. Hopefully November and December makes up with huge excess rainfall.

  2. Weather is expected to be Dry and Warm with some isolated small patches of Clouds in the sky and Not to expect Rains.
    South Interior and Southern Tip of South Tamilnadu and South Kerala will see Heavy Rains

  3. Good morning friends !!

    October likely to end in normal for Chennai and above normal for south Tamilnadu …
    Chennai going to see a some weak easterlies in this week but it will produce good rains in coming days .. And massive heavy to very heavy rain expected for coastal tamilnadu in next week . So keep the bucket ready 😁

    • Yeah
      Above normal for South Tamilnadu and normal for North Tamilnadu both matches same amount of rainfall because south tamilnadu average rainfall is less when comparing to north tamilnadu

  4. It is picture perfect day in nellore with crystal clear sky with nip in the year slight sea breeze looks like more off Jan than oct

  5. Pacific typhoon may delay North-East monsoon – Young bloggers -now you know who is a villain for NEM


    Reverse monsoon

    But it will take a while before the flows over adjoining Bay of Bengal switch direction in this manner in order to prepare the ground for the North-east monsoon.

    The reason is a building typhoon over West Pacific that is heading towards the Philippines initially and rebounding off the higher reaches of archipelago and speeding away north-northeast towards Japan.

    The typhoon will pull in flows from the Arabian Sea, the Bay of Bengal and the South China Sea right into May 20, up to which forecasts were available.

    This will not allow the easterly-to-north easterly flows to fall into place over the Bay of Bengal. The shift of winds is not expected to happen until the typhoon makes landfall over East Japan and weakens in the process.

    According to global forecasts, the landfall is expected to happen by October 20-21. So, the North-East monsoon is likely to be delayed until then.


      • As of now we are seeing Dry Eaterlies due to HPA this making temperature cooler and there is a Dew Drops seen today Morning in the grasses and Leaves. Perfect Pre NEM Monsoon Conditions

      • Yeah today also I could see same in nellore BTW Seems tyhoon in west Pacific is delayingl NEM for four to 5 days

  6. The most super cyclone made landfall south of Chennai and given a super rain and winds for Mahabalipuram to pondy stretch. That day I and my parents was standing in the mottamaddi and watched the cyclone movement . It was a great day and happiest day of my life.

  7. Heavy rains reported in madurai in the wee hours 4-430am
    courtesy: dinamalar
    our pradeep can confirm the rainfall figures.
    good start to day

  8. Stimulated IR imagery from GFS .. Actually early 2nd week system in west central pacific was expected to play spoilsport here in bay but it moved north-northeast without doing much damage.Now to takeover the job,another monster in making ..

  9. If we had system simultaneously in bay along with pacific typhoon,would hav been easy to counter the sinking caused by those typhoons, we might not see a big damage.. last two year combo was 2013 phailin-nari,2014 hudhud-vongfung.. this year bay got busted without a proper eq wave

  10. Even though Typhoon is affecting easterly it can’t stop it completely. Hope to get rain couple of days before NEM onset.

  11. Guys,

    NEM onset likely by end of 3rd week.

    Sorry to say that i was predicting NEM by 15th or before that, but that is unfortunate, lets all blame Positive IOD factor for the delay. There is a quote saying that the upwelling over EIO will reduce once the NEM sets in, the on shore winds near Indonesia during NEM will be from NW direction, this will reduce the upwelling factor and Positive IOD should start weakening. Another factor is that NEM winds should be from NE direction starting from South China to Tamil Nadu, there should not any change in direction in between, since the WP system forming, we could see Westerly winds from SE Bay towards SCS until 20th. SWM withdrawal too got delayed due to twin systems in Bay and Arabian Sea, since this two systems weakened, from 15th or 16th most of regions above 15N will become dry. SWM will withdraw from entire country by 20th. All the above factors are getting concluded only by 22nd. Hence between 23rd and 25th we can expect NEM onset. After 21st the Positive IOD might start weakening, the upwelling over EIO to get reduced.

    I am 100% sure that my LRF will turn positive. As i have predicted lower than normal rainfall in October and Excess in November and December, that is what happening now.

  12. The Easterly winds over SCS now is strong, if that system did not form in WP and move northerly, this wind will make the NEM onset in next 2 days, unfortunately that system will move northwards and hider the Easterly wind to change to Westerly in SCS and South East Bay from tomorrow.

  13. west pacific system is too far away and more over if it moves west, this can only help the easterly winds to set. but there are some discouraging reports about NEM. i feel things would dramatically change and we might get our seasonal rains from this friday.

    the latest radar picture indicates only at upper levels, north east wind is blowing and lower level winds are from south and south west, which is quite unusual during second week of october. the sunny day might cause some thundershowers by late evening.

    • first of all there is no warm air from west to trigger a TS, it is easterly now, also the dry air of ACC extending, hence except south tamil nadu no other areas has chance for TS, remember the wind pattern before forecasting, this is not typical SWM wind.

      that system will not move into bay until positive iod weakens, there is southerly wind pattern prevailing in south bay and surface level, due to strength of positive iod the NEM onset getting delayed, hence the weakening will happen once strong NEM winds start to flow from south china sea, that will happen once the system in WP moves away to NE direction, so dry weather likely to remain for NTN until NEM onset, also STN will get dry weather after 16th until NEM onset.

    • even thunderstorms may form south and moves towards city, as already an UAC prevails over the region. rains are possible from any direction if the conditions suit properly. let us see. already thai meterological department notified north east winds over south thailand from yesterday.


  14. Pacific and Indian oceans now reinforcing climate patterns

    While the 2015 El NiΓ±o is the strongest seen since 1997, its equivalent in the Indian Oceanβ€”the positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD)β€”is now at levels not seen since late 2006. The strong El NiΓ±o is expected to last until at least the end of the year before declining in the first quarter of 2016, however the positive Indian Ocean Dipole is expected to decay earlier, in November 2015.

    Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the central to eastern tropical Pacific continue to warm, further entrenching El NiΓ±o, while waters south of Indonesia have cooled, strengthening the positive IOD. Likewise, waters to the north of Australia have also cooled over the past three weeks, which may further contribute to drier conditions.

    Most international climate models surveyed by the Bureau of Meteorology indicate the anomalous warmth in the tropical Pacific Ocean is likely to peak around the end of 2015. Typically, El NiΓ±o peaks during the late austral spring or early summer, and weakens during late summer to autumn.

    Four out of five international climate models suggest the strong positive IOD event will persist into November, but decline rapidly as the monsoon trough shifts south over the IOD region, changing the wind patterns. This change means the IOD pattern is no longer able to form in the ocean.

    El NiΓ±o is usually associated with below-average spring rainfall over eastern Australia, and increased spring and summer daytime temperatures in Australia south of the tropics. A positive IOD typically reinforces the drying pattern, particularly in the southeast.

  15. Lowest temperature in Karnataka plains
    Halburga Bidar – 15.9 degrees
    Lowest in Telangana
    Nyakal Medak – 14.7 degrees
    Lowest temperature in AP
    Lammasingi visakha – 16 degrees

      • I hope swm withdrawn already….imd may announce soon..
        cold dry winds already dominating.
        even cold winds blowing in parts of kurnool Hyd streach too

  16. Negative OLR getting postponed after 20th.
    Kelvin going to strengthen in Phase 3 by 3rd week after long gap. Since Positive IOD emergence started in August, Kelvin did not became strong in Phase 3, but by third week of this month this Kelvin will strengthen in Phase 3 and this is the indication of Positive IOD weakening. This Kelvin will be followed by MJO.

    Big time MJO which i had mentioned in my previous comments, that MJO will trigger NEM onset between 23rd and 25th. This MJO is going to stay longer in IO phase 2 and 3, this will bring the IOD to neutral by November. This MJO will stronger than usual and this will bring excess rainfall starting from 24th October to 15th November. Couple of systems possible in between these days.

  17. Australian tropical cyclone outlook for 2015-16 released
    – Less than average number of tropical cyclones expected for the Australian region this season
    – There has never been an El NiΓ±o year without at least one tropical cyclone making landfall on the Australian coast

    Western Pacific region experiencing major impacts of El NiΓ±o
    – Reduced rainfall has severely affected crop production and drinking-water supplies over many parts of the region
    – Reduced rainfall and above-average temperatures are having a significant impact on crop production and wildfire activity over parts of eastern Australia

    Positive Indian Ocean Dipole reinforces El NiΓ±o climate pattern
    – The combination of El NiΓ±o and a positive IOD typically leads to drier-than-average conditions across much of northern Australia
    – Australian monsoon-onset date is also typically later than average

  18. Thai meteorological department notified north easterly winds set in over southern thailand in today’ s report. probably in another 48 hours it would spread to indian coast line. good message.


  19. A tropical storm likely by end of this month, this move towards TN and cross TN coast. The forecast i have been observing since the beginning of this month and it is consistent.

  20. Nov cfs forecast changed a bit in just 4 days run.. but still it is consistent with slight excess for north tn..
    difference in oct 8th and oct 12th model runs

  21. Selva, GTS and PJ,

    3 pillars of KEA.

    Just now saw that video, audio disabled in my office system, but you people were talking like professionals in weather, that is the requirement to give confidence to people who were worried about rain and water starving.

    Keep going, nothing to stop you all.

  22. on NEM people have to understand nature is not like train or Bus to be on exact clock time…they have their own calendar

  23. Cfs expects the rapid demise of current el nino.. Now the Prob of lanina emerging in 2016 summer looks high as NINO 3 &adj areas are expected to cool down in next few months.. .. lets wait for other agencies forecast




    Rajapalayam (Virudhunagar Dist), Sankarankoil (Tirunelveli Dist) 7 each

    Ayikudi (Tirunelveli Dist), Tondi (Ramanathapuram Dist) 5 each

    Kuzhithurai (Kanyakumari Dist), R.s.mangalam (Ramanathapuram Dist)

    4 each

    Kovilpatti (Toothukudi Dist), Watrap (Virudhunagar Dist), Thenkasi (Tirunelveli Dist), Shencottah (Tirunelveli Dist), Pechiparai (Kanyakumari Dist), Kamudhi arg (Ramanathapuram Dist)

    3 each

    Barur (Krishnagiri Dist), Ambasamudram (Tirunelveli Dist), Manimutharu (Tirunelveli Dist), Srivilliputhur (Virudhunagar Dist), Sivagiri (Tirunelveli Dist), Kalugumalai (Toothukudi Dist), Tiruvadanai (Ramanathapuram Dist), Kothagiri (Nilgiris Dist), Tirupuvanam (Sivaganga Dist)

    2 each

    G Bazar (Nilgiris Dist), Illayangudi (Sivaganga Dist), Ramanathapuram (Ramanathapuram Dist), Sattur (Virudhunagar Dist), Pochampalli (Krishnagiri Dist), Uthagamandalam AWS (Nilgiris Dist), Vilathikulam (Toothukudi Dist), Hogenekal (Dharmapuri Dist), Chinnakalar (Coimbatore Dist), Srivaikuntam (Toothukudi Dist), Lower kothaiyar arg (Kanyakumari Dist), Namakkal (Namakkal Dist), Peravurani (Thanjavur Dist)

    1 each

  25. Massive Rains hit Tamil Nadu, ending 8.30 am on 12.10.2015

    in mm (min 50 mm)

    Venbavur – 136
    Chatrapatti – 129
    Sholavandan – 127
    Veppanthattai – 129
    Thuraiyur – 119
    Mangalapuram – 110
    Yercaud – 100
    Viralimalai – 97
    Gobichettipalayam – 91
    Vazhapadi – 91
    Upper Anaicut – 91
    Tiruppur – 87
    Nambiyur – 87
    Anthiyur -85
    Manaparai – 82
    Kodiveri – 80
    Sendurai- 76
    Mazhaiyur – 75
    Thanjavur – 74
    Parapalr Dam – 74
    Hosur – 73
    Salem – 72
    Peraiyur – 71
    Palacode – 70
    Pulivalam – 70
    Papanasam – 69
    Tirukoilur -68
    Navalur Kuttapattu – 67
    Rasipuram – 65
    Hogenekal – 62
    Thogamalai – 61
    Nandhiyar Head – 61
    Ttichy town – 60
    Kamatchipuram – 59
    Mannargudi – 58
    Valparai taluk office – 56
    Pennagaram – 56
    Perundurai – 56
    Shoolagiri – 56
    Pongalur – 54
    Gunderipallam – 54
    Ponnamaravathy – 54
    Varatupallam – 53
    Parangipettai – 53
    Kavindapadi – 52
    Thuvakudi IMTI – 52
    Thiruthuraipoondi – 50
    Vadipatti – 50
    Tirumangalam – 50
    Ketti – 50
    Musiri – 50

  26. Latest ecmwf expects a cyclonic circulation moving across south bay and reaches S.TN, SL , GOM area by 19th Oct.
    Seems to have decent vorticity in it as well…But definitely not a signature LOW

  27. Crucial months ahead for Nellore ongole

    Nellore Normal stats

    October 266 mm ( till now only 31 mm)
    November 317 mm

  28. Northwest indian anticyclone extends wide and now covers entire india except south extreme regions of nellai-tuticorin-kanyakumari

  29. Once again it is proved that Positive IOD is not favorable for NEM rainfall. During NEM onset, IOD factor going to weaken, this is when NEM will strengthen. The Upwelling near Indonesian coast might start to weaken and convert into Downwelling phase due to change in on shore wind direction at lower level from SE to NW in that area.

    Hats off to Selva for pointing out this factor for several years and no one was accepting it. Also in 1997 the same way NEM onset happened after 20th and ended in excess, even though the values of IOD were in Positive mode, but when you see the upwelling trend started to weaken from month end of October, hence the rainfall was below normal in that month. Once the downwelling trend strengthened in the first week of November, the IOD value started to travel downwards, that is when NEM was peaking. In 1997 November ended in Excess, but value of IOD was still more than 2.

    The same way this time too NEM is going see deficit in October, due to upwelling strengthened and will start to weaken by last of week of this month and downwelling will strengthen by first week of November, this will bring excess rainfall and will see the down trend of IOD values.

    Hence going by values and forecasting will be highly risky, instead lets go by Atmospheric and Oceanic conditions at that time. This was the base for my NEM LRF 2015. It will never fail.

  30. That monster out in w.pacific seems will not cool down itself. Closer to Taiwan, 946 mb, and literally ruling the flow patterns around it. And here in the Indian subcontinent, as Selvan said earlier, combined subsidence effects of El nino Walker and this monster seems creating local High pressure cells as well near coastal AP. Bay is possibly cut off from tropical moisture regime from W .pacific . Not promising Oct at least until 25th..

  31. Yercaud would be the TN NEM topper for now i suppose
    If i am not wrong Yercaud has scored 420mm+ from just 3 rainy days this month – 121 (6Oct), 204 (12Oct), 100 (13Oct)

  32. Cyclone suthi suthi adikkum ne paatha.. Inga verum High pressure ah dhaan suthi adikidhu ….
    We ll enjoy outflows of High Pressures..

  33. Super Typhoon Tip back in October of 1979 was the largest and most powerful tropical cyclone ever recorded. This western Pacific storm directly impacted Japan. A total of 86 people were killed due to the cyclone.

  34. I still remember the match between IND and AUS where a test match took place in Chennai around oct 2nd week in 2004..India needed 229 runs to win with only 1 day remaining.
    India had bright chances of winning but unfortunately rain played spoilsport and day 5 was abandoned.
    It was raining the whole day!!! Guess it was the onset of NEM 2004.

  35. Why so much polambals..more we look into charts the more the polambals..
    What is the NEM onset date in 2013? i can see so many typhoons in Oct 2013 and many years before..All these years have they pushed onset to nov or last week of oct..

    • Even if late monsoon brings excess rainfall but definitely TN govt will be in jitters due to late onset by oct last week or nov ist week

      • Even Oct 25 is normal onset date..just 3 spells of 20 CM each/2 days is enough for normal or above normal..Lot of times we have seen that in the past

      • Dont go by that charts, i am not with November onset, the fast progressing of SWM withdrawal, it will withdraw from entire country by 19th or 20th, NEM onset will happen between 23 and 25 October.

      • Partha sir, i can see a monster cyclone in WP pulling our NEasterly flow of winds from SCS . Then how onset can occur by oct 23-25?????. That guy pulling all moisture and winds. 😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭

      • I can see many WP cyclones in past during oct but onset happened many times with normal date Oct 20 +/-5 days

      • Once SWM withdrawl happens all these high pressures will vanish becoz of slow increase in easterlies..namma models pathi theriyaatha

  36. Is 2015 a drought year? The answer is both yes and no. Yes, because it qualifies to be a meteorological drought with an overall rainfall deficiency of 14 per cent. It is also a hydrological drought as the total water stock in the country’s 91 major reservoirs is nearly 23 per cent below normal. The groundwater, too, hasn’t been recharged adequately in most parts of the country.


  37. “His phone keeps ringing. Offers now from Tv Serials are pouring” – Novak after GTS interview

    Oru velai “Romaapuri Paandiyan’ serialku irukumo? πŸ˜€

  38. Summer monsoon rain belt in East Asia to shift northward as planet warms up: study

    The East Asian summer monsoon rain belt has been migrating southward since the 1970s, with more droughts in northern China countered by more floods in southern China.

    The researchers measured carbon isotope ratios for bulk organic matter dating back to the peak of the last Ice Age about 20,000 years ago, which is referred to as the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), as isotope ratios provided measures of biomass of plants that used the so-called C4 photosynthetic pathway.

    They found the spatial distribution of C4 plant biomass is “a robust analog” for the monsoon rain belt, which migrated at least 300 kilometers to the northwest from the cold Last Glacial Maximum to the warm Holocene 4,000 years ago.

    The results strongly support the idea that a warming climate shifts the monsoon rain belt northward, they said.


  39. Surface Pressure values are higher than climatological mean across Bay, especially in sw bay and wc bay until 23rd Oct ..
    less conducive for cloud zone bands in the region …

      • 7 – 8 days is surely much more reliable. But still all runs are quite confident and consistent. should be equally accurate

      • MJO forecast to be in Phase 2 in next 10 days, this forecast is too much consistent for the past 13 days, hence i would say that after 23rd and before 26th we should have our NEM onset.

    • Nope I disagree πŸ‘Ž with that GTS, El Nino conditions along with hpa might be a reason for higher pressure. Once NEM enters bob from scs, these things would not affect us much.

      • elnino is one reason but if we go by climatology we shld hav active monsoon itcz area in between 10-15N right??..now where is the low pressure associated itcz here ??? why it shld go against the climatology? bcos there is not going to b any action with pressure increasing all over bay.so elnino modified walker sinking limb along with typhoon sinking is causing all this action.

      • Yes Jupi , agree
        Normally with el nino around , slightly higher pressure values are to be here with deviations from climatology.
        I was a bit more concerned of the continuous High Pressure areas generating in quick successions , that seems to be some global response and as well as neighbor basin’s impact.

  40. Partha sir, u can see. Those two guys (typhoons) pulling all N Easterly flow. And ACC extending upto STN on 21. ACC, will vanish on 24/25

  41. Re posting ….

    Criteria for determination of dates of NEM Onset :
    The following five rules (R1 to R5) formulated by Raj(1992) were used:

    R1: Southwest monsoon should have withdrawn up to coastal Andhra Pradesh
    R2: Deep easterlies should have set in over Tamil Nadu or seasonal low should have
    established in south BOB adjacent to Tamil Nadu coast.
    R3: After R1 and R2 are satisfied, the first day of Fairly widespread (FW) rainfall or a
    higher category over CTN would be the day of northeast monsoon onset.
    R4: If the date arrived at by R3 happens to be earlier than 10 October, the winds /
    surface charts are to be scrutinised to decide as to whether the onset of easterlies
    are temporary or permanent. If it is permanent, then the date of R3 should be taken
    as the onset date. If the easterly onset is temporary and if westerlies appear again in
    the lower troposphere over CTN, the date of permanent onset of easterlies is to be
    determined and R3 to be applied again.
    R5: In case, the date fixed is completely unsatisfactory, a review is to be made and
    the next date of FW rainfall is to be considered as onset date.

  42. Despite strong elnino, weak mjo, kelvin in wp much warmer sea temps n 200mb chi anomalies r favourable in elnino yrs, resulting in stronger systems a report

  43. NEM very poor start in my place , chidambaram getting some rain but my place very near chidambaram jjust 5 km without any single drops

  44. Last late onset happened is on 2009 -oct29th ( as per elnino year). Oct got 71mm. But in Nov we got 56cm & in that 48 cm poured from 3rd to 10th..due to lpa near SL, which then turned to cyclone phyan & crossed near mumbai

  45. lets wait till Oct 20 the official date …after that we will comment about NEM…20 -+ 5 days…lets not shoot up the BP…

  46. During May 2002, equatorial waves played a prominent role and kept both north and south Indian ocean really busy in the first half. Initially there was an MRG wave near western eq. Indian ocean , which slowly transformed to an n=1 ER wave . This structure straddled close to equator for a while and gave birth to 2 cyclones , 1 in AS and and another one in south Indian ocean which moved towards Madagascar later. The AS system made LF in Oman. During the same time span , the eastern eq. Indian ocean generated another ER wave pair, which again gave way for twin cyclones , one towards Australian region and the other tracked towards Myanmar …

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