Wind changes to Easterlies over Tamil Nadu

keaweather 2015, KEA Blog, NEM-2015

The much awaited wind change from westerlies to easterlies happened today along the Tamil Nadu coast with this we can bid adieu to the hot winds blowing from land and look forward towards the sea. But this doesn’t mean Northeast monsoon will set in immediately, we have to wait till a proper easterly wave comes in.

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Coming to the Deep Depression, it has weakened to Depression and will fizzle out in open waters of Arabian Sea. Karnataka may get some rains from the outer bands of the dying system. In Southern Peninsula, the wind change will result in massive wind discontinuity and thereby bringing bring good rains to west, interior and south Tamil Nadu, Karnataka and Kerala.

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Chennai – Day Temperature will be pleasant around 32-34 C. Night will be humid with less chance of rains.

Coimbatore – With max temp around 31-33 C, rains are expected to hit the city in evening/night.

Madurai – Thunderstorms are expected to hit the city at evening / night. Maximum will be close to 33-35 C.

Trichy – Rainy days to continue in the city and mercury will settle near 34 -35 C.

Vellore – Temperature will revolve at 32-33 C with a light chance of rains.

1,159 thoughts on “Wind changes to Easterlies over Tamil Nadu”

  1. Looks like Pondy is getting its First rain from easterlies 2015
    Radar looks good for them
    Dinagar might be enjoying

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  7. October 12, We turn back the clock of last two years.. Same day philin n Hudhud created havoc.

    Would like to re post the mail sent to me for Kea Weather blog from Mr.Ramachandra Rao, Dir, Cyclone warning centre, Visakhapatnam.

    Here it goes..
    FIRST ANNIVERSARY OF ‘HUDHUD’ CYCLONE
    The October 12 is approaching and with the memories of VSCS HUDHUD which made its landfall over Visakhapatnam on 12th around 1230 hours.
    In 2013 in the month of October a cyclonic storm PHAILIN crossed the east coast at Gopalpur of Odissa state on 12th. There was no thought that exactly in one year another cyclone will hit the east coast at Visakhapatnam on the same day in 2014.
    The preparations started as usual in September (this exercise will be done regularly twice in a year in the months of March and September) like arranging the lectures on various topics refreshing the procedures to be followed in tracking and forecasting the cyclonic storms originating in bay of Bengal, issuing letters to government organizations like CPWD, AIR, BSNL, APSEB etc. for their cooperation during cyclone, updating the telephone, FAX numbers f chief secretory, commissioner, disaster management, collectors of all coastal districts of Andhra Pradesh.
    Generally no holidays are granted to the staff during the cyclone period and I rarely took the leave in Oct-Nov. But due to some personal problems I was on leave and out of station during first week of October assuring the DDGM, RMC, Chennai I will join the duty in case of any indications of disturbance. I checked the likely cyclo genesis before leaving the station with the knowledge that no activity is likely till I return. I was in touch with the office and checking the web site for the updates. There was a possibility of forming a low pressure area by 6/7th. I returned to the station on 6th morning and a low formed in BOB. The phone calls started coming immediately after declaring the low from the general public print and electronic media and also from collectors. By 7th it became depression and it is heading toward north Andhra coast. The issue of messages commenced. The initial land fall estimated to be between Visakhapatnam and Paradeep. However by 8th it became clear that it will make land fall near Visakhapatnam.
    The DWR gave problem during the end of September. One power supply unit was defective. The spare unit is to be obtained from other radar unit from Machilipatnam. HQ was requested to send the unit early in view of the cyclone forming over BOB. The unit came and DWR made operational by seventh which was big relief to me as it will be very important for tracking the cyclone. The inputs from DWR, Visakhapatnam gave very valuable information of the cyclone like position, direction of movement, wind speeds etc.
    The warning messages disseminated through print, electronic media as well as through AIR, in addition to the concerned state government officials. The honorable chief minister of Andhra Pradesh personally called several times during the cyclone for regular updates. I attended video conference twice at Visakhapatnam collector’s office to brief the dangers associated with cyclone HUDHUD.
    The warning messages contained the information about strong gale force winds, heavy rain fall, damages to electric and communication poles/towers etc. It was mentioned that winds would start from 11th A/N night and rain fall from night. Many took it lightly. Even my brothers commented that ‘they will tell like that only. We went for walk without umbrella’. The newspapers published the statements from retired staff and others that no cyclone will come to Visakhapatnam, it would go either to odissa or to east Godavari. And also that Eastern Ghats will protect from winds. A TV reporter questioned me the same that there is no record of cyclone hitting Visakhapatnam while taking byte on cyclone. I got irritated as I faced the same question from many reporters and answered saying that don’t go by history and be prepared to face the cyclone coming towards Visakhapatnam.
    The winds started picking up from A/N of 11th and by evening it became difficult to move around. A lady employee had to come by auto as it was not possible to drive two wheeler. I scolded her for taking the risk of moving around in such a strong winds but I felt very happy that she came for duty leaving a kid back home. All the staff that came for duty were asked to continue as there would be lot of work to be done during next 24/36 hours.
    As the day progressed the wind speed increased and rain started. Most of the communication lines were down by night. There was no possibility to communicate with my wife as telephone line at house was down and also no electricity. No proper food for the staff in the office that night and also next day and next day that is 13th. I could not do anything as there were no shops/hotels open.
    By 12th morning the situation became worse. There was no let up from winds and rain. All transportation stopped. No way to go out and get something to eat and drink. Black Tea could be had as generator back up was there for the office. The wind became so strong that going out has become hazardous. All electronic media reporters thronged to the office for getting latest updates. Few fell and injured themselves. Mobile telephone services were down by 1000 IST. Many windows and doors of office were blown away. The land lines of BSNL and broad band worked till night enabling us to render the services. Rain water was everywhere in the office. Communication room doors were kept in place by holing them close by two persons. There were two staff members at dolphin’s nose. The last communication from them was on the night of 11th that the situation is very bad that there were no lights, many trees fallen, I was very much worried about their safety.
    By 12th morning my mind has gone blank. I was doing the work automatically but I was in no proper frame of mind as I was worrying about my wife and unable to do anything to console the staff crying about their families at home. By 1100 IST the DWR has to be shut down as all windows blown off and water entered the radar control room.
    There was a brief relief from 1230/1245 to 1330/1345 from rain and wind. Many trees in the office had fallen. Water seen everywhere. Little effort were made to clean office. It is known that severe weather will start after lull and it started around 1400 IST. The staff who went to the quarters did not report back. The worry increased about safety of them and their family. The wind and rain continued till night. The BSNL kept their services till night so that we can disseminate the warning messages. By 2130hrs IST BSNL lines too gave away.
    We could move around little bit on 13th morning. The situation gave a lot of pain. There was no upright tree that could be seen. Whatever can be seen upright are without leaves. The roads have become mess with fallen trees, electric poles, cables etc. I still remember the devastation left by HUDHUD around Visakhapatnam and wish and pray that it will not repeat in my life time.
    The only satisfaction is that loss of human life iwas minimum.

    Reply

  8. Omg…what’s going on..is winter started?
    Misty and foggy conditions Ponthamallee – Sriperumbudur..
    Some bad visibility

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  9. Absolute battered interiors…

    Veppanthatai – 128mm Perambalur dist
    Manaparai 82
    Valapadi 79
    Sendurai 76
    Tirukoilur 64
    Rasipuram 63
    Palacode 59
    Perundurai 51
    Grand anaicut 49

    Coimbatore 44
    Thuvakudi 40
    Trichy 20

    Yelagiri reported 192 may be over reporting

    Expect double fig, in reports 🙂

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  14. Preferences: Easterlies without any major system for a week giving about 250 mm total, and then a low in Gulf of Mannar that makes its way up the coast giving another 250 mm. These two give guaranteed rains. A depression that takes a week to build up in the oceans is a hit or a miss – we probably need 4 such systems one going to AP, second around Mahabs (300 mm), third around Pondy (200mm), then south of Nagai (50 mm). The easterlies will give 500 mm of rain in Nilgiris, the GOM will take care of the Delta, the depression drams if proper;y distributed will take care of the entire peninsula.
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  21. Budalur tj dist may be in top 5 too som hvy nos

    Perambalur, karur, cbe, ed, tpj.. Everywer rained one gr8 day..

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  23. Good morning!
    First easterlies hitting pondy an cuddalore!
    Cuddalore to pondy getting good rains and intense pop up/ts forming east of the band too!

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  33. if it rains in pondy from east, it will rain till you get bored. such a place it is . i suffered whole day in pondy during one NEM.

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  36. pondy is the reason why our rao is almost like TN person. very difficult to get a person like him. he is a true friend of TN.

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  37. Tomorrow nagai will get rain and rains moves south and pondy rains also stops tops today . No chance for rain in chennai

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  38. Actually easterly wave trying to enter from south china sea to bay from tomorrow but a system formed over there is strengthening. Hence the flow getting distracted and changing to westerly again from 14th. That system moving north and likely to cross coast by 19th. Then again the flow will start towards bay. End of the month a system is guaranteed in bay.

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  40. NE-turning west-Pacific strong typhoon will ignite a pulse in SE-BOB by 4th week of October, which will strengthen due to approaching MJO👍👌

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  41. North East monsoon, which contributes a major share of rainfall to city, sets in around October 20.

    This October has been favourable as Chennai received 7 cm of rainfall, which is excess by 1 cm for this month.

    Similarly, Meenambakkam has also recorded 6 cm of rainfall since October 1.

    We are expecting the monsoon to withdraw after October 15,” said an official.

    http://www.thehindu.com/todays-paper/tp-national/tp-tamilnadu/overnight-rain-improves-inflow-into-city-reservoirs/article7751573.ece

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  44. which is the most supporting factor of NEM. HPA in north india or siberian high. HPA without siberian high is not good for NEM?. siberian high has not formed or taking shape.?

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  45. Happy that Easterlies have finally touched our coast but no major rains expected for the next 1 week as per models.

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  49. Many centuries in TN today.. This includes Thanjavur, Dindigul, Salem districts, etc.. Salem city – 72.2 mm !!

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  51. Easterlies at 850hpa is in response to an anticylone at s.ap coast..looks like we need to wait for few more days to get under easterlies regime..Bay still seen dominated by w-sw winds

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  54. Veppanthattai in Perambalur district – 129 mm. There won’t be a wetter day for TN this year unless Nisha/Dec 2007 repeats

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  56. I remember one such day in 2012. October 13th or something. Interiors got battered, infact nothing was seen in Chennai PAC that day in 100 km radius. However Salem posted 143 mm and Nilakottai recorded 16 cm.

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  59. what pondi-cuddalore-delta got were from thunderstorms that formed over land/coast.. it was not from sea.. the interaction of anticyclone and sw’ly flow created ts

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  61. Adding on to what sel said, winds were north-easterlies. However the storms that formed off the coast were a result of the flanking of the interior storms, so it is not actually from the sea

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  63. tis is how it all started and ended..5th image shows pondi-cuddalore pop up and followed by rapid explosion images

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  66. Again tday most south,central interiors might score well.. Hot spot region to watchout would b the area encircling dharmapuri-krg-salem-tiruvannamalai.

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  67. how can we conclude winds turned easterlies. we could see clouds moving still from south west which is not an indicator of North east monsoon winds. It might take a day or two to properly set the pattern. this is certainly not the commencement of ne winds.

    ss

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  68. The interiors getting smashed with pelting rains was much expected earlier by IMD GFS initially. The earlier runs had expected an inland convergence zone around the same day, but later it was removed. However, the latest 12 utc analysis from IMD has confirmed on it. This is in sync with normal GFS analysis and CIMSS real time analysis as well. There was a developing inland convergence zone in the interiors . This could have developed because of possible flow constraints where , the mean westerlies flow had to counteract with the outflows from the anticyclone from centered in west/NW India. This combination along with some other thermodynamical conditions could have led to these monstrous rains. Analysis shows that , higher low to mid level RH values, higher values of vertical velocity at 700 hPa , higher boundary layer convergence, low level streamlines discontinuity all indicate the favorable conditions. This is no way related to nem rains.Attached are supportive analysis images.

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  71. To,
    KEA Weather Station

    Many More Happy Returns of the Day ! ! ! Happy Birthday ! ! !

    May your birthday and every day be filled with the cool and cool of rain showers, the happiness of smiles, the sounds of laughter, the feeling of love and the sharing of good cheer.

    Note: Special Thanks to Shiva, towards reminding this occasion

    Reply

  75. VSCS Phailin & Hudhud:
    Phailin: Landfall : Oct12th 2013, near Gopalpur in Odisha state at 9.15 pm
    Hudhud: Landfall : Oct12th 2014: close to Pudimadaka, around 50 km from vizag at 11.30 am.
    Highest winds ( IMD) : Phailin : 223.2 km/hr at Puri, odisha at 9 p.m.
    Hudhud : 205 km/hr at vizag on 12th..

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  88. Nunga or meena is no match to this interior districts this SWM.
    enna mazhai..perambalur trichy dindigul erode salem hosur now delta.

    ariyalur one day 297mm..thanjavur 14cm.
    Imagine how inch by inch we cross 100mm.

    Very happy to hear rains in those areas.

    it should pour like that here too.

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  89. Massive rains lashed Central TN interiors yesterday. Here is the list of stations(in cm)

    Just a previlege to post these numbers here!!
    —————————————————————————————————————————–

    Venbavur (Perambalur Dist), Thanjavur (Thanjavur Dist) – 14

    Chatrapatti (odanchatra (Dindigul Dist), Sholavandan (Madurai Dist) – 13

    Thuraiyur (Trichy Dist) – 12

    Mangalapuram (Namakkal Dist) – 11

    Yercaud (Salem Dist), Viralimalai (Pudukkottai Dist) – 10

    Gobichettipalayam (Erode Dist), Vazhapadi (Salem Dist), Upper anaicut (Trichy Dist), Tiruppur (Tiruppur Dist) – 9

    Sendurai (Ariyalur Dist) – 8

    Hosur (Krishnagiri Dist), Salem (Salem Dist), Peraiyur (Madurai Dist), Palacode (Dharmapuri Dist), Papanasam (Thanjavur Dist), Tirukoilur (Villupuram Dist), Thirukoilur arg (Villupuram Dist) – 7 each

    Rasipuram (Namakkal Dist), Hogenekal (Dharmapuri Dist), Thogamalai (Karur Dist), Trp town (Trichy Dist), Kamatchipuram (Dindigul Dist), Mannargudi (Tiruvarur Dist), Valparai taluk office (Coimbatore Dist), Pennagaram (Dharmapuri Dist), Perundurai (Erode Dist), Shoolagiri (Krishnagiri Dist) – 6 each

    Parangipettai (Cuddalore Dist), Thuvakudi IMTI (Trichy Dist), Thiruthuraipoondi (Tiruvarur Dist), Vadipatti (Madurai Dist), Tirumangalam (Madurai Dist), Ketti (Nilgiris Dist), Musiri (Trichy Dist), Karambakudi (Pudukkottai Dist), Sankarapuram (Villupuram Dist), Manapparai (Trichy Dist), Pudukottai (Pudukkottai Dist), Sankaridurg (Salem Dist), Grand anaicut (Thanjavur Dist), Ap peelamedu (Coimbatore Dist), Virudhunagar (Virudhunagar Dist) – 5 each

    Kovilankulam (Virudhunagar Dist), Sulur (Coimbatore Dist), Annur (Coimbatore Dist), K.paramathi (Karur Dist), Tiruchengode (Namakkal Dist), Samayapuram (Trichy Dist), Panchapatti (Karur Dist), Marungapuri (Trichy Dist), Perambalur (Perambalur Dist), Palani (Dindigul Dist), Thathiengrpet (Trichy Dist), Neyveli AWS (Cuddalore Dist), Karur (Karur Dist), Valparai pto (Coimbatore Dist), Alangudi (Pudukkottai Dist), Mayanur (Karur Dist), Namakkal nicra (Namakkal Dist), Kangeyam (Tiruppur Dist), Dharapuram (Tiruppur Dist) – 4 each

    Avinasi (Tiruppur Dist), Srivilliputhur (Virudhunagar Dist), Ariyalur (Ariyalur Dist), Uthangarai (Krishnagiri Dist), Coonoor (Nilgiris Dist), Adirampatnam (Thanjavur Dist), Thalavadi (Erode Dist), Nannilam (Tiruvarur Dist), Erode (Erode Dist), Naduvattam (Nilgiris Dist), Pattukottai (Thanjavur Dist), Mulanur (Tiruppur Dist), Omalur (Salem Dist), Mettur (Salem Dist), Pandavaiyar head (Tiruvarur Dist), Thali (Krishnagiri Dist), Illuppur (Pudukkottai Dist), Tirupathur pto (Vellore Dist), Vedasandur (Dindigul Dist), Thammampatty (Salem Dist), Kodaikanal (Dindigul Dist), Gandarvakottai (Pudukkottai Dist), Pullambadi (Trichy Dist), Tirukattupalli (Thanjavur Dist), Kodavasal (Tiruvarur Dist), Attur (Salem Dist), Coimbatore AWS (Coimbatore Dist), Sathyamangalam (Erode Dist), SenDamangalam (Namakkal Dist), Coimbatore south (Coimbatore Dist), Denkanikottai (Krishnagiri Dist) – 3 each

    Chinnakalar (Coimbatore Dist), Paramathivelur (Namakkal Dist), Aravakurichi (Karur Dist), Thirumanur (Ariyalur Dist), Barur (Krishnagiri Dist), Pochampalli (Krishnagiri Dist), Thiruchuzhi (Virudhunagar Dist), Coonoor pto (Nilgiris Dist), Tirupattur (Vellore Dist), Bhavani (Erode Dist), Mettupatti (Madurai Dist), Watrap (Virudhunagar Dist), Tiruchirappalli AP (Trichy Dist), Valangaiman (Tiruvarur Dist), Namakkal (Namakkal Dist), Perungalur (Pudukkottai Dist), Kalugumalai (Toothukudi Dist), Rayakottah (Krishnagiri Dist), Padalur (Perambalur Dist), Madurai south (Madurai Dist), Pappireddipatti (Dharmapuri Dist), Harur (Dharmapuri Dist), Kulithalai (Karur Dist), Chettikulam (Perambalur Dist), Kumarapalayam (Namakkal Dist), Usilampatti (Madurai Dist), Cuddalore (Cuddalore Dist), Bhavanisagar (Erode Dist), Kadavur (Karur Dist), Vilupuram (Villupuram Dist), Lalgudi (Trichy Dist), Keeranur (Pudukkottai Dist), Udumalpet (Tiruppur Dist) – 2 each

    Periyakulam (Theni Dist), Dindigul (Dindigul Dist), Penucondapuram (Krishnagiri Dist), Pondicherry (Puducherry Dist), Periyanaickenpalayam (Coimbatore Dist), Kodumudi (Erode Dist), Chengam (Tiruvannamalai Dist), Mettupalayam (Coimbatore Dist), G Bazar (Nilgiris Dist), Vallam (Thanjavur Dist), Rajapalayam (Virudhunagar Dist), Kothagiri (Nilgiris Dist), Tozhudur (Cuddalore Dist), Uthagamandalam (Nilgiris Dist), Periyakulam AWS (Theni Dist), Aruppukottai (Virudhunagar Dist), Andipatti (Theni Dist), NeeDamangalam (Tiruvarur Dist), Natham (Dindigul Dist), Airport Madurai (Madurai Dist), Tirumayam (Pudukkottai Dist), Aranmanaipudur (Theni Dist), Pollachi (Coimbatore Dist), Dharamapuri (Dharmapuri Dist), Sivaganga (Sivaganga Dist) – 1 each

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  90. City imd’s highest 24hr rainfall from 2010
    2010 – 107mm ( sep 24th)
    2011 – 104mm (Apr 23rd)
    2012 – 82mm (Nov 1st)
    2013 – 109mm (Nov 24th)
    2014 – 132mm ( Sep 26th)
    2015 – 66mm (May 17th)

    Courtesy – Bangalore Shankar

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  97. Massive rains yesterday for interiors..what a day..
    My parents native place padur which is near ulundurpet toll gate is bit rain shadow region..the lake is half full now because of recent rains..

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  98. Already in Tiruvallur district most of the areas having above 120mm for October. If the NEM rain starts in 20th october with big spell tiruvallur dist will end with above normal in October.

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