The depression over east central Arabian Sea moved west-northwestwards and intensified into deep depression over the same area roughly 500kms away from Indian west coast. High sea surface Temperature (SST), Low Vertical Wind Shear (VWS) are the crucial factors which feeds and maintains any tropical systems. In this case the SST is seen satisfying the conditions for the disturbance but VWS is just marginally favorable. So this disturbance may see slight intensification for next 18-24 hrs which could elevate this to TROPICAL STROM category. Thereafter the system would move into poor environment which is surrounded by dry air, leading to weakening of the system gradually as it moves northwestwards in next 2-3 days.
No significant rainfall warning for most parts of southern peninsular states. However Thunderstorms would occur over isolated parts of Northern parts of TN and Rayalaseema.
Chennai: Day might start with clear sky with few patches of cumulus clouds expected around noon. Max temp likely be around 34-35c with scattered thunderstorms activity by evening.
Vellore: Temp may settle around 32-33C with good chance of heavy showers by early evening.
Coimbatore: Another warm day expected with max temp around 32-33C
Madurai: Temp expected to be around 35-36C with moderate chance of thunderstorms in one or two places.
Trichy: Another rainy day expected for the areas in and around the city. Max temp may settle near 36c
Fantastic DC write up today. Clear cut explanation.
15mm here still raining
Raining or drizzling
Raining
Madampakam still raining
The night which I will never forget
The night which I didn’t slept for a second
The night that looked boring at the start ended with full excitement
The night that gave us the last ts of SWM 2015
Last night was awesome it started with four characters
First Arkrishna. Credit goes to him he was so confident that it will rain tonight whatever direction the ts moved he was so confident that it will hit chennai
Next is Naresh he first found out ts was moving towards us then got scared that it was moving more North then at the last moment he got the gift from nature
Third is Rame this guy was worried more about the unstable wind than the ts but got the rains which he needed
Fourth is the great Oregon uncle Rajesh he was enjoying rains in Oregon but for the first time he was positive on chance of rain in chennai
Then the ts came inside 30km then came our Anvil man Mouli reporting heavy rain from Ambattur forest with him was Siva from Ambattur.
Then came Gajendra who was traveling he was reporting micro drizzles from Anna Nagar to Mogappair then saw the heavy rains when he crossed amb estate
Then arrived Jon ,ODM , Rohit ,Krishna and Gopal Gowri who reported heavy rains from SS.
Then Jeet , Tuboli reported rains from Perambur and nunga respectively
What a fun it was full thriller and excitement with a great finish
Good bye SWM 2015
See you next year
By 2.30 am, I met chandramouli, enroute to my native. He was sitting in his balcony enjoying the downpour.
Gaje Its nice to meet u 🙂
Nobody in this blog have met with person at 2am but we did :p
Fantastic downpour
Gud morning blogers .awesome night yedterday it was far better from last night what a rain and it continous till 6 am awesome superb climate .and feeling very cool . Looks like mjo in phase 2 which favors chennai and it rained for 3 consecutive days .by the way “Bye bye SWM” ;( “welcome NEM ” 😉
Where is the arabian sea depressin that also dissipating fastly?
Fizzled due to the dry air interaction from the north.
Today rain land to sea or sea to land ?
Wind direction favour of nem?
Good morning everyone, it has been a fantastic journey in predicting out the TS this swm season. I learnt a lot of things in this swm. Swm signed off with a great note last night. Kudoos to PJ and RSARO. Hopefully our NEM will be a super duper hit this year, looking forward to the journey.
Bybyee SWM, welcome our beloved NEM….
Oct 11 2015 : The Times of India (Chennai)
The wind directions will change from the westerlies to easterlies in a day or two Pradeep John to TOI
——————————————————————————————————————-
Mercury in city goes up as clouds keep away
After the downpour on Friday night brought temperatures down in the city , Saturday was two degrees hotter than normal at a maximum temperature of 35.7 degrees Celsius. Weathermen, though, have predicted light rain in the next two days.
“The temperature rose as there was no cloud cover and as there was only land breeze,“ said regional meteorological centre deputy director general S B Thampi. The forecast for maximum and minimum temperature for Monday is 35 degrees Celsius and 26 degrees Celsius respectively .
Thampi predicted that the city may get normal or slightly below normal rainfall this northeast monsoon. “Overall, Tamil Nadu will get plentiful rain this monsoon. Rain from the northeast winds could commence around October 20,“ he said.
The southwest monsoon is yet to withdraw. The wind directions will change from the westerlies to easterlies in a day or two, said independent weather blogger Pradeep John.
The change in wind direction is a prelude to the withdrawal of the southwest monsoon.
Corroborating Thampi’s observation, John said, “The city may get deficient rain this October. The southern parts of Tamil Nadu though will receive excess rain.“
The temperature rose above 35 degrees Celsius around 2pm on Saturday compared to 31 degrees Celsius on Friday . The hottest day of the month over the last 10 years was on October 8 in 2009 when the city seared from a 38-degree mercury rise. The hottest day last October was 36.2 degrees Celsius.
The lowest rainfall recorded during October was in 2009 when the city got 71.8mm rainfall while the highest was 1,077mm in 2005. While the normal rainfall is 59.2mm for the first 10 days of the month, the city received 59mm rain.The city got 19.5 mm rainfall on Saturday .
Any rain for pondy and east looking dark
Like dedicated Storm chasers in Kea Blog there are people all over the world.Over the summer, photographer Mike Olbinski spent an astounding 48 days on the road chasing storms during the monsoon season in his home state of Arizona.
super heavy rains overnight!
Best rains of October!
My mother told Very heavy rains and flood came into apartment!
And my rg recorded 48 mm!
SWM ended in a bang here!
Nunga 14mm!
PAC. Lake areas received good rainfall.
It seems no rain is possible for next few days. Interior may get rains today.
Hi all good morning! Valasaravakkam recorded 31.2mm from last night’s massive thunderstorm, last of SWM! What a finish to SWM! 😉 Good luck to NEM 2015!!!
Ys..spot on
No major rains expected untill 20th!
GT recorded 8mm yesterday
Inspite of an indifferent September Chennai – N ended up at 515 mm for SWM, very close to normal. SWM has been the savior for Chennai – been remarkably consistent and ensure that even in lean years (bvarring 2003?) annual rainfall stays above 110 cm.
but 110cm for 1.5 crore is hardly sufficient.
Nice intro to terminologies (VWS/SST) ahead of the season in todays topic. Hope other regularly used terms are gradually introduced .. Along with prevailant conditions, so that learning for new comer is easy..
what amount of rain in Meenambakkam?
2cm
Today any rain in delta & chidambaram?
Yes good chance
Sea to land or land to sea
top to bottom
Pls tel me wind direction sw or ne
wsw
2cm in our place!
our area?
Min 3cm
how much triplicane area managed. did rains come around 2 am?
Interiors can expect violent storms in the coming days…storms from west vl struggle to move towards coast n put tents n camps in interiors itself once ene winds arrive
After 24th Oct only good rain in chennai, if it give atleast above 200mm surely will be normal for oct
Seems T Nagar just missed the brutal downpour !
how much nunga managed. at what time, storms crossed chennai.
I have no idea Sunspot, Nunga 13.4 mm
I had no idea that it had rained overnight.. was deep asleep
Same
Stormy scenes here at 2:15am
exactly the time I said.
were you awake at that time blogging ODM?
I got up after hearing the sound of smashing doors :O
Chennai AP 21 mm
I’m injured 30 mins operation finished
My toe severely injured
Yesterday night For me
One bike came rushing and hit in my leg
Now I’m not able to walk properly
Toe severely injured
Take care .. why do bikes always target your leg
Doono 😭😭
take care Bijli
Take care! Get well soon
Take care…
TC.
enda, ippadi panra.
take care. nowadays, people who are riding bikes are so casual and irritating. even if we are travelling properly, our lives are in somebody’s hands.
yes they think they are driving aeroplanes….
Bike mattuma.. car lorry bus etc ellamae thaan .. I hate those cars especially from a biker rider’s point of view
but some mentals ride so fast in interior roads. Cars cannot ride fast in interior roads. Bikers are only causing maximum accidents in interior roads. they are dying and also causing others to die.
yes recently near RK salai one biker came at almost 120 kmhr speed… and other biker who did u turn… near that petrol bunk… this very speed guy went and thrased on him… he flew and fell done and 120km guy got severe injuries…but god’s grace there was no
fatalities.
Yes.. in interior roads bikers are very casual but I never exceed 30 in narrow streets even if the street is completely deserted
Take care ameen..I think its second time this year
Take care .
Get well soon Bijli ..
Take care ameen, do,nt worry you will be fine..
Be safe get well soon ameen
Take care! Get well soon
Going by PAC, Meenambakkam has missed out on a 4-5 cm spell
I think tirutani has crossed 200mm, should be 1st station has crossed 200mm.
Good morning
We lost very good actress.. Rip for manorama
Heavy overnight and early morning rains my rg records 37 mm highest since August 30
Omg rip
where?
Saidapet
Atchu is a famous guy from saidapet.. don’t you know??
RIP… Massive Heart Attak It seems…
Last night both Adam and Ambattur were competing with each other
Adam City is Adambakkam ??
Yes of course!
Both, Chennai and Chennai AP stand at 84 mm for October, not bad at all!!
Omg my place only 0.2 mm so sad
Your place has chances today too
rest in peace Madam manorama. your acting was excellent, especially as mother in so many good films like chinna thambi, chinna gounder will remained etched in my memory for ever. I really loved like I loved my grandma. thank u so much.
Yesterday doc given 5 injections
Is rain possible for today?
Ambattur records 58mm as per my RG ending 8.30am today. Quite Heavy Rainfall around 2am with RR Reaching 100 – 150mm/hr.
Highest 24hrs Rainfall for Ambattur after june.
Omg..it’s massive then
How much for the month?
191mm from oct 1st till today
Is rain possible for today?
Place?
Less chance…. Winds changing gradually… In next 24-36 hours it ll change totally to Easterlies
Chidambaram today possible?
Slim chances only… Can’t be big though
u r in chidambaram?
Yes
very hot place.
Near 6 km
Both nungambakkam and Meenambakkam got 30% of October rainfall already…
Still normal October is very much possible even if onset is weak
Only 18 mm here. . Looked like more
same pinch here… also same…
RIP Manorama, a dedicated, humble, simple, actress who has lived as an inspiration for many of us.
i think NEM will good start in kerala
Wait delta & chidambaram get massive
Flop Rains Here! ): ):
Only 18 mm Here.
loved to see roads wet when I saw the road in the morning.
A study confirms that Cyclone “OGNI” in 2006 was steered by flows representing layers that was sufficiently higher where the cyclonic circulation associated with the storm disappeared….
It was Also The Smallest Cyclone In BOB right?
Yeah , not sure though , but yes it was less than 100 km (core area)
Vellore – 47 mm
Wow Ambattur overtaken vellore by 11mm that too when storms from west :p
IMD website map shows only 4 places of TN in their main page whereas AP gets 10 places. recently that interactive map has been updated but TN got only 4 cities in that map. even karnataka has only 4 four places.
U have any enemy in ap……
Ap is vast state… Very big……..
no enemy atchu. pointed out the recent changes in that map. truncated AP is little bigger than TN but population of TN is 7 crores, wheres newly formed AP is only 5.5 crore. I find AP state meteorology department is very active compared to sleeping TN IMD. TN is the most urbanised state in entire india with 12 corporations but we have only 4 cities in that list. I pointed out that deficiency.
Thala how much did it rain here?
Actually Cyclone “OGNI” was best studied with RADAR observations from Chennai, Sriharikota and Machilipatnam. It would have been even more interesting if there was Karaikal RADAR back then, unfortunately it is not even till date. An amazing system tracking all along the coast …
Congratulations @sunspot2014:disqus You Have Crossed 6K Comments.
thank you for finding out that fact. Really enjoyed blogging here sharing my own issues, points.
Yes Your Welcome!
How do you keep observing everyone’s comments count.. I’ve always noticed that you will be the first one to observe and congratulate .. anyways good work.. do congratulate me when I reach some landmark
Yes Of Course! I will surely congratulate you,
In one way OGNI was a product of E-W shear zone.
Wind changing to ne now at 1.8 to 2.4km level. Showing in radar vvp2.
yes it is
OK, my manual Rg finally records 43 mm from early morning rain’s. In kk ngr.
Here 48mm
Sat image!
ARB system buss…
temp.. it is expected to peak in few hrs. now fresh convection flaring up
Omg where is the deep depression 😦
Nunga over takes GT for the second time
Nunga 14mm
GT 8MM😭😭😭😭
14 is my birthday, see what happened to me yesterday.. Feeling sad 😔
Hpy bday
Don’t feel sad, evil eye’s effect is cast off
Thanks all
The weather prediction in all weather sites showing rain for west coast not to East coast after 15th oct.
How SWM is strong only for west coast, but NEM giving rains for west coast also many times.
Dint sombody say all models failed yesterday?? :p
i told yesterday….
massive rains were expected…?
ECMWF s analysis indicates surface pressure is higher than normal across Bay and peninsular India until 18th October.
Heavy Rains lashed Chennai region early morning, ending 8.30 am on 11.10.2015
=================================
The trend of daily rains continue.
in mm
Nemili (near Arakonam) – 53
Ellapuram (Near Thamaraipakkam) – 33
Poonamalle – 32
Chembarabakkam – 30
Anna University – 23
Puzhal – 23
Sriperumbud
Chennai AP – 21
Kancheepuram – 20
Kadambathur (Near Tiruvallur) – 16
Kolapakkam (behind AP) – 16
Tiruttani PTO – 14
Chennai City – 13
Ambattur Agro – 13
Tiruvallur – 10
Madhavaram – 10
Taramani – 10
Avadi – 9
Minjur – 7
Ennore – 5
Sathyabama University – 5
Hindustan University – 5
Mouli reported 58mm for Ambattur
Ambattur Agro only 13? Its under reporting it PJ.
Omg here in my RG 58mm
How long is agro from your place??
Its 2km from here. The RG located In dunlop. Few days before agro RG was reported 50mm + but my RG only 10mm. PAC confirms in and around Ambattur 40mm +
That villivakkam panchayat union office should be some where 10 kms away from Ambattur…. today morning I enquired at the other place, they said no such measurement are taken in their premises.
Oh thanks gaje. Shocked to see such a least reading
Today early morning itself, I have posted 5cm in your area after witnessing the downpour.
Oh OK..
After long time in news.
http://epaperbeta.timesofindia.com/Article.aspx?eid=31807&articlexml=Mercury-in-city-goes-up-as-clouds-keep-11102015003059
Congrats
Congrats sir!
Is this wet onset ?
http://www.imd.gov.in/section/nhac/dynamic/nwp/168hGFSrain.htm
Onset conditions does not seem to be in the vicinity even up to 20th October.
Will there be a NEM this year
Will be there for sure …only disappointment on Medium range and not on the long range
Ivaruku vera velaye illa
Will there be 2016?
is that a onset ?
For those, who calls NE wind onset as NEM onset
Yesterday after TS passing on city ot became an super squall in sea. It was insane
Here are the radar imgs
That matter released ?
Yes
Take care
Thanks again
Take Care ameen
Take care Ameenu
Take care Ameenbijli
Models are indicating the possible anomalous higher than normal surface pressure values spreading across much of South and SE Asia for the next five days until 15th October, quite high on the scale for complete south Bay stretch especially. Beyond 15th Oct the pressure values still anomalously high across the region but comparatively lesser than 11-15 th stretch pentad.
http://www.imd.gov.in/section/nhac/dynamic/nwp/120hgfs_mslp.htm
Seems we have a flaring guest there in 140 E- 150 E longitude stretch …
The SWM send off rains to Chennai was awesome.
Forget rains for Chennai in coming week.
😭😭😭😱😱😱
Tday north interiors might score.. and trichy-ariyalur-salem might see the strongest thunderstorm. few areas of delta region also might see some action..if lucky one or two places around chennai cant b ruled out.
Chennai rule out.
Cuddalore and chidambaram possible?
yeah decent chance
OK waiting
Ashwin vs ABD and ABD is struggling.
Ehsan the Ashwin basher is silent. Ashwin is the best spinner in the world. Full of confidence. He is Dhoni/Kohli’s go to man whenever India needs.
Rather than his bat talk, ABD did his mouth talk. He is struggling against spin. I am sure they will struggle more in Tests.
cfs weekly forecast moving into november now
Wow good start to November
An weak EQW coming 16th in Andaman sea.
Oh no. PJ already found excuse for today’s defeat. Ashwin injured
defeat ah. I was taliking about Ashwin. dont be smart.
Cricket and football are team sport. Individual performance sadly doesn’t count for much
Moreover this is a spinner friendly wicket. Of course u can expect a spinner to do well. Moreover I expect India do win all tests as they will be made to suit spinners again.
Expecting gud numbers fr interiors today because of wind discontinuity….
1st six for A b DE, i love him
9 mm for yesterday night spell…october collection now 94 mm
Only 9mm in mogappair?
yeah..started really well..but didn’t happen much
Definitely a strong easterly wave entering bob on the third week of this month which can turn into our first nem system until then nothing major on the cards so there will be a poor start for the Oct
The Real vijay.
News from secret source : Sai Krishna is organising some hartal in front of your house, with Sel.
Lol
sai is good boy.
Chilra paiyan comedy piece…
this was during Villu Flop… actually the fans we were making sounds…
Guys, if any system forms in Arabian sea during peak swm season..
Why that system moving towards westwards even though winds will be from west to east by strong westerlies…. Ridge too ll support..
How comes system moving away from swm region sometimes
A cyclone formed this year just around onset time..it moved away because of HPA in central india & absence of monsoon axis..
No in july,august too
The depression in June in ARB moved into Gujarat and dumped a lot of moisture., some place got 600mm in 24 hours. I don’t recall any system in ARB during july/aug.
My guess is…In general, Earth’s rotation deflects any storm in a northwest direction in northern hemisphere.
According to MJO forecasts, convective suppressed phase is expected to stay across this part of the globe at least until 20 th Oct.
After that damaka only
If onset between 20-21, I.ll be very happy…
I ll be in chennai to enjoy rains in Pooja holidays…
I think before that itself we might see a weak onset
Oh noooo….
I badly need onset during Pooja Holidays!
Same here….
Would be good if that happens.
Ashwin is back🎉
Super hot sunday………!!!!!!
Same here
Enjoy……
Is this super hot??
Not super hot but very sunny
Nice… In chennai ok climate now..
Bright sunny day!
Just come out and see skies and feel….
Lol
Yes atchu , something chillness in air
Not at all bright.. Very dull climate this is
IMD expecting rains today too chennai but not much
IMD spot on predicting chennai rainfall for past 4 days
yeah…
yes there is chance but nothing like past few days.
Rishi Dhawan, Hardik Pandya and Vijay shankar are the Medium Pace bowlers in the country. Why the hell Stuart Binny
Stuart Binny
his father in selection commitee
Binny is not so bad isn’t?
Is there any chance to rain in poonamallee and Avadi for today?
yes but rains wont be widespread or heavy like yesterday.
GFS indicates some rains on 25th from a trough followed by the first major circulation this NEM in BOB
we may see a circulation near lakshadweep/maldives in few days which may move west into arb sea..further development shld b monitored
Yea models hinting at that circulation for a while.. Looks like deltas and S TN might see some rains from the sea
The 850 hpa level winds would turn northeasterly as the day progresses.
Here is the first easterly wave impacting TN, a minor one is expected on 17th/18th but its way too feeble and filled with dry air!!
After the axis passes – first rains from the wave
no other promising sight apart from this..so imd got to go with tis
GEM developing this one to some extent
equatorial westerlies seen in this as well…could be a possible response to the system in Vietnam
Overnight rains here
my rg recorded 16mm
total this month 82mm
Lol even Nunga is ahead of ur place
Yes my area lowest in whole tn
Lol
Hi SFN
what ?
Susu from Nunga ( SFN) 😜
Nunga over takes GT. 😭😭😭😭😭
Deltas might land a jackpot today
OCTOBER
1/10/15 – 1mm
2/10/15 – 4mm
3/10/15 – 32mm
4/10/15 – 11mm
7/10/15 – 31mm
8/10/15 – 4mm
9/10/15 – 26mm
10/10/15- 8mm
Total = 117mm till oct 10 from 1st oct 2015
GT rf observations
red spots viewing will it develop to massive?
Heavy rains in Hyderabad
Jodimetla – 59 mm
west marredpally – 41 mm
Imd Hyderabad – 39 mm
Begampet Airport – 38 mm
Secunderabad – 32 mm
Khairatabad – 30 mm
October rains in Hyderabad…
Atlast a normal October
Rains from oct 1 to oct 11
Bandlaguda – 136 mm
Secunderabad – 96 mm
Imd Hyderabad – 81 mm
First easterly wave likely to hit on pooja holidays
wind pattern already changed. Now guess the TS movement.
ENE- WSW
Already wind changed to NE
Yes. Waiting for popus over NE, ENE, btw, has the wind changed for permanent?
Perfectly from East for sure.
Anaicut 7cm imd missed lot of stations
Only Trp and Tnj updated lol
Weird :p
I remember it happening in 2013. Then suddenly they updated all stations and Vriddhachalam topped with 12 cm