Depression intensified over Arabian Sea

The depression over east central Arabian Sea moved west-northwestwards and intensified into deep depression over the same area roughly 500kms away from Indian west coast. High sea surface Temperature (SST), Low Vertical Wind Shear (VWS) are the crucial factors which feeds and maintains any tropical systems. In this case the SST is seen satisfying the conditions for the disturbance but VWS is just marginally favorable. So this disturbance may see slight intensification for next 18-24 hrs which could elevate this to TROPICAL STROM category. Thereafter the system would move into poor environment which is surrounded by dry air, leading to weakening of the system gradually as it moves northwestwards in next 2-3 days.


No significant rainfall warning for most parts of southern peninsular states. However Thunderstorms would occur over isolated parts of Northern parts of TN and Rayalaseema.

02. India_Sat (1)

Chennai: Day might start with clear sky with few patches of cumulus clouds expected around noon. Max temp likely be around 34-35c with scattered thunderstorms activity by evening.

Vellore: Temp may settle around 32-33C with good chance of heavy showers by early evening.

Coimbatore: Another warm day expected with max temp around 32-33C

Madurai: Temp expected to be around 35-36C with moderate chance of thunderstorms in one or two places.

Trichy: Another rainy day expected for the areas in and around the city. Max temp may settle near 36c

940 thoughts on “Depression intensified over Arabian Sea

  1. The night which I will never forget
    The night which I didn’t slept for a second
    The night that looked boring at the start ended with full excitement
    The night that gave us the last ts of SWM 2015

  2. Last night was awesome it started with four characters
    First Arkrishna. Credit goes to him he was so confident that it will rain tonight whatever direction the ts moved he was so confident that it will hit chennai
    Next is Naresh he first found out ts was moving towards us then got scared that it was moving more North then at the last moment he got the gift from nature
    Third is Rame this guy was worried more about the unstable wind than the ts but got the rains which he needed
    Fourth is the great Oregon uncle Rajesh he was enjoying rains in Oregon but for the first time he was positive on chance of rain in chennai
    Then the ts came inside 30km then came our Anvil man Mouli reporting heavy rain from Ambattur forest with him was Siva from Ambattur.
    Then came Gajendra who was traveling he was reporting micro drizzles from Anna Nagar to Mogappair then saw the heavy rains when he crossed amb estate
    Then arrived Jon ,ODM , Rohit ,Krishna and Gopal Gowri who reported heavy rains from SS.
    Then Jeet , Tuboli reported rains from Perambur and nunga respectively
    What a fun it was full thriller and excitement with a great finish
    Good bye SWM 2015
    See you next year

    • By 2.30 am, I met chandramouli, enroute to my native. He was sitting in his balcony enjoying the downpour.

      • Gaje Its nice to meet u πŸ™‚
        Nobody in this blog have met with person at 2am but we did :p
        Fantastic downpour

  3. Gud morning blogers .awesome night yedterday it was far better from last night what a rain and it continous till 6 am awesome superb climate .and feeling very cool . Looks like mjo in phase 2 which favors chennai and it rained for 3 consecutive days .by the way “Bye bye SWM” ;( “welcome NEM ” πŸ˜‰

  4. Good morning everyone, it has been a fantastic journey in predicting out the TS this swm season. I learnt a lot of things in this swm. Swm signed off with a great note last night. Kudoos to PJ and RSARO. Hopefully our NEM will be a super duper hit this year, looking forward to the journey.
    Bybyee SWM, welcome our beloved NEM….

  5. Oct 11 2015 : The Times of India (Chennai)

    The wind directions will change from the westerlies to easterlies in a day or two Pradeep John to TOI

    Mercury in city goes up as clouds keep away

    After the downpour on Friday night brought temperatures down in the city , Saturday was two degrees hotter than normal at a maximum temperature of 35.7 degrees Celsius. Weathermen, though, have predicted light rain in the next two days.

    β€œThe temperature rose as there was no cloud cover and as there was only land breeze,β€œ said regional meteorological centre deputy director general S B Thampi. The forecast for maximum and minimum temperature for Monday is 35 degrees Celsius and 26 degrees Celsius respectively .

    Thampi predicted that the city may get normal or slightly below normal rainfall this northeast monsoon. β€œOverall, Tamil Nadu will get plentiful rain this monsoon. Rain from the northeast winds could commence around October 20,β€œ he said.

    The southwest monsoon is yet to withdraw. The wind directions will change from the westerlies to easterlies in a day or two, said independent weather blogger Pradeep John.

    The change in wind direction is a prelude to the withdrawal of the southwest monsoon.

    Corroborating Thampi’s observation, John said, β€œThe city may get deficient rain this October. The southern parts of Tamil Nadu though will receive excess rain.β€œ

    The temperature rose above 35 degrees Celsius around 2pm on Saturday compared to 31 degrees Celsius on Friday . The hottest day of the month over the last 10 years was on October 8 in 2009 when the city seared from a 38-degree mercury rise. The hottest day last October was 36.2 degrees Celsius.

    The lowest rainfall recorded during October was in 2009 when the city got 71.8mm rainfall while the highest was 1,077mm in 2005. While the normal rainfall is 59.2mm for the first 10 days of the month, the city received 59mm rain.The city got 19.5 mm rainfall on Saturday .

  6. Like dedicated Storm chasers in Kea Blog there are people all over the world.Over the summer, photographer Mike Olbinski spent an astounding 48 days on the road chasing storms during the monsoon season in his home state of Arizona.

  7. super heavy rains overnight!
    Best rains of October!
    My mother told Very heavy rains and flood came into apartment!

    And my rg recorded 48 mm!
    SWM ended in a bang here!

  8. Hi all good morning! Valasaravakkam recorded 31.2mm from last night’s massive thunderstorm, last of SWM! What a finish to SWM! πŸ˜‰ Good luck to NEM 2015!!!

  9. Inspite of an indifferent September Chennai – N ended up at 515 mm for SWM, very close to normal. SWM has been the savior for Chennai – been remarkably consistent and ensure that even in lean years (bvarring 2003?) annual rainfall stays above 110 cm.

  10. Nice intro to terminologies (VWS/SST) ahead of the season in todays topic. Hope other regularly used terms are gradually introduced .. Along with prevailant conditions, so that learning for new comer is easy..

  11. Interiors can expect violent storms in the coming days…storms from west vl struggle to move towards coast n put tents n camps in interiors itself once ene winds arrive

  12. I’m injured 30 mins operation finished
    My toe severely injured
    Yesterday night For me
    One bike came rushing and hit in my leg
    Now I’m not able to walk properly
    Toe severely injured

  13. Good morning
    We lost very good actress.. Rip for manorama
    Heavy overnight and early morning rains my rg records 37 mm highest since August 30

  14. rest in peace Madam manorama. your acting was excellent, especially as mother in so many good films like chinna thambi, chinna gounder will remained etched in my memory for ever. I really loved like I loved my grandma. thank u so much.

  15. Ambattur records 58mm as per my RG ending 8.30am today. Quite Heavy Rainfall around 2am with RR Reaching 100 – 150mm/hr.
    Highest 24hrs Rainfall for Ambattur after june.

  16. Both nungambakkam and Meenambakkam got 30% of October rainfall already…
    Still normal October is very much possible even if onset is weak

  17. A study confirms that Cyclone “OGNI” in 2006 was steered by flows representing layers that was sufficiently higher where the cyclonic circulation associated with the storm disappeared….

  18. IMD website map shows only 4 places of TN in their main page whereas AP gets 10 places. recently that interactive map has been updated but TN got only 4 cities in that map. even karnataka has only 4 four places.

      • no enemy atchu. pointed out the recent changes in that map. truncated AP is little bigger than TN but population of TN is 7 crores, wheres newly formed AP is only 5.5 crore. I find AP state meteorology department is very active compared to sleeping TN IMD. TN is the most urbanised state in entire india with 12 corporations but we have only 4 cities in that list. I pointed out that deficiency.

  19. Actually Cyclone “OGNI” was best studied with RADAR observations from Chennai, Sriharikota and Machilipatnam. It would have been even more interesting if there was Karaikal RADAR back then, unfortunately it is not even till date. An amazing system tracking all along the coast …

  20. Heavy Rains lashed Chennai region early morning, ending 8.30 am on 11.10.2015
    The trend of daily rains continue.

    in mm

    Nemili (near Arakonam) – 53
    Ellapuram (Near Thamaraipakkam) – 33
    Poonamalle – 32
    Chembarabakkam – 30
    Anna University – 23
    Puzhal – 23
    Chennai AP – 21
    Kancheepuram – 20
    Kadambathur (Near Tiruvallur) – 16
    Kolapakkam (behind AP) – 16
    Tiruttani PTO – 14
    Chennai City – 13
    Ambattur Agro – 13
    Tiruvallur – 10
    Madhavaram – 10
    Taramani – 10
    Avadi – 9
    Minjur – 7
    Ennore – 5
    Sathyabama University – 5
    Hindustan University – 5

  21. Models are indicating the possible anomalous higher than normal surface pressure values spreading across much of South and SE Asia for the next five days until 15th October, quite high on the scale for complete south Bay stretch especially. Beyond 15th Oct the pressure values still anomalously high across the region but comparatively lesser than 11-15 th stretch pentad.

  22. Tday north interiors might score.. and trichy-ariyalur-salem might see the strongest thunderstorm. few areas of delta region also might see some action..if lucky one or two places around chennai cant b ruled out.

    • Ehsan the Ashwin basher is silent. Ashwin is the best spinner in the world. Full of confidence. He is Dhoni/Kohli’s go to man whenever India needs.

  23. Rather than his bat talk, ABD did his mouth talk. He is struggling against spin. I am sure they will struggle more in Tests.

      • Moreover this is a spinner friendly wicket. Of course u can expect a spinner to do well. Moreover I expect India do win all tests as they will be made to suit spinners again.

  24. Definitely a strong easterly wave entering bob on the third week of this month which can turn into our first nem system until then nothing major on the cards so there will be a poor start for the Oct

  25. Guys, if any system forms in Arabian sea during peak swm season..
    Why that system moving towards westwards even though winds will be from west to east by strong westerlies…. Ridge too ll support..
    How comes system moving away from swm region sometimes

  26. According to MJO forecasts, convective suppressed phase is expected to stay across this part of the globe at least until 20 th Oct.

  27. Rishi Dhawan, Hardik Pandya and Vijay shankar are the Medium Pace bowlers in the country. Why the hell Stuart Binny

    • we may see a circulation near lakshadweep/maldives in few days which may move west into arb sea..further development shld b monitored

      • Yea models hinting at that circulation for a while.. Looks like deltas and S TN might see some rains from the sea

  28. Here is the first easterly wave impacting TN, a minor one is expected on 17th/18th but its way too feeble and filled with dry air!!

    1/10/15 – 1mm
    2/10/15 – 4mm
    3/10/15 – 32mm
    4/10/15 – 11mm
    7/10/15 – 31mm
    8/10/15 – 4mm
    9/10/15 – 26mm
    10/10/15- 8mm

    Total = 117mm till oct 10 from 1st oct 2015

  30. Heavy rains in Hyderabad

    Jodimetla – 59 mm
    west marredpally – 41 mm
    Imd Hyderabad – 39 mm
    Begampet Airport – 38 mm
    Secunderabad – 32 mm
    Khairatabad – 30 mm

  31. October rains in Hyderabad…
    Atlast a normal October

    Rains from oct 1 to oct 11

    Bandlaguda – 136 mm
    Secunderabad – 96 mm
    Imd Hyderabad – 81 mm

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