Depression offshore west coast

The Depression over east central Arabian Sea has remained almost stationary over the same region. It is expected to move slowly north-northwestwards during the next 24 hours and might go in for another round of intensification to strengthen itself to a Deep Depression. Under its influence, strong winds of the order 40 kmph likely to persist offshore Kanara and Konkan coasts, and hence fishermen have been advised not to venture in for deep sea fishing.

ezindia1_day2

Meanwhile, the Well-marked Low near north eastern states and adjoining Myanmar has lost its buoyancy and its steam, thus bringing down rains going forward. In the south, Thunderstorms may occur at some parts of north TN.

sector-irc

Chennai will have a partly cloudy day with a day time max temp settling close to 33 C. Isolated places can see some Thunderstorm activity.

Coimbatore will stay much comfortable at 31 C. May be a chance of light rains.

Madurai will remain warm at 35C.

Vellore will see day time maximum in the lower to mid-thirties. Rains may be possible during the day time.

Trichy, continues to be warm. Max temps will peak around 35C.

1,573 thoughts on “Depression offshore west coast

  1. Gud morning blogers superb rain last night and what a climate its 26 c feeling cool and still drizzling @ royapettah (chennai)

  2. WHY IT’S HARD TO TRACK THE RAIN
    ———————–
    The Met office has predicted a bountiful northeast monsoon this year. “This is not based on random intuition,“ said Raj. “It is based on our observation of the El Nino effect, satellite images and data collected for more than a century ,“ he said.
    =========================
    Weather Forecasting Not Intuitive, Say Met Officials, Weathermen Use Statistical Tools, Historical Data To Predict Showers

    It is that time of the year when the city awaits the onset of the monsoon.It is also the time when jokes on the weatherman and his forecasts tend to do the rounds. But weather forecasting is more than just a prediction game,

    Despite several advancements we are unable to predict weather so well mainly because we do not have enough automatic weather stations,“ said B N Suresh, Vikram Sarabhai distinguished professor at Isro, who was in the city to deliver a lecture.

    http://epaperbeta.timesofindia.com/Article.aspx?eid=31807&articlexml=WHY-ITS-HARD-TO-TRACK-THE-RAIN-10102015002017#

    • Statistical tools, data, and forecasting tools all available. However understanding / interpretation of the results is more important. Continuously doing this job / hobby gives some intuitive skills to a person. So intuitive skill also has got some percentage role in forecasting.

      • exactly , personal skills do come into focus. But that is sometimes much good for short range predictions.

  3. Good morng.. Third day rain in a row.. That was a trembling and scary thunders around 11.30pm.. I think rr was much high, little rain water came inside thru windows.

  4. Smashing rains here last night!
    Rg recorded 32mm here
    Totaly tis oct 112.8+32=144.8mm
    I ‘m very happy start the music
    Tanuku tanuku tanuku tan tan:-D

  5. The surge from east China and its flow into SCS are not that impressive until the 20th of this month. A possible equatorial wave activity may coincide with local north easterly flows from the anticyclone in Indian region which might give some rains the around the middle of this month for south TN. Real strong tropical easterly moisture regime is not evident until the 20th of this month for Bob.

  6. Depression in Arabian Sea, Kanyakumari district very very heavy rains ending 8.30 am on 09.10.2015. Its just massive.
    ======================

    All stations in Kanyakumari in mm

    Chittar I – 216
    Thiruvattar – 199
    Upper Kodayar – 190
    Tiruparappu – 171
    Killiyoor – 157
    Lower Kodayar – 147
    Chittar II – 136
    Pechiparai – 128
    Thackalai – 120
    Puthen Dam – 117
    Perunchani – 116
    Anaikadangu – 116
    Mylaudy – 115
    Suralode – 114
    Rajakkamangalam – 113
    Boothapandy – 111
    Thovala – 108
    Kulasekharam – 106
    Mambaazhathuriyaru – 104
    Koliporvilai – 101
    Poigai – 91
    Aralvoizmozhi – 91
    Kuzhithurai – 90
    Nagercoil – 78
    Munchirai – 77
    Kurunthancode – 76
    Neyoor – 74
    Balmore – 72
    Mulankivilai – 68
    Adayamadai – 56
    Kottaram – 56
    Agastiswaram – 39
    Kanyakumari – 36
    Colachel – 26
    Eraniel – 22
    Kannimar – 22

  7. An easterly wave is likely to impact TN around 17th/18th. It is carrying a lot of moisture to the east of its axis as usual. But much of this moisture is likely to exit through E and NE India. Whatever remains should be able to trigger some rain

  8. Don’t worry guys .. NEM is around the corner. Hopefully NEM onset possible in Oct 14-18th . NEM onset is not weak this time .. Good rains possible over coastal tamilnadu during onset 😁

  9. Weak onset confirmed. But widespread rainfall needed for IMD Delhi to declare NEM. Ramanan may have to wait… unlike 2 years back

  10. A perturbation in lower levels seem to be developing near interior western TN and adjoining Kerala after 48 hours according to IMD. A similar one was seen some 2 weeks before , during which Cbe and surroundings got some heavy spells. After developing in the interiors , it is expected to move out to Arabian Sea.

  11. Daily Rains continue in Chennai and Surrounding Region, ending 8.30 am on 10.10.2015
    =====================================
    Redhills Lake get inflow of 111 cusecs.

    in mm

    Uthukottai – 41
    Poondi Lake – 27
    Redhills Lake – 21
    Chennai City – 20
    Madhavaram – 18
    Tiruttani – 15
    Katupakkam – 14
    Avadi – 14
    Cholavaram Lake – 12
    Chrompet – 11
    Puzhal – 11
    Tamaraipakkam – 9
    Ambattur – 9
    Tharamani – 8
    Poonamalle – 7
    Kancheepuram – 6
    Ellapuram (Near Thamaraipakkam) – 5
    Ennore – 5
    Sathyabama University – 5
    Minjur – 5
    Hindustan University – 5

  12. Today its going to be massive TS probably the last one from West to come to Chennai this year. We wont hear westla kelambidichu for 8 more months.

  13. yea as pj said massive day ahead for extreme north coastal ,north interior regions..pondi,cuddalore,villupuram as well .Small stretch of karaikal,nagai,delta areas may also see a storm… and as usual most active area would b gadanki-Madanapalle-chittoor surroundings..

  14. we said the same last year that it will rain in october first,then november, and moved to december and said extended monsoon to new year. This is like Dhoni waiting for last 4 overs to score 70 odd runs for CSK.

  15. Ongole got 46.4 degree max temperature this year…
    It should get atleast 460 mm in october…which seems merely impossible

  16. NORTHEAST MONSOON LIKELY TO BE NORMAL IN 2015
    October 7, 2015
    Skymet
    Right after the withdrawal of Southwest Monsoon, the winter or the Northeast Monsoon enters the mainland of India. Northeast Monsoon mainly affects five subdivisions of Peninsular India namely, Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema and South Interior Karnataka.

    During El Nino years, Southwest Monsoon brings poor rains in India but Northeast Monsoon brings normal or above normal rains. Besides this, there are no other established linkages between the performances of Southwest and Northeast Monsoon.
    Analyzing the data available from 2004 to 2011, we can say that Northeast Monsoon is going through a positive rainfall epoch. To be precise, the five subdivisions of Peninsular India have received normal or more than the normal average rainfall during this period.

    The Southwest Monsoon season, on the other hand, is known for bringing widespread rainfall throughout the country. But, Tamil Nadu generally receives less rainfall during the four-month-long summer Monsoon season. Moreover, we are now going through a drought epoch when it comes to Southwest Monsoon season. So much so that the country has witnessed 4 drought years (2015, 2014, 2004 and 2009) in the last decade. In the recent history, Southwest Monsoon has hardly received double-digit excess rains.

    The Summer Monsoon generally receives +/- 10% rains than the LPA of 887 mm. But, Northeast Monsoon witnesses large variations. The long period average NEMR (Northeast Monsoon Rainfall) is 312 mm, with a standard deviation of 84 mm.

    In 2014, Southwest Monsoon received 12% less rains than normal, while Northeast Monsoon was just 2% deficient. The year before, Northeast Monsoon witnessed 33% less rains even though Southwest Monsoon received normal rains to the tune of 6%.

    The strength of El Nino is not directly linked to the quantum of rainfall during the Winter Monsoon. Just that its existence is connected to Monsoon performance. Thus, we can conclude that Northeast Monsoon 2015 will receive at least normal rains.

  17. October not looking good for drought hit prakasam nellore and other rayalaseema districts……
    Hope it increases rainfall quantum in next runs

    The only pacifying thing is ”GFS long range not at all reliable”

  18. PENINSULAR INDIA GEARS UP FOR NORTHEAST MONSOON
    October 8, 2015
    Skymet
    The first fortnight of October marks the overlapping period for the retreat of Southwest Monsoon and onset of Northeast Monsoon. This is the period for widespread rains in Peninsular India.

    Rainfall at this point of time is mostly the result of convective activities, which take place during the afternoon hours. With the onset of Northeast Monsoon, the pattern of rainfall changes. For instance, rainfall commences after late evening and continues till early morning.
    In this article, we will bring you few characteristics of Northeast Monsoon, also known as Winter Monsoon in India.

    a. Northeast Monsoon begins in mid-October and extends till December. There is no specific date for the onset of Northeast Monsoon.

    b. Northeast Monsoon mainly affects five subdivisions of Peninsular India. These are Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema and South Interior Karnataka.

    c. Yes, other places in Peninsular India also receive some rainfall during this period. Few spells of rain are witnessed up to Mumbai as well.

    d. Northeast Monsoon is the main rainfall season for Tamil Nadu, which lies in the rain shadow area. Coastal areas of the state receive about 60% of the annual rainfall during this period. For the interiors, Northeast Monsoon accounts for 40% of the yearly rains.

    e. The long period average NEMR (Northeast Monsoon Rainfall) is 312 mm, with a standard deviation of 84 mm.

    f. Northeast Monsoon rains are the result of easterly waves, cyclonic circulations and tropical storms.

    g. October is the rainiest period, followed by November and then December. The rainfall table below will explain this statement. October and November comprise of the season for tropical storms originating in the Bay of Bengal.

    h. The East Coast remains vulnerable to tropical storms. We can clue from Phailin, Helen, Hudhud and Nilofar, during the last 2 years.

    i. The first burst of widespread rainfall in Coastal Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu marks the onset of Northeast Monsoon.

  19. Omg !!! What is happening for models ?? Showing less rainfall during NEM onset …
    Surely less rainfall not possible during Onset … As soon as model would change the long range forecast for sure .. Again saying NEM onset possible 14-18th October with very heavy rainfall for coastal areas..

  20. Despite El Nino, next monsoon will be normal, predicts IMD
    Neha Madaan,TNN | Oct 8, 2015, 04.35AM ist

    PUNE: The possibility of a normal monsoon is high next year though its onset might be delayed because of the tail end of El Nino.

    Amid reports from forecasters about the possibility of El Nino continuing during the first few months of 2016, experts from the India Meteorological Department (IMD) found in a recent report that it might remain effective in January and February 2016. But it could start weakening in March, April or May next year.

    Against this backdrop, El Nino is unlikely to affect the monsoon of 2016. At the most, it might only delay the onset of the rainy season, the experts claimed. They added that the monsoon rainfall is usually normal or above normal following strong El Nino years.

    The possibility of normal rainfall next year would bring a sense of relief among residents after below par precipitation this year. But the delayed monsoon forecast makes it imperative for the civic administration to meticulously plan usage of drinking water to make it last till the rains arrive to recharge the dams.

    A recent El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) report by the Met department stated that the moderate El Nino conditions prevailing at present were likely to become stronger and then weaken in the coming months. It could last till the early part of next year.

    The report stated that the probability of strong El Nino conditions was 100% from September this year to January 2016.

  21. Towering Cumulonimbus over NW near Nagalapuram. Orographical Lifting of Surface heat getting transferred to upper levels. Clearly visible from here :p

  22. In all likelihood, the Arabian system could turn out to be the swansong for the South-West monsoon because towards its rear, easterly (opposing) winds are forecast to emerge into the Andaman Sea.

    In a way, the system would provide the pivot around which the south-westerly wind regime would shift to being easterly-to-north-easterly across the southern peninsula.

    • This is expected to happen from October 15, which is the median date for the onset of the North-East monsoon, or the monsoon in reverse, over Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Karnataka and parts of Andhra Pradesh.

      This is also why October-November is known to be most prone to the birth of tropical cyclones in the surrounding seas.

      In fact, India Met projections indicate that just as the depression turns away from the West Coast, easterlies in the making conjuring up a circulation over Sri Lanka.

      This could bring in heavy showers to Sri Lanka, and southern Tamil Nadu and adjoining south Kerala in what could be a pilot of the North-East monsoon.

  23. Massive convection happening over NW near Nagalapuram/Nagari. Entire west looks good with mid level clouds at the distant

  24. after a long time, IMD nungambakkam yesterday recorded a decent 19 MMS whereas most of the other central, south chennai not much. really nice to see those figures for IMD, Nungambakkam.
    ss

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