Twin WML to Spur Heavy Rainfall over NE States and West Coast of India

keaweather 2015, KEA Blog, NEM-2015

Yesterday’s Low Pressure area over North Bay and SE Arabian Sea has intensified into a Well Marked Low Pressure Area in the same place. This is likely to bring more rainfall over NE States and West Coast of India. WML over North Bay likely to cross Bangladesh and Adjoining Myanmar coast by today and weaken gradually. This will bring heavy rainfall at isolated places over NE States.

ezindia1_day2

WML over SE Arabian Sea is likely to intensify further into a Depression in next 24 hours and it is expected to move in Northerly Direction. This system likely to bring Heavy rainfall over Coastal Karnataka and North Kerala, also in some parts of Konkan and Goa for the next 24 hours.
02. India_Sat (1)

Chennai – Day temp likely to be around 35C, with rain possible in some areas during evening or night.

Coimbatore – To remain cloudy during the day with max temp to be around 32C, light rain possible.

Madurai – The sky to remain partly cloudy, with day temp to touch 35C.

Tiruchirapalli – Day to remain hotter with temp to touch 36C, rain or thundershowers possible towards evening or night.

Vellore – Sky to remain cloudy with chances of Rain or Thunderstorms during evening or night. Max temp likely to around 33 to 34C.

1,494 thoughts on “Twin WML to Spur Heavy Rainfall over NE States and West Coast of India”

  1. Out of nowhere, Kea will appear now and ask (for the 78th time)… “Out of this 10000, how much did u contribute to urself?”
    Avarukku idhethaan vela 😀

    Reply

  7. 12 October (Day 4): Heavy rainfall would occur at isolated places over Tamilnadu.
    13 October (Day 5): Heavy rainfall would occur at isolated places over Kerala & Tamilnadu.
    Imd Delhi mid day report

    Reply

  9. The wind from SE direction near Sumatra reduces the intensity from tomorrow. Today it is with 26 KM/Hr, this wind speed getting reduced from tomorrow, hence upwelling in EIO will get reduced too. As of today the significant wave height is around 1.9M, yesterday it was more than 2.0 metres, from tomorrow it is going to be around 1.8 metres. Also over WIO the wave height to increase this will increase the SST gradually over EIO, this will eventually lead to weakening of Positive IOD.

    The wind speed reduces due to wind direction changes due to nearing NEM onset.

    http://earth.nullschool.net/#2015/10/10/0900Z/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-278.40,0.69,1290

    http://earth.nullschool.net/#2015/10/10/0900Z/ocean/primary/waves/overlay=significant_wave_height/orthographic=-278.40,0.69,1290

    Reply

    • Exactly as per my and guest11k thoughts and discussions. Unless IOD turns super strong +ve IOD (like 1997 style), GOD also can not stop hyper-activeness in peninsular seas👍👌👌

      Reply

      • Few of these west-Pacific/South China sea pulses will enter directly/create pulses in BOB.

      • what is exactly a pulse..technically ? some sort of disturbance leading to a trough like situation?

      • Yes. These are get induced in BOB by W/NW/or sometimes NE ward directed West-Pacific/South China sea typhoons.

  23. Are you seeing how both BOB &Arabian systems intensified with good convection??? Likewise during NEM season also if LPA forms, then this LPA will intensify very rapidly in no time. But models may not hint this unexpected rapid intensification due to Elnino-reds.😆😆😆

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    Reply

  25. Partha, Full permanent surge may not be before 15th October at any cost. We should not see the null-maps in zoom-in manner, which gives false impression of NE winds due to temporary local circulations. Realtime permanent NEM-surge awaiting till at gulf of siam in all maps posted by you below😆👍

    Reply

  28. last week i read in a paper, Imd Chennai, has said for Calculation purpose, any rains that fall in October, will be calculated in NEM account

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  30. Anyone please tell me will there be any October-chennai cyclone as per my mysterious forecast?? I made that forecast based on my 6th sense😆😆😂😂

    Reply

      • It must be in October. Real time will vary. After this dry phase will start followed by 2 back to back cyclones for SAP/NTN. This year is dedicated for NTN/SAP👍😆

      • on what basis you are expecting a hit…prevailing easterlies will embed into a low and subsequent intensification …favorable ridge and IOD?

      • 1. Based on this year’s SWM pulses rapid intensification with out a single miss in either of the seas. 2. Based on past few years hyper-active ness in NEM pulses with strong ONI index with devolving IOD index 3. By super imposing all important indexes like MJO, SOI, IOD, QBO, NAO, ONI, etc.,with respect to previous strong Elnino years.

    • Rami,

      I too made this forecast after 20th, do you remember that?
      We have chance for a system for sure by end of October. Kelvin to become stronger in Phase 3 by 3rd week and this should trigger the beginning of weakening IOD, followed by MJO.

      MJO to emerge in Phase 2 by 26th, This is going to be a strong one in Phase 3 and to last for more number of days.

      The below points are the reason for above normal november this time.

      Kelvin stronger in Phase 3, MJO strengthening in phase 3, sst increases in EIO, IOD weakening,

      Reply

      • My hopes on that only. My confidence level increased after that pulse indicated by ECMWF😆👍

  31. Rami, what do you mean by this statement ? 😮

    “No one can stop NEM rains unlike 2012/2013.”

    Reply

  36. As expected the intensity on MJO-OLR going to increase. But why it’s in split manner??😇😇😂😂http://mikeventrice.weebly.com/mjo.html

    Reply

  37. South Asian high showing some responsive movements to diabatic heating core over the last few days…Large scale latent heating seems to do the job , irrespective of isolated heat source cases……

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  38. Why do I sometimes hear meteorologists use the word “convection” when talking about thunderstorms?

    Usually created by surface heating, convection is upward atmospheric motion that transports whatever is in the air along with it especially any moisture available in the air. A thunderstorm is the result of convection.

    Reply

    • Why same principle can not be applied to a thunderstorm?? All thunderstorms happened over chennai are forced by a synoptic system or EQuatorial waves or E-W sheaf zone. Till today in 2015 we haven’t yet seen pure unforced Thunder storm. Hope we see in coming days👍😆

      Reply

  43. “The depression over eastcentral Arabian sea remain practically stationary and lay centred at 1430 hours IST
    of today, the 9th October, 2015 near Latitude 14.0°N and Longitude 70.3°E, about 410 km west­southwest of
    Goa and 630 km south­southwest of Mumbai. It likely to move slowly north­northwestwards and intensify into a
    deep depression during next 48 hours.”

    Reply

  45. A better place to study the thunderstorms is to stay in villages near Nallamala hills in Srisailam in Kurnool district….
    especially in March April May June..

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    • Believe it or not….I have witnessed nearly 20 rainy days in Atmakur mandal…5 to 6 times hails in may 2012

      Reply

  46. Convectional Rainfall

    Stage 1 – The sun heats the ground and warm air rises.

    Stage 2 – As the air rises it cools and water vapour condenses to form clouds.

    Stage 3 – When the condensation point is reached large cumulonimbus clouds are formed.

    Stage 4 – Heavy rain storms occur. These usually include thunder and lightening due to the electrical charge created by unstable conditions.


    Reply

    • One line answer

      Hot air from equator and cold air from north never meets in our tropical country…

      Rarely happens in north india and bangladesh

      Reply

    • The four key conditions that enable a Tornado are:

      • Moisture in the lower to mid levels of the atmosphere.
      • Unstable air. That is, air that will continue rising once it begins rising from near the ground.
      • A lifting force. Something is needed to cause the air to begin rising. The most common lifting force is heating of air near the ground. As the air warms it becomes lighter and begins rising. Advancing masses of cool air, which force warm air upward, also trigger thunderstorms.
      • Large, flat Plains. In the US strong tornadoes form probably because thunderstorms that spawn tornadoes have room to grow!
      When all the conditions are present, humid air will rise high into the sky and cool and condense into towering clouds, forming thunderstorms. This air rising into a thunderstorm is called an updraft. Tornadoes form within a thunderstorm’s updraft!
      (Source: USATODAY.com)

      Since India is quite smaller than US & climatology of India is tropical, tornadoes rarely happens here. In India, hot air from equator & cold air from poles never meets. So they do happen rarely, & most of them are the weak ones – EF0-Ef2

      To your second question: Yes, they do happen for sure. They happen mostly in eastern India, near Bangladesh during Monsoon season. Tornadoes are even recorded in northern Indian areas, including Delhi, Punjab & Rajasthan. In 2015, two tornadoes were recorded in India – One in Rajasthan & other in Punjab. Both were weak ones, but they did significant damage.

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    • Two different air masses must colloids each other with rapid pace especially over a plain area. USA is sub-tropical (ferrel cycle) where dynamics changes very rapidly unlike tropical Indian climate.

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    • Tornadoes form when different temperatures and humidity meet. Generally, warm air rises, but when the two fronts meet, the cold air can trap the warm air beneath it. Because the warm air cannot move upward, it begins to rotate. As the sun heats the ground, more warm air continues to rise, until finally the mass is strong enough to push through the cold air barrier. The rising warm air pushes the cold air beneath it, creating a rotating column that can span up to 10 miles, while twisting at speeds exceeding 200 miles an hour. Tornadoes forming over warm water are known as waterspouts,

      Reply

    • Where Can Tornadoes Occur?
      Tornadoes have been observed on every continent other than Antarctica but there are areas which have a higher occurrence than others. The US has the most tornadoes annually, normally between 800-1000 a year; many of these occur in ‘Tornado Alley’, this area includes the states of Oklahoma, Texas, Kansas, Nebraska. These states lie between the Rocky Mountains in the West and the Appalachian mountains in the East which is significant as the location of these moutnains aids tornado formation. Great Britain has the highest occurrence of tornadoes per square mile but these are normally considerably weaker than their US counterparts. Bangladesh and Argentina also get a number of tornadoes; this could be due to the similar topography to the US.

      How Are Tornadoes Measured

      Tornadoes are measured using the Fujita Scale proposed by T. Theodore Fujita in 1971. The scale has 6 levels of severity ranging from F0 to F5. The table below shows a simple explanation of the damage and the possible wind speeds associated with the damage.However you may kindly check latest updates on measurement issue – as there have been new methods suggested time to time.

      Wind Rating
      Category Average wind speed (km/h) Damage description
      F0 < 115 Light
      F1 116 – 179 Moderate
      F2 180 – 251 Considerable
      F3 252 – 330 Severe
      F4 331 – 416 Incredible

      http://planetarysocietyindia.blogspot.in/2010/04/tornadoes-in-india-learning-through-us.html

      Reply

      • I think from 2007 fujita scale was upgraded to Enhanced Fujita Scale. So tornadoes are now rated based on the damage they cause. EF0 to EF5 is the scale.

  57. 2 different air masses nothing but 2 air masses (frontal bodies) having different densities 😆😆🙈🙈🙈

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    • In India we can have this phenomenon of colliding 2 different air masses (one is from W/NW winds colliding with other S/SE winds) during spring time till SWM onset. Hence this is our tornado/norwesters embodied tornadoes/Waterspouts time👍

      Reply

      • Wide range probability of this tornado phenomenon occurs in Gangetic plains especially over Bihar, WB, Orissa and Bangladesh. And at isolated places in other eastern and southern parts of India.

      • Yes the Warm and Moist air on the one side and Cold air from the other side both the Air Masses meets and Creates Tornadoes over NE India.

    • This is unique correct representation. But it can not define the isolated tornadoes/water spouts occurring over South Orissa, AP & TN effectively. Especially during Elnino years this threat increases many folds. This year AP had seen more than once fish rain that might be caused by unidentfied near by water spouts👍

      Reply

  60. (JTWC) .THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST AREA 91A) PREVIOUSLY
    LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 71.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 71.1E,
    APPROXIMATELY 340 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MUMBAI, INDIA. ANIMATED
    ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS RESURGENT CONVECTION
    ASSOCIATED WITH A WELL DEFINED AND FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
    CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 081642Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS
    SHALLOW SPIRAL BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC WITH LITTLE
    ORGANIZATION TO THE CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A
    MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH 10 TO 20 KNOT SOUTHEASTERLY
    VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BEING PARTIALLY OFFSET BY GOOD DIVERGENT
    OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE FOR
    FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW LIMITED DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
    DISTURBANCE AS IT TRACKS GENERALLY NORTHWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
    SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 27 TO 32 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
    PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
    DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
    REMAINS HIGH

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  61. One can easily understand why frequency and severity of tornadoes is very less in India when compared to USA..

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  69. On November 30th/December 1st 1952, a cyclone hit Nagapattinam where winds of 241 kph were recorded.. Could’ve been a category 5 at sea !!

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  70. Heavy rains rocking Tirupati town from past 3 days

    Oct 8 – 16 mm
    Oct 7 – 54 mm
    Oct 6 – 62 mm

    But airport lagging

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  71. omg…the oregon rain gauge costs 10000 in amazon now..i think it was around 6K last month

    Reply

  74. I can get the rainfall details of 2 pvt aws in Tirupati

    SVU agri AWS – set up by 3 rd year students as a mini project in the agricutural campus

    St Gobain karakambadi AWS – pvt AWS

    As soon as it rains I can get the rainfall readings in Tirupati from these by my juniors

    Reply

  77. BREAKING NEWS BLOGGERS! For the first time in 3 months, all models are predicting MJO to enter Indian ocean and stay longer!!! Bang on! 😎😎😎

    Reply

  82. India & US Conclude Joint Monsoon Mission

    Data collected during the month-long cruise is expected to help refine the forecasting of monsoon winds.

    Tandon’s team studied the uppermost layer of the Bay of Bengal—which is part of the Indian Ocean and a region of monsoon formation. Although the bay is composed of salt water, large amounts of fresh water from rivers and rainstorms dump into it regularly. “The layer of relatively less salty water near the surface responds rapidly and dramatically to solar heating and nighttime cooling,” said Tandon. “It regulates moisture supply to the atmosphere and can trap the sun’s heat beneath the surface of the water, releasing it into the air weeks, or even months, later—increasing the power of a monsoon.” The researchers used wirewalkers (wave-powered vehicles that can sample water at various depths), buoys, gliders and towed platforms—equipped with data-collecting sensors—to compile information about the Bay of Bengal’s water and air temperature, atmospheric moisture, and mixtures and movements of fresh and salt water—all factors contributing to monsoon activity. “Our field study has mapped out the upper ocean structure of the north Bay of Bengal in unprecedented detail, with cutting-edge oceanography instrumentation, some of which is being used for the first time,” said Tandon. With this research complete, US and Indian scientists will now analyze the cruise data, in the hopes of eventually designing a computer forecasting model to accurately predict future monsoon formation. Read more from Asian Scientist Magazine at: http://www.asianscientist.com/2015/10/academia/india-conclude-month-long-joint-monsoon-mission/

    Read more from Asian Scientist Magazine at: http://www.asianscientist.com/2015/10/academia/india-conclude-month-long-joint-monsoon-mission/

    Reply

  83. Unless strong ER counters MJO, then no one can stop the crazy amplitude in MJO phase 2 (need to see whether it will enter phase 3).

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  84. alleppey beach today evening.rough waves, cloudy skies ,windy weather,strong gusts, intense drizzles and some very happy tourists

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    • I told my Telangana friend based on this 4-5 years interval between 2 ENSO extreme cycles in 2010 itself at Hyderabad. I said 2014/2015 AP/TS states may become drought due to Elnino “by writing 2014 firmly on a board”. But I am not a authenticative person to help anyone. It looks good if enthusiastic persons develop a program to save our 60-70% poor agriculture based farmers.👍

      Reply

  96. 5 RG’s has been reserved by:
    Shiva
    Seshadri
    Vasudevan
    Afzal
    Sriram
    Anyone interest please send me a mail

    Reply

  98. Arabian Sea low dealing with light to moderate shear; center exposed but convection starting to wrap toward center. Courtesy jason

    Reply

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