Twin WML to Spur Heavy Rainfall over NE States and West Coast of India

Yesterday’s Low Pressure area over North Bay and SE Arabian Sea has intensified into a Well Marked Low Pressure Area in the same place. This is likely to bring more rainfall over NE States and West Coast of India. WML over North Bay likely to cross Bangladesh and Adjoining Myanmar coast by today and weaken gradually. This will bring heavy rainfall at isolated places over NE States.

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WML over SE Arabian Sea is likely to intensify further into a Depression in next 24 hours and it is expected to move in Northerly Direction. This system likely to bring Heavy rainfall over Coastal Karnataka and North Kerala, also in some parts of Konkan and Goa for the next 24 hours.
02. India_Sat (1)

Chennai – Day temp likely to be around 35C, with rain possible in some areas during evening or night.

Coimbatore – To remain cloudy during the day with max temp to be around 32C, light rain possible.

Madurai – The sky to remain partly cloudy, with day temp to touch 35C.

Tiruchirapalli – Day to remain hotter with temp to touch 36C, rain or thundershowers possible towards evening or night.

Vellore – Sky to remain cloudy with chances of Rain or Thunderstorms during evening or night. Max temp likely to around 33 to 34C.

1,494 thoughts on “Twin WML to Spur Heavy Rainfall over NE States and West Coast of India

  1. http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/todays-paper/tp-agri-biz-and-commodity/depression-alert-in-arabian-sea-as-monsoon-delivers-a-parting-kick/article7740158.eceThe India Met Department has put out a watch for a monsoon depression to form in the Arabian Sea as a preparatory low-pressure area gained in strength there on Thursday.

    The storm is brewing over Southeast and adjoining East-central Arabian Sea off the Karnataka coast, as per indications available.

    High winds alert

    A 24-hour warning issued by the local weather office said that strong onshore winds from a south-westerly direction speed up to 55 km/hr may lash Kerala coast and over Lakshadweep area.

    Heavy rainfall is likely at isolated places over Kerala during this period. Thiruvananthapuram witnessed scattered showers during overnight and into the day on Thursday.

    The month of October witnesses a shift in the seasonal winds from south-westerly monsoon to north-easterly monsoon. The resulting instability in the atmosphere kicks up violent storms during this phase.

    Weather models differ in their outlook with respect to the likelihood of a full-fledged cyclone emerging in the Arabian Sea.

    Monsoon swansong

    India Met has sounded an alert for a depression in 24 hours, which takes the system in the Arabian Sea to within two rounds of being classified as one.

    The would-be depression is expected to move north along the Karnataka-Konkan coast until Monday, and then move away into the open waters of the Arabian Sea towards Oman.

    In all likelihood, the system could turn out to be the swansong for the South-West monsoon because towards its rear, easterly (opposing) winds are forecast to emerge into the Andaman Sea.

    In a way, the system would provide the pivot around which the south-westerly wind regime would shift to being easterly-to-north-easterly across the southern peninsula.

    Rain for south

    This is expected to happen from October 15, which is the median date for the onset of the North-East monsoon, or the monsoon in reverse, over Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Karnataka and parts of Andhra Pradesh.

    This is also why October-November is known to be most prone to the birth of tropical cyclones in the surrounding seas.

    In fact, India Met projections indicate that just as the depression turns away from the West Coast, easterlies in the making conjuring up a circulation over Sri Lanka.

    This could bring in heavy showers to Sri Lanka, and southern Tamil Nadu and adjoining south Kerala in what could be a pilot of the North-East monsoon.

    Report courtesy. The Hindu Business Line.

  2. Rain in evening or night will continue in chennai till OCt 11th, after dry of 3 days, NEM will start to pour in chennai on OCt 15th.

  3. Low pressure area is now in central of Arabian Sea not near the west coast. and also low in bay moved to inland quickly. why its happening quicker than predicted?

    • We are going to Enjoy this October…. Bumper is awaiting in November… i will post November Forecast on or after 15th.

      This OCT minimum 300mm guaranteed…

      As told in September 1st Week, onset will happen between 12th and 17th

  4. Good morning all, awesome dramatc evening it was. Swirling winds, deafening thunders and high voltage flashes, photo frames falling off the wall of our open verandah wall, sheets of water coming from all directions, of course no power, scorpions dancing in the water…. our rg recorded 34mm while, the nearest ellapuram says 46mm. Drizzles still on since early morning

  5. Anvil and Cumulonimbus over east and Strato Cumulus over north and NW. South Is clear with some high level cirrus clouds

  6. தமிழகம் மற்றும் புதுச்சோியிீல் அடுத்த 48 மணி நேரத்திற்கு இடியுடன் கூடிய மழை நீடிக்கும்.
    வானிலை ஆய்வு மையம் தகவல்.

    Thundershowers to continue for next 48 hours in Tamilnadu and Puducherry.
    Says Meterological Dept

  7. Rsrao….

    We are going to Enjoy this October…. Bumper is awaiting in November… i will post November Forecast on or after 15th.
    This OCT minimum 300mm guaranteed…
    As told in September 1st Week, onset will happen between 12th and 17th

  8. OMG what a rains in Kanykumari. My native place Thiruvattur 198 mm. My house is just few kms from there.

  9. Bloggers, if ur predicting something ,please wait till tat event surfaces to see the result. let that be pros or cons,share that openly.. so that it will help others in learning as wll. I see people saying something in sep and different one in oct & saying its happening.. success and failure shld b treated equally.

    • Well said, success and failure should be treated equally, at the end no one can maintain 100% success ratio with nature

    • Completely agree with you. We are not suppose to prove ourselves with
      false projected/guesstimated forecast . Everyone knows NEM will start
      during October 2nd/3rd week. This is not claimed as achievement.

      • With due respect to you and your forecast, GFS and all models are revising their forecast every 3 days and you know predicting onset date is not easy and possible before one month. Even IMD has failed in SW Monsoon onset date.

        IMD has predicted ( previous years) only window for onset date rather than exact date for NEM.

      • the point is the same as you mentioned, it is tough to predict the date and time frame, but when someone taking this risk and doing the prediction by narrowing down the longer period of NEM onset, then the due credit to be given to them, hence you cannot say that no one can take credit.

        many of us said that between 13th and 16th NEM onset can happen, then the credit goes to those bloggers.

      • Partha, at the same time many of us predicted NEM onset before October 2nd week itself. They might have predicted by keeping elnino in mind.

    • Another alternative, success & failures can be ignored for ever here. Due to unpredictable dynamic of weather

  10. Depression in Arabian Sea, Kanyakumari district very very heavy rains ending 8.30 am on 09.10.2015. Its just massive.
    ======================

    in mm

    Thiruvattar – 199
    Upper Kodayar – 190
    Killiyoor – 157
    Lower Kodayar – 147
    Rajakkamangalam – 113
    Thackalai – 110
    Thovala – 108
    Kulasekharam – 106
    Munchirai – 77
    Neyoor – 74
    Nagercoil – 74
    Kurunthancode – 72
    Agastiswaram – 39
    Kanyakumari – 36

    • In kk dist people don’t find rain as exciting as we do in chennai untill it gets real big. It will rain atleast a day in every week throught the year.

      • Clouds & sun shine we have. Western people flying down to tropics for getting enough sunshine due to lack of vitamin D

      • Tan or brown is beautiful than wheetish or pale whitish
        Beuty pageant across the world are little pale or brown.
        Sub continent is a gifted place

      • Nothing wrong in going a bit off topic… Keep scrolling down .. We discuss cricket topics and I should see the same response from you then.

      • True.. I enquire my relatives there about rain whenever I see news.. But on the contrary their reply is just normal rains..nothing to fuss about…maybe it has something to do about easy drainage of rain water there, compared to our city which gets waterlogged for overnight rains..

      • yes the terrain makes the water to drain fast. but in 2010 December i remember it was my marriage. the Whole town came to watch the water in Kuzhithura River.

      • Good place to live if one find city life stressful.. Lush green canopy with frequent rain and many tourist spots nearby.

  11. Imd Chennai predicts heavy rainfall will start lashing interiors of T.N , from 12th, After 3 days heavy rains guaranteed for T.N

  12. Is heavy rain predicted for theni and munnar due to system in arabain sea? I’m planning to travel to munnar..is heaavy rains on cards in the ghat sections? Kindly someone clarify

  13. The possibility of a normal monsoon is high next year though its onset might be delayed because of the tail
    end of El Nino.
    Amid reports from forecasters about thepossibility of El Nino continuing during the first few months of 2016, experts
    from the India Meteorological Department ( IMD) found in a recent report that it might remain effective in January and February 2016. But it could start weakening in March, April or May next year.
    Against this backdrop, El Nino is unlikely to affect the monsoon of 2016. At the most, it might only delay the onset of the
    rainy season, the experts claimed. They added that the monsoon rainfall is usually normal or above normal following strong El Nino years.
    The report stated that the probability of strong El Nino conditions was 100% from September this year to
    January 2016.
    source: t.o.i

  14. Have you ever wondered how come insects(dragonfly),birds and ants know more about weather/disasters than us without all these technologies and communication. Even models and blogger prediction goes wrong but these creatures have a certain ability to grasp it.. Like ants actively collecting food before rain.

    Maybe primitive human had that ability which is lost when we happened to have a safe life( house) and not worry about the weather like animals do. Evolution creates advancement to a living thing, but also lost some ability which became obsolete.

  15. Rainfall Update

    Lower kothaiyar arg (Kanyakumari Dist)

    14

    Pechiparai (Kanyakumari Dist)

    13

    Thuckalay (Kanyakumari Dist)

    12

    Mylaudy (Kanyakumari Dist), Bhoothapandy (Kanyakumari Dist)

    11 each

    Kuzhithurai (Kanyakumari Dist)

    9

  16. IMD nungambakkam always struggling to post good quantity of rainfall. it is a real pity. in fact places very close to Nungambakkam received such a good rainfall, iMD has recorded hardly 5 Millimeters of rain fall. this is a real irony.

    ss

    • For GOD sake first LPA in BOB must not form. If it forms then GOD also can not stop it to intensify beyond D/DD😆😆👍

      • We had seen so many times this year in BOB how the pulses intensified rapidly. Komen is still unforgettable system as no model unable to foresee its rapid intensification. Models are struggling by “elnino-reds” unlike “lanina-blues”.

  17. Why is everyone losing patience including the experts?
    Remember normal NEM onset date is Oct 15 +/- 5 days. So the normal window is 10th Oct to 20th Oct. Why is everyone worried?

  18. AS per GFS latest Run, easterlies will start by Oct 14 with some light rains ,but bumper rains from Oct 24

  19. Arb sea system is getting jammed between two lower level ridges.. its is not likely to show any big movement till oct 12th. and another weak circulation shown on 12th oct over north bay. it may b the same 92B again moving into bay waters or new circulation getting induced from a two different flows..

  20. HPA starts to form to over North side of NE states, this is pushing the axis below, hence the steering wind pattern changing to NE by tomorrow over Myanmar and Bangla, this is producing a trough of LOW over NE Bay. The extension happens from 11th onwards towards SW Bay. Hence a trough of LOW to shift towards NTN and SAP coast by 12th.

  21. Oct rains so far excess list.. frm departure actual mean

    Kerala 74. 6
    Coastal ktk 70. 1
    Konkan goa 56.4
    Si ktk 51.9
    Rayalssema 45.7
    Tn pdy 40.5
    Mp 32.9

  22. Sel
    My quota/ home work I’ve already submitted
    1.First one to predict bullseye onset date 18 Oct
    2.A named system guaranteed around late Nov/early Dec
    3.Nem summary my view approx 125cm for chennai

    Note : this is my view…assume this as I’ve finished homework…pass or fail doesn’t matter I’m enjoying

  23. Andha Puliya naa paathe theeruven…booked Sunday show..
    C’mon Tiger..C’mon Tiger..C’mon Tiger !!!

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