Low Pressure Area in north bay

The cyclonic circulation over north bay has intensified to a Low Pressure area and is expected to intensify further under favorable conditions. Due to this rains are expected over parts of coastal Orissa and West Bengal along with some parts of north eastern states. Meanwhile, there is another cyclonic feature circulating offshore west coast in the south east and adjoining east central Arabian Sea. This would produce rains along parts of Kerala, coastal Karnataka and Goa during the next 24 hours. Thunderstorms likely to continue across parts of north TN, south AP and south interior Karnataka due to the favorable horizontal shear flow patterns.

ezindia1_day2sector-irc

Chennai’s day will open up with white puffy clouds held on a backdrop of deep blue skies. Temperature will settle close to 34-35 C, with a possible Thunderstorm towards evening/night.

Madurai will see maximum temperature settling close to 33 – 34 C, with a fair chance of rains.

Coimbatore will stay warm at 33 C.

Vellore will stay a bit comfortable with a day time high of 34 C. Thunderstorms can occur post noon.

Trichy will stay warm at 34 – 35 C. Rains may occur in some places.

1,262 thoughts on “Low Pressure Area in north bay

  1. Strong easterly wave going to hit TN by mid-October to trigger NEM onset. Need to see whether this one will further develop to a strong system or not.

  2. Good spell here yesterday eveng & today midnight.. Drizzles were till 5.30 .. Eveng spell was a terrific one that high road got flooded after that sep 10th rains..

  3. Good morning
    Good rains here yesterday
    evening spell my rg recorded 17mm
    Early morning spell 2mm
    Total this October 41mm

  4. Today pondy to Chidambaram stretch will see a heavy rain towards evening …
    Chennai had a very good chances of ts today too..

  5. Good morning friends. October has really proved our June of rest of india by offereing break from heat and providing chillness. Hope it continues for another three months and give us memorable year for us to cherish forever. It will happen if we have strong belief and wish.

  6. Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert WTIO21
    Issued at 07/2200Z

    FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
    070 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.8N 71.7E TO 14.9N 71.2E
    WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
    ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
    WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 27 TO 32 KNOTS. METSAT
    IMAGERY AT 071800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
    NEAR 12.9N 71.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD AT 02 KNOTS.
    2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.7N
    71.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 71.7E, APPROXIMATELY 365 NM SOUTH OF
    MUMBAI, INDIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP
    CONVECTION PERSISTING OVER AN INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL
    CIRCULATION CENTER. RECENT ASCAT DATA INDICATE 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS
    SURROUNDING THE CENTER. THIS DISTURBANCE LIES EQUATORWARD OF AN
    UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS, IN AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE VERTICAL
    WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE WESTWARD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS
    INDICATE CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW
    DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 27 TO 32
    KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB.
    BASED ON AN IMPROVING LOW LEVEL SIGNATURE AND CONDUCIVE UPPER-LEVEL
    CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
    TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.

  7. Trichy reached normal.. Many stations nearing normal..
    Rocking October
    Trichy – 142 mm
    Cuddalore -101 mm
    Adirampattinam -117 mm
    Tiruttanni – 121 mm
    Nagapattinam – 74 mm
    Vellore -73 mm…

  8. OCTOBER
    1/10/15 – 1mm
    2/10/15 – 4mm
    3/10/15 – 32mm
    4/10/15 – 11mm
    7/10/15 – 31mm

    79mm since oct 1 till today

  9. 37mm recorded in my Bottle RG from the two spells yesterday. From October 1st..till date 12.6mm. 34mm. , 37mm…on 3 seperate days.

  10. My Area Crossed 600 mm For The Year !!!

    Note : My Area Attained Normal SWM Status

    July – 1 (2 mm)
    July – 9 (6 mm)
    July – 10 (31 mm)
    July – 17 (21 mm)
    July – 18 (19 mm)
    July – 19 (21 mm)
    July – 22 (33 mm)
    July – 25 ( 4 mm)
    July – 26 (37 mm)
    July – 27 (29 mm)
    ————————————————————————————————————————————————
    Aug – 01 (17 mm)
    Aug – 02 (4 mm)
    Aug – 04 (48 mm)
    Aug – 05 (15 mm)
    Aug – 21 (34 mm)
    Aug – 30 (19 mm)
    ———————————————————————————————————————————————-
    Sep – 10 (71 mm)
    Sep – 17 (4 mm )
    Sep – 19 (6 mm )
    Sep – 20 (62 mm)
    ———————————————————————————————————————————————
    Oct – 2 (37 mm)
    Oct – 7 (33 mm)
    ———————————————————————————————————————————————–
    Wettest Day Of The Year !!! – September – 10 (71 mm)
    Wettest Day Of SWM – 2015 – September – 10 (71 mm)
    Wettest Day Of NEM – 2015 – October – 2 (37 mm)
    <100 mm Days –
    ————————————————————————————————————————————————
    Yearly Rainfall

    Jan – 2 mm
    Feb – 0 mm
    Mar – 0 mm
    Apr – 69 mm
    May – 9 mm
    June – 34 mm
    July – 203 mm
    Aug – 137 mm
    Sep – 143 mm
    Oct – 70 mm
    ————————————————————————————————————————————————-
    Pre – Monsoon (Jan – May) – 80 mm
    SWM (Jun – Sep ) – 517 mm
    NEM (Oct – Dec ) – 70 mm
    ————————————————————————————————————————————————-
    Total – 667 mm

  11. 22mm in Ambattur ending 8.30am today. 1km north of Ambattur had very good rains in evening it could be 40mm over there including puzhal, redhills and cholavaram

  12. Fantastic rains here yesterday
    First spell 7.00to7.45(light rains)-3mm
    9.45to10.20pm(heavy rains)-10mm
    11.00pmto12.00am(monster rains)29mm!!
    Totaly -42mm yesterday
    Totally in oct-70.8+42=112.8mm😁😁😁😁

  13. Twin LOW to become a WML in next 24 hours.

    The LOW over Bay likely to become WML by today or tomorrow. This LOW likely to cross Myanmar and Adjoining Bangladesh coast by tomorrow and weaken further.

    The LOW formed over SE Arabian Sea to intensify into a WML in next 24 hours time and stay in place during subsequent 48 hours time. This is likely to bring widespread heavy rainfall along Konkan and Goa, Coastal Karnataka and Northern parts of Kerala. Once the WML intensifies into a D or DD by 11th, it should start moving in WNW direction, rainfall will gradually reduce in Konkan and Goa, Coastal KTK and Kerala from 11th onwards.

  14. y’day Sel mentioned heavy rain chances for Chennai, in morning it self, congrats to him, IMD Chennai also spot on about heavy rain for Chennai, today also they mention this, hope we get another treat

  15. As expected chembarambakkam inflow is 525 cusecs with 4cm rains, whereas only 76 cusecs inflow into poondi with 5cm….

  16. Widespread Rainfall in and around Chennai Region ending 8.30 am on 08.10.2015
    ==============================
    Chembarabakkam Lake records inflow of 525 cusecs.

    in mm

    Poonamalle Agro – 43
    Poondi Lake – 46
    Ambattur Agro – 42
    Chembarabakkam Lake – 40
    Poonamalle – 37
    Kolapakkam – 31
    Nemili – 29
    Tamaraipakkam – 29
    Tharamani – 24
    Anna University – 23
    Katupakkam – 21
    Madhavaram – 20
    Puzhal – 19
    Avadi – 19
    Chennai AP – 17
    St.Thomas Mount (Near Chrompet) – 16
    Redhills Lake – 15
    Cholavaram Lake – 14
    Hindustan University – 13
    Chennai – 8
    Ennore – 7

  17. Always IMD nungambakkam lagging far behind in rainfall figures compared to other parts of city. Even kodambakkam hardly one km aerial distance recorded nearly 3 centimeters and IMD has just recorded 8 Milli meters. I think this could be incorrect or the weather office should come up with taking a few places in and around, get the average to record rainfall in city.

    IMD nungambakkam always a pitiable case as far as rainfall is concerned. i am tracking this for years and only a healthy system in bay records rain in nungambakkam.

    ss

  18. Rainfall around Tirupati

    SVU agri – 76 mm
    st gobain karakambaadi – 59 mm
    Tirupati Agro – 54 mm
    Thondameedu Tirupati – 46 mm

  19. Yesterday’s toppers of our South India in various categories

    Max 24 hour rainfall yesterday

    kolthige karnataka – 204 mm

    Minimum Temperature in plains

    Nyakal Telangana – 14.6 degrees
    kamtha Bidar karnataka – 14.6 degrees

      • I am following for the past few days, first it was said to be moving North and then WNW and now West, it should happen, as i have saw an update on 850 hpa vector wind anomaly, the westerly wind anomaly was associated over West Pacific and Adjoining South China Sea since ELNINO emerged, now it has moved towards date line, hence normal wind anomaly over south china sea is expected, hence this movement of storm is possible, more remnants expected this time during NEM season, crossing from South China Sea to Bay is possible.

  20. Oct 1- 3 mm
    Oct 2- 58mm
    Oct 4- 9mm
    Oct 5- 4mm
    Oct 6- 2mm
    Oct 7- 44 mm
    Total – 120 mm so far

    Great start for october..

  21. Remember Guys,

    Frequent Pulse crossing from South China Sea to Bay is possible this NEM season.

    As the latest update shows on 850 hpa vector wind anomaly, the westerly wind anomaly was associated over West Pacific and Adjoining South China Sea since ELNINO emerged, now this westerly wind anomaly has moved towards date line, hence normal wind anomaly over south china sea is expected, that is from NE to SW direction, hence the upcoming storm in West Pacific will move in WSW direction after reaching South China Sea and reemerge in Bay is possible. Also more remnants expected this time during NEM season, crossing from South China Sea to Bay is possible.

  22. Rami Rao prediction is risky. If a cyclone come from central Bay it may miss us too. Do we really need that. There is beautiful EQW moving in from 16th October and reaching us on 18th. It may maximum turn in LPA if conditions are good.

  23. Remember Guys,

    Frequent Pulse crossing from South China Sea to Bay is possible this NEM season.

    As the latest update shows on 850 hpa vector wind anomaly, the westerly wind anomaly was associated over West Pacific and Adjoining South China Sea since ELNINO emerged, now this westerly wind anomaly has moved towards date line, hence normal wind anomaly over south china sea is expected, that is from NE to SW direction, hence the upcoming storm in West Pacific will move in WSW direction after reaching South China Sea and reemerge in Bay is possible. Also more remnants expected this time during NEM season, crossing from South China Sea to Bay is possible..

  24. The trend of October after onset of NEM.
    Frequent visit of Low Pressure over SW Bay is likely.

    Since the westerly trade winds in WP has moved to date line, at least 3 to 4 Low’s expected to visit Bay of Bengal, especially over SW Bay and GOM. The trend likely to be 2 days rain, 2 days sunshine, again 2 days rain, 2 days sunshine. This is the trend we are going to have this October.

  25. Thiruvalangadu (Tiruvallur Dist)

    12

    Gingee (Villupuram Dist)

    10

    Arakonam (Vellore Dist)

    7

    Kodavasal (Tiruvarur Dist)

    6

    Sriperumbudur (Kancheepuram Dist), Tambaram (Kancheepuram Dist), Kaveripakkam (Vellore Dist), Poonamalle arg (Tiruvallur Dist), Poondi (Tiruvallur Dist)

    5 each

  26. AO turning negative since yesterday. During onset of NEM it is going to peak in Negative Phase, this is very good news for NEM lovers. More Low’s will be forming in mid latitudes, this bring more convective phase in South Bay.

  27. The low pressure area over eastcentral & adjoining southeast Arabian Sea has become well marked low
    pressure area over the same region. Associated upper air cyclonic circulation extends upto midΒ­tropospheric
    levels. The system would move nearly northwards and concentrate into a depression during next 24 hours.

    • PJ, this is happening again and again. Models are underestimating intensity initially. But reality always different. Komen is perfect example for this. May be due to elnino models might be facing tough problem.

Please restrict Comments to Weather only

Please log in using one of these methods to post your comment:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s