LPA to bring heavy rains to west coast

An Upper Air Cyclonic circulation (UAC) over southeast arabian sea persists resulting an LPA formation in next 12 hours. This disturbance is expected to intensify slowly in coming days and West coast could see a sharp increase in rainfall, particularly along Karnataka and North Kerala coast. Meanwhile SWM has further withdrawn from entire North India except parts of Jharkhand. It is expected to withdraw further as central India gets occupied with dry northerly winds associated with an anticyclone over Northwest India.
East-West Shear line seen along 14N. Convective Rainfall likely to continue over isolated parts of TN particularly along Northern districts of the state. Thundershowers may occur in one or two parts of the state.

ezindia1_day2

Chennai: lookout for a clear blue skies with scattered low clouds. Temp likely to stay around 34-35C with showers expected in one or two parts of the city.

Madurai: City would see a humid day with temp reaching 34C. Rains may occur in one or two places.

Trichy: Not a great day on cards, thermometer may soar to 35C.

Vellore: Good chance of Thundershowers around the city with max temp stick to 32C.

Coimbatore: Partly cloudy day expected with max temp nearing 30C

1,764 thoughts on “LPA to bring heavy rains to west coast

      • Both are likely to act in its own way. The AS system is infact expected to remain isolated all thru. The Bob system will keep sw monsoon flows intact till it decays.

  1. Another Good day for NET😛
    Crystal Blue sky with Towering Clouds expected around. Yesterday it was very good but the winds are not too supportive and its steering winds are poor anyhow parts of western and northern suburbs of Chennai had Rains.

  2. Very to heavy rain possible for Orissa and some parts of north eastern states . Massive number expected there for another three day .. LPA over Arabian sea will strengthen and produce more rain for Kerala and some parts of west coast … Another good day for Chennai to receive a heavy spell between afternoon and evening …. May be today is the Chennai day 🎊

  3. The upper air cyclonic circulation over eastcentral Bay of Bengal & neighbourhood
    extending upto 3.6 km above mean Sea levels persists. Under its influence, a low Pressure area may form over eastcentral Bay of Bengal & neighbourhood during next 48
    hours.

  4. Good Morning..!!! Pure Crystal Blue Skies Today! I Hopes Some TS Forms… Tough For Chennai To Get Any Meaningful Rain From Arabian LPA Is Bleak! Lets See Can We Get Something From Interior TS. Warm Day Is Expected With Temperature Near 33-35c. NEM onset in the Near Future Looks Uncertain.

  5. Good morning…The upper air cyclonic circulation over eastcentral bay of bengal & neighbourhood extending upto 3.6 km above mean sea levels persists; under its influence, a low pressure area may form over eastcentral bay of bengal & neighbourhood during next 24 hours .
    An another upper air cyclonic circulation over southeast & adjoining eastcentral arabian sea extending upto mid-tropospheric levels persists under its influence, a low pressure area may form over eastcentral and adjoining southeast arabian sea during next 24 hours.The east-west shear zone roughly along latitude 14.0N between
    3.1 & 4.5 km above mean sea level persists .

    Due to upcoming two low pressure areas in bay of bengal and arabian sea , many parts of north Interior Tamilnadu districts may have heavy rain for 2 or 3 days.Chennai may have some medium spells for 3 days.

  6. Places in and around chennai,vellore,tiruvannamalai,tiruvallur,kanchipuram,ariyalur likely to see the action.
    Madnapalle & gadanki surrounding might see a huge storm

  7. Heavy rain with lightning and small hail smashed Tucson today.Weather is very pleasant here around 16 deg celsius. Hope Chennai gets smashed soon too!

  8. friends, as nem is nearing, i request all, to avoid negative comments about rain, for T.N/ Chennai, if it is based on parameters, and models it’s ok, if it’s for just for sake of posting, pl avoid negative comments about rains

  9. can we start any green drive behalf of KEA…?any ideas….my plan is to make all roads like TTK road trees either side

  10. Good Morning, It was;

    Today morning, when i was coming to office, near to my street end, a father was accompanying his two school going daughters were standing at the school van pick up point, that father was teaching them what is IMD and what is a forecast. They read forecast in the news paper that IMD said today the city will remain “Warm and Humid”, he was explaining what it is exactly meant. He said the meaning for warm, but when saying about Humidity he was struggling, then i entered and said about what Humidity, then he asked me about myself and i said about myself and asked him to join KEA Weather, to know more about weather fronts.

    I am so happy to see that at least few people are there to talk about weather, other than the professionals and bloggers.

    • this is exactly what we want…it is a pity an average guy in western countries has more knoweledge in local weather than our Indians..

  11. PAC Shows places like Thachur, Arani (TVL Dist), Gummidipoondi & Siruvapuri which is north of Cholavaram got nearly 60 – 70mm

  12. Looks like monsoon has withdrawn further down in latitude covering entire maha,madhya pradesh but holding its position twrds east india (odisha,wb)and Northern bay..Need to see whether these conditions remains consistent or change..

  13. Huge high pressure expected to dominate the south peninsula . If it persists it will be a terrible October for tn
    -Vinodna

  14. Seems southwest monsoon vanished in kurnool too..clears skies in kurnool hyd streach…
    But NEM will give some rains to kurnool…

  15. Ha..ha..USA’s South Carolina state gets damaged very badly due to recent heaviest rains of 20-23 inches in the span of 2-3 days that caused by hurricane Jaoquin. Huge property loss along with 16 people died. This is the situation in a developed country. So we can easily imagine how the situation will be in developing countries with similar heavy rain events.

      • Just we are after all human beings (part of live stock in this universe/nature). Without us universe can exit but not vice versa. So universe/nature first than us. So please give atmost respect to our big boss “nature”👍👍👍

  16. Very bad condition for the LPA in Arabian Sea. But arabian sea is a different thing for models to predict lets see.

  17. I am saying this from the beginning the system in both basins are not going to strengthen as the strong dry air pushing from north arabian sea not going to feed moisture to the system, also for bay system it will move north and north east and will dissipate by 09th.

    From 11th onwards the dry air will occupy NE states. By the same time the SWM withdrawal would have reached North AP by 10th or 11th. Max by 12th or 13th the SWM withdrawal will happen from entire country.

    • spot on arabian sea system massive dry air and supply is cutt off.
      For Bob system, there is nothing called dissipation. It looks like a rainfilled one.

  18. No one is going to dissipate except weaker in strength. First BOB will strengthen and then weaken & later Arabian will strengthen and weaken😆😆😆

  19. BoB system making landfall. Looks intense. I wont be surprised if it becomes Depression even for half day.


  20. Partha’s research article shared in KEA FB page has got 5250+ likes. I think this is the most liked article in KEA FB page. Congrats Partha ji🙂

  21. Easterly surge moving into bay on 14th october.. climatological mean date for onset of easterlies is actually 14th october

  22. IMD given Heavy rainfall forecast for TN from 11th. These rains should come from Easterly Winds for sure. Interiors are going to receive it first, then 3 days later NEM onset will be announced.

  23. Pity to see a great variation of yesterday’s rains in Tirupati area
    It always happens like this

    Have a look at this

    Tirupati urban – 60 mm
    Tirupati imd – 5.3 mm

      • Yeah…just saw those in dinakaran

        Actually it was raining daily there .especially in Tirumala Tirupati ghat section

        look at this

        I have SVU agri readings where the AWS is situated just beside the hill near Zoo

        From october 1 to yesterday total rain received is 196 mm which is far more than imd which is situated 15 km away from this

  24. Hyderabad temperatures coming down gradually…

    yesterday minimum temperatures ranged between 19 and 20 degrees

    pocharam sez – 19
    imd hyd 20 degrees

  25. Selvan,

    The initial stage of Arb Sea system might bring few showers to west coast, but later on the circulation pattern of that system creates doubt that from tomorrow it might not bring rainfall to west coast. What is your opinion?

  26. Cold wave conditions in North karnataka and Telangana

    yesterday’s minimum temperatures

    kohir Telangana – 14.3 degrees
    Bidar Karnataka – 14.4 degrees
    kalaburagi – 16.9 degrees

      • I think already swm lost its presence in Telangana and NKTK

        Temperatures dipping below 16 degrees in most parts of north telangana..

        Hope that Arabian syatem or BOB system dont increase the minimum temperatures by dumping unseasonal rains

  27. IMD Rainfall Update

    Alangudi (Pudukkottai Dist) and Chengalpattu (Kancheepuram Dist)
    7 each,
    Mayiladuthurai (Nagapattinam Dist), Arantangi (Pudukkottai Dist), Sattur (Virudhunagar Dist), Perambalur (Perambalur Dist) 6 each,
    Tirupathur (Sivaganga Dist), Tirumayam (Pudukkottai Dist), Marungapuri (Trichy Dist), Arimalam (Pudukkottai Dist), Tiruttani (Tiruvallur Dist), Ponneri (Tiruvallur Dist) 5 each,
    Tiruvarur (Tiruvarur Dist), Thirumanur (Ariyalur Dist), Thiruvidaimaruthur (Thanjavur Dist), Tiruchirappalli AP (Trichy Dist), Tiruvaiyaru (Thanjavur Dist), Papanasam (Thanjavur Dist), Tirukattupalli (Thanjavur Dist) 4 each,
    Grand anaicut (Thanjavur Dist), Pandavaiyar head (Tiruvarur Dist), Pudukottai (Pudukkottai Dist), Pallipattu (Tiruvallur Dist), Natham (Dindigul Dist), Venbavur (Perambalur Dist), Palani (Dindigul Dist), SenDamangalam (Namakkal Dist), Sholingur (Vellore Dist), Sirkali (Nagapattinam Dist), Kothagiri (Nilgiris Dist), Paramakudi (Ramanathapuram Dist), Sankaridurg (Salem Dist), Mannargudi (Tiruvarur Dist), Upper anaicut (Trichy Dist) 3 each,

  28. Easterlies setting around 11th oct, and First easterly wave striking TN on oct 14 with spawning a Trough of low over SW Bay of Bengal

  29. whether any chance for this year Low, Depression and cyclones to skip TN especially Chennai like previous year ?

  30. models are changing …yesterday they never had the easterlies by 13th and 14th but now they are …infact 15th it is strengthening…ARB system also wil not develop fully into a big system i guess

    • I told yest itself to wait for 3 more days bfore we can get a clear picture.. see now models started showing some positivity

  31. Rains reduced in Karnataka …..Yesterday’s rainfall topper

    Brahmasamudra Madhugiri Taluk ( Tumakuru District ) – 114 mm

  32. JTWC on the AS low

    AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 13.6N 71.8E,
    APPROXIMATELY 325 NM NORTHWEST OF COCHIN. MSI AND THE 070304Z SSMIS
    DEPICT A BROAD ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH FLARING CONVECTION LOCATED
    ON THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT
    IS FAVORABLE WITH VERY LOW VWS (05-10 KNOTS) AND MARGINAL
    EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS STRUGGLE TO DEVELOP THE SYSTEM
    WITHIN THE NEXT 72 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
    ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
    TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
    SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW DUE TO
    THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE SYSTEM AND THE BROAD ELONGATED
    CIRCULATION.

  33. Guys,
    We ll get our clear picture of Easterlies once that bob system landfall in Bangladesh…
    Now no models ll show strength of Easterlies when system around the corner..
    This I saw in both hudhud and phailin cases, when cyclone in sea most model didn’t show furthur Easterlies but once system crossed they ll show massive easterly wave.. Wait for just 2-3 days to get perfect easterly wave picture….

Please restrict Comments to Weather only

Please log in using one of these methods to post your comment:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s