Low pressure Area likely to develop in Southeast Arabian sea

A weak disturbance has formed over Lakshadweep and its adjoining areas which is likely to develop into a low pressure area in the next 48 hours. Computer models are showing better organization of this system by the end of this week as it tracks towards north where it will encounter favourable upper atmospheric conditions for development. This system will bring heavy rainfall for coastal Kerala in the next few days. There is also another weak tropical feature to develop in the north bay and it would bring some thunderstorms to the coastal parts of West Bengal from Wednesday. Thunderstorm activity is expected to continue over most parts of TN in response to the developing system over Lakshadweep.

BBC

Chennai: City will see max temperature around 33C. Thunderstorms are likely to occur in the afternoon/evening.
Madurai: City to witness max temperature close to 34C.There is a good chance of evening thunderstorms.
Coimbatore: Max temperature are expected to be around 30C.Sky will remain cloudy with a chance of light showers.
Vellore: City will be pleasant with max temperature reaching 32C.Thunderstorms are likely to form in the evening.
Trichy: Thunderstorms are likely to occur in evening time with temperature moving close to 36C.

1,198 thoughts on “Low pressure Area likely to develop in Southeast Arabian sea

  1. Gud morning blogerrs today also i think only scaterrd thunderstroms possible and lets hope for widespread Ts for chennai yedterday my area recived 2mm .hope it gets more today😉

  2. Good Morning Bloggers!!!! Today Expected To Be Bit Hot and Thanks Lot KEA Sir For Changing The Picture in The Main Topic.Bit Cooler Morning today.Easterlies Likely From 12th and 13th. As Per Models and Experts.
    Hoping For Onset Soon.

    • Looks like those storms in fact missed Trichy AP. It would have entered into Thanjavur suburbs like Budalur, Tirukkattupalli, Grand Anaicut.

  3. Good morning… today morning Was a cool one. So cool that I woke up in the middle of the night to cover myself with a thin blanket

  4. Good Morning All,

    PFS will be out today for NEM 2015.
    Morning’s are chill nowadays. Today morning my skin became dry, I could feel the comfortness.
    Power was off for 10 minutes today morning, but did not sweat. Also strong breeze blowing on, that is difference today.

  5. Wat a Cool Morning and Pleasant start to the day. Yesterday night was so misty but today morning visibility is so good with the crystal clear sky. Hills visibility Is pretty good and the ranges from Tiruttani to Tada (50km ranges) clearly visible from Ambattur.
    Enjoyed nearly 30 – 40mins In Motta maadi ( Terrace) wat a beauty🙂
    Nature at its best. Have taken few pics of beautiful sky and the hills over NW will post later

  6. Gokul,

    I could see blue water in Sholinga Lake today. I have not seen this before. It was usually light grayish or colourless.
    It is due to clear sky without any cloud disturbances.

  7. Just one small request. The experts here please conduct a session through this page for new weather bloggers as to how to track north east monsoon, the terms involved with their meaning, how to track depressions, deep depressions and cyclones etc. This session would be useful for even me who want to take weather blogging as a free time work.

  8. ER wave is the possible trigger agent for this two systems and arb sea system would get support majorily from ElNINO conditions.. Bay system still remains a threat to develop into a minimal cyclone but conditions r not expected to b good as tat for arb sea system. As of now bay system taking a lead with good increase in vorticity but shear expected to hinder any rapid development..arb sea system hav good atmospheric conditions but biggest threat would b from DRY AIR in coming days!!

  9. GEM still differing from other models!! developing bay system to good extent and arb sea system to skid along west coast and make landfall!

  10. NET Update :p

    Very early orographical lifting taking place near tada and nagalapuram. Huge Cumulus Congestus towering up steadily over distant NW.
    Good chance of Early TS Popups over NW

  11. Hi all good morning
    Those two systems are pre NEM systems, so they’ll trigger easterlies within no time after landfall or dissipation!🙂

  12. Hope these two systems get done and dusted just in time to clear the turf for onset of NEM 2015 at least by end of 3rd week.

  13. If the Bay continue to be active like this due to el nino or whatever it is……..then we can reep bumper crop of NEM for sure

  14. Bad September, bad October we can keep on add another 10 months now, The past history says it rains only 10 days in October and that gives anything between 250mm to 300mm

  15. This is the climatology of october systems in arabian sea.. Available records shows not even one system crossed karnataka,konkan coast ..its either w-nw track twrds middle east or north-northeasterlytrack twrds gujarat/pakistan..

  16. First wet-season rains over Australia’s Top End
    – Widespread rainfall over northern half of Northern Territory and Queensland
    – Increasing humidity and rainfall indicative of a transition to wet-season-like weather pattern

    Pacific Ocean continues to be a focus for tropical cyclone activity
    – Significant tropical cyclone activity persists across the Pacific Ocean despite weak Madden–Julian Oscillation
    – Widespread damage in southern China and Philippines due to impacts from typhoon Mujigae

    Positive Indian Ocean Dipole and El Niño in Pacific Ocean
    – El Niño continues to dominate the Pacific Ocean, while a positive phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) has developed in recent weeks
    – The combination of El Niño and a positive IOD typically leads to drier-than-average conditions across much of northern Australia

  17. This forecast seems that system in arabian sea will not impact west coast much

    06 October (Day 1): Heavy rainfall would occur at isolated ♦ places over Andaman & Nicobar Islands, Coastal
    Karnataka, South Interior Karnataka, Tamilnadu & Pudducherry, Kerala and Lakshadweep.
    07 October (Day 2): ♦ Heavy rainfall would occur at isolated places over Coastal Karnataka, South Interior
    Karnataka, Kerala and Lakshadweep.
    08 October (Day 3): ♦No Weather Warning.
    09 October (Day 4):♦ No Weather Warning.
    10 October (Day 5):♦ No Weather Warning.

  18. GTS,

    I started to download it in the first week of September, but that itself was difficult from office, then started compiling in the past 4 working days, at one point of time i decided to stop it and did want to give forecast at all. No time available. We had half yearly closing on 01st October to yesterday, that was horrible time. Some how i managed and got some time yesterday and completed it at once, but some updated like SAT and SST averages of September were released today only, otherwise i would have given NEM forecast yesterday itself.

  19. cyclone PHAILIN’s total amount of rainfall estimated thru merge of TRMM and imd raingauge.. nearly 80 to 90cm got dumped in open waters of east central bay of bengal!!

  20. Sai, i have downloaded pj sir’s videos of hudhud in HD . Pls give me your wap number I’ll send you those

  21. Sankaridurg (Salem Dist) 9cm

    Polur (Tiruvannamalai Dist), Alangayam (Vellore Dist) 8cm

    Tozhudur (Cuddalore Dist) 7cm

    Yercaud (Salem Dist), Tiruvarur (Tiruvarur Dist), Gobichettipalayam (Erode Dist) 6cm

    Samayapuram (Trichy Dist), Nannilam (Tiruvarur Dist), Thalavadi (Erode Dist), Devala (Nilgiris Dist), Thammampatty (Salem Dist), Barur (Krishnagiri Dist), Erode (Erode Dist), Pattukottai 5cm

    Source

    http://www.imdchennai.gov.in/rf_daily.htm

  22. Storms expected to be massive over S.AP/N.TN
    wat a towering looks huge with cumulonimbus and anvil over North

  23. Latest ecmwf , by October 12th , AS system not much impressive…Nem flow gets gradual stability over South China Sea. But ,still EEIO sees weak equatorial easterlies , which might not be that conducive for any significant synoptic feature in south bay due to lack of barotropic flow instability..

  24. I could see that Kelvin strengthening in Phase 3 after 20th October, this might strengthen Easterlies across EEIO, MJO to be followed in Phase 2 by 26th October and towards Phase 3 in next few days and strengthening in Phase 3 is very very important.

    • Clouds Looks huge in reality. Unfortunately can’t able to take good pics. Will post once I reach home if any development seen

  25. strange to see SWM getting active along west coast upto Mumbai in oct…also eastern india continue to enjoy heavy showers .. NEM should wait for its turn

  26. The CEW from South Indian Ocean to North Indian Ocean will get disconnected from 10th onwards. As the Easterly winds settling in South India Ocean from this date. So 10th is the date of intra seasonal change over.

  27. By 16th October, the AS system would dissipate over Oman coast, lower level ridges and high pressure belt begins to sit across 20 N latitude zone across . Easterlies are seen hete, but just as outflows from those low level highs in the near Sub tropics. Also, seems to be an equatorial wave activity moving westward across equatorial IO . Signs of equatorial westerlies looks bleak.

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