Rains to continue in Peninsular India

The east west shear zone runs roughly along 16 N extending between 3.1 and 5.8 km above sea level persists. At one end of the shear zone exists an Upper Air Circulation off Andhra/ Odisha Coast. Rains would continue across most parts of peninsular India. Heavy falls likely to occur over isolated places in Andhra, Karnataka, TN and Andaman & Nicobar Islands.

prec6

Chennai with on and off cloudy day, the maximum will settle close to 34-35 C. Rains are possible in parts of city.

Madurai will see temperature at 35 C with chance of rains later in the day.

Coimbatore a pleasant day on cards with temperature settling close to 30 C. Rains are expected at night.

Vellore is perfectly located to receive rains and day will stay comfortable at 32-34 C.

Trichy will stay at 34-35 C, with good chance of rains in the evening / night.

1,277 thoughts on “Rains to continue in Peninsular India

  1. Today forecast …..
    Moderate to heavy rain possible over North coastal Tamilnadu and interior Tamilnadu too . Nagai would get heavy rain today as well .
    Chennai would get heavy showers towards midnight. Pondy and Cuddalore too get heavy rain towards evening.

  2. Oct 05 2015 : The Times of India (Chennai)

    Monsoon to set in after Oct 20

    Surprise spells of rain and high mercury levels will continue to tease Chennai over the next two weeks, says the weatherman.

    After sporadic rain drenched Chennai last week, the weekend ended on a warm note with the maximum temperature touching 35.1°C, more than three degrees above normal. “The last week of September and the beginning of October is the transition phase when the south-west monsoo withdraws and the north east monsoon sets in,“ said B Thampi, deputy director general of the regional mete orological centre.

    He said the period is usu ally marked by erratic rai during the day . “Once th monsoon sets in, we will se more rainfall,“ he said. Th meteorological departmen said the monsoon was likel to set in after October 20 Chennai gets most of its an nual rainfall of 140cm during the north-east monsoon.

    According to data available with the meteorological department, October saw the highest temperature in 1920, when the mercury levels touched 39.4°C. The month, on an average, sees around 10 days of rain. After letting down the city for the two years, the monsoon brought 161.9mm of rain in October last -the highest the month has seen in seven years.

    http://epaperbeta.timesofindia.com/Article.aspx?eid=31807&articlexml=Monsoon-to-set-in-after-Oct-20-05102015002050

  3. The Economist explains

    Why India has had such a poor monsoon

    No one yet fully understands the link between the monsoon and El Niño, a warming of the waters in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. Over the past century, most climate scientists have argued that a strong El Niño is associated with a weak monsoon because, as the Pacific warms, the air rises and comes down again over the subcontinent, driven by prevailing wind patterns. This descending warmer air is associated with higher pressure, less moisture and a weaker monsoon. The current El Niño is the strongest since 1997 and 1998, according to Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology, and will be at its most powerful at the end of the year.

    http://www.economist.com/blogs/economist-explains/2015/10/economist-explains-0

    • and also recently dr.balaji rajagopalan came out with a new study how +0.5c increase over NINO 3.4 affect indian rainfall in a Region wise during elnino and same decrease over 3.4region during lanina significantly enhance rainfall in a week of time!!..

  4. Yesterday most parts of north tamilnadu, many parts of north and south chennai, few parts of central chennai got rains
    My area saidapet south chennai – 3 mm

  5. Georgetown North Chennai observations. Rained all days since oct started
    OCTOBER 2015
    1/10/15 – 1mm
    2/10/15 – 4mm
    3/10/15 – 32mm
    4/10/15 – 11mm

  6. I feel for Vela’s month of October. Its going to fail very badly as forecasted by all model. There is so much consensus on the below normal rains. Even our experts sel are negative.

    Only Vela and Ehsan expect something big.

  7. if balaji rajagopalan says then everyone believes. but same thing I used to say since beginning of this year (even last year too). In weather technical one can find my related comments of sub-variant elnino modoki vs elnino-regular. how BOB (west-pacfifc) & Arabian (east-pacific) switches corresponding convection based on nino 3.4 SST vs Nino 1+2 SST.

  8. IMD predicts October 20th onset of NEM. If then NEM clashes with dusherra. We need to keep a track of mjo whether positive or negative. I hope for a depression to hit our coast signalling monsoon onset. If positive mjo it can be a named cyclone. This time swm not on expected lines so nem will be good with elnino.

  9. Looks like asusual interiors get good Rains today and some parts of North Coastal TN and South coastal AP.
    Chennai may get Medium to Heavy Rains at few places

  10. I pulled the earlier important comment from weather technical regarding time-lags:
    This applies not only for global SST gradients but also global pressure-gradients🙂

    Earlier comment:
    Without knowing the cross section of our weather-cycles (Hadley-tropical, Ferrell-sub-tropical and polar cycle), we can never be “masters” in weather-dynamics. Please view 3D-cross section of our tropical Hadley cycle.

    So mostly during seasonal rains, our weather will be confined to our Hadley-cycles. any changes in weather-dynamics within our Hadley cycles are interlinked within short-time lags.

    Please don’t think that our earth (Hadley cycle) is so big, then there will be lot of time-lags. Please don’t forget that earth (Hadley cycle) is too big for us, but not for earth (Hadley cycle) itself🙂

    3D-cross section of our weather cycles:http://s15.postimg.org/4ydfk6zcb/3d_hadley_md_v3.jpg

  11. Tidbits on NEM late onset!
    1951 NEM onset happened in nov 1st week and withdrawn on 2nd of DEC with the season ended with a deficit of -31%.

  12. Ecmwf showing Arabian sea system moving closer to gujarat adj maharastra coast and disappears in sea itself..
    Mean while, they reduced the intensity of bangla system from depression to low category….

  13. ECMWF still shows Arabian Sea tropical threat late week; ensembles not as strong. CFS has Rossby wave; bears watching Jason.. Btw again rest of oct not vry impressive too.

    • Massive easterly pulse ll form and ll.give surprise like last October I hope..
      Even last year October models didn’t show that much strong

  14. To be honest, models never hinted upon any early NEM onset. Though, the experimental results of Tropmet fired up expectations. Most other models, where showing normal climatological patterns. Better we wait for things to unfold in its own ways.

  15. The below comment is 4 months old, which I made about Nino SST time lag of 3-7 days on weather dynamics. 4 months old comment: There will be time lag (expecting 3-7 days depend on the distance wrt to ENSO-effected area (area of walker-circulation) in Hadley cycle.

    As per my understanding Hadley cycle (other cycles) won’t start its dynamics freshly each and every day from 1. Entire weather is based on “anomalies”. Need to understand these anomalies also work in continuous form (without starting from 1 each day)

    For example:
    If we take Elnino-concept. Can a super elnino turn east-pacific SSTs very warmer relatively to west-pacific SSTs in (may be in future it may). I don’t think it has done in the past and may not in future too. So super-Elnino is the consequence of SST-anomalies. This means SEALED (leakages to Ferrell/polar via Ferrell) Hadley cycle (I don’t know when it started, might be millions of years ago when weather has formed) is changing its balance between Elnino and Lanina via walker circulation with only slight changes in SST-anomalies to effect the global-weather drastically.

    Note:
    Weather dynamics are continuous (unstoppable at any point). This 3-7 days time lag is for sub-variations (not for whole ENSO)

    NOAA SSTs: http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/contour/global_small.cf.gif
    NOAA SST anomalies: http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2015/anomnight.6.15.2015.gif

  16. How can you all rule out early onset of NEM?
    Still my forecast is alive. Even 15th is early onset only.

    I am saying from the beginning of this discussion that by second week of October we will see onset of NEM. I never expected NEM by first week. I still rely on that. I was not just assuming, i was going with some basic parameters. Still one should have confidence.

  17. Recent study on air -sea interaction during tropical system development shows that the atmosphere was found to be the most dominant factor than the oceanic factors In developing and maintaining the system.. Moisture flux, near surface air temperature were seen equally important as vws.

  18. Atlast a normal october in kurnool

    Oct 1 – 7.8 mm
    Oct 2 – 4.6 mm
    Oct 3 – 2.4 mm
    Oct 4 – 1.6 mm
    Oct 5 – 26.7 mm

  19. If the current Satellite image was in NEM day, heavy to heavy downpour for North coastal areas..what a huge cloud mass..

  20. Thinking abt 1951 NEM, Shocked after seeing the Sel comment. NEM for just 35 days😮
    Nenaichalae bayama irukku :p
    Hoping that 1951 Like conditions won’t be present in this year and the years to come

  21. widespread rains yesterday from coimbatore-chennai. so early to see this phenomenon. lets enjoy pre-NEM showers everyday till onset happens 3rd week. each drop counts.

  22. NEM 2015 Forecast Basis,

    September averages are out, collating it with other ELNINO and Positive IOD years.
    So far the status is the September replicating 1972, 1987, 1997 conditions so far.
    1997 is closer than other years.

    There is a huge difference and not related to 1951 or 63 or 82.

  23. IMD RF Update

    Uthiramerur (Kancheepuram Dist)

    10

    Kvk kattukuppam arg (Kancheepuram Dist)

    8

    Arani (Tiruvannamalai Dist), Arantangi (Pudukkottai Dist), Alangudi (Pudukkottai Dist), Vandavasi (Tiruvannamalai Dist)

    7 each

    Manamelkudi (Pudukkottai Dist), Valangaiman (Tiruvarur Dist), Marandahalli (Dharmapuri Dist), Cuddalore (Cuddalore Dist), JayamkonDam (Ariyalur Dist)

    5 each

    Adirampatnam (Thanjavur Dist), Vedaranyam (Nagapattinam Dist), Tiruttani (Tiruvallur Dist), Madukkur (Thanjavur Dist), Sholingur (Vellore Dist), Hogenekal (Dharmapuri Dist), Sendurai (Ariyalur Dist), Rayakottah (Krishnagiri Dist), Thiruthuraipoondi (Tiruvarur Dist), Manapparai (Trichy Dist), Cheyyar (Tiruvannamalai Dist)

    4 each

  24. All combination of factors seen conducive for the deep convection in south bay, and one major support is upper level divergence that is seen providing prefect ventilation aloft.

  25. Can we reach our normal 300 mm this October??
    But one line feeling me very happy. The line was
    ” NEM IS UNPREDICTABLE “

  26. வெப்பம் சலனம் காரணமாக தமிழகத்தில் மழை தொடரும் என்று வானிலை ஆய்வு மையம் அறிவித்துள்ளது. மேலும், வட கிழக்கு பருவ மழை வழக்கத்தை விட கூடுதலாக பெய்யும் என்று தெரிவிக்கப்பட்டுள்ளது.
    Ctsy: dinakaran.

  27. The UAC over West Central Bay extends its trough towards SE Arabian Sea from tomorrow. This will create a East-West shear zone at around 14N latitude near South Coastal Karnataka. This will trigger a LOW system over SE Arabian Sea in next 48 hours. That is going to become a named one in the coming days.

  28. West coastal will get active for next 3-4 days as the lpa skirting along the coast , until it turns to dd/cyc & moves away..so they will compensate the loss of regular swm rains here..

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