Countdown to NEM starts!

The Arrival of North East Monsoon (NEM) which is the lifeline for TN is being watched with utmost interest. SWM has extended its withdrawal in most parts of North and Central India and so the action shifts to the Southern states. Couple of disturbances on either side of the peninsula is keeping the state of TN active with heavy rainfall over interiors in particular. An Upper Air Circulation (UAC) over SE Arabian Sea and another one near Andaman sea are under watch as few models are developing these into 2 marginal Low Pressure Systems in the coming days. East-West shear zone in low to mid Troposphere runs roughly along North TN latitude.

02. INSATx

Chennai: With Easterly winds in flow, temperature likely to settle near 32-33c. A Cloudy day will see a few Showers in one or two regions of the city!

Vellore: Pleasant day on the cards as temp will be range bound at 31-32c. Look out for evening rains.

Coimbatore: Good chance of rainfall with temp likely to stay around 31-32c

Madurai: A cloudy day with the max temp staying close to 34-35c. Fair chance of rains.

Trichy: City will see a max temp of 34c with chances of Isolated showers.

742 thoughts on “Countdown to NEM starts!

  1. Gm guys🙂
    October account starts with 2mm rainfall here!
    On and off drizzles continuing..looks more or less like NEM days.✌🏻️

  2. Good Morning Anvil brings first NEM showers last night and the
    Nadia Comăneci award goes to him for his perfect NET

  3. Best of luck for NEM Kea.. The passion, camaraderie and the technical acumen of this team is fantastic. The yearning for rain reminds me of the yearning for snow in the South in US. Raleigh NC situated at a latitude of 35.6N is just a few hundred KM north of Srinagar, and in the plains. While temperatures drop below freezing in the night routinely, snow was a hit or a miss. The moist front from the south needs to coincide with a cold front from Canada. Without that perfect mix it is either cold dry air or damp rain. Raleigh used to get two to three snowfalls a year max. Chennai with rains is certainly luckier. Good luck Kea.

  4. Bad luck, winds turned S to N to SSW TO NNE 😭😭😭😭😭. All sea ts going away. Watch out for afternoon popups in land

    • TS just follows the lpa route.. It’s just a trailer, so we can’t expect hvy rain immediately for coastal areas.. We hv to Wait for 1 or 2 days..to get all things in our fav position..

  5. Why can’t we keep a contest on nem onset date? We used to hv regularly for past years.. Mod check to this..

  6. Winds turning back to South and SW. Thunderstorm possibility looks very higher for Interior Tamilnadu and Chennai may get some showers

  7. NEM 2015 Season Begins Officially.

    The first day of NEM season welcomed by early morning rain.

    The 01st October, the first day of NEM season begins in Tamil Nadu. Many parts of Chennai city got some showers early morning, it is like welcoming the season. Yes the season starts, also the expectations. The nerves and expectations of bloggers will be high as said by Shiva yesterday. The big request to bloggers is not to get disappointed or go negative while commenting here. This is often seen during NEM. Naturally NEM has lots of dry spells in between, those are the nature of the season, however we need to patient enough to get the results. When there is a failure of October month, one can see the blog going to extraordinarily negative mood and the blog gets anger. However one thing to keep in mind is to have patience and we need to think that we have November in hands, this is the month which bring most of the rains during this season.

    Patience is virtue. Lets blog with an example to other platforms. We all are matured now, we have been baring the past 3 years failure of NEM, by now we must be knowing how to control our emotions.

    This would be the first successful NEM for me since I joined this blog. I was here since September 2012, since then NEM did not score well, think about my level of patience and see how am I controlling my emotions. Life is like that. Lets all wait for the season to end to get the clarity of the monsoon, don’t get frustrated in between and go negative and don’t spread the same across.

    I am expecting at least a Normal rainfall this season for sure. Chennai going to rock. Entire state will in Normal scale, The western parts of the state might suffer a little. On the whole it looks fine for me this year.

    Enjoy NEM 2015. All The Best.

  8. OMG
    As per PAC avadi received around 60-70mm.
    Avadi received good rains last night and today early morning as well

  9. Further SWM withdrawal will begin from 06th onwards.

    It will withdraw from remaining North India and Entire NW Parts and in some parts of Maharashtra and Central India.

  10. Pre NEM atmosphere likely to begin from 03rd October.
    Winds are going to change to NW from Saturday onwards. Tomorrow only it will be from SW, from Saturday it is completely changing to NW at 850 HPA levels. This is perfect Pre NEM conditions.

  11. SWM rainfall pattern from June 1 to September 30th was -14% lesser than normal across the country as per IMD last report yesterday. My expectation of -15% was not achieve, still it is close to that. IMD was expecting -12%.

  12. It’s drizzling in Thanjavur now after good overnight rains – Report from my house. Glorious start to NEM 2015, between, Radar shows heightened activity near Nagai, Vedaranyam, Tiruvarur areas. After a disappointing SWM, these places are looking forward for normal NEM.

  13. Light rains in major cities of AP

    kakinada – 37.4 mm
    Ongole – 32.9 mm
    Machilipatnam – 11.8 mm
    kalingapatnam – 10.2 mm
    Vijayawada – 10.5 mm
    Tirupati – 8.5 mm
    Visakhapatnam – 5.5 mm
    kurnool – 5 mm
    Nellore – 4.5 mm

    • It is the 15 foot pillar which is the first modern observatory in east..located in madras observatory in egmore

      • The etched one is a 1790 inscription on the
        pillar made out of The Charnockite, St. Thomas Mount. Location The Remains of
        Madras Astronomical Observatory, Nungambakkam, Madras.

      • Yes….initially it was in egmorr but in 1792 it was moved to nungambakkam..
        meteorological observation began in 1796.

  14. Flash – IMD Morning Bulletin,

    05 October (Day 5):
    ♦ Heavy rainfall would occur at isolated places over north Tamilnadu and
    South interior Karnataka.

    This indicates that Bay LOW to move towards NTN coast.

  15. The sudden cloud activeness is due to East-West shear zone has gained latitude from 10N to 11N today morning. This is why lower level clouds are active. The same thing happened on Tuesday, that day also the Shear zone was near 11N and moved lower to 10N on yesterday.

  16. The city is set to get light rain on Thursday accompanied by a gradual drop in temperature, weathermen have predicted.
    An independent weather blogger Pradeep John said, “There could be heavy rain this weekend. An east-west shear zone stretching from the Bay of Bengal to the Arabian Sea may form into a low pressure area which could bring heavy rain.“
    The MeT website has predicted maximum and minimum temperature of 34°C and 26°C on Thursday .
    The city has received 263mm rainfall this year so far which is far below the normal 392mm rainfall.
    http://epaperbeta.timesofindia.com/Article.aspx?eid=31807&articlexml=Weathermen-predict-light-rain-in-city-01102015002072

  17. Nice comment partha.u always insist the blog to remain patient irrespective of the NEM result.
    i follow the same.
    like all i too expect a good NEM and wish to see good rains in chennai and delta.
    we should get our due this year.
    Lets hope the best.

  18. 05 October (Day 5):
    ♦ Heavy rainfall would occur at isolated places over north Tamilnadu and
    South interior Karnataka.

    IMD yesterday said from 5th TN will be dry,rt??

  19. As per sky met weather report, CC over central bay likely to intensify into WML/ D and affect coastal TN and SAP with very heavy rains

  20. Moderate rain in chidabaram to nagai sketch next few hours pondy, cuddalore in in some moderate rain if north east monsson always heavy rain in pondy to nagai sketch ,always chennai had bad luck

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