Southwest Monsoon withdraws from some more parts of NW and parts of central India

The Monsoon has withdrawn from most parts of NW India and some parts of adjoining central India. Thanks to a persistent lower level Anticyclone anchoring over NW India that brought in a significant shift in the wind patterns over the region. Meanwhile, the SWM has been active over TN & Puducherry along with parts of south interior Karnataka. Offshore, in deep Bay waters, conditions are favourable for a LPA to develop near north Andaman Sea and adjoining SE Bay in the next 24 hours. Under its influence heavy rains are likely over Andaman and Nicobar Islands. Dynamic weather models are expecting it to move towards AP/Odisha coast in general with a wide range of uncertainty. During the next 24 hours, parts of western interior TN along with many places in Kerala and south interior Karnataka will experience rainfall at many places, thanks to an upper air cyclonic circulation over SE Arabian Sea and an associated Shear Zone that is seen running along latitude 13 N.

02. India_Satx

Chennai to see a partly cloudy to cloudy day with a maximum temp. close to 34 C. Isolated rains may occur at times.
Madurai will see a maximum temperature in the low to mid thirties with a possibility of Thunderstorms around.
Coimbatore will stay pleasant at 30 C, with a possible Thunderstorm.
Trichy will experience a max temp. of 34 C. Rains possible
Vellore will stay comfortable at 33 C and Thunderstorms possible during the day.

985 thoughts on “Southwest Monsoon withdraws from some more parts of NW and parts of central India

  1. Hi Bloggers..

                    Yes, the much awaited, much anticipated, much talked about Monsoon of our region (North east monsoon) is just few hours away. NEMR (NORTH EAST MONSOON RAINFALL) period as per IMD calculations..
    Deep inside, its an understatement, if we do not accept that we are nervous ,anxious and eager to see how it unfolds this year…Few questions within ourselves  ‘Will it follow the same pattern of last few years.
          .We are all aware that our beloved NEM is one of the toughest one to forecast even for the well seasoned top meteorologists of the country. Its more of a system driven monsoon which caters to a restricted region compared to the SWM flow which spreads across the country and contributes a major share to the economy and agriculture..NEM too is very important for the economy as the rains are very important to the delta regions of TN and South AP which gets a major share of it..We have almost had good or above normal NEM starting from 2005 till 2011..The years that followed have been a disappointment though we had a decent monsoon last year when it was just about normal..Here is where the upcoming monsoon is very crucial on all fronts..For instance, Madras cities lake level have dipped to a new low and we are in a similar situation as we were in 2004 September.Thankfully, the situation is slightly better in terms better augmentation of water resources like Veeranam and desalination plants which were non existent then..On the other hand, the population has increased manifold and we are in dire need of a good monsoon to tide over a impending water crisis which is looming large..

      There is more suspense this year cos of various factors, SWM failing for the second year in a row across the country and this being a El Nino year adds up to the mystery of what’s is in store..Lot of theories floating around that ,TN invariably gets normal or excess rainfall if its an El Nino year as seen in the past..The recent memory of 2009 comes to our mind..When the whole country was deprived of good SWM rains, TN got copious rains and Madras city in particular got one of the best NEM in recent times when the city got about 900 mm of rains in NEM alone..This of course is a comforting factor that we may get to see a good monsoon when SWM had failed to deliver..Thanfully, TN did get to see a decent SWM starting June till now.

    Coming back to our blog and how we are going to respond to the situation we may face in the coming months is an interesting scenario indeed..The bloggers count and comments have increased with more number of silent watchers than before..Every year, the excitement hits the roof top just before the onset and hopefully we show some restraint and be patient towards the happenings in the next few months..I am certain that at least 95 % of the bloggers would want a repeat of 2005 and it goes without saying that majority of the comments are invariably linked to it…We have had years when easterlies have set it early, as early as first week of October and NEM setting in late by 23rd of 25th of October.Our monsoon has never been short of surprises, A poor or average October being compensated by superb November many a times and few times a very good October and a very average November .The years 2012 & 2014 comes to our mind instantly..

     Its often said that ,what is NEM without its regular share of BOB cooking up few strong systems..the debate keeps on going..Whether we need strong systems or it is just about enough if we have few LPa or WML to quench our monsoon thirst.

    There are few hard core weather enthusiast who would prefer a strong system to come our way to have a real feel of NEM…There are few who would just say, I’m more than happy with weak systems which would not travel north and spoil our chances…

     So, what’s going to be in store this monsoon…Honestly i do not have any clue whatsoever as we have seen in the past,that NEM many a times surprises itself rather than the weather followers themselves..

    Let’s enjoy our monsoon and with greater restraint and responsiveness as we are more matured now to understand the realities of nature and accept whatever it offers us..

    Happy blogging this NEM season and hopefully we stay satisfied at the end of the year..Cheers.

    .Welcome NEM 2015…

  2. Statistically Aug team has won. Unfortunately Chennai lost as worst sept comes to an end. Hope we have better than normal NEM. In fact i wish 200%😀😎

  3. Cumulonimbus visible towards South it Should be the TS over Marakkanam. Today good possibility of Rain/Passing Showers over many parts of Coastal Tamilnadu and Heavy Thunderstorms over Interior Tamilnadu

  4. Good morning..

    “Nothing is ever all bad. Look for the positives”.

    A weak low pressure disturbance is forming in Bay of Bengal and is expected to move towards North east Andhra Pradesh coast around Oct 3/4th.

    Most parts of Chennai city may have medium rain on Friday and Saturday. One or two places would have light rain on today and tomorrow and generally would have cloudy weather.

    North western districts including Tirupur, Erode, Namakkal, Salem , Dharmapuri and Krishnagiri will have medium to rather heavy rain for another 2 to 3 days.

    Parts of Delta districts will have medium to rather heavy rain.

    Southern districts including Dindigul, Madurai and Tirunelveli also will have medium to rather heavy rain for couple of days.

  5. Shiva,
    You touched nerves of the bloggers. This is what we have in our mind regarding nem. You have said everything comes to our mind in fraction of seconds. Definitely we are nervous. No excuses, it has to succeed this time otherwise we will struggle for water.

    As usual I am confident this time for getting normal rainfall across the state.

    Pfs will be out on 05th for NEM 2015.

    mind blowing narration shiva.

    • Thanks and vannakam Paartha..I just mentioned the variations we have in our monthly rainfall seen during NEM season..Eg.Last year we had a super October and below average November..2010 was very interesting..December overshot the main months of October and November with awesome figures of 287.6 mm for Nungambakkam. Hence we are always touch nervous and exactly do not know what the season will offer..

  6. The mid latitude extratropical system in the southern Indian ocean has covered a huge area in the last few days , making smaller spatial area available for subtropical Mascarene High and the cross equatorial low level jet has bent down its axis slowly.

  7. Good morning!
    Congratulations august team!
    These two months went in a bullet speed! It was great entertainment and all were expecting rains!finally august team won!

    Let’s make a move with unity to NEM which is going to begin in 5 mins

  8. Good bye swm 15..& to tension filled fun aug/sep game.. Let us welcome our NEM rains ☔.. Good start to Oct are on the way this week & hope it’s onset by normal date.. NEM 2015 started..

  9. Going to watch puli on coming sunday just for sridevi and chimbu devan. hope it doest make me repent later. Already I feel I wasted my money in thani oruvan.

  10. *** Closing Ceremony of the 1st Hunger Games 2015 (Aug vs Sep) in Kea Blog ***

    Welcome to the presentation ceremony of the 1st Hunger Games 2015. We witnessed an exciting Game of Rains over a period of two months. The players from both the teams were hungry for rains throughtout the tournament. It was expected to be a tight finish considering the impressive lineup of September team. But in the end, it was the August team who successfully defended their score by a huge margin with much ease.

    The Game was launched with the intention of getting rains as well as having a healthy debate on various aspects of weather during these two SWM months. I’m sure we learnt a lot on the weather front during the Games. It was fantastic to see energetic participation from players of all age groups – from Sai to Shiva, PowerPaul to PJ and Kiran to Kea. This speaks volumes to the success this Game has achieved.

    Some of the highlights of this tournament:

    * One of the best ever electric hitting from Aug openers on Aug 4
    * Mind blowing pictures and videos from Agumbe training camp taken by Aug team’s Cyclone Bros
    * Stepping down of Aug Captain Jupi and Sep VC Bijli
    * Excellent finish by Aug tailenders on 30th
    * Presentation of Mongoose Bat to AB Bijli of Sep team

    I would like to thank players from both the teams and their owners for making this tournament a massive hit. Special thanks to SaiKrishna for his contributions to the Games as a volunteer from the outset.

    Now, i would like to call upon the Captains of both the teams to have a quick chat.

    Jon (August) : September is a Champion team and we had to start scoring right from the first day to post an above par score. Luckily things worked for us and our top order fired at the right time. There were some hiccups in the mid weeks but our tailenders made sure we were safe. Overall very happy with the performance of our boys.

    Susu (September) : Well huh…we had to score from first day but lost too many days without scoring. Things didn’t work the way we had planned and the asking rate continued to climb. But we still had hope even till 30th because of the kind of power hitters in our lineup. Congrats to August team for having played better for most part the tournament and they deserve the title. We will go back to the drawing board and come back strongly next year.

    Now, i would like to request our honourable Special Guest Dr.S.R.Ramanan Sir from IMD to give away the Best Batsman Award to the Captain of the August team-Jon for a brilliant innings at the top which took the game away from the Septembereans and Best Bowler Award to Ashraf Atchu who demolished the September’s top order.

    Dr.Ramanan Sir will also present the Mementos to the Players, Owners and Organizer of this tournament and the Trophy to the Aug team owner.

    Aug team…The 1st Hunger Games Trophy is all yours now..Have a blast !!! We will meet you next year with more Fun to Learn.

    — “Ungal” ODM


  11. Wonderful narration Shiva sir. U have explained the emotions of every bloggers. Hope for every bloggers at least the nem becomes successful

  12. Really a great writeup as the first comment of the day shiva.. covered almost all the points of discussion during the next 3 months with right mix of technical terms.

    Also good write up followed up by ODM in his own style.. half year closing comments!!

  13. Hi everyone!! Welcome to the nem 2015..
    Hope it should be bountiful for all monsoon regions!!
    Especially farmers!! Again I dont want to see any tears from their eyes
    Without agriculture nothing is there..

  14. Chennai forecast for until 05th.

    Expecting some rain here and there until 03rd October.
    04th and 05th we might see very heavy rainfall.

    Temp will be closer to normal range, around 33C for the next one week time.

  15. Chennai Nunga and Meena september average closes with 70.95 MM.
    August average was 140.80 MM. Difference is 69.85 MM.

    Nunga – 75.10 MM
    Meena – 66.80 MM

    Nunga – 106.5 MM
    Meena – 175.1 MM

  16. IMD morning bulletin.

    MAX by 10th expect SWM withdrawal from entire country.

    To observe that no warning given to any of the east coast from 30th to 05th, means no strong system expected as per my expectation. No PRE NEM systems possible.

    Another point to note is that on 05th, IMD says “No Weather Warning”.
    It means SWM withdrawal progressing faster.

    I have enclosed screen shot.

    • Well you interpreted the IMD way, present wind pattern has already changed 2 or 3 days before to NE
      So practically the present rainy condition about to start from tomorrow need to see as NEM – pre monsoon rain.

      Also by today morning officially SWM period ended & NEM season starts.

      • it is not like that, wind direction is not the basic.
        monsoon axis has not come down in latitude. it has to come to 15N latitude, then wind at lower levels should be strong enough from NE, then another criteria that over interiors rainfall. The final 2 is ok now, but axis still not come down.

  17. vagaries have predicted the current low pressure over andaman sea travels direct west and start impacting central and north tamil nadu from tomorrow evening. As strong anticyclone persists in central india, the movement of system towards north highly unlikely. likely to cross as a depression close to 14 north near nellore. chances of going above 14 north as it is very remote.

    if so, tamil nadu can get pre-monsoon heavy showers in another 2 days. good news on the water table.


  18. Foreca, AccuWeather, Gfs, Wunderground, VFS, PFS, AFS, KFS, KWB, vagaries of weather, indian weather man, skymet predicting very heavy rains to start in Chennai and TN from Friday /Saturday

  19. Rossby favouring entire TN from tomorrow. Negative OLR getting induced.
    This will bring thundershowers for next few days time. With this Pre NEM showers we will get good quantum in October i believe.

    This negative OLR likely to stay till 04th October. There is every chance that the upcoming LOW likely to become a UAC again in next 48 hours.

  20. I think frm now onwards mostly my places and other coastal places should get rains first as TS are moving frm sea. Is am right.

  21. Mumbai rainfall this SWM season. It has finished with approx -20% deficit.

    Santacruz – 1823.2, short of 408.4 MM. Deviation -19%.
    Colaba – 1604.8, short of 448.3 MM. Deviation -22%.

  22. Closing ceremony of SWM

    kurnool – 7.8 mm
    Hyderabad – 1.8 mm
    Total rainy days of kurnool in this september – 24 days..and total rainfall of kurnool stands at 156 mm

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