A weak disturbance has formed in the Andaman Sea which is likely to develop into a Low Pressure Area (LPA) in the next 2 days. This system is expected to move towards Andhra Pradesh coast in the coming days. Vertical wind shear is moderate to high around the system which would be a negative factor for significant organization of the system in the future. Meanwhile, TN will continue to get widespread rainfall with heavy storms occurring particularly over interior and western parts of TN (district of Coimbatore and Nilgiris). Kerala will also be getting heavy thunderstorms for the next few days. Dry conditions to prevail for the northern peninsula as the South West monsoon continues to withdraw.
Chennai: City will see max temperature of 34-35C with partly cloudy skies, thunderstorms are likely in isolated places of the city.
Madurai: Maximum Temperature is expected to peak around 33C. Chances of thunderstorm activity in most parts of the city.
Coimbatore: Temperature will be close to 32C. Sky will be cloudy with a fair chance of heavy TS.
Vellore: City will witness a pleasant day with maximum temperature touching 33-34C. Thunderclouds are expected to develop around afternoon time giving rain to most parts of the city.
Trichy: City will see thunderstorms in the evening hours. Maximum Temperature are likely to be around 35C.
KeaWeather Archives 
IMD WRF
Wow looks good for chennai
IMD GFS
GFS Perception
Radar
Last day for Sept…
How nature wants to close this month – Interesting Day… Till 8.30am tomorrow
No surprises๐๐๐
wet start expected for October
OMG…what a twist in the tale๐๐๐๐
Why no surprises. …you had told gaurnteed sixer on 30th
It’s delaying day by day๐
even if we give 1 week of October, Sep team still cant win
AUG records rain on 30th it has 31 days but SEP has only 30 days extend one day to till 8.30am on day after tomorrow :p
It’s logic๐๐๐๐
Good morning..It has to be a miraculous 24 hours from now for Sep to win the Games.
September going to win ๐๐
Sep team wants 1 extra day as August had 31 days
Yep๐๐๐๐
okay we will give you time till midnight if everyone agrees
Super๐๐๐
September victory confirmed ๐
ha ha. u didn’t read the 2nd part. All have to agree first.
Secondly, even if I extend time until 1st week of October, still Sep team cant overtake August.
๐
Ok fine
Noooooooooooooo
Still u dint ready for trophy… Enna partner ne epidi panra
Sorry Paul. The idea has been rejected by Acthu. So no time extension possible. Sep rains end in 25 hours 10 min.
Lol๐๐๐
Ok kea , its ok
Sep teamukku innekku jackpot adikkuma ?
Sep team still dreaming of a win.
Situation is like 70 runs needed in 1 over. Unless we give extras, it is not possible to chase.
No extension is possible…we agreed to use imd rules for scoring…
Ts northeast of chennai moving towards coast…
September team Watchout that
Vl dissipate like yday…but they need miracles to happen
Sep team wants one extra day to make it as 31…if it bcoms 31, will it be called as September??? ๐
Its like D/L method now…they have to win in 30 days!
hope trophy is ready with August name engraved
Septemberuku time tharlaena aug 30th rain shouldn’t be counted :p
Ithu enna nyayam aug matum 31 naal Septemberuku 30 naal ๐
I just happened to read two different versions (1) The first one -wet start expected for October and The second one (2) even if we give 1 week of October, Sep team still cant win -which means there wont be wet start in October is it.- what a contradiction or inconsistency !!
Kea has to answer this๐๐
Am I right or not
wet started expected. It can even be 5 mm/day. Still not enough to overtake
A gorgeous day is expected for Chennai!
Lol๐ญ๐ญ๐ญ
Deivame
7.30 visible
Good cool morning.
Latest gfs shows upcoming system moves towards south ap and ntn coast on 05th. So another version. The upcoming system is doubtful. As I said nem before 15th possible. The strong acc from nw does not allow the system move towards north ap and odisha.
So chennai will get useful rains from it
Today at about 2 am to 3 am there was very heavy rain in pondy
Today asusual winds are from North. Storms should form over east of Nellore or over SHAR areas for Chennai to get Rains. But sure shot west of chennai to get heavy thunderstorms from noon
Heavy Thunder okay like last two days, how about storm!
Only Isolated Chances for Chennai city and all over North coastal tamilnadu
Sep deficient has come down a bit. We have to see the official figures
Cuddalore 21mm frm overnight rain
Pondy figures
Waiting
The power of Positive IOD – Except South India, all other regions got excess rainfall during September 17th to 23rd.
South India got -38% deficit.
Click to access weeklypress.pdf
Sep average is more for south india than north and central
In the past 4 days, i am getting chill water in the morning time. Good to feel it.
Enjoy you have got maargazi early
Somebody must have dropped ice cubes in the over head tank. Mahanya Magic..
Outskirts enjoys chiller nights than city. It happens always.
I saw dense fog with dew drops in grass near Sholingur on Sunday morning.
Even I felt so in east tambaram.. Water is cool in morning…
As per my forecast, we had some light rain yesterday. it would have 2 MM rainfall in my area yesterday afternoon around 01.30.
http://blog.keaweather.org/index_current.php?id=2039#comment-2268647568
3.6 mm here in ANW
Srilanka coast battered by rainbands over few days
Galle 101mm 176 in 2 days
Agumbe finishes swm with a deficit of 210cm, shirali by 100cm Mangalore by 97cm ๐ฆ
still 24 hours left
Good morning!
As per gfs,
LOW will take shape in BOB in next 24-48hrs!
If this happens deluge for chennai!
looks like a strong sytem with strong southern bands!
Don’t rule out rain for Chennai today. Will it get 74 mm required is the question
70.5 MM required, it is like they have to score 6 sixes in an over.
6 sixes in 4 balls
Are you kidding?
why you are beating the dead snake again n again
700 hpa relative vorticity
North Coastal TN has good chance of Heavy rainfall today or tonight.
The elongated trough extending from the UAC over Andamans likely to produce some instability over the coast. We have chance even tomorrow.
spot on sel…heavy rains lashed covai yesterday evening for one hour.
September team is a tougher team than august.
And august is a better team than september.
No doubt about it.
Nature will have the final say.
lets wait until 12am tomorrow to see who wins.
eagerly waiting for experts prediction for a wet start to october.
cheer up guys.
August or september whoever wins no one can deny the fact that we all belong to KEA Team.
you are still having hope? 70.5 mm to get in less than 23 hours
yes why not.i have hopes.
Nothing great for Chennai.
Nothing can be predicted with Nature. Even Aug 30th Rain is surprise for all
Yep. Here 82mm
That day was disastrous here massive flooding. I went out with my @ 1o clock just to see water. It was upto my knees
Active monsoon conditions reduced temperature in central and south tamilnadu area.
No time extention should be given for sep team
Our team
Judge sollitaarpa ok no appeal
apa august aadicha 31 mm kurechudhu!
Ethala nyayam ila pa. Aug 30th cut aayidum Aparam. Aparam september thaan winner.
Neeyae mudivu pannu kudukarthu better ah ila thokarthu better ah nu :p
Yeppovum nermaya irukkunum
Nerma yedhu. Contest na equal ah irukkanum ama. Let captain decide
Leave it cm Anna . Still one day left god has to answer to him
เฎเฎทเฏ เฎ เฎชเฏเฎชเฎพ เฎเฎจเฏเฎค เฎเฏเฎชเฏเฎเฎฎเฏเฎชเฎฐเฏ เฎเฎชเฏเฎชเฏเฎคเฎพเฎฉเฏ เฎฎเฏเฎเฎฟเฎฏเฏเฎฎเฏ -เฎเฏเฎเฏ เฎคเฏเฎฒเฏเฎฒเฏ เฎคเฎพเฎเฏเฎ เฎฎเฏเฎเฎฟเฎฏเฎฒเฏ
The inland low level convergence was so much persistent yesterday around the interiors of TN and subsequently had resulted in heavy rains as well. There was an “L” getting marked along coastal N.TN and S.AP in model forecasts which did reflect on the 12 UTC analysis charts as well. A pressure drop indeed was observed with an elongated closed isobar running north-south. Yet an other example that rains do depend on a combination of factors and just not on the surface pressure alone.
As per the latest available ecmwf run, it seems the upcoming system will move a bit slow and considerable deepening expected just offshore of vizag.
Dubakoor ECMWF
๐๐๐๐๐
Ameenu ku ellame dubakoor dhaan…
๐๐๐๐๐๐ ๐ ๐ ๐ ๐
Clouds started to form over north and north east ๐. Good sign for isolated showers
TS likely to hit Chennai from NE. Watch out. See radar animation it is moving towards chn
That was ENE
IMD will announce it as NEM or not??? Or pseudo-NEM arising due to E-W shear zone??
850,700,500 hpa have turned to NE to SW some N to S
Ameen few days back also the TS was there… but it didn’t hit the coast!
U can see a ts today has hit chidambaram from NE. This Ts coming from 200 KM From NE. It will sustain. See it will hit at least South Chennai
Think positive dude ๐
It is more likely to head towards south. There is possibility of drizzles
Yep. S. Chn, South of Chennai. New cells developing N of that band. If it combines then N Chennai has good chance
Tis is the area with maximum positive Vorticity, maybe with developing LLC . system is likely to get caught under two ridges at lower level one in northwest & the other one near eq.ridge under tight environment at lower level. system may get steered by mid level ridge in indo-china with near Nw’ly track and changing to westerly track in response to extending ridge from east after 4 days.. tis is the current scenario,it may/maynot change.
In fact the models were quite accurate in predicting this kind of tighter low level situation for quite some time.
yeah yeah..
So system hitting SAP?
ameen,there is no consensus yet. Entire ap stretch has a chance
what about NTN?
any brief showers possible?
it depends upon the track whether we’ll get direct impact or indirect impact would b known!!
So westerly track possible?
When nem onset???? Eagarly waiting
Oct 8- 15
Yahooo
Not before 10th Oct
As per current scenario nem onset will happen in oct 15to 17;-)
Ohh..hope onset will be soon
Good rains possible in first half of Oct. But onset will be declared only around 15th
Yep dude waiting for school holiday:-P
Haaaa
What will this fetch us?
Hopefully the margin of defeat for Sep team is reduced
Kea u in aug team right?
If you count August rains till August 30th 8:30 AM then??
rao gaaru leave it.captain is doing his job let nature answer us.
Still one day left for NEM month ๐ .
Yes
As per ppv, ts moving towards us….converging happening in sea …
yes atchubro moisture level also gud it help the ts will sustain:-)
Too me, it looks like intense ones will go below tambaram. Only some drizzle bands might reach city if we are lucky
Yep
I already clearly told everyone to keep August 30 th 8:30 AM to August 31st 8:30 AM as reserve day. But no one listen to my words. Even ODM too๐๐๐
Rao ji..your NEM forecast is out?
Nope. In general I am not giving any NEM/SWM forecasts. Partha is giving it.
Guys , u all know august having 31 days and sep 30 days..then y u didnt pick august???? simply dont turn ur lose into something something…
August won thatsole….
No extra time or day ll be given …
Ha..ha..asking for equal justice๐๐๐
How one will be happy with injustice that too in elnino year๐๐๐
We can give a concession taking average rainfall per day ๐
good point..,picking ur team was left to us, one shld b sensible while choosing !! tis is like 23 years aged bowler denying to bowl 31 year batsman just bcos tat batsman is aged and experienced!!
Yes no extra time or day will be given(strictly):-D
Coming system is like hudhud and phailin?????
No, not that severe
first will it attain cyclone status?
Good question…
May not , but with the slower moving condition nothing can be ruled as of now.
ohhh but, if it attains cyclone status it will move NNE??
As per models latest available outlooks , doesn’t look like a Cyclone , but in case if it develops into a storm , it has almost all the possibilities to track WNW/NW only towards Indian east coast.
Gokul sir gfs howing this system crossing sap in oct5 ?
*showing
Yeah models are not in a proper consensus. Only when the system gets a decent structure , they may fall in line. Better to wait for another 48 hours at least.
Oh ! Anychances of this track westerly? Towards sap and ntn?
As of now , a situation like that has lesser chances.
No chance akshay this system will be depression only(depressione doubt dhan):-P
Are you old or new??
Roa ji u. Forget me?:-o
you may not be guest11K, as he don’t use Tamil words๐๐๐
Nope i’m not guest11k
I understood๐๐๐ I am analysing your style of comments to recognise you๐๐
Identify me:-P
He is steve roger.
OMG..it’s vijay fan then๐๐๐
lol
It’s fact as both are same๐๐๐
‘coming’ system must actually come first ๐
Ts approaching Chennai. Radar update (intensifying now)
Will September win with 22 hours left
Seems you are in a very happy mood today than when you had Bakrid biryani
22+24 as per equal of law??
Agreeing to your demand of equality – it will be: net Aug rains/31 & net Sep rains/30. Runrate is enough ๐
Super point๐๐๐
a possibility of good low pressure system forming over south east bay. already there are indication in radar as we could see massive rains close to chennai coast. if we get a good system in 2 days, NEM would start with a bang well in advance. Already south west monsoon winds lost its strength, but IMD yet to declare withdrawal of monsoon.
ss
Imd very rarely declared nem before 15th
Monsoon Axis has not come down, still over North. Unless it comes down to 15N they will not declare the withdrawal.
Meena recorded 1 MM rainfall as of 08.30 AM.
Also minimum temp was 24.6C, Nunga 26.5C.
Now September has to score exactly 70 MM.
http://www.imdchennai.gov.in/obs_data.htm
September*๐๐๐
It’s September.
TS Strengthening See In PPI (Close Range)
normally when we get thunder-cells close to chennai coast that too in the morning, this coincides with north east wind pattern. if it moves towards chennai this can further indicate SWM winds cease.
ss
How a weak system climbing higher latitude?? Means SWM axis still in rigid position with southward extension??
No end in sight for super typhoon tales in w.pacific.. Another ST expected in w.central pacific around the end of oct 1st week.. tat may be one villain for indian ocean.
Click to access get_legacy_plot-atls06-95e2cf679cd58ee9b4db4dd119a05a8d-gJdKvk.pdf
Also look into the other tiny one managing to gain strength near north Vietnam coast, but it seems to fluctuate with every update.
yeah same latitude… Even in 2013,2014 we had pre nem systems with pacific monsters along the same lat
As it progresses towards Northern part, it might let out its remnants towards Andaman Sea, this will trigger NEM winds, its possible.
I guess Sel was saying about the TY that is seen near 150 E longitude…That is too far to send any kind of energy into our basin, and in fact it may transfer its energy to mid latitude westerlies at the max.
Oh, then there wont be any impact on IO, is it not?
Yeah , that far , it may not drag the Monsoon Trough too much along with it, will get detached and move out with it’s steering flows.
i hav a different thought that If ther is no system in bay,we may see major sinking from pacific typhoons moreover they disturb flow across eq eastern indian ocean. so i feel chances are there to influence us if we see sw’y winds at that time.
Yeah agree with u on the pt. that equatorial flows will take a huge impact from a system that is of this larger scale. And yes, it is better to look at the 200 VP average and anomaly to check on the possible impacts.But , i disagree with Partha’s view on possible remnants of this coming into BoB , which I’ve never seen until now , especially when it is expected to move with such high intensity. Though Wilma kind Depressions may track westward , but feel not a system with this magnitude.
Heavy rain coming ( image attached )
Typical NEM type rains๐๐
Yep really enjoying the climate
Zipee zipeed:-P
Yipee Yipeed!
omg!!! turning dark in no time
Yep scary clouds
Yes
here sun shining.
Huge cloud mass marching towards entire city
OMG..touching 50KM??๐๐๐
Dark here at KK nagar
here sun still there.
Ts strengthening. Moving towards city
Radar animation looking confusing to me. Bigger storms and most others are moving SW. One or two tiny intense storms from 13N close to coast is moving NE beyond SHAR
South band having more strength . North band containing only drizzles.
I think so the band might go to south chennai or south of chn
21W DUJUAN
As of 00:00 UTC Sep 29, 2015:
Location: 25.0ยฐN 119.1ยฐE
Maximum Winds: 75 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 967 mb
Guyzz..pls keep our expectations low!
The band might go south of chn!might it also flank west!
New pop ups forming NNE of chn too
Lol… I am not even expecting drizzles.
Yes…!
Future super typhoon!
99W INVEST
As of 00:00 UTC Sep 29, 2015:
Location: 13.8ยฐN 174.1ยฐE
Maximum Winds: 15 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1007 mb
ECMWF still sticking to Odisha landfall of upcoming system. However GFS changed it in a big time towards South AP.
who will win?
we obiously want GFS to win!
gfs will follow ecmwf track in coming hrs..
yes that it always does. all depends on the intensity and the place of birth of the system.
If this band formed at early morning hrs today.. We would hv got hvy rains..
Super climate!
Cloudy !
Tmrw Exam For Me ): ): ):
Haha!
๐๐๐
):):):
Go and study
i will study at 12!
Then ok ๐
Study well…
Radar Updated :):):)
To day the cloud spread appears to be North East and Central and is much better than last two days. Let us see
is my post deleted already. i searched for 20 mts. where is it, any land mark pl
Missing the chennai rains… Sunny at Goa…
Please don’t send the rains here
I think south chn and south of chennai will benifit from this ts northchennai will get only light rains!!!
first will it touch our coast!
Daiii!!
super super you are right storm the boy
Bhaskaran sir wat is ur thought abt nem onset?
Undoubtedly bountiful should be around 13-15th
When reaching 30 KM radius storms moving towards SSW direction.
๐ฑ๐ท๐ญ๐ญ๐ญ๐ญ๐ญ๐ญ
so only brief drizzle!!!
south of cgl has a fair chance from my view.meena and tbm has some chance as there are some yellow dots.
ippadiye pona Kanyakumari vanthudum…
Adhuku Vera band irukku
Heavy rain here.just started
omg storms moving sw
drizzling!
Heavy drizzles here!
โฆ The upper air cyclonic circulation over Gulf of Siam & neighbourhood now lies over
north Andaman sea and neighbourhood and extends upto midtropospheric
level. Under its
influence a low pressure area would form over north Andaman & Nicobar sea and adjoining
southeast Bay of Bengal during next 12 hours
Dark clouds gathered here
Localized pop ups!
Light rain herrr
winds picking up..signs of approaching rains!!!
Flash Shankaran Sir. Can I have your mail is pls..
It’s pouring
What’s happening!
Pouring!
Localized popup
Smashing!
After 15 minutes, you will be saying 1 mm…Am i right?
lol..
lolol
rains at 11am…is nem started ???lol
september rains atchu
lol
Pre nem started. B:-Pro
Sri is showing some heavy rains in that band.. It’s flanking more north, so entire city will be under drizzles soon..
getting dark here;-)
Pounding here
Sier rains dumping here!
The condition to bloggers from now on is, they have to forget the sultry and hot weather, switch off the AC’s, open the windows, so that we can enjoy this type of climate. Once again we will witness low minimum temp, nights will be cooler.
what about fan?
Still October first week or till 10th it will be hot n humid.
Atleast inside the house, it will be fine. I believe AC not required, lets enjoy the natural weather.
As of now it is still humid and sultry , we see from tonight whether any changes happen
Slowed down!
Moderate rain!
Light rain!
Again started!
Steady heavy rain!
Sure 5mm
nothing here in geroge town
???
Storm 30-40km away!
Waiting. Waiting. Waiting:-P
Something special in k.k Nagar??
Heavy rains in deepak island:-o
๐
A bunch of ripe grapes are at arm distance for chennaiites …should see who will get how much
will have to see whether it is sweet or sour
Some of it ripen….and how much share sister city gets