The Upper Air Circulation (UAC) over Kerala and South Interior Karnataka which has bought thundershowers across interior parts of TN, is likely to weaken in the next 24 hours. The persisting UAC over Lakshadweep will seed heavy rainfall over isolated places of Kerala, TN & SI Karnataka in the past 24 hours. The low over Bangladesh has weakened and so rainfall is likely to reduce in the coming days over East and NE India.
Chennai – Weather likely to remain partly cloudy with day temp to touch 35C.
Madurai – Day will remain hot with a max temp of 38C. Rain or thundershowers possible towards evening or night.
Coimbatore – Max Temp likely to be around 34C. Light rain possible.
Vellore – Day temp likely to touch 34C with rain or thundershowers possibility during evening or night.
Tiruchirappalli – Another hot day on the cards with the max temp likely to touch 38C. Rain or thundershowers possible in few areas by evening or night.
IMD WRF
Next 10 Days…
ha..ha..Vela, this forecast no more believable 😦 God only knows when they show bars and when they remove the bars 😦
Rain for Chennai in this Sept also like that
Good morning..Many parts of Anthiyur, Bhavani taluks of Erode dt and Mettur Taluk of Salem dt.received good rain last night.
Further heavy to very heavy rain is expected to Erode, Tirupur , salem ,other parts north western interior districts and Part of delta districts for another 4 days from today.
no rains for Chennai??
R u expecting ?
yes, and making flash..alert..keeping ready between 26-29, especially around 27 & 28.
Good… Super
by looking today’s satellite picture or earthnull school or any other parameters, no one will expect any rains till next 10-14 days 😦 but I am daring to prepare flash alert. if I fail it will be my 3rd failure. interestingly all 3 failures will be in September only 😦
Power of Sept
Grow Trees ! ! !
Save our Earth ! ! !
IMD did it..
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/Weather-department-hits-bulls-eye-for-the-first-time-with-prediction-of-drought-year/articleshow/49097807.cms
operation success but patient is dead 😦
Either today or tomorrow will be Chennai’s day
ha..ha..27 th or 28th best chances….be ready on 28th to lift the trophy as the captain after winning the match 🙂
I will be ready to take the man of the match for 2 successful predictions (excluding august one and its only for September, one is for 20th and 2nd one for 27th/28th, winning shot) even under very tough September conditions.
Trophy 🏆.. for u..
thx 🙂
Gud morning.. Tomorrow is high chance for us.. as the trough will move on to North TN.. Today winds r expected to change for us..
IMD’s director general Mr.Rathore was disappointed over the “disproportionate” attention given by a section of the media to a private weather company’s forecast of a normal monsoon this year.
spot on 🙂
Rami, you too were on their side from the beginning of the monsoon. 😂😂
ha..ha..by looking at the strength of the Elnino and erratic monsoons, still 2015-avoided very serious drought unlike past strong Elnino years (except 1997/1957). Is it or not??
This was due to favorable QBOONI equation only. Take home message from SWM-2015 is that QBO must start decreasing from august onwards with increasing ONI in 1997 style for good SWM-rains. Unfortunately in 2015, QBO still in increasing mode beyond august. So SWM-2015 will be ending in deficit.
This theory will be corrected slightly based on 1957,1997 & 2015 (almost good SWM strong Elnino years) versus 1965, 1972, 1982, 1987 (worst SWM strong Elnino years) in terms of QBOONI parameters.
QBOONI-Elnino years:
Ennomo solla varinga’nu theriyudhu…😆
lol…slowly everyone will understand this slowly 🙂
. At least now the general public and certain sections of the media will trust , have faith in long standing experience, wealth of knowledge, observations and general acumen which IMD possess. Moreover its has become a hobby to ridicule the Govt met dept time and again..
For past 4days low clouds came from south in early morning itself.. Today it’s missing..
Wind vela prediction of 90mm average is looking bright 🙂
Flash…alert for Nunga/Meena (core Chennai violent TS alert) between 26th & 29th (especially on 27th/28th September)……..No need to worry about missing wide-spread rains for Nunga/Meena in September. But slowly few important parameters turning rain friendly for Core-Chennai from September 26th onwards.
Especially on September 27th/28th, all must be on high alert due to possibility of violent electric thunderous wide-spread VS-TS that arriving from N/NW. Most places my cross 50 mm within no time. 1 or 2 places may even cross 100 mm. So be careful 🙂
Lol..Wat about orrisa cyclone
lol…after this wet-phase for Chennai its going to take shape at south-Andaman sea 🙂
South andaman sea?? Then it ll head towards south ap only
Unfortunately this system might be flanking in east side of E-W shear zone. Moreover this year all SWM-systems exhibiting NW or N/NW track. so there won’t be any chance for it to cross below CAP.
If a system forms SE of srilanka, fair chances for making LF in TN as system following NW/ NNW due to strong westerly phase QBO
lol…NNW/NW by westerly QBO is correct. but to make towards TN, then it must travel W/NW. I think its time for you draw your tracking-paints 🙂
Ya y not on 30th??
we wanted to finish the match on 29th only to avoid the final ball tension 🙂 but real reason is strong pull-effect from WP-typhoon Dujuan will be weakening on 30th drastically. And MJO may move into highly unfavorable phase 7 from one of the more favorable phases 5/6 (these are most favorable phases after 2/3) after 29th September.
Making up the down Linux rly server ‘s huge task.. today came at 1pm to off on emergency and done the job..got👏 from staffs.. anyhow I hv to stay 3 more hrs.to meet higher off..
Very good chances for another 50mm for Chennai before 8.30am on 29th of this sep
100mm…® I was
Very good chances for August team to win …..
Wait and see. How august scored 50mm on a last day nobody expected that its a surprise
We had a long wait very boring September team …don’t look for boundaries try some singles & doubles…lol
we will try sixes !!!
Mudalaa singles adinga
When it Rains u will run away when it not rains u were present here. Wait till 29th sep. Pls stay active while its raining
Aiyooo……ipadi than daily sollurenga aanal mazhai than varala
Ellam sethuvechu orae naal la peiyurathu than Septemberin nokkam
Apadi mazhai vantha romba santhosham…..santhosham
Periakulam – 39mm
Lower Kothaiyar – 29mm
Palacode – 25mm
OMG..no one is confident of heavy rains before September 30th 😦
According to NET clouds should be coming from WSW today. For the past few days due to Southerly winds Cumulus Clouds have started to appear very early in the morning but today it hasn’t appeared still. Hence the clouds movement should be WSW to ENE. If it is as expected there is a chance for TS possibility tonight for North Coastal Tamilnadu
no one is believing these rains till it starts pouring 😦
Lets wait for the next 3 days
thumbs up 🙂
Can’t wait for the victory!
Would be suprised if nunga crosses 10 mm more this sep
Lol!
At max another 40mm may happen if really lucky between 27-28
😦 😦
Expecting sureshot of 50mm in both nunga and meena
50 is even not enough. 70 is the unlikely target to win
Flash…alert for Nunga/Meena (core Chennai violent TS alert) between 26th & 29th (especially on 27th/28th September)……..No need to worry about missing wide-spread rains for Nunga/Meena in September. But slowly few important parameters turning rain friendly for Core-Chennai from September 26th onwards.
Especially on September 27th/28th, all must be on high alert due to possibility of violent electric thunderous wide-spread VS-TS that arriving from N/NW. Most places my cross 50 mm within no time. 1 or 2 places may even cross 100 mm. So be careful 🙂
If nunga or meena record 100 mm, I quit as owner of August team
ha..ha..in fraction of second I thought its quitting from the blog owner 🙂 🙂
i too same way
Upto now September team has been talking and talking. Only bad results until now. What did I say at the beginning. Before you realise it, month will be over. Just 4 more days left and 70 still to get. Highly unlikely. Maximum they will get is 25-40 mm
thumbs down 😦 😦
I think u r the lone warrior for Sep team. PJ nowhere to be seen.
ha..ha..he will come with good news for September team 🙂
Spot on..he just post one or two and going away in no time
I am here with sep
i am here with september.
Kudos to the August team!
lol..again thumbs down 😦 😦
Cheers august team..we almost won..
75 mm in 4 days is difficult task… Let’s celebrate
Why 75, let’s make it 70 itself
I may not able to stop my laugh once it starts bucketing down on 27th/28th till the September team’s victory confirms 🙂 🙂
Double thumbs down
lol ..:( 😦
August team owners (me & invisible Jon) nominate Shankar to collect the trophy this Sunday at the photo meet.
over confidence?? 🙂 🙂
It’s now like 36 of 6 balls
1 ball in September can yield 6X6s 🙂
Lol….old punch!
😦 😦
Even Ravi Shastri has done that. So all result are possible!!!!!
Live streaming please!
Gopal will arrange. Not even sure if he knows aug vs Sep contest is on
lol 🙂
I thought ODM and Jon will participate this sunday..
I can sense the frustration of the September team members!
95% of team members gone silent. They all will claim they were in august team on 30th.
Hope someone still has the original list.
lol 😦 its morning breakfast time 😦
lets start the second match Oct vs Nov. match over for Sep
Yeah after the trophy presentation ceremony!
lol..October vs November is not good competitors like september vs august
Kea lets wait for final nail nxt 2 days bfor eruption.. Pj wil start his prayers watch out :p
He is busy packing for his west coast trip
lol 😦
lol…I had given my flash…alert of heavy rains. till today I had only 2 failures in SWM-2015 season that too happened in September only. My latest flash alert between sep’20-22 too yielded good wide-spread heavy rains of average 25mm for most places on September 20th.
so be on high alert on 27th/28th.
OMG…rapid intensification for WP-typhoon Dujuan within no time is on the cards. So there will be high chances for it in exhibiting strong pull on SWM-current. So be on high alert on 27th/28th.
One must not forget that how super-typhoon “Soudelor” from the same place induced very strong pull effect on our SWM-current that resulted in august-4th violent TS over core Chennai.
Only difference between then & now is style of rainfall inducing mechanism. On august 4th its direct Komen’s synoptic system’s presence at central India that induced the VS-Ts. But for the forecasted VS-TS on 27th/28th, it will be the genesis of east-west shear zone.
OMG….still no one confidence in my forecast. I think only direct rains on 27th/28th will make all our friends very happy. Hope it happen soon 🙂
No improvement seen in october forecast…Maybe we shld forget october!!
what about early NEM-forecast as per few of our freinds’ expectations??
What new bomb is this?
ithu TNT category!!
For entire TN?
no..North tn. the forecast is seen consistent with below avg rain for most parts of north tn.. Hope nature has different idea.
Okay. Lets hope for a gud NEM
But the models have assured deluge for PP and surrounding areas. Not to worry. Mouli is always there . Motivator (Moulivator) par excellence..
Lol 🙂
Instead of saying like this, you can ask Kea to close this blog, that is far better.
lol 😦 😦
Jana Gana Mana
Massive Towers forecasted by ECMWF based Foreca
http://www.foreca.com/India/State_of_Tamil_Nadu/Chennai
For today and Tomorrow
OMG..PJ, then my flash alert will turn to reality👍😀
Rami, apart from your great weather knowledge, you have a immense sense of humour.
How??😆😆😆
See the Easterly winds on 10th over SE Bay, wont you accept it now Mr Selva..
hi partha, it is an anticyclone at lower level over northeast bay..tat flow is making easterly. all this temporary flow wont b considered as easterlies onset.. criteria itself says permanent, persistent easterlies with rains..
then what you call on South China Sea and Eq and South Indian Ocean changes?
you want me to show nem surge look?..wait for two mins
I am not saying NEM setting on 10th, but i am saying the preparations happening during that time.
may that is due to the system.
the thing is not accepting ..i couldnt see any firm signs as you see.. winds ,pressure is not in convincing stste
*convincing state
agree as i am seeing the forecast for the past few days, i could sense that the charts will change in coming days, this is what my point of view, however i am not seeing any extraordinary rainfall in October, still NEM on the cards before schedule.
Check tis set of images showing how NEM surge moves into s.china sea with a strong winds and slowly into andaman sea, and finally into TN!! It’s in order…consistent ,permanent easterlies along with rains!!
this is the typical pattern observed few days before and during NEM onset!!
just compare your pic with mine below, my below image shows that it is preliminary to NEM.
But still by October 4th, there is no strong ignition of these NE-winds from China main land http://www.ncmrwf.gov.in/Data/2015-09-24/NGFS-Outputs/Wind-Forecast/pft10_925.jpg
Good collection sel.. Is that origin in S. china called siberian high?
no..siberian high is way north from tat point!! the ridge of tat extends into tropics interacts with low(ITCZ) wich is over warm waters n makes our NEM
purinja mathiriyum irrukku.. puriyatha mathiriyum irruku.. i will get it clarified when meeting in person.
When NEM start?
Any one?
The normal onset set dates are between October 15/16 and 21/22..
20th with a deviation of a week
Lets forget the charts, i am sure la, NEM will start before schedule la….
👍👍👍😀😀😀
One or two days +- (20th oct)
Partha Sri..Do you travel to Malaysia often ?
athu yentha pakkam irukku??
As the four-month monsoon season nears its end, a water and power crisis looms. India’s major reservoirs, whose waters are used for irrigation, electricity generation and for drinking, are mostly emptier than normal..
Worst situation is in the 31 reservoirs of southern India, which are together filled to only 35 per cent of their capacity. These should normally be filled to 81 per cent of their capacity at this time.Government figures updated until Wednesday show the country’s 91 big reservoirs had a total of 95.313 billion cubic metres of water in them — just about 60 per cent of the total capacity of these reservoirs..The basins of the Ganga, Indus, Narmada, Mahi, Sabarmati, and the rivers of Kutch are carrying normal levels of water. However, the Godavari, Mahanadi and Cauvery, and the west flowing rivers of the South, are highly deficient.
http://indianexpress.com/article/explained/a-level-of-concern-bad-monsoon-leaves-its-mark-reservoirs-are-emptier-than-normal/
Today morning it was a small surprise for me. After getting ready to office, i will get sweat non stop, even when i sit under the fan, but today, it was sweating lightly and when i sat under the fan the sweat was slowly winding off, also when i walked towards the main road it did not sweat much and felt little comfortable.
Far better morning, season change over felt very well.
i felt the opposite side partha.too much sweat today for me.i messaged vela sir regarding this.
The IMD data showed during September 17-23, rain in north-western states such as Punjab, Haryana and Rajasthan was 182 per cent more than normal, while in central India, it was 126 per cent more. In the east and northeast, rain was 34 per cent higher than normal.
http://www.business-standard.com/article/economy-policy/rain-68-more-than-normal-in-week-ended-sept-23-115092401317_1.html
our PJ and his company has a major role in this project. congrats to them also.
IMD vs Skymet
Skymet gonna predict excess nem again n fail again 😀
that should not happen, let them predict lesser amount.
Watever imd prediction its gonna be opposed by skymet jst for competing sake
doctor can be proud about his operation become success, but the pathetic situation is patient dead, spare a thought for common man who is forced to buy water in the coming months, and farmers who are undone by the nature for the 2nd consecutive year
Actually, you can take it other way too. They had predicted well in advance and asked to plan for short term crops which use less water. So, many would have taken that precaution and have been saved from huge losses. End of the day, nature will have its say!!
pulses are most sowed in this season, is it only enough for consumption?
no. in drought conditions, enough or surplus is not the question. Minimizing the losses and survival is what should be looked at. it is not going to be permanent. Farmers just have to play a waiting game, survive the phase, as all are completely dependent on nature. It is a cycle and conditions will improve. they have to reap benefits when conditions turn favorable..
agree, but a recent prediction by U.S weather experts predicts next year will be Lanina, and almost the same fate will happen next year also,
i believe it is a cycle, but not a definite pattern based cycle!
Weather seems to follow the general principle.. good times will be followed by bad and then back to good. how many years of good followed by bad will not be in our hands..
though they got it right with their predictions .but technically they r wrong. they arrived with the calculations like nw india endup with drought and peninsula getting normal rains.,the result is upside down. but somehow they got that 12%deficit. they expected 1*4=4, but it was 2*2=4.
Pleasant warm weather not much humid felt. Still Cumulus not yet appeared expecting it to appear from WSW in next one hour. NET looking good excellent conditions for TS
But veyil surrinu paduthu.. Feels like dry heat…
Humid is very less
Com to wap
Typical interior weather. Not much hot felt though
East india is devoid of clouds. good sign indeed.
Nothing could escape from moul’s eyes!! Great observation mouli
Actually, you missed him alerting gaje about the nagercoil bus to chennai coming out of the depot!!
oh i missed it!! it looks like even farther storms could be easily spotted from this place like jon said tiruchi storms could b seen if visiblity is too good
Lol
Dry weather begun 100% over East and West Rajasthan, Haryana and Delhi from today. Further Withdrawal line likely in next few days. May be before month end. This will make a big jump i guess.
Mouli, Andaman la system formation theriyudha ? 😛
Lol
Lol, ithu unakkae overa therila :p
OMG, Mysore 84 mm !!
Bazooka ooga booga 🎃 🐍 🐸
enna mandhiram pa ithu?
Ke wap title. 😂😀
Kea*
Cyclone tn ku kondu vara
Happy Bakrid to all..
This is TN pa..not ap
Haha
Early popups near Raichur chitradurga
Another circulation following the upcoming system
Adukoda orrisaku poovm paru
Not much changes seen in UTR,favouring westerly flow in andaman sea and w-nw flow in north andaman sea adj east central bay..
Utr
Upper tropospheric ridge!
You mean easterly flow? 😉
Com to kea wap
flow from east-west is westerly flow isnt?
So if any system forms in andaman sea.. It ll take westerly track than nw right
GFS is taking next system to Odisha
Why is the first system forecast at such a high latitude 😦
Tragedy for Chennai 😳😟😟😟
Na sonnela
then swm may get stalled as this system pulls moisture from bay and feed the areas as they march into interiors
Where are those who forecast an early NEM… Odi poirpanga..
is the new system developing from any remnant from pacific?
A trough from Dujuan is expected to host a circulation off Vietnam coast. That one is travelling to BOB
oh
Expecting active feed from Pacific this year or indigenous systems like last year ??
nan ethum expect pannala .. enga irundalum vandhalum lets welcome!!
bay would b performing on its own!!
sutham.. Ellam S TN thaan pora pokkula 😛
hmmm. lets see. but one or two may enter from s.china sea,atha apadiyae pudichu ilukurom
I have forecasted NEM ONSET on 12-13oct. I’m gonna fail very badly. Let’s see
Nothing can be ruled out 😛
Pochi po
Good morning maddy
It won’t happen, gfs is blabbering! 😛
I will escape and play clash of clans
Lol
Ok then i’ll play angry birds epic!!! 😀
Me also:-P
Heavy rains in South karnataka
chikkayalur – 477 mm
Henur – 146 mm
kundur – 139 mm
peddur – 122 mm
Rangasahalli – 115 mm
Shettihalli – 109 mm
konankunte – 105 mm
47cm in 24hrs?
Wtf 477 ?
477 maybe wrong
Ksnmdc mentioned the same
They will remove it at 2 pm update after verification
Yes pj…….checked other rainfall stations in the vicinity..
It may be faulty reading
ksnmdc daily report:
477is huge!:-o
21W DUJUAN
As of 00:00 UTC Sep 25, 2015:
Location: 19.2°N 132.2°E
Maximum Winds: 65 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 974 m
Its raining very heavily here
4 stations in chamrajnagara recorded above 125 mm
Highest is chikkayalur – 476.50 mm
Upcoming system landfall getting postponed. GFS takes to North Coastal AP/Odisha by 05th october. Also downgraded to D.
Then..:-P
JTWC TRACK
JTWC TRACK!
Intensity map(dujaun)
98W INVEST
As of 00:00 UTC Sep 25, 2015:
Location: 11.0°N 148.4°E
Maximum Winds: 15 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1006 mb
As per @selvanfun:disqus October
NAO forecast becomes Neutral for remaining 2015. That is unfortunate…
Why what’s the problem?
it can lead to normal or failure NEM.
How and what’s the connection?
strong HPA in subtropics can lead to good NEM, but when NAO is neutral then the HPA over that place has possibility to be weaker, this has the chance that when a system forms in Bay can move towards North.
Then if only a cyclone forms only problem! Till then no problem
However nao turns negative in November
It’s only happening in Atlantic ocean
Kelvin once again in Phase, this might increase the SST over West IO.
Good cape and abundant moisture over North central karnataka and West Central AP…
Heavy thunderstorms may slam these areas in next few hours
I just sense, the timing of the first system is so poor that even the next system which form may drift to AP/Odisha, thereby keeping a stranglehold on the NEM onset. Don’t be surprised if onset is after 20th October!
Tiruchengode 10cm
Rayakottah 8cm
Bodi 7cm
Denkanikottah 6cm
OMG 100mm.
Good parched areas have got much needed rains
In fact rains targeted extreme W Areas of TN. Red spot which stuck near Kgiri yesterday had given 8cms to Rayakottah. Even many places in Chamrajanagara, Mysore got good rains!
whether the upcoming system will suck all our moisture (if any) and keep us in summer like situation ?. whether this will delay the onset ?
October Forecast looks terrible for chennai:( but chance are bright for the cricket match between India Vs South Africa to go ahead as per Schedule in chennai
@ Susa
Susa Andaman ena Malaysia la peyura mazhaiyae theriyuthu :p
Initially i had a doubt whether u were taking pics from the tip of a mobile tower 😀
Lol,
No my terrace is 50 feet from the ground
Me too had the same doubt. Who knows he may pass on his mobile to a Tower Service guy for a quick snap!
Rofl
3rd consecutive dog day in this week!!!! Cheers
Tap water was warm at 10am itself :O
ennapa ippadi tension kelaparinga…..IF NEM fails i am relocating for sure…..
Tamilnadu la enga poonalum onnu than
IT thane….kerala cochin illana Pune polamanu iruken oru 2 to 3 years
u can try even Philippines or Mexico
Above mentioned places all west coast they will be experiencing 35 – 37°C during NEM
not at all, winter will set in by october mid – november.. no place in maharashtra will cross 33
coastal areas also will not cross 35
Mumbai will experience 37 – 38 in Nov
i dont think so. let us see this year. 35 should be max for mumbai as winter affects mumbai also partly.
yes chandra you are right…mumbai till winter in dec is very hot till nov mid
atleast i dont want to run behind lotties and tankers which is most likely to happen if NEM fails this time
this year cannot be failure for NEM. let us not depend on models alone.
At the same time we should keep low expectations
yes I have only 60 – 80 CM expectation from NEM. nothing more. if we get that, we should be happy.
Are u alright now Jeetu?..u were sounding very tired in yday’s MBA
Some how…jumping back to normal
I thought u would be limping back..but u r jumping back..great!
Lol
jumping japang
Hi flashu…now a days you’re not in flow
Already after seeing September so far the blog is lying “Low” and at this rate we have to lie flat
continuous blogging is not good for health sir. these low periods are good for us
and also considering to go beneath the ground
That is what August team expecting on 30th to go underground
Lol…we’ve already adapted based on last 3 years nem
So we need to be different this year
6.6 magnitude earthquake hits eastern Indonesia; 39 injured
http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/news/world/66-earthquake-hits-eastern-indonesia-39-injured/article7688512.ece
Still Not even a drop of Cloud at any direction 😦
ippavae paaka arambichitiya?
Ha ha 😛
Cumulus started forming overhead here..few mins back..
At the moment direction less!!
Just look at the direction of Adam from ur MM..u can see low clouds 😀
Cumulus disappeared in a minute
Lonely low clouds struggling to move..
Ok very isolated cumulus over SSW. But adam Is south of Ambattur
chennai,vellore,salem ,tvnmalai,s.ap and western TN are in spotlight!!!
yeah..its very bright outside now
lol. moisture is bit low.. may bounce
Adhuku ozhunga “TN, S.AP are in spotlight” nu potrukalam
His spotlight is different
I am eagerly waiting for TNAU forecast this NEM. It is likely to be out by early part of first week. It had given reasonable forecast last year and came out good.
Reasonable forecast they are going in the last 5 years.
Better than IMD
http://www.monsoondata.org/wx/prec.html
Massive towers by Spot-on Foreca & COLA for tmrw night
How many tmrw !! Really depressed by this nem forecast
NEM illa atchu…Sep forecast
Back to back systems hitting odhisha …Nem vilangana maarithaan…Bayama iruku
None- becoz tomorrow we will find something totally different
The Towering Inferno!
Boss..u r very active 🙂
Normally I take short commercial break btwn 1.30 to 3pm
Appo ennenna advertisements lam paakalam?
Will be doing what APJ has said “Day Dreaming” while taking a nap
I’ve already hinting 26/27 will be a feast and 28sep 8.30am imd readings will thrash Aug
very confident of seeing Sep name on trophy?
I’m hyper confident
hope ur words come true
If happen, 1 filter coffee at thala”s favorite coffee bar
Expecting haily deluge in Sis city today and tmrw
Crystal Clear now!
varum varum..perfect for evening TS..
Friends can anybody tell me the status of retrieving of SWM.were is it right now
Tomorrow
ok
Currently cant able to see any indication of furthur withdrawal!! This adding more fuel
Today the subject is hovering on NEM withdrwal!
sir so soon.
Hello Singhji…how r u? no TS entering Avadi nowadays 😦
abhi nahi.hope it happens soon
Iam good wat abt u
mein acha hain acha hain 😀
good improvement in hindi
Unga profile pic paathaale hindi adhuva vardhu ji
hahaha
He is multilingual
Bahut acha??
Useless SWM,
The weak SWM want to stay in the country. Even 4 months not enough for it to pour. It neither pouring or leaving.
This is creating irritation to us, getting repeated every year.
I don’t see withdrawal till C India before Oct 7
Waiting for upcoming system. This should cross the coast near North Coastal AP and move in WNW direction towards MP, hence once again rain will commence. But till then it is going to be dry over those regions.
atchu ma,
Always remember this Super Star styled Weather punch…
“NEM cyclone naal therinjuta vaazhura naal naragam aayidum..santhoshamthaan vaazhkaye..inniku TS kudukra mazhathaan santhoshame!!!”
Cheers!
more than the day (naal), it is the land fall area which keep our present days as naragam,
ivlo detailed ah pota dialogue la punch poidum..thatz y didn’t mention 😀
You are really a dashing mann..I guess..
Sir..one doubt..adhu enna Soft Engineer? Neenga romba soft’ah? 😀
ha ha,,,Software engineer la ‘Vaaru’ arundhu pocchu boss
Early or on time beginning of SWM withdrawal always delayed the NEM onset.
Here the data for your info.
So you are coming to say NEM begin at right time this year ?
SWM this year delayed by a week
nope SWM withdrawal begun on time this year.
if the upcoming system if moved across the coast & entered C India, again SWM may retrieve for a week. In that case withdrawal extend until 20 October is more likely
but latest forecast of storm surge deviated towards Odisha, the upcoming might take it to WB or Bangla also, in that case the SWM withdrawal will end soon.
Latest model runs take the system to Orissa/WB… System skipping ap
Then system recurving NE towards Bangladesh
first system varuma
Don’t know atchu
jupi..i dont think so very powerful cyclones like hudhud or phailin this year…max it ll be d or dd
that is the indication of NAO towards Neutral from Negative, this has reduced the HPA over subtropics, also AO becoming Negative. This will allow the system to move in North direction.
can’t getter better chance for chennai than this, mod is out of chennai…can expect rainy spell
Still u r expecting swm ts for chennai??
he even had a dream of holding the Hunger Games trophy yday night
Yes Atchu.. It is still much very much on cards . Even better than the NEM Frustration ,these models are pouring now.. 26-28.. I am expecting one violent TS..
Ha ha…just finishing touch is there
Actually u guys are planning to start on the finishing day
That’s more than enough for Aug score
Un pechula rombave thimiru theriyudhe… 😀
Sept TS will be thinking: Innuma intha ooru nambala nambikittu irrukku!! 🙂
Aug team made me like that
Every time models will predict Chennai land-fall and take it to AP/Orissa. This time they all start with AP and take it to Orissa/WB/Bangla… Vaazgha Models… vallaraga Nin Pughazh.. !!!. Chai..
only if its cyclone..weak low can land in SAP/Chennai also..the more the delay in landfall and weak more chances for SAP & more chances of rain in Chennai..its my guess
i feel this is going to happen this time..cyclones may eventually be in waters for more time and die as DD crossing SAP …oru bet
Can anyone share me the link for Goa Radar?
You have to use only Mumbai PPI. Dont think western ghats have any radar..
Northeast monsoon irukka iallaiya , varuma varaatha
kandippa onset mazhai adai mazhaiya irukkum..adhu uruthi
Sir..seekiram ponga..appuram inikku lunch irukaadhu
Normally I have only brunch which I have finished
After this system, Nem onset possible at any time its my view
Last year
Oct 15- Hudhud remants over U.p/Bihar state
Oct17- Nem onset …first day Nungamabakkam received 161mm
One final opportunity for Sep team waiting this weekend..then i will order the printing of Winner’s name on the trophy.
Renigunta popup
Hud hud cyclone rainfall data (imd data)
Rainfall minimum 180 mm
During phailin cuttak taluk got 380 mm.
So hud hud is rainiest
=============================================
Atchutapuram – 527
Gantyada – 383
Yelamanchili – 344
Srungavarapukota – 340
Gurla – 258
Nellimarla – 243
Gajapathinagaram – 222
Gotlam – 200
Seethampet – 196
Pusapatirega – 192
Bondapalle – 192
Garividi – 189
Palakonda – 187
Denkada – 186
Nathvalasa – 185
Akkivaram – 183
Anakapalle – 181
Salur – 181
its 24 hour rainfall period or over all
24 hour
but nisha is rainest than hudhud
yes nisha give more rain
poor hudhud
Imd data vah
Nisha ogni phyaan laila were more rainy
But hudhud is windy almost….No place in Odisha recorded above 250 mm during hud hud
This ECMWF keeps teasing..
North odhisha/south wb
you mean the upcoming one that is gulf of thailand in oct 5
one more to form
Yes.. eexactly
let it recurve further towards Bangla and Myanmar, the SWM progress will not get disturbed, eppudi….
lol.. let it die there.. ithu eppudi
let it form!
cha cha.. It’s on October, y opposition
Same pinch
looks like its going to stay in sea near odisha for couple of days..and cause heavy rains odisha,northern bands to west bengal..eventually 2nd,3rd T20 washout..
Upper winds r n ne can any one chk hpa?
Mid level ridge past 3-4 days
Oh k dint see radar for som dayz
U have successfully de-addicted from weather !
how do you see that in radar?
Wind i m referring
@dasman Yenna partner romba thuru thuru nu irukka creche/school /college /offic leava a??
Mudhiyor Pallikoodatha vittuta partner
You both bunked school today?
Poi thoongunga Ore Uncle…y getting up so early?
It’s going to be 1!
Inikku holiday 🙂 In office???
Not holiday
Mangalyaan, India’s maiden mission to Mars, completed a year in space y’day, “Mars (mission) is expected to last for many years now, because it has gone through solar conjunction also; so we don’t see much of a problem,” according to ISRO Chairman AS Kiran Kumar,
Mars Atlas released yday
Let us wait for a week whether any system is approaching or not. But do not believe in models.
Satelite & radar can be trust than these models.
susa,
upcoming disturbance in gulf of thailand on oct 5…
why cant that to be a easterlies???
It is an easterly pulse.. Depends on where it goes
When we can expect script 2
12:30 AM.. when ECMWF run completes
Susa. When I inquired about the possible developments over bay in the next 10 days, Mr.Ramachandra Rao yesterday mentioned about Gulf of Siam and they are keeping an eye on the development there.
Great to hear they’re keeping tracking of it !!
Susa, they keep an eye on every possible development, it’s just that they don’t discuss or debate with all n sundry for specific reasons.
Wow..Visitors from Norway, France and China..hope they r real n not just IPs…
mouli,enna pa tirupati kodai theriyuthaa? 10km tower