Heavy rain to continue over a few places in Interior Tamil Nadu

The Upper Air Circulation (UAC) over Kerala and South Interior Karnataka which has bought thundershowers across interior parts of TN, is likely to weaken in the next 24 hours. The persisting UAC over Lakshadweep will seed heavy rainfall over isolated places of Kerala, TN & SI Karnataka in the past 24 hours. The low over Bangladesh has weakened and so rainfall is likely to reduce in the coming days over East and NE India.
02. Meteosat5a
Chennai – Weather likely to remain partly cloudy with day temp to touch 35C.

Madurai – Day will remain hot with a max temp of 38C. Rain or thundershowers possible towards evening or night.

Coimbatore – Max Temp likely to be around 34C. Light rain possible.

Vellore – Day temp likely to touch 34C with rain or thundershowers possibility during evening or night.

Tiruchirappalli – Another hot day on the cards with the max temp likely to touch 38C. Rain or thundershowers possible in few areas by evening or night.

2,283 thoughts on “Heavy rain to continue over a few places in Interior Tamil Nadu

  1. Good morning..Many parts of Anthiyur, Bhavani taluks of Erode dt and Mettur Taluk of Salem dt.received good rain last night.

    Further heavy to very heavy rain is expected to Erode, Tirupur , salem ,other parts north western interior districts and Part of delta districts for another 4 days from today.

  2. IMD’s director general Mr.Rathore was disappointed over the “disproportionate” attention given by a section of the media to a private weather company’s forecast of a normal monsoon this year.

      • ha..ha..by looking at the strength of the Elnino and erratic monsoons, still 2015-avoided very serious drought unlike past strong Elnino years (except 1997/1957). Is it or not??

        This was due to favorable QBOONI equation only. Take home message from SWM-2015 is that QBO must start decreasing from august onwards with increasing ONI in 1997 style for good SWM-rains. Unfortunately in 2015, QBO still in increasing mode beyond august. So SWM-2015 will be ending in deficit.

        This theory will be corrected slightly based on 1957,1997 & 2015 (almost good SWM strong Elnino years) versus 1965, 1972, 1982, 1987 (worst SWM strong Elnino years) in terms of QBOONI parameters.

        QBOONI-Elnino years:

    • . At least now the general public and certain sections of the media will trust , have faith in long standing experience, wealth of knowledge, observations and general acumen which IMD possess. Moreover its has become a hobby to ridicule the Govt met dept time and again..

  3. Flash…alert for Nunga/Meena (core Chennai violent TS alert) between 26th & 29th (especially on 27th/28th September)……..No need to worry about missing wide-spread rains for Nunga/Meena in September. But slowly few important parameters turning rain friendly for Core-Chennai from September 26th onwards.

    Especially on September 27th/28th, all must be on high alert due to possibility of violent electric thunderous wide-spread VS-TS that arriving from N/NW. Most places my cross 50 mm within no time. 1 or 2 places may even cross 100 mm. So be careful🙂

      • Unfortunately this system might be flanking in east side of E-W shear zone. Moreover this year all SWM-systems exhibiting NW or N/NW track. so there won’t be any chance for it to cross below CAP.

      • If a system forms SE of srilanka, fair chances for making LF in TN as system following NW/ NNW due to strong westerly phase QBO

      • lol…NNW/NW by westerly QBO is correct. but to make towards TN, then it must travel W/NW. I think its time for you draw your tracking-paints🙂

      • we wanted to finish the match on 29th only to avoid the final ball tension🙂 but real reason is strong pull-effect from WP-typhoon Dujuan will be weakening on 30th drastically. And MJO may move into highly unfavorable phase 7 from one of the more favorable phases 5/6 (these are most favorable phases after 2/3) after 29th September.

  4. Making up the down Linux rly server ‘s huge task.. today came at 1pm to off on emergency and done the job..got👏 from staffs.. anyhow I hv to stay 3 more hrs.to meet higher off..

  5. According to NET clouds should be coming from WSW today. For the past few days due to Southerly winds Cumulus Clouds have started to appear very early in the morning but today it hasn’t appeared still. Hence the clouds movement should be WSW to ENE. If it is as expected there is a chance for TS possibility tonight for North Coastal Tamilnadu

      • Flash…alert for Nunga/Meena (core Chennai violent TS alert) between 26th & 29th (especially on 27th/28th September)……..No need to worry about missing wide-spread rains for Nunga/Meena in September. But slowly few important parameters turning rain friendly for Core-Chennai from September 26th onwards.

        Especially on September 27th/28th, all must be on high alert due to possibility of violent electric thunderous wide-spread VS-TS that arriving from N/NW. Most places my cross 50 mm within no time. 1 or 2 places may even cross 100 mm. So be careful🙂

  6. Upto now September team has been talking and talking. Only bad results until now. What did I say at the beginning. Before you realise it, month will be over. Just 4 more days left and 70 still to get. Highly unlikely. Maximum they will get is 25-40 mm

  7. lol…I had given my flash…alert of heavy rains. till today I had only 2 failures in SWM-2015 season that too happened in September only. My latest flash alert between sep’20-22 too yielded good wide-spread heavy rains of average 25mm for most places on September 20th.

    so be on high alert on 27th/28th.

  8. OMG…rapid intensification for WP-typhoon Dujuan within no time is on the cards. So there will be high chances for it in exhibiting strong pull on SWM-current. So be on high alert on 27th/28th.

    One must not forget that how super-typhoon “Soudelor” from the same place induced very strong pull effect on our SWM-current that resulted in august-4th violent TS over core Chennai.

    Only difference between then & now is style of rainfall inducing mechanism. On august 4th its direct Komen’s synoptic system’s presence at central India that induced the VS-Ts. But for the forecasted VS-TS on 27th/28th, it will be the genesis of east-west shear zone.

    • OMG….still no one confidence in my forecast. I think only direct rains on 27th/28th will make all our friends very happy. Hope it happen soon🙂

  9. Check tis set of images showing how NEM surge moves into s.china sea with a strong winds and slowly into andaman sea, and finally into TN!! It’s in order…consistent ,permanent easterlies along with rains!!

  10. As the four-month monsoon season nears its end, a water and power crisis looms. India’s major reservoirs, whose waters are used for irrigation, electricity generation and for drinking, are mostly emptier than normal..

    Worst situation is in the 31 reservoirs of southern India, which are together filled to only 35 per cent of their capacity. These should normally be filled to 81 per cent of their capacity at this time.Government figures updated until Wednesday show the country’s 91 big reservoirs had a total of 95.313 billion cubic metres of water in them — just about 60 per cent of the total capacity of these reservoirs..The basins of the Ganga, Indus, Narmada, Mahi, Sabarmati, and the rivers of Kutch are carrying normal levels of water. However, the Godavari, Mahanadi and Cauvery, and the west flowing rivers of the South, are highly deficient.
    http://indianexpress.com/article/explained/a-level-of-concern-bad-monsoon-leaves-its-mark-reservoirs-are-emptier-than-normal/

  11. Today morning it was a small surprise for me. After getting ready to office, i will get sweat non stop, even when i sit under the fan, but today, it was sweating lightly and when i sat under the fan the sweat was slowly winding off, also when i walked towards the main road it did not sweat much and felt little comfortable.

    Far better morning, season change over felt very well.

      • doctor can be proud about his operation become success, but the pathetic situation is patient dead, spare a thought for common man who is forced to buy water in the coming months, and farmers who are undone by the nature for the 2nd consecutive year

      • Actually, you can take it other way too. They had predicted well in advance and asked to plan for short term crops which use less water. So, many would have taken that precaution and have been saved from huge losses. End of the day, nature will have its say!!

      • no. in drought conditions, enough or surplus is not the question. Minimizing the losses and survival is what should be looked at. it is not going to be permanent. Farmers just have to play a waiting game, survive the phase, as all are completely dependent on nature. It is a cycle and conditions will improve. they have to reap benefits when conditions turn favorable..

      • agree, but a recent prediction by U.S weather experts predicts next year will be Lanina, and almost the same fate will happen next year also,

      • i believe it is a cycle, but not a definite pattern based cycle!

        Weather seems to follow the general principle.. good times will be followed by bad and then back to good. how many years of good followed by bad will not be in our hands..

      • though they got it right with their predictions .but technically they r wrong. they arrived with the calculations like nw india endup with drought and peninsula getting normal rains.,the result is upside down. but somehow they got that 12%deficit. they expected 1*4=4, but it was 2*2=4.

  12. Pleasant warm weather not much humid felt. Still Cumulus not yet appeared expecting it to appear from WSW in next one hour. NET looking good excellent conditions for TS

  13. Dry weather begun 100% over East and West Rajasthan, Haryana and Delhi from today. Further Withdrawal line likely in next few days. May be before month end. This will make a big jump i guess.

  14. Heavy rains in South karnataka

    chikkayalur – 477 mm
    Henur – 146 mm
    kundur – 139 mm
    peddur – 122 mm
    Rangasahalli – 115 mm
    Shettihalli – 109 mm
    konankunte – 105 mm

  15. Good cape and abundant moisture over North central karnataka and West Central AP…
    Heavy thunderstorms may slam these areas in next few hours

  16. I just sense, the timing of the first system is so poor that even the next system which form may drift to AP/Odisha, thereby keeping a stranglehold on the NEM onset. Don’t be surprised if onset is after 20th October!

      • In fact rains targeted extreme W Areas of TN. Red spot which stuck near Kgiri yesterday had given 8cms to Rayakottah. Even many places in Chamrajanagara, Mysore got good rains!

  17. whether the upcoming system will suck all our moisture (if any) and keep us in summer like situation ?. whether this will delay the onset ?

  18. October Forecast looks terrible for chennai:( but chance are bright for the cricket match between India Vs South Africa to go ahead as per Schedule in chennai

  19. Useless SWM,

    The weak SWM want to stay in the country. Even 4 months not enough for it to pour. It neither pouring or leaving.
    This is creating irritation to us, getting repeated every year.

  20. atchu ma,

    Always remember this Super Star styled Weather punch…

    “NEM cyclone naal therinjuta vaazhura naal naragam aayidum..santhoshamthaan vaazhkaye..inniku TS kudukra mazhathaan santhoshame!!!”

    Cheers!

  21. Every time models will predict Chennai land-fall and take it to AP/Orissa. This time they all start with AP and take it to Orissa/WB/Bangla… Vaazgha Models… vallaraga Nin Pughazh.. !!!. Chai..

    • only if its cyclone..weak low can land in SAP/Chennai also..the more the delay in landfall and weak more chances for SAP & more chances of rain in Chennai..its my guess

      • i feel this is going to happen this time..cyclones may eventually be in waters for more time and die as DD crossing SAP …oru bet

  22. After this system, Nem onset possible at any time its my view

    Last year
    Oct 15- Hudhud remants over U.p/Bihar state
    Oct17- Nem onset …first day Nungamabakkam received 161mm

  23. One final opportunity for Sep team waiting this weekend..then i will order the printing of Winner’s name on the trophy.

  24. Hud hud cyclone rainfall data (imd data)
    Rainfall minimum 180 mm
    During phailin cuttak taluk got 380 mm.
    So hud hud is rainiest

    =============================================
    Atchutapuram – 527
    Gantyada – 383
    Yelamanchili – 344
    Srungavarapukota – 340
    Gurla – 258
    Nellimarla – 243
    Gajapathinagaram – 222
    Gotlam – 200
    Seethampet – 196
    Pusapatirega – 192
    Bondapalle – 192
    Garividi – 189
    Palakonda – 187
    Denkada – 186
    Nathvalasa – 185
    Akkivaram – 183
    Anakapalle – 181
    Salur – 181

  25. Mangalyaan, India’s maiden mission to Mars, completed a year in space y’day, “Mars (mission) is expected to last for many years now, because it has gone through solar conjunction also; so we don’t see much of a problem,” according to ISRO Chairman AS Kiran Kumar,

  26. Let us wait for a week whether any system is approaching or not. But do not believe in models.
    Satelite & radar can be trust than these models.

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