Rainfall likely to increase over TN

The South West Monsoon has been vigorous over parts of J&K and some more parts of Western Himalayan region in association with an upper air Cyclonic circulation and a Western disturbance over the past 24 hours. Towards the Eastern Himalayas, a Low Pressure area seen close to North Bangladesh will trigger heavy to very heavy rains over parts of NE India and East India. In the south, an upper air cyclonic circulation seen over TN will increase the rainfall activity in the state, mainly the interiors, over the next few days.

image

Chennai to see a partly cloudy day with a day time maximum temperature settling close to 34-35 C. Isolated rains likely in some parts of the city and its outskirts.

Vellore will stay warm and maximum temperature would stay close to 35 C. Rain/T’Showers may occur in some isolated parts.

Coimbatore will continue to stay  hot going by its standards with a day time maximum close to 34 C.

Madurai will have to bear another hot day with maximum settling close to 38 C. Thunderstorms possible towards late in the afternoon/evening.

Trichy will continue to swelter under the heat  with mercury levels touching 38 C.

1,193 thoughts on “Rainfall likely to increase over TN

  1. Monsoon deficit at 12% equals Met forecast-The overall rain deficit for the country as a whole has reduced to 12 per cent, exactly in line with the assessment of the India Met Department made in its long-range monsoon forecast earlier this season. – IMD. @GTS remember we mentioned this couple of days back that it will hover around 10-12 per cent. By that time SWM completely withdrawn it may be around 10%

  2. Another system likely to form over Lakshadweep by 29th. We need to wait and see whether this one becoming strong system or weakening due to strengthening of Bay system. Bay system might pull the westerly winds from Arabian Sea.

  3. Raind moderately in coimbatore…premonsoon thunderstrom season startd here 😍was waiting fr a long time to see these intense thundrstroms

  4. Rainy days going to start for kerala..west TN east and central karnataka including western parts of Anantapur kurnool from today

    More chances for Tumkur Koppala Bangalore

  5. Tonight Thunderstorms will be very intense especially over south interior and western tamilnadu. North Tamilnadu will see some moderate to heavy TS. Isolated chances for coastal tamilnadu.

  6. TS to pickup gradually for interiors as conditions remains very very fav along eastern ghats and also few areas along districts of erode,namakkal,karur,tiruchi ..Watchout for severe ts around chinna salem,attur,kallakurichi as cape values exceeding 3500j/kg in small packets..

  7. North Interior Tamil Nadu (Vellore, Dharmapuri & Krishnagiri) gets surprise heavy rains ending 8.30 am on 23.09.2015
    ========================================
    A cyclonic circulation extending upto 2.1 kms a.s.l. lies over Tamil Nadu and neighbourhood.

    in mm

    Tirupathur Agro – 99
    Jolarpet – 74
    Pochampalli – 63
    Kalrayanhills – 58
    Natrampalli – 56
    Kandhili – 53
    Tirupattur – 50
    Penucondapuram – 45
    Yercaud – 45
    Erumaipatti – 45
    Tirupathur Pto – 44
    Veppanapalli – 42
    Uthangarai – 40
    Kondampatti – 37
    Mangalapuram – 30
    Vazhapadi – 25
    Peddanaickenpalayam – 21
    Ayodhiyapattinam – 21
    Pappireddipatti – 20
    Usilampatti – 18
    Rayakottah – 17
    Barur – 16
    Salem – 16
    Namagiripet – 11
    Vaniaymbadi – 10
    Palacode – 9
    Krishnagiri – 8
    Periyakulam – 8
    Marandahalli – 8
    Shoolagiri – 7
    Kadavur – 7
    Harur – 6
    Attur – 6
    Sendamangalam – 6
    Vaiyampatty – 5
    Eravangalar – 5

  8. conditions looking perfect isnt it…North west lot of dry air which will penettrate down soon….eastern indian coasts as usual busy…raining in interiror TN, SI KTK…etc. which is very much chararacteresics of Sep before NEM…we have the Pre NEM humidity in chennai as well…lets have an early NEM…will take the Auspicious day EID for startign the NEM prayers…

  9. The upcoming system, according to GFS is likely to be embedded in a trough. After it makes landfall, a smaller circulation could form at the southern end of the trough and ignite some easterly rains in TN for a brief period of 1-2 days.. But a high pressure would soon follow suit

  10. As said earlier, TN might see widespread thunderstorms today, particularly in C and S TN as Sel indicated!! Popups already started in S AP as well😛

    • PhotoGuruji — Amazing Photos!
      We will try to come close by shooting NEM 2015 in her full glory after the 27th Sept field trip.

  11. I am traveling to sholingar(arakonnam today )…I am going today and will return by Saturday and will come to meet on Sunday..bye guyzz..will come online here using net card!

  12. I remember since childhood, that during September Chennai will be a spectator most of the days. I use to see West in the evening and night, most of the days TS would have formed, can see the lightning in the night, but due to unfavourable wind direction it will move towards North direction approx. We will get strong Thunderstorm with huge downpour in lesser days, may be in one or two days we might receive 13 CM rainfall, but most of the days we are spectators.

    Chennai in September – Rainy days are less, but intensity on those days will be high.

  13. I need conditions like this to prevail in Kurnool…
    Cape 6840 J/kg
    If in case a thunderstorm develops in these conditions it may jeoparadise anything on its way

  14. I am expecting a strong system after October 20th, it coincides with chennai match on 22nd. MJO strengthening begins during that time. Hence they can abandon that match straight away.

    We had this experience in the past, scheduling during NEM season is vulnerable, when are they going to learn???

  15. On July 25, 2007, Winnipeg had a calculated SBCAPE of about 10,000 J/kg ..

    Iam not sure whether this is the highest cape value ever recorded on the earth till now

  16. IMD Midday Report

    The upper air cyclonic circulation over Gulf of Siam & neighbourhood has become
    less marked.
    ♦ The upper air cyclonic circulation over interior Tamilnadu and adjoining areas of South
    Interior Karnataka & Kerala has become less marked.

  17. HI friends, Wishing you all a very Happy Bakrid.
    May this Eid fill your life with joy, Happiness and prosperity. EID MUBARAK..

  18. The smoke which was seen around indonesia in sat image tday was due to forest fire and as usual experts says its due to elnino!!

  19. Chennai is not ready for NEM rains. Flooding possible due to inactive
    corporation. Newly laid railings along the platforms backfires. It is a big setback.

    Guys, please take extra care during this NEM while going on the roads. Lots of stupidity done in laying this railings.

    http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/chennai/Chennai-Pavement-turns-unusable-as-railing-plan-backfires/articleshow/49068118.cms?intenttarget=no&utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=Top_Headlines

  20. Hello Kea Team..

    Was pleasure meeting Mr.Ramachandra Rao ,Dir, Cyclone Warning centre. today at Kailashgiri, Doppler Radar centre. Visakhapatnam.
    Been insisting him to share his experience of tracking a VSCS (hudhud) for a while now. He took some time and was kind enough to share it today. He had prepared the report yesterday night as I was keen to get it soon before the 1st anniversary of the system.
    He also took some time today morning at the Doppler Radar centre by explaining the mechanism of it. Was thrilled to see the actual monster of a scientific marvel. He patiently explained the main “heart of the Doppler Radar”.for about 15 minutes.
    Unfortunately. I found it too difficult to understand as the mechanism behind it seems to be mind blowing and too technical.
    Hope you all would enjoy reading it.

    Mr.Ramachandra Rao has narrated this exclusively for our Kea weather blog .

    Regards

    Shiva. (Novak Nole).

    FIRST ANNIVERSARY OF ‘HUDHUD’ CYCLONE
    The October 12 is approaching and with the memories of VSCS HUDHUD which made its landfall over Visakhapatnam on 12th around 1230 hours.
    In 2013 in the month of October a cyclonic storm PHAILIN crossed the east coast at Gopalpur of Oddisa state on 12th. There was no thought that exactly in one year another cyclone will hit the east coast at Visakhapatnam on the same day in 2014.
    The preparations started as usual in September (this exercise will be done regularly twice in a year in the months of March and September) like arranging the lectures on various topics refreshing the procedures to be followed in tracking and forecasting the cyclonic storms originating in bay of Bengal, issuing letters to government organizations like CPWD, AIR, BSNL, APSEB etc. for their cooperation during cyclone, updating the telephone, FAX numbers f chief secretory, commissioner, disaster management, collectors of all coastal districts of Andhra Pradesh.
    Generally no leaves are granted to the staff during the cyclone period and I rarely took the leave in Oct-Nov. But due to some personal problems I was on leave and out of station during first week of October assuring the DDGM, RMC, Chennai I will join the duty in case of any indications of disturbance. I checked the likely cyclo genesis before leaving the station with the knowledge that no activity is likely till I return. I was in touch with the office and checking the web site for the updates. There was a possibility of forming a low pressure area by 6/7th. I returned to the station on 6th morning and a low formed in BOB. The phone calls started coming immediately after declaring the low from the general public print and electronic media and also from collectors. By 7th it became depression and it is heading toward north Andhra coast. The issue of messages commenced. The initial land fall estimated to be between Visakhapatnam and Paradeep. However by 8th it became clear that it will make land fall near Visakhapatnam.
    The DWR gave problem during the end of September. One power supply unit is defective. The spare unit is to be obtained from other radar unit from Machilipatnam. HQ was requested to send the unit early in view of the cyclone forming over BOB. The unit came and DWR made operational by seventh which was big relief to me as it will be very important for tracking the cyclone. Its input given very valuable information of the cyclone like position, direction of movement, wind speeds etc.
    The warning messages disseminated through print, electronic media as well as through AIR, in addition to the concerned state government officials. The honorable chief minister of Andhra Pradesh personally called several times during the cyclone for regular updates. I attended video conference twice at Visakhapatnam collector’s office to brief the dangers associated with cyclone HUDHUD.
    The warning messages contained the information of strong gale force winds, heavy rain fall, damages to electric and communication poles/towers etc. It was mentioned that winds will start from 11th A/N night and rain fall from night. Many took it lightly. Even my brothers commented that ‘they will tell like that only. We went for walk without umbrella’. The newspapers published the statements from retired staff and others that no cyclone will come to Visakhapatnam it goes either to oddisa or to east Godavari. And also that Eastern Ghats will protect from winds. A TV reporter questioned me the same that there is no record of cyclone hitting Visakhapatnam while taking byte on cyclone. I got irritated as I faced the same question from many reporters and answered saying that don’t go by history and be prepared to face the cyclone coming towards Visakhapatnam.
    The winds started picking up from A/N of 11th and by evening it became difficult to move around. A lady employee has to come by auto as it was not possible to drive two wheeler. I scolded her for taking the risk of moving around in such a strong winds but I felt very happy that she came for duty leaving a kid back home. All the staff that came for duty was asked to continue as there would be lot work to be done during next 24/36 hours.
    As the day progressed the wind speed increased and rain started. Most of the communication lines were down by the night. There is no to communicate with my wife as telephone line at house is down and also no electricity. No proper food in the night for the staff in the office that night and also next day and next day that is 13th. I could not do anything as there were no shops/hotels.
    By 12th morning the situation became worse. There is no let up from winds and rain. All transportation stopped. No way to go out and get something to eat and drink. Black Tea could be had as generator back up is there for the office. The wind became so strong that going out had become hazardous. All electronic media reporters thronged to the office for getting latest updates. Few fell and injured themselves. Mobile telephone services down by 1000 IST. Many windows and doors of office are blown away. The land lines of BSNL and broad band worked till night enabling us to render the services. The water is everywhere in the office. Communication room doors are kept in place by holing them close by two persons. There are two staff members at dolphin’s nose. The last communication from them is on the night of 11th that the situation is very bad. No lights. Many trees fallen. I was very much worried about their safety.
    By 12th morning my mind has gone blank. I was doing the work automatically but I was in no proper frame of mind as I was worrying about my wife and unable to do anything to console the staff crying about their families at home. By 1100 IST the DWR has to be shut down as all windows blown off and water entered the radar control room.
    There was a brief relief from 1230/1245 to 1330/1345 from rain and wind. Many trees in the office were fallen. Water is everywhere. Made small was effort to clean. It is known that severe weather will start after lull and it started around 1400 IST. The staff who went to quarters not reported back. The worry increased about their and their family. The wind and rain continued till night. The BSNL kept their services till night so that we can disseminate the warning messages. By 2130 it also stopped.
    We could move around little bit on 13th morning. The situation gave a lot of pain. There is no upright trees that could be seen. Whatever trees standing upright are without leaves. The roads have become mess with fallen trees, electric poles, cables etc.
    The only satisfaction is that loss of human life was minimal.

    Thank you.

    K.Ramachandra Rao,Sc-D
    Cyclone warning Centre,
    India Meteorological Department
    Visakhapatnam.

  21. Forecast looks bleak!!! NEM may not set bfore oct 15th if we go by the recent outlook.. hope we see some changes in future model runs!!

  22. Thanks Shiva for sharing that wonderful live experience. When i was reading through i was imagining the situation at that time. During the night in office, nothing can be seen outside as the visibility will be ZERO due to smashing and rain and winds and also the waving trees, OMG, cannot imagine. One need to be gutsy at that time to face that brunt. Hats off to the employees of IMD Vizag, these are tough times in their life, the unbelievable time would be that they could not contact their family members right at home for many hours, they do not know what happened to them, how the nerves would be, the beat of the heat would be high and the mind will praying for them. That is difficult time.

    One more thing is that the East Coast of India is more vulnerable and prone to natural disasters, hence IMD should think of installing more Radar along the coromandel coast, more back up offices to be created by centralizing the server in different places. If one gone out of teleconnection, another one will act. Hence no loss of data or reports. This is very much needy at this time.

    • Thanks Paartha. He was so forthcoming and he even apologized for the report getting delayed due to his busy official commitments.

Please restrict Comments to Weather only

Please log in using one of these methods to post your comment:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s