TN to remain mostly dry for the next 2 days

Yesterday’s Low pressure area (LPA) over Odisha now lies over Jharkhand and its adjoining areas of Bihar and Gangetic WB. This weakening system will bring heavy to very heavy rainfall for Sub-Himalayan regions of Bihar and WB in the next 24-48 hours, while Gangetic WB would get isolated heavy falls during the same period. There is also another weakening LPA over Saurashtra which will produce heavy rains over Rajasthan, Punjab, Haryana and Delhi in the coming days. North TN will be dry as a high pressure area is expected to dominate the weather events in the southern peninsula till Thursday whereas South TN may get some isolated thunderstorms. There would be an increase in rainfall activity over TN by the end of this week.

02. Meteosat5

Chennai: Chennai will see a hot day with max temperature moving close to 37C.

Madurai: There seem to be no respite from the heat with max temperature expected to stay 39-40C. Possibility of rain increases by middle of this week.

Coimbatore: Max temperature will be around 34C. Chance of rain is less.

Vellore: Dry weather with max temperature moving around 36C.

Trichy: City will continue to remain hot with max temperature reaching 39C.

1,183 thoughts on “TN to remain mostly dry for the next 2 days

    • This cyclonic storm will serve as junction system, which most of our friends doesn’t expected duo evolution of Elnino with +ve IOD. If the forecasted cyclone forms then mine (& guest11k’s) earlier assumption of active BOB during NEM-season that takes shape based on “relatively weak +ve IOD with respect to strong ONI index”.

      • I would like to know the reason from our friends (especially Partha🙂 about the forecasted cyclonic storm formation during October 1st week that too when IOD crossed above +1.0 with strengthening of ONI index.

  1. Rao,

    Flash News,

    As per GFS, The upcoming UAC by 30th is likely to become a Storm and cross Odisha coast by 01st. Above 15N latitude a storm in bay is possible during Positive IOD. ELNINO has nothing to do with it. However this is an initial report, we need to wait and see.

  2. Massive Rains in mm in Chennai and surrounding Region, ending 8.30 am on 21.09.2015
    ===========================
    Tiruttani – 130 mm
    Tiruttani PTO – 106
    Arakonnam – 91
    DGP Office Marina Beach – 50
    Kadambathur (Near Tiruvallur) – 48
    Sathayabama University – 44
    Tiruvallur – 38
    Poondi Lake – 36
    Ponneri – 34
    Poonamalle – 23
    Meenambakkam – 23
    Nungambakkam – 22
    Tambaram – 22
    Kolapakkam (near Chennai AP) – 21
    Tharamani – 20
    Anna University – 20
    Ambattur – 14
    Sriperumbudur – 13
    Madhavaram – 12
    Ennore – 11
    Cholavaram Lake – 11
    Puzhal – 9
    Redhills Lake – 9
    Chembarabakkam Lake – 8
    Tamaraipakkam – 8
    Minjur – 6
    Thiruporur (near Kelambakkam) – 6
    Avadi – 6

  3. Rao, What GFS is showing is other end LPA near Andaman developing into a system and moving to Odisha. But what happens to TN end of the LPA.

    E-W shear zone has two systems, one will always develop into full fledged system

  4. PJ,

    The TN end LOW is a trough i believe, the only system develops as per GFS is on 29th over North of Andaman Islands and becoming strong system by 30th and crossing Odisha by 01st. This is very very fast, it cannot happen i believe. The same kind of forecast given during 1st Week of September from 17th to 20th, but only LOW has developed over Bay. Hence this forecast too will be corrected i believe. It cannot form on 29th and cross Odisha coast by 01st, in just 2 days?

  5. As per GFS forecast that upcoming system forming on 29th and crossing coast on 01st, in just 2 days time, that is too fast, that is not possible. The same type of forecast given from 17th to 20th by GFS before 10th September, then in reality only LOW formed. Hence we need to wait, GFS might again downgrade it to a LOW.

  6. This year’s monsoon deficiency, likely to be around 13-14 per cent, could be listed among the five worst years in terms of rainfall, officials from the India Meteorological Department (IMD) in Pune said.
    In the last 40 years, the highest rainfall deficiency was recorded in drought years 2009 (21.8 per cent), 2002 (19.2 per cent), 1987 (19.4 per cent), 1979/(19 per cent) and in 1982 (14.5 per cent), said IMD officials.
    http://indianexpress.com/article/cities/mumbai/this-monsoon-among-worst-five-in-40-years

  7. Sunspot , I have seen your comments abt me regarding hills visibility from here. Did u believe it or not?
    If u want I can repost the pics

  8. Here you go, the dry air over TN completely occupied, also for entire south.
    Also dry air coming in from Pakistan, entered the tip of West Rajasthan. This one pushing the WD toward J&K, and it will pour heavy rain over the state.

  9. Jupi,

    There is no forecast of MJO or ER wave during first half of October, we might see some suppressed mode of ER and Neutral MJO over Indian Ocean basin. Hence the pulse might be for NEM. I mean by second week.

    • Actually this image will tell us the relative altitude and spatial scales. 12 km altitude is relatively very less to the horizontal scale

  10. Weekly Tropical Climate Note issued 22 September 2015

    Late-season burst of dry weather over northern Australia
    – Dry and sunny conditions continue over most of northern Australia
    – Fresh southeasterly winds are generating low humidity and lessening the chance of late dry-season rainfall

    Withdrawal of the southwest Indian monsoon; drought in Papua New Guinea
    – A late-season burst of monsoon rainfall is currently affecting northern and central parts of India
    – Drought and widespread frosts have severely affected crop production and water supplies in parts of Papua New Guinea

    Madden-Julian Oscillation remains weak; tropical cyclone activity continues in the Pacific
    – Climate models forecast the MJO signal to strengthen slightly and move over the western Pacific Ocean during the next two weeks
    – Three tropical systems are currently active over the Pacific Ocean
    – A tropical depression has the potential to develop into a strong typhoon and impact southern Japan this week

    El Niño remains strong; further warming of Pacific and Indian Oceans
    – Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the tropical Pacific Ocean have risen further this week
    – Indian Ocean SSTs are continuing to have a strong influence on Australian climate

  11. ITCZ here is clearly down in the southern Hemisphere , and the seasonal High Pressure Areas are sitting firm over Bay and Arabian Sea ..small cloud patches over subcontinent.

  12. Who is still in September team?
    Yesterday RsRao wasn’t too confident, today Susa isn’t too sure. He is living in hope.
    Guess PJ is lone man remaining

  13. @ Gokul tbm
    Please save something for late night session, don’t get exhausted soon like bay in swm which give lull activity in nem

  14. Tropical and Subtropical interaction persists over East and Central India and extends upto MTC, travelling along with MJO in Phase 4. The tropical storm in West Pacific to strengthen again. The real time OLR over West Pacific is strongly negative.

  15. This time Dr.rsrao has agreed to teach us about 2d and 3d gyric model when lpa forms and he can possibly elaborate the LF of the system according to mjo phases…exciting days ahead

  16. Why u guys always think premonsoon system a villian???
    No Not at all…Its very good sign for Strong Nem…
    Infact if we see any premonsoon system, it ll trigger strong easterlies during onset
    2013 onset lpa but unluckly it went slight north ,
    2014 too we had strong onset with trough near srilanka,,,
    Dont scare of any premonsoon systems…

    • Well said..Any system comes after our monsoon sets in & moves to north..it will disturb our east waves..pre-monsoon sys will trigger our monsoon..but the dates are imp..it should form b4 10th & should move away..

  17. Bloggers,

    Dont get scared, the upcoming system in Bay is a trigger of NEM. Think of the past years, we had HUDHUD and Phailin during 2nd week of October, hence NEM begun only after 15th October, however this time this system forms early by September end itself and crossing Indian coast by 02nd itself, this should bring NEM winds later in the second week and this system might bring down the monsoon axis.

  18. Frequent ground frost occurs in winter in Lambasingi…But it wont snow..
    Hails are also very common in Lambasingi in april may months.

    2015 least temperature in Lammasingi stands at -1.7 degrees in january

    Least ever recorded was between -3 and -2

  19. Above normal Nem likely
    During spring (February-March-April) even if one of the Southern states (Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka and Kerala) receives above average rain, NEM would be more than average

  20. A quick blast from the past….2013 highlights…MADI,HELEN
    Sometimes it reminds me , “Is this Bay of Bengal ??”
    And are we so near and yet so far on most occasions…
    The first image is of MADI, when it had a hot tower in its eye-wall, just hours before the system was more deteriorating …

  21. Dear Keabloggers
    122 Hours to go for the Kea Photography Field Trip.

    To reconfirm

    Date: Sunday,27th Sept 2015
    Place:Guindy National Park
    Time: 3pm
    Agenda:
    3 to 3.30pm- Recap of Theory
    3.30 to 5pm– Field Trip
    5 to 5.30pm- Snacks and discussions of the upcoming bumper NEM 2015.

    What to Bring:
    1.Camera is preferable.If not possible,bring your mobile phones with camera.if not,just come to mingle and tingle.

    2.Umbrella, if you are part of the Sept Team!

    What not to do between 3 and 5pm ( you can do all these after 5pm)
    1.Looking at Radar every 5mins
    2.Crosstalks on SWM,NEM
    3.Aug Vs Sept debates
    4.Asking about the 5pm menu
    5.Theorizing SWM and NEM 2016
    6.GFS vs ECMWF debates
    7.Elnino / IOD analyses

    What do you gain apart from Photography Gyan
    This is the most important part.We will invite 3 of your best monsoon photos to be sent to us and Srivats will choose the top 3 bloggers who will be honoured at a special post-nem celebrations ( we will be celebrating the surplus nem 2015).

    Pls write to keabloggers@gmail.com if you have queries.

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