Low Pressure to intensify rains for South Odisha and North AP

The Low Pressure off the coast of Odisha and North AP has strengthened into a Well-marked Low pressure. Further strengthening of the system is limited due to interaction with the land. This system will move slowly in a W-NW direction bringing widespread heavy to very heavy rainfall to Odisha, North AP, Telangana and Chhattisgarh with spillage into MP as well. Coastal parts of Maharashtra and Karnataka will also receive heavy rainfall due to moisture incursion from Arabian Sea caused by the Bay system. Surface winds will be strong along the South Odisha and North AP coastline.

Thunderstorms are likely for north coastal TN while rest of TN will remain dry.
02. Meteosat5a6

Chennai: City will see max temperature between 36-37C with a chance of thunderstorms during evening/night.

Madurai: City will continue to remain hot with max temperature around 37C.

Coimbatore: Hot day awaits city with max temperature reaching 33-34C.There is a possibility of thundershowers in evening/night.

Vellore: City will witness max temperature reaching 36C.

Trichy: No respite from heat with max temperature staying close to 39C.

1,012 thoughts on “Low Pressure to intensify rains for South Odisha and North AP

  1. Happy Birthday Velayudham Sir. !!!

    May your birthday and every day be filled with the warmth of sunshine, the happiness of smiles, the sounds of laughter, the feeling of love and the sharing of good cheer.

    On this special day, i wish you all the very best, all the joy you can ever have and may you be blessed abundantly today, tomorrow and the days to come! May you have a fantastic birthday and many more to come… HAPPY BIRTHDAY!!!!

    I Hope You Have An Amazing Day Because You Are Amazing! Thinking of you on your birthday, and wishing you all the best! I hope it is as fantastic as you are, you deserve the best and nothing less.

    HAPPY BIRTHDAY!!!!

  2. I got a wild dream with SWM getting reactivated and the clouds covering entire rajasthan. relieved to see that it is only dream.

    • Sure shot sep will end with some heavy intense spells over Tamilnadu. 17 – 20th sep looks good for Chennai and by 23rd UAC over GOM expected to form as per models forecast which will give good rains to south and interior Tamilnadu

  3. PJ,

    Both real time convection (-ve OLR) and 850 hpa OLR exactly matching as per CFS. It may or may not rain if OLR becomes -ve (negative OLR may also indicates about clouding without rains).

    I am not aware that these 850 hpa OLRs (on 7th & 12th September) have been modified by CFS from the forecasted ones based on real-time convection or not??

    (1) 7th September:
    7th real-time convection: http://s28.postimg.org/9gnd1kvjx/7th_sep.jpg
    7th 850 hpa OLR: http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/macritch/realtime/horizmaps/filtered/map_4.gif

    (2) 12th September:
    12th real-time convection: http://s7.postimg.org/byevi4ynv/12th_sep.jpg
    12th 850 hpa OLR: http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/macritch/realtime/horizmaps/filtered/map_9.gif

      • Yes PJ. But next time onwards its better to save the forecasted ones. For example as per latest forecast, CFS 850 hpa OLR indicating that a strong convection (might be a system) crossing at NAP by mid-October. Also by last week of October very strong convection crossing at Bangladesh. So we need to save these forecasts to know about whether the forecast will keep on changing or to cross check with future real-time incidents. I will save those October 850 hpa OLRs today itself in JPG format.

  4. As a spectator i expected a spicy contest betwn the 2 teams, but so far half the match over in the 2nd innings, still the match is going one side, only one big score so far in the 2nd innings, but experts commentators like P.J, Chandra, and others pinning hope on the remaining tail enders, i sincerely hope their expectations got fulfilled and the match ends in a super thriller,

    • Shri – August team is playing with a heavy spinner called positive IOD slowing us down. But we have a ‘Thani Oruvan’ guy called PJ..who will help us to win in the last over🙂

      • when comes to rains for Chennai, i always believe P.J first, hence i’m also don’t have any doubt about 2nd fortnight rains,
        in between leaving apart all these things Chennai grips in to water scarcity, the remaining swm, and the up coming nem should give us more rains, else it is very scary to think about the up coming months from Jan next year

  5. In what could bring respite for people in Pune district that has recorded deficient rainfall this monsoon, authorities plan to undertake cloud-seeding in parched areas from Wednesday.
    “Moisture-laden clouds will be cloud-seeded,” stated an advisory issued by India Meteorological Department and Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM) based in Pune.
    Expected to cover the parched areas of the district like Junnar, Khed, Ambegaon, Maval, Mulshi and Bhor. However, it will all depend on the cloud availability in these areas,”
    After having achieved success in Aurangabad, Beed, Latur and Osmanabad, where the Met department recorded 1,400 mm of rainfall in a period of 25 days, the operations that commenced there on August 4 will now shift to Western Ghats.
    So far, cloud-seeding operations have been conducted for over 20 days in the Aurangabad region.
    http://indianexpress.com/article/cities/pune/cloud-seeding-for-pune-districts-catchment-areas-starts-today/

  6. Seems these strong winds may be due to combination of several factors, the wind surge associated with the LOW, local land breeze..etc.,

  7. Bloggers expecting that SWM forecast might be reversed and will be back to normal, however NEM likely to exceed the forecasts given. Conditions are suitable for above normal NEM this year. We will never get better conditions like this. Basin wide warming will encourage more LOW pressures over Southern part of Bay. Either it sets in early or normal date, NEM will be promising this time.

  8. Raichur rainfall in 2009
    January – 0 mm
    February – 0 mm
    March – 2.7 mm
    April – 3.8 mm
    May – 45.1 mm
    June – 67 mm
    July – 13.4 mm
    August – 128 mm
    September – 220.5 mm
    October -700.1 mm
    November – 61.6 mm
    December – 5.7 mm

    TOtal rain – 1245 mm

  9. Very high Intensity rains predicted by GFS tomorrow. Lets see how it turns out. Tomorrow. The LPA will be perpendicularly right over Chennai lattitude.

  10. 1997 had the following conditions in place during NEM:
    ———————————————————————-
    1) The upper Tropospheric STR was in the lower latitudes with a seasonal averaged mean position close to 15 N latitude. This is normal with El Nino conditions in place. This would have favored even intense Cyclones in a general Westerly/WNW direction towards TN and S.AP. But except for 2 systems in November, the season did not see any further storms. And the two systems in November had been less intense and had generally tracked westwards inside the equatorial Trough. When looked at the genesis locations, one had formed near Sri Lanka and GOM region, which is very low in latitude and was embedded and had floated up from the low lat. equatorial trough. The other storm had it’s genesis in a region close to equatorial Indian ocean just south of Arabian Sea. This is again no wonder, with an equatorial trough placed low in lat and positive IOD conditions influencing as well.

    2)So rains from the above mentioned systems have at the max. could have favored only S.TN. But, when we look at the seasonal rain max. zones, we have one maxima near S.TN and Sri Lanka , and an other maxima close to N.TN and extreme S.AP coast inclusive of Chennai region. This maxima near Chennai, was possibly because of the following reasons. The seasonal 850 mb winds were stronger easterlies near N.TN coast, and had a similar strong counterpart in the extreme western Indian Ocean around the same latitude. The strong winds here could have occurred because of the reason that, the seasonal anticyclone was placed north of Chennai latitude around Tropic of Cancer around the same longitude, and to the south of Chennai we had calm lower level winds associated to the equatorial trough. Chennai region located at this junction had a stronger pressure gradient and thus stronger lower level winds. One more favorable condition was the seasonal positive vorticity had stayed close to TN coast in SW bay. This horizontal shear could have been favorable for intense Boundary layer convergence(Ekman layer pumping), leading to more cloudiness and rains along the coast.

    So , in my opinion these could have been the possible scenarios behind excess rains here in 1997 without strong systems, and the impact of El Nino is much more.

  11. 16 September 2015 “Today is International Day for the Preservation of the Ozone Layer”
    if every house has “Tulasi” it will help in preserve ozone layer, the below article speaks about this.
    ஓசோன் மண்டலத்தை பாதுகாக்கும் துளசி
    http://tamil.thehindu.com/opinion/reporter-page/%E0%AE%93%E0%AE%9A%E0%AF%8B%E0%AE%A9%E0%AF%8D-%E0%AE%AE%E0%AE%A3%E0%AF%8D%E0%AE%9F%E0%AE%B2%E0%AE%A4%E0%AF%8D%E0%AE%A4%E0%AF%88-%E0%AE%AA%E0%AE%BE%E0%AE%A4%E0%AF%81%E0%AE%95%E0%AE%BE%E0%AE%95%E0%AF%8D%E0%AE%95%E0%AF%81%E0%AE%AE%E0%AF%8D-%E0%AE%A4%E0%AF%81%E0%AE%B3%E0%AE%9A%E0%AE%BF/article7658630.ece?homepage=true

  12. Rainfall in Tamil Nadu in extreme ends (Kanyakumari & Chennai region) ending 8.30 am on 16.09.2015

    in mm

    Kanyakumari district
    ——————-
    Upper Kodayar – 52
    Suralode – 36
    Chittar II – 31
    Lower Kodayar – 24
    Mullankivilai – 24
    Kannimar – 23
    Kulasekharam – 22
    Thovala – 20
    Thucklay – 19
    Rajakkamangalam – 19
    Anaikadangu – 18
    Neyoor – 17
    Mambazhathuraiyaru – 16
    Colachel – 16
    Kottar – 15
    Munchirai – 11
    Mylaudy – 11
    Balmore – 10
    Kurunthancode – 10
    Pechiparai – 9
    Nagercoil – 9
    Perunchani – 9
    Killiyoor – 9
    Puthen Dam – 9
    Eraniel – 8
    Thiruvattar – 7
    Chittar I – 7
    Agastiswaram – 7
    Boothapandi – 5
    Kanyakumari – 3

    Chennai & Surrounding region
    ———–
    Chithamur (melmarvathur) – 14
    Poondi Lake – 10
    Minjur – 9
    Madhavaram – 7
    Puzhal – 7
    Uthukottai – 7
    Ellapuram – 6
    Ennore – 5
    Ambattur – 3
    Cholavaram – 3
    Redhills – 5

  13. Heavy rains in Odisha and south chattisgarh..

    Vamsadhaara and Nagavali rivers overflowing in srikakulam
    Rains to extend into Nagpur Adilabad khammam karimnagar soon

    Bhabanipatna – 216 mm
    Koraput – 205 mm

  14. Heavy moisture incursion from Arabian sea into south peninsula under the influence of LPA…
    Coastal North central karnataka…
    Goa and coastal maharastra and parts of west and north Telangana may witness severe rains today

  15. Rainfall total of udupi…..A great consistency

    2009 – 5051 mm
    2010 – 4950 mm
    2011 – 5336 mm
    2012 – 4452 mm
    2013 – 4853 mm

  16. Adding to GTS point, In 1997 October the cold air mass was completely occupied over the country up to 15 N latitude, as you know cold air masses are lower in heights and warm air massed are higher. Northern part of Western Indian Ocean and South Arabian Sea had Warm Air Mass, since it was Positive IOD year. This has strengthened the onset and progress of NEM.

    Further if we see November month anomaly. The warm air mass extends up to TN and South Bay of Bengal, which had given extra moisture over the atmosphere, which had bought excess rainfall. The same condition prevailed in December too.

    When we compare the upper level stream function anomaly of 1997 and 2005 October. 2005 was better positioned at Normal category, which bought Excess rainfall in that month, this was due to Negative IOD development during Oct 2005, this has bought a DD which crossed South AP coast near Nellore around 27th October, whereas the negative anomaly of 1997 bought us only the Normal rainfall and did not produce any strong systems, this is due to strong Positive IOD.

    November 1997 & 2005 had similar amount of rainfall, it was around 60 CM in Chennai. But in 1997 interiors got lesser amount than coastal as the Negative stream function anomaly dominates. Whereas in 2005 it was due to Negative IOD we could not get Negative Anomaly, it was Normal.

    Hence during Positive IOD or any IOD years we need to observe the upper level wind and moisture anomaly, whether it is negative or normal or positive, this shows the strength and position of STR. To have strong STR presence at right positive, we require either Strong Positive IOD or Strong Negative IOD. This will make the STR to remain in perfect position for longer time, this will produce more precipitation.

    Ref pictures attached.

  17. PJ expecting massive rains tomorrow. Meteoblue is predicting Zero. Cole prediting around 15 mm. Foreca Zero mm.
    Massive test for these models and PJ’s source.
    But rain is around the corner. Lets see when will we get the next TS..

  18. today is very hot and last night also very sticky and humid, so something very big is on the way for tonight….true face of violent hybrid vs-ts periods ahead, we might expect the repeat, 2nd half of july in this sep too

  19. IMD MID DAY

    The well marked low pressure area over coastal areas of south Odisha
    and north Coastal Andhra Pradesh now lies over south Odisha &
    neighbourhood. The associated upper air cyclonic circulation extends
    upto 7.6 km above mean sea level.

    The system is likely to become a depression during next 12 hours

  20. Odisha Rainfall on 16th
    ========
    Sorada – 166 mm
    Nowrangpur – 153 mm
    Madhabarida – 146 mm
    Kutragada – 135 mm
    Gudari – 123 mm
    Kesinga – 122 mm

  21. 925 mb pressure from June-August said to be Negative over South Arabian Sea and Adjoining West Indian Ocean. This is related to deficit rainfall over West Coast.

    The same pattern was seen in 2009 ELNINO year but that time it was little away from West Coast and was weak. The deficit for this season from June to August was -26% in that year. This year it was around -7% for the same period.

    This similar pattern was not seen in any other ELNINO or Positive IOD years in the past.

  22. Lifted condensation level is less than 200 m across south odisha , infact some isolated it is close to 100m, extremely low level clouds could be floating around there.

  23. Current wml moving thru interior Maharashtra on friday..Much needed one for them..if it moves more west, mumbai can get heavy rf..

  24. Heavy rains in Araku Valley…Yesterday’s Araku images

    Today’s Report
    Imd Araku – 192.2 mm
    Araku AWS – 92 mm

    Yesterday’s Report
    Araku imd – 270 mm
    Araku AWS – 96 mm

    Araku AWS is situated in Veerabhadra substation nearly 6 km from Araku

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