LPA watch in Bay continues

Southwest monsoon continues to be active across northeastern states, south interior karnataka and konkan & goa. An Upper Air Cyclonic Circulation (UAC) persits over west central Bay of Bengal and under its influence a Low pressure area (LPA) is likely to form in next 48 hours. A cyclonic shear zone continues to persist along 17N latitude which might trigger isolated thunderstorms in the region.
The maximum temperature is expected to stay below normal by 1 or 2 degrees across TN, Karnataka and Kerala.
02. INSAT12
Chennai – Day temperature is likely to be around 34 – 35C. Few scattered thundershowers expected over the area.

Coimbatore – Can expect a cloudy day with temperature around 32C. Possibility of isolated showers in and around the city.

Madurai – Day temperature is expected to hover around 36-37C.

Trichy – The rock city continues to remain warm with temperature settling around 36 – 37C.

Vellore – The fort city will see a day temperature in the low 30’s with fair chance of thundershowers.

673 thoughts on “LPA watch in Bay continues

  1. THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.9N
    120.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 112.5E, APPROXIMATELY 320 NM SOUTH-
    SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
    (MSI) DEPICTS AN EXPOSED BUT DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
    (LLCC) EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH. MSI ALSO SHOWS A LARGE
    AREA OF PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED WELL TO THE SOUTH,
    HOWEVER, THIS AREA IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVERGENT WESTERLY FLOW.
    THIS IS CLEARLY EVIDENT IN AN 110228Z ASCAT IMAGE, WHICH SHOWS A
    WEAK CIRCULATION WITH 10 TO 15 KNOT WINDS AND 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS
    ASSOCIATED WITH THE WESTERLY WIND BURST. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
    INDICATES A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL
    WIND SHEAR. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE CALLS FOR THIS AREA TO GRADUALLY
    CONSOLIDATE OVER THE NEXT 4 DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
    ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
    ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
    A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

  2. Heavy rains in kurnool and Hyderabad

    Uppal Hyderabad – 82 mm
    Amberpet hyd – 46 mm
    imd Hyderabad – 21 mm
    imd kurnool – 20 mm

  3. SOI dipped slightly during the past two weeks. . . The 30-day SOI value to 30 August was −20.4.

    Sustained positive values of the SOI above +7 may indicate La Niña, while sustained negative values below −7 may indicate El Niño. Values of between about +7 and −7 generally indicate neutral conditions.

  4. Happened to read few days back that our likable blogger Susa (Sudarshan) interest in taking up medicine.
    Well all I can say is..”Meteorological world’s loss is Medicine world’s gain..”
    Well now, what would happen tomorrow if Suss is seen with the Dr’s Apron or coat you would call it and attending patients…

    Here it goes,

    Susa as a Dermatologist..
    Dr.Susa..MD DVD.DNB.
    Patient enters his cabin…
    Yes, tell me what’s up..
    Patient..Dr, I’ve itching all over the body.What’s this round shaped red patches….unbearable really..
    Dr Susa..After thorough examination, hey c’mon,
    The patches are actually a sign of some developments.. I would term it as Pop ups all over and it’s actually a good sign.
    Patient…..What Dr?
    Dr.Susa..Relax man.., The ones seen in your body are all tiny clusters of pop ups. In fact they have very good chance of converging and growing big cos of prefect conditions.
    Patient..Looking amused..
    Patient..What do you mean? Why should they converge?
    Dr..If only they converge, they have a good chance of towering up..
    Patient..Dr. these red patches seems to be spreading here n there..What to do?
    Dr.Arey baba, they are flanking n not actually spreading…Remember. it should not flank too much..else. Nunga may miss again..
    Patient..Nunga..What’s that Dr..Ohh. I’m.sorry, got carried away…
    Patient..Dr, what are these tiny red dots on my forehead?..
    Dr.These are nothing but localized pop ups.
    They appear all of a sudden n vanish at the same speed as it came..Just ignore, but one thing ,these localized ones benefit a particular area really well..
    Patient..Dr, I used to get lot if dandruff when I was in Delhi, particularly in winter months n during rainy season there. Now after settling down in Madras, I hardly get those. How is that possible?
    Dr.Susa..Ohh, Seborrhea..you mean ..
    That’s purely cos of WD..
    Patient..WD??? What is now WD..Nothing its Western Disturbance..it affects those people residing in the North..and its common during Monsoon season..

    And you should not get it here as WD effects are practically nill in this city..Patient..Dr. along with Dandruff, I used to sneeze lot when I was there..
    Dr. …
    That’s purely Cold front effect…

    Patient..Dr, Here is my pathological report..What’s all these RBC n WBC Dr?..
    Boss ,need not worry about all these cells, What you require is Super Cell..We hardly get to see those..
    Dr Susa..Well ,take these prescribed medicines, they have high reflectivity. Dbz values..You should get well soon…

    Patient..Dr..can I ask you one thing..I’ve never seen a Dr. Like you..you are totally different..you have made me understand it in a nice and simple manner..
    Dr..Ohh. Thanks a lot..
    BTW..do you know anything about weather, I mean your interest..
    Patient..Perplexed..weather!!!! No way..
    Dr.Ok, from Tomorrow. Log on to blog.keaweather.org

    Know about weather there..

    Thanks GTS for some inputs.

  5. We must always mix some spice some contest some sports etc in dull days like our thala did. Thats what makes kea blog special from other blog.

  6. India 30 man probable squad, courtesy cricinfo

    Batsmen: Virat Kohli, Shikhar Dhawan, Murali Vijay, KL Rahul, Cheteshwar Pujara, Ajinkya Rahane, Rohit Sharma, Karun Nair, Suresh Raina, Ambati Rayudu, Kedar Jadhav, Manish Pandey

    Wicketkeepers: MS Dhoni, Wriddhiman Saha, Naman Ojha

    Allrounders: Stuart Binny, Ravindra Jadeja

    Spinners: R Ashwin, Amit Mishra, Harbhajan Singh, Axar Patel, Pragyan Ojha, Karn Sharma

    Seamers: Ishant Sharma, Bhuvneshwar Kumar, Umesh Yadav, Varun Aaron, Mohammed Shami, Mohit Sharma, Dhawal Kulkarni

  7. TN set to have some wet weather in between the 2 LPAs.. After the first one moves inland goes towards west coast, TN rainfall activity will pick up till the landfall of the 2nd LPA

    Thankfully, the suppressed convective phase of ER is passing over very soon which won’t adversely affect our possible activity next week.

  8. If a patient walks in to Susu’s clinic for hair-fall treatment, he will be cured completely using advanced weather technologies within few minutes..in addition, he will look like Bruce or Rock after coming out..

  9. On Behalf of Amb Flashu………………

    25 feared dead in MP gas cylinder explosion – Cooking gas cylinder explodes at a restaurant in Petlawad town of the State’s Jhabua district.

  10. Respected moderator…
    Why my likes are not getting saved, eg.if I liked a post its getting saved on temporary basis, after I logged in next time or I refreshed, I have to give another like for the same comment…why is it so ?

  11. Drizzle band stagnating over north of chennai from morning, also a weak SB front slowly marching towards chennai so we might see some overhead action soon

  12. Dr.Susa..MD DVD.DNB, Dermatologist, Mahalingapuram, chennai
    Superb Narration & Direction, Thala@ Novak.. While reading, feels like seeing a Movie..
    Chance illa Boss..fantastic..

  13. Friends
    Pradeep’s Valparai photo reminded me.
    NEM is around the corner and most of us may be keen to freeze the monsoon frenzy in all its glory.

    Well,our wait is over.NEM is just weeks away and Srivats is also just a few kms away!

    Srivats,Our Photography guru,who had enthralled us with a theory class a few weeks back has offered to take us to a field trip and shoot with our cameras.Details are below

    Date:Saturday,19th Sept
    Time:3pm
    Place: Guindy National Park
    Duration:90-120mins
    What to bring:Your cheer and cameras ( Mobiles also will do)
    What not to bring:Rains atleast for that period

    Mail your confirmations to keabloggers@gmail.com

  14. My Most Luckiest Day In Blog Is Today!
    I Got Two Likes From @kea_weather:disqus
    First Time I Got That Two Likes In One Day!
    One For Mecca Post and Another For Paul Walker Post!

  15. All India deficit jumps to 16 %.. Looks like it might be declared a drought year.. IMD stands tall while Skymet sees its fall..

    • They too are having SW tilt. Example current LPA LLCC is at Vishakapatnam latitude, but associated UAC is far to its SW

      • That’s because they have all been weak.. If this one develops we will be able to observe that feature. However this LPA too is expected to weaken before landfall.

      • only strengthening can make the convection to fold around its SW-periphery. weak systems can’t make this SW-convection

  16. Rayalaseema which was once having 40% deficit this August now stands at 1% deficit thanks to heavy rains from August 20th

  17. I am sorry if I have upsetted anyone in the blog. I may have been at fault, we all make mistakes. Please accept my sincere apologies and come back to blogging. I don’t know what else to say. Hope we all can stay away from controversies.

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