Active Monsoon continues in Peninsula

keaweather 2015, KEA Blog, SWM-2015

The Monsoon rains have been active over Marathawada, Rayalaseema, Coastal Karnataka, North Interior Karnataka and Kerala during past 24 hours. This is due to a trough at lower levels that is seen running from north Madhya Maharashtra to Lakshadweep area across interior Karnataka extending up to 1.5 km above mean sea level.

Meanwhile, an upper air cyclonic circulation (UAC) persists in west central Bay, which according to some numerical weather models, may surface down and a Low Pressure Area (LPA) could form in about 3-4 days.
02. INSAT
This LPA could revive back the last Monsoon spell into central India and adjoining east India, while the Monsoon withdrawal line stays restricted to extreme western India.

Chennai will see max temperature moving closer to 35C. Skies will be mostly cloudy with a possibility of thunderstorm activity in the evening/night.

Coimbatore has a chance of light showers in some areas with max temperature hovering around 32C.

Madurai – Temperature is expected to be around 36C. There is a possibility of light showers in some areas during late evening hours/night.

1,222 thoughts on “Active Monsoon continues in Peninsula”

  1. It will be north coastal TN turn from now on.. rest of the places will remain mainly dry.. tats the uniqueness of chennai

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    • KEA – good morning. Hope you remember me and all is well. I noticed that one of your bloggers is constantly making references to me and thinking I am the bigot who is making uncharitable remarks. My IP address can be confirmed and also that my current whereabouts can be confirmed by 500 people. So if that person continues to assume that I am the one then it will be truly unfortunate – Ashwin.

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      • @ramisettisrinivasarao:disqus- this comment is OK. I do not have any issues to it. But Pradeep John thinks I am the one who is masquerading as that bigot. Ask him to gracefully remove it or I will explore what options I have from here.

      • but it looks a series of deleted comments (few might be pointed towards kea blog too), which was deleted by you on the advice of Srikanth) posted by you might be the 1st initial flash point according to my view. I remember (might be on Sunday/Monday, I may be wrong) one of the comment against 2D-map model too.

        I learned by experience that its better not to pull others unnecessarily.

      • I do not know anything about the 2D map model. That was a technical question and I gave a technical answer and there were no references to KEA blog in that. In any case why are you curious about what happens over there ? Why not be satisfied with what you have here?

      • how can I assume like that? you only told me that you work in remote areas where there won’t be any communications in our last discussion as per my memory.

      • Then there is no issue with you. I wish you well in your efforts to learn and grow and beyond. Best regards.

      • I think moderator will ask to delete the comments to avoid any dispute from the content in the comments. A series of comments get deleted spells the reality I think. So its better to avoid unnecessary disputes. We all here to enrich our weather knowledge by friendly debates.

        Its better to leave here.

    • still more to come before formation BOB-LPA. Before mid-September, September team will reach more than half mark in chasing 🙂

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  4. I wanted to send Pradeep John a private email but since he is a very public person and the accusation has been made in public why not resolve it here in a friendly manner prior to taking it to the next and unfortunate step ?

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    • The content owner K Ehsan Ahmed has the ultimate responsibility of all content from a legal perspective. So when my ip address is confirmed and my current whereabouts are confirmed and it turns out I am not the bigot then we can have few interesting days ahead.

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      • If you feel you cannot manage strangers from making bigoted remarks why not manage this on a secured id basis and ask everyone to provide their identification prior to making comments here ?

  5. Good morning
    what a late night show it was best of this swm season. My rg recorded 60mm and congrats to our fuel man jeetu for superb forecast he gave day before yesterday. Though he may not have got rains his forecast was great and he can be happy. Hopefully he gets it today

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  6. Technical differences are fine but the current issues is that few people think that I am the one who is secretly masquerading as that bigot. That can have legal ramifications.

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  10. OMG!
    What happens last night?
    My one slipper is at one end and another at another end…lol..it seems flood entered my apartment seems…waiting for massive readings!

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      • Thank you for your comment Gajendra T Nagar. May I know what this means –

        Pradeep John, Anna Nagar West

        •

        6 hours ago

        Mottai payan Samson must be enyoing the rains. Maddy i think it is ashwinds or ammet or weatherbug.

        Ehsan is sleeping and will tell him to ban the mottai payyan.

      • Oh no… I missed it largely..I apologise for this on behalf of PJ. It should have been made with no intention to defame you. Maybe he got your name, because of the tone of Mr.Samson was similar that of you.

      • @GajendraKumar – based on what evidence does PJ think my tone is in any way similar to that of Samson ? Have I ever made bigoted remarks ? Have I used four letter words in public ?

      • Absolutely not Sir. Let us leave it here. We all knew about your knowledge, and I personally felt happy to see you on other platform.

      • @GajendraKumar – unfortunately I do not know who you are because I never met you in public. You have the advantage on me. But kindly avoid the us versus them attitude.
        On this subject I am afraid I cannot leave it here. Either Pradeep John clarifies his remark or the blog owner will have to provide a detailed proof that I am indeed Samson.

      • Having never met you I take your remark with the respect it deserves. Maybe we should get acquainted offline. On this subject suing would be the last step. But a gentle reminder of the laws first would not be so bad. I have talked to Gopal who will talk to KEA and try to resolve this first.

  12. Gud morning guys what a superbb rain lastnight breaks all the record of this year my area recived wooping 60 mm but i think the voice of thunder is not so high as expected but in winds and rainrate it defintley tops the rank. Today we can expect ws-vs electric TS.;).to entire chennai.

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  14. Good morning, thundery rains at night. woulld like to see the readings. as usual ant forecast worked yesterday.:) and expecting good rains today also.

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  16. Good morning. .
    “How many people you bless is how you measure success”
    -Rick Ross

    South and Central Chennai had heavy rain in midnight while north Chennai received light rain.Many places of south and central Chennai had more than 6 cm rain.Some places might have registered more than 8cm.

    Further medium rain is expected over many parts of Chennai city for another 4 to 5 days.Heavy rain is expected on 14th and 15th September 2015.

    Parts of North east interior Tamilnadu districts would have medium rain for another 4 to 5 days.

    No significant rainfall activity for interior and south Tamilnadu for atleast another 4 to 5 days.

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  18. My walking ground has fully submerged.. I thought surely it should be around 5cm..just came now & checked metsite its show 49mm.. Wow..my prediction was true..

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  19. Though sep rains r delayed ..it didn’t lose its capacity.. Sep rains started with a huge bang by pouring the best heavy spell.. So only we told..BE Aware of sep rains..

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  20. I think this is the first time in the year that nunga has beaten ur area woow so something is waiting for nunga.;) like what we say more to come.

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  24. Has the recent media success gone to Pradeep’s head ? Previously he was not like this. In any case why is it when you have a well known offender – why is it you cannot make identification mandatory ? Is it that hard or is it easier to assume that an innocent party is the bigot because that person is not capable of defending himself here ?

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  27. North Chennai completely missed out Heavy Thunderstorm last night. Only Light Rains Recorded in Ambattur

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  29. Yesterday storm shows that september are massive ones which the most of the places records 50 – 80mm within a hour. Good Chance for More Rains to record in this sep just 2 – 3 days enough to reach 120 – 150mm.
    Jeetu Super. Spot on Prediction with 10000% :p

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  30. Good Morning Friends – City City Bang Bang – 1) Thank you Singapore you have given us bountiful as rightly said by you and PJ South Chennai started with a bang (2) I have mentioned last evening as per NET there likely rain and that has happened (3) Just see the record August must have been evaporated already..

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  35. what a blistering spell of rains yesterday. congrats to Sel, Jeetu, P.J sir and others for their spot on predictions…

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  38. Today gfs predicts heavy spells for North east karnataka west AP Parts of Telangana and maharastra and chitoor tiruvallur and parts of chennai

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    • are you seeing at BOB?? Better to alert Kurnool town as 2009-type historical floods ( I keep on saying this for so many times) in due in coming days 😦

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      • Yes…it is flaring up…both Arabian sea and BOB…..
        I hope extreme squalls awaiting south India

  42. Ashwind

    Yesterday a person samson started debate with maddy in similar style. The tone was similar. So i put a message that it may be ammet ashwinds or weatherbug. I have not mentioned its is only you, i have put ur name in doubtful manner. since u had issues here with maddy, no wrong in pulling ur name. It doesnt mean samson is you.

    What more clarification u need. Maybe if u asked polite manner. i would have apologized. But being a hot headed and pulling my name like this. Why should i. I have no personal issues against you. But putting words like this “Has the recent media success gone to Pradeep’s head” I will not. We already know how u treated maddy in this blog. 1st u apologize to maddy they way u treat him last time in this blog. Then i will sure even though i did not do any wrong.

    Why Gaje apologize to him ?.

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    • Pradeep- OK we will discuss all your issues with me. Please answer the following question first. I have read samson’s debate with maddy. How am I similar to him in any way ?

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      • Two – I do not know the discussion with Sudarshan. I do not recall – I have not been on this site for many many months. If he has a problem with me why did he not contact me offline to resolve it ? Have such steep walls been constructed that people cannot talk ?

      • My name is therefore permanently associated with samson’s bigotry. Please be careful what you say Pradeep because this could have consequences.

      • When I read his remarks yesterday I was so shocked that I could not believe you could think that vile person is me.

      • Ok you still feel ? Very good thank you. End of discussion. I will take this offline with the blog owner and then next step. Wish you the very best.

      • May be discussing this openly, u are associating urself with this. You are free to do as per ur wish.

      • we dont know each other. Its not the language. the person was replying only to maddy. Same way u did last time. So its not based on the language but the way replying was coming to maddy. then he replied to others.

      • its not the content, its the style of reply. No one knows who u are here. until now.

      • i just felt similar. Its never to tarnish u. Its not my intent honestly. Why should i. We are good so far. Why should i tarnish ur name. What is the benefit to me. Do i enjoy this debate. No. No. I never hurt anyone intentionally.

    • You do understand that you will need to produce the record of what I told Sudarshan exactly. Second whether that is condescending or not then whether a apology is required.

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  43. Schematic representation (Figure 1) that why my September 3rd prediction failed (due to MJO’s reverse loop). Why the heavy rains started now with slight delay at Core Chennai (due to forward movement of MJO at phase 2).

    One can see the newly developing strong MISO under the effect of MJO +ER +MRG (Figure 2). This MISO will flood entire peninsular and central India with flooded rains in coming days. Especially Krishna and Godavari river catchment areas will receive exceptionally heavy floods.

    Figure 1: MJO at phase 2: http://s12.postimg.org/jk9wvbcsd/pd_MW05_Last.gif
    Figure 2: MJO+ MISO: http://s10.postimg.org/irvzvmouh/wm5ir.gif

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  47. Flash..chasing alert…by this Saturday still average 60-70 mm rains will be scored. so overall 100 mm average will be recorded before mid-September. so remaining 40 mm chasing in 15 days is very easy task for us 🙂

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  48. Good morning all. Yesterday what a massive storm..
    Nunga rain rate was more than 200 mm/ hr for some minutes.. I didn’t see that in this year…..
    Sep guys come on rocking

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    • September storms always monsterous ones. We might see very intense spells in the days to come. We will have normal to slightly above normal in this sep.

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  49. Yesterday night was the first time in this year that I underestimated the amount of rain by a large amount. . Probably because I was half asleep when it rained and way too sleepy to check the radar 😛 I was in for a pleasant surprise when I found 40 mm in my RG 🙂

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  53. @Pradeep John, Anna Nagar West:disqus – I have never met you in real life. So it will be a pleasure to meet you in a civil court on opposite sides of course 🙂 But first I must talk with another person who I have never talked with – K Ehsan Ahmed . Have a good day folks and apologies for the diversion from the weather topic.

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    • guest, leave this talk to rest. while blogging, many things happen and course correction is the solution. dont get offended.we are all here to make friends. not make appointments to meet in court.

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      • So again I do not know who you are and I apologize. I am not here against making friends but some very divisive remarks have been attributed to me. As far as I know I have not been here for 6 months or longer. Why my name gets dragged into this ?

  54. Meanwhile. My RG shows 7.2 mm…
    Entire stretch from Central Station, Villivakkam, Anna Nagar West had decent spell of rains it seems.

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  55. am_met, have you seen my earlier comment? What’s your view?? Schematic representation (Figure 1) that why my September 3rd prediction failed (due to MJO’s reverse loop). Why the heavy rains started now with slight delay at Core Chennai (due to forward movement of MJO at phase 2).

    One can see the newly developing strong MISO under the effect of MJO +ER +MRG (Figure 2). This MISO will flood entire peninsular and central India with flooded rains in coming days. Especially Krishna and Godavari river catchment areas will receive exceptionally heavy floods.

    Figure 1: MJO at phase 2: http://s12.postimg.org/jk9wvbcsd/pd_MW05_Last.gif
    Figure 2: MJO+ MISO: http://s10.postimg.org/irvzvmouh/wm5ir.gif

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  58. Blog is against personalised comments. We apologise if anybody has been hurt in the process. We are sincere bloggers and also are confident that all have good intentions. Sometimes the weather passion can lead to a few comments. Lets avoid these and progress. I also request that this topic ends here and we will take it offline amicably.

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  61. @sudarshan – I do not know what remarks I have made against you (if you can produce a copy I would appreciate). But I do recall praising you as a boy wonder. Please understand I am at least 20-25 years older to you and therefor like your chittappa or mama. As a member of the same family I have the right to criticize you for your own welfare. In any case even if I did say something wrong I apologized by realizing my mistake by not coming here again. Why bring up an old issue ? For your own welfare you must be aware that I am extremely personable why did you not contact Gopal for a meeting given the fact that I have met so many already ?

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  63. poor ants leave them.. for they are all innocent, unlike humans with all kinds of wrong intentions and beliefs. 🙂

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  65. Guest,

    As far as you are correcting your mistakes it is fine, no need to call them and cool it. Lets not do it again. It is good to see PJ too not getting frustrated, that is a big improvement i am seeing from him, may be the early morning rains would have bought the comfort.

    What else required when Ehsan is trying put off fire in the blog. These kind of issues will come when experts are more in numbers and that too in same blog. The difference of opinion is common, it is within a family itself, then how it cannot happen in a versatile blog like this one. Hence do not repeat the mistakes done, we will have good time in KEA blogging, Good NEM season nearing. If you want to enjoy the good NEM season, you have to maintain decorum and stay tuned in KEA Blog.

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    • @partha – thank you for your wisdom. I avoided this blog for over 6 months. I wish everyone here the best. Even if I chose not to come here for my own reasons it appears people won’t let go of me. Is this not hatred on their part ? I may have made a mistake so I repented and avoided. What then gives these people to right to assume I am their secret slanderer ?

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  69. Oh then you are Ammet(Ashwin). Yes you have asked me few questions on that day. The way you asked was an issue. There are several other polite ways you can use. In today’s world youngsters are more clever than the people who were in the past. Hence you can ask us to learn but should not order. This was the problem earlier, even it was hurting me that time, but later on i too realised that you were right in asking me those questions.

    Hence the way we approach to people who do not know us before is very important. I hope you understand.

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  71. Ammet or ashwinds

    I apologize for putting ur name along with WeatherBug for linking it with Samson. U may have felt hurt because of my actions.

    It’s not my media success or anything else have to do with it. It’s in the heat of the moment. Let’s close this and move ahead.

    I request Ehsan to keep more vigil or take actions against Samson like guys. Give night modshits to other person like gts who are active at night.

    This issue could been avoided with mods been active by banning Samson immediately.

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    • Thank you Pradeep. You are one of the oldest members in this blog – do not stoop to his level no matter what the provocation. Remember people are reading your every word because you are now a public person. Your words are respected by your readers – how will they feel when they see you make such comments ? I have no right to advise you because I barely know you. But all I can say do not get involved in banter with such people. There are two ways to react to a sledge. One is the Virat Kohli/Ishant Sharma way. The other way is the Rahul Dravid/Sachin Tendulkar/Laxman way. I hope you chose the latter. Best wishes to you.

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    • MJO still at phase 2. It is forecasted to enter MTC via phase 3. Junction of phase 2&3 also gives one good shot of heavy rains over Chennai. So today and tomorrow also core Chennai has better chances.

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  73. see the effect of kea’s presence in chennai.. yesterday was a proof once again.. Kea pls be bak asap or else match over 🙂

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  77. Which Standard Model Predicted 40+ MM rain for Chennai yesterday ? I guess ,None. C’mmon guys, lets ditch the models. Lets trust our experts rather than models..

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  78. Finally – please do not assume I have no ill feelings towards anyone here. Regarding RSRao’s query why I take different id – I promise you that won’t happen. Should I come back here again I will come with my name and photo. There is really no need for me to slander or stoop to such a low level. I hide myself because of my job. I cannot make public statements due to the nature of my job. I do not want my employer reading it. There are certain things I cannot talk of my job.

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  79. Conditions look ideal for rains today again
    1) KEA out of city – double digit sureshot for Nunga
    2) Investors meet still going on – widespread heavy rains sure

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  80. Rough chart Aug vs sep stats
    Up to 10sep -50mm approx
    Up to 20sep -50mm Approx
    Up to 30 sep -50mm approx
    =150mm easy chase for sep team as per current strike rate.

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  81. Yes easy for you. You are in the USA commenting on Indian weather. I am in India and my employer is here. If they read it I can’t predict what will happen.

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  87. ofcourse u right with ur prediction,dont mistake me jeet..there is some experiment happening at other side with the models output on how early these models picking ts rains.. say 48 hrs,72 hours before.. with this context they were bang on target 4 days bfore

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  88. Partha, I am posting complete comment below to make understand MJO vs OTCZ vs ITCZ by taking June and July rainfall pattern difference based on MJO including Dr.DS Pai’s reference.

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    • My understanding why west-coast (around Mumbai) left dry in July in contrast to June as per Dr. D. S. Pai’s research work (try to understand abstract properly in the link before proceeding further to read this comment). Additional explanation why SWM in June-2015 ended in excess (figure 1) when compared to deficit July-2015 (figure 2):

      MJO-june and excess SWM (figure 1):
      (a) According Dr. D. S. Pai we can know how important for MJO to complete its cycle in phases 1,2,3,4,5,6. In early June-2015 MJO entered phases 1 &2, which initiated oceanic tropical convergence zone (OTCZ) and hence SWM onset taken place along Kerala. Later this MJO entered phases 3-6 , which helped this OTCZ to move further north to merge with western end of ITCZ (helped western end of SWM-axis to exhibit its natural W/SW tilt to align more southerly). Hence most west coast (including Mumbai) received exceptionally very active spells of SWM.

      (b) Further MJO’s entry to phase 3-6 activated the strengthening of eastern ITCZ to activate SWM-axis (hence SWM-eastern end exhibited its natural W/SW tilt to align more southerly). Hence SWM-rainfall distribution is good along its eastern SWM-axis.

      The above good patterns in ITCZ (along total SWM-axis) & OTCZ triggered by complete MJO cycle (phases 1-6) helped the SWM-distribution evenly entire India in the month of June. So june -2015 ended in excess.

      MJO-july and deficit SWM (figure 2):
      (c) After break in active SWM spell of June, MJO entered phases 1 &2 again in july, which initiated oceanic tropical convergence zone (OTCZ) and hence again west coast around Kerala and Karnataka received good spells of SWM. Unfortunately (fortunate for TN/Chennai) MJO doesn’t entered phases 3-6 and moreover stagnated around phase 2 more time doesn’t helped this OTCZ to move further north to merge with western end of ITCZ (hence western end of SWM-axis doesn’t exhibited its natural W/SW tilt and stayed more northerly around Rajasthan/Gujarat). Hence most west coast (including Mumbai) ended exceptionally dry spell to end SWM in great deficits in july.

      (d) Further MJO’s absence at phases 3-6 doesn’t strengthened the eastern ITCZ to activate eastern end of SWM-axis (hence SWM-eastern end doesn’t exhibited its natural W/SW tilt and aligned more northerly). Hence SWM-rainfall distribution ended good along northern and east-northern in excess to leave central and east-canter in great deficits.

      The above uneven patterns in ITCZ (along total SWM-axis) & OTCZ triggered by uneven incomplete MJO cycle (only phases phases 1&2) helped the SWM-distribution unevenly entire India in the month of July. Moreover due to absence of natural W/SW tilt along entire SWM-axis ignited two land based DDs (along either end of SWM axis due to its own dynamics/Elnino related WP induced??), which stayed long time in more northerly direction without losing any strength. So this abnormal strength in DDs resulted in uneven distribution of rainfall pattern, July-2015 ended in great deficit.

      Dr.D.S.pai’s MJO research link (read abstract): http://www.imdpune.gov.in/ncc_rept/RESEARCH%20REPORT%2010.pdf

      Figure 1 (June-2015 MJO): http://s8.postimg.org/968ekvyet/MJO_june.gif

      Figure 2 (July-2015, MJO): http://s17.postimg.org/f2bce64gf/MJO_july.gif

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  89. Hello guys, Looks like most of Chennai had a field day yesterday. Wish and hope to see the same today! I was really sad to see the dam levels…446/11057 mcft..Let us get enough rain this year so there are no water worries!

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  91. Rami,

    That was brilliant analysis. I love it. I could now able to understand the basics of MJO induced OTCZ and ITCZ. It helps more when MJO in Phase 3 and 4. It had not activated negative olr directly, but it helped indirectly through strengthening OTCZ. That is really good one to learn for the day.

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    • Yes Partha. At present case if MJO moves very smoothly towards phase 3 or 4 via phase 2 without losing amplitude (similar to June style), then yesterday rains (still more to come) might not have occurred at core Chennai. Overall I am understanding that there must be some hurdle between OTCZ and ITCZ interconnection to receive good rains over core Chennai.

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      • The present rains at chennai will continue till MISO gets matured along ITCZ as MJO moving towards phase 3/4 with low amplitude at phase 2. When MJO moves directly with high amplitude at phase 2 towards phase 3 or 4 (similar to June style), then Chennai rains may not happen despite its presence.

      • We can term this as OTCZ leaking at NTN (near Chennai) while interlinking with ITCZ to set up a MISO. This leakage in convection of OTCZ is very important for core Chennai to be benefited from MJO near phase 2 (or junction of phases 2&3).

    • It should be more than that Jupi. Saligramam which is 2 Kms from Valasai and in straign W to E line ,got pelted for 1 hr.

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  96. OMG. Chembarabakkam lake, the biggest of the Chennai water supply Lakes and the wettest place in chennai region records 80 mm and generates 800 cusecs inflow..

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  97. Ambattur, Perambur and many areas in north chennai missed the rains. North and south of North Chennai received good rains. Ambattur records least rainfall of 2mm. In coming days rain chances look good. Sep will easily beat aug score

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  100. Lets patent this comment from KEA Blog. Otherwise, other sites may claim that they have said this first about NEM 2015.

    NEM likely to set in ahead of normal date. It likely to begin before 15th October, to be more precise may be in the second week of October it should commence through a LOW forming in South West Bay. This NEM 2015 likely to be from normal to excess category as the basin wide warming in Indian Ocean and ELNINO to support.

    SWM further withdrawal over NW and North India to get halted for few more days due to back to back systems likely in Bay as MJO crossing from Phase 2 to 3 and 4 likely. This will trigger more moisture across the country. Further withdrawal from NW and North India likely to begin from 17th onwards. Once the second system crosses the coast either in India or Bangla or Myanmar the further withdrawal from Central India likely after 25th September. After 25th long dry spell across the country expected including south india before NEM begins.

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