Rains to continue in Southern Peninsula

The Southwest Monsoon has withdrawn from most parts of Rajasthan, Western parts of Haryana and Punjab. Monsoon is expected to withdraw from the rest of northwest India in the next few days. The story is quite different in Southern Peninsula, where the Monsoon has been active over Interior Karnataka, Kerala and Telangana. The trough which was responsible for these rains will continue to persist over the Southern peninsula for the next few days which will result in widespread thunderstorms over Interior Karnataka, Western parts of Maharashtra, Telangana and Kerala.

There is also another weak Disturbance which persists over West Central Bay of Bengal which will help in producing scattered thunderstorms over South AP and North TN in the coming days.
02. INSAT (1)

Chennai will see max temperature moving closer to 35C. Skies will be mostly cloudy with a possibility of thunderstorm activity in the evening/night.

Coimbatore has a chance of light showers in some areas with max temperature moving closer to 32C.

Madurai will be pleasant as the max temperature is expected to be around 35C. There is a possibility of light showers in some areas during late evening hours/night.

1,442 thoughts on “Rains to continue in Southern Peninsula

  1. Gud morning guys today or tommrw there is chance of scatterd TS to chennai.due to heat and mositure availabilty.hope my words are heard by rain god today atleast.;)

  2. Hello Bloggers,Good Morning

    Today is Also Expected To Be Dry…Don’t Worry NEM Will Rock Soon…Our Premonsoon Showers Are For A Toss This Year…SEP Would End With Less Than 50 mm Like June…If That System Forms Over Bay! That Could Again Dimnish Our TS Chances…Models Have Predicted Rain Today But Unfortunately It is Expected To be Dry…Temp Will Be From 34 – 35.5 It’s Cloudy Now And As The Day Progresses It Would Change Partly Cloudy

    HAPPY BLOGGING.

  3. Good news for Sept team. Today high chances of rain as I have left the city. In fact tomorrow too super chances. Will return back to India on Friday

  4. Weekly Tropical Climate Note (An BOM Update)

    Significant tropical cyclone activity across Pacific Ocean
    – For the second week in a row, four tropical cyclones are currently affecting the Pacific Ocean
    – Typhoon Kilo, and tropical storm Etau in the western Pacific Ocean, may affect Japan later this week
    – Hurricane Linda and tropical storm Jimena over the eastern Pacific Ocean are not expected to have significant impacts

    Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) remains weak
    – For the last several weeks the MJO has been weak and not likely to have been a significant driver of tropical weather
    – International models forecast the MJO to remain weak for at least the next week

    El Niño strengthens with a warm Indian Ocean
    – Sea surface temperatures across the tropical Pacific Ocean indicate the current El Niño is the strongest since 1997–98
    – Near-record warmth continues across the Indian Ocean with forecast of a positive Indian Ocean Dipole event this spring

  5. Good humid morning, one third september without much rains for core chennai. Far outskirts got some good rains until now. Today’s kea forecast says possible TS rains, so lets hope Madipakkam see some real rains.

  6. Another golden chance for chennai to open its sep account today as I’m expecting 10000% bright chance for rains

  7. Super day……the wind pattern has changed as the UAC in the BoB has come down in lattitude and now lies around 14 N. This means storms which forms in nagari will not move SW but will be W-NW. Watch out for pulicat region again.

    Exepcting change in fortunes today. With Ehsan out of town all negative forces are at Bay. Will join the blog as soon as pop up’s form.

    http://earth.nullschool.net/#2015/09/09/1500Z/wind/isobaric/700hPa/orthographic=-278.73,8.09,1024

    http://www.imd.gov.in/section/nhac/dynamic/nwp/24hgfs_700wind.htm

  8. Good morning

    I’ve never seen such a positive forecast for TN from CFS. It shows a highly above average November for TN especially for the parched coastal regions!This is Great News 🙂

  9. Hot and sunny day!
    As I told morning there is good moisture availability at chn around 5pm ..wind Direction will favor us from today…..
    Today sure shot of rains !!!

  10. Forecasts hinting one thing.

    They say below normal October, but Excess November.

    means, Positive IOD to exit by October, one the IOD becomes Neutral in November the rainfall is increasing over the state. Hence Positive IOD need to fade away, since the emergence in September in not good for NEM.

  11. I feel that i saw an unauthorized entry here, but that comment is deleted, good job.
    Even the User ID was shown, but that is not exact person, i know who was that would be. That user is online now in another platform.

  12. Bloggers,

    We all are here to just share our thoughts on weather, we cannot harm anyone here, we do not have any rights. If we keep doing it even after saying for several times, the blog has full rights to expel them. It is an action to have harmony in the blog. That too action will be taken after several cautions. If it is taken in the wrong sense then we don’t nee to worry about them. This blog has immense knowledge and potential to excel to great extent. Lets maintain the peacefulness and lets maintain decorum and enjoy the time spent here.

  13. Better not to accept new people for few days in this blog..somewhere something wrong and few outsiders are jealous about the growth of this blog,so they want to bring it down by disturbing the harmony..

  14. JAMSTEC forecast which came out in August showed above normal rainfall for N/NE BOB and Myanmar during SON period and now its happening. Back to back systems in BOB will result in above normal rainfall for N/NE BOB and Myanmar.

    JAMSTEC latest forecast for OND period will come out around 16th Sep. So we will get the fair idea about NEM in coming week.

  15. Always before the 1st pop-up and in between also in Chennai radar I can see line of blue,orange dots from salem->thiruvannamalai-chengalpet for few mins..what is that?

  16. There will be lots of Thunderstorms over North India during the SWM withdrawal process. The dry air and moist collides during that time, wherever this collision happens, those places will have TS, this is another indication of SWM withdrawal.

    POPUP now visible in Jaipur RADAR.

  17. Why can’t we find that “thani oruvan” who is haunting and spoiling this blog and some specified individuals? its really disgusting and indigestible for me, its really a condemned act in which a religion is been critized and with filthy pictures…I hope kea – moderator will make strong filterations for new entries

  18. I feel no more mystery or zigzag playings should be allowed, atleast moderator should know some necessary details about bloggers…I’m not against mystic bloggers like odm/guest11k etc but its time for necessary steps to be taken

  19. Jupi,

    I don’t think that SUN has gone south of our head. Still during sunrise in the morning i could see the sun over EENE direction from my head. During afternoon it is still on the northern part of my head. How come they say SUN has gone below 5N?

  20. 1997 tamilnadu nem rains was massive and with less damage unlike 2005…
    1997- strong elnino+ positive iod…
    similar trend we can expect coming nem??
    Really very much good news….Tamilnadu got highest rainfall average 850mm ….chennai received 1570mm ..
    1997 is better than 2005…
    If we gets similar rainfall, we can be free from kerala and karnataka for minimum 2 years …
    hope for the best…

    • In 1997 Positive IOD emerged in July, but now it is in September. The difference is there in intensity. Hence we cannot compare it with 1997. ELNINO trend matches with 1997 and 2015. NEM was Excess.

      In 2002 the Positive IOD was emerged in August, the intensity is similar to present one but ELNINO was moderate and modoki style, but now ELNINO is stronger. Hence there is a difference in ELNINO pattern. NEM normal in Chennai and deficit in TN.

      In 2009 IOD was neutral and ELNINO was moderate. NEM was normal.

      In 1963 the Positive IOD emerged in July and was weakened in September then strengthened in October, ELNINO was moderate. NEM failed.

      In 1965 the IOD was Neutral and ELNINO was stronger. NEM failed.

      In 1982 the Positive IOD emerged in June and became stronger in September. ELNINO was stronger but NEM failed.

  21. YEAR
    NUNGAMBAKKAM
    (NORMAL 75 CM)
    MINAMBAKKAM (NORMAL 77CM)

    1990
    97
    77

    1991
    79
    75

    1992
    73
    75

    1993
    90
    104

    1994
    118
    115

    1995
    53
    44

    1996
    126
    113

    1997
    157
    144

    1998
    72
    80

    1999
    53
    52

    2000
    40
    50

    2001
    108
    97

    2002
    99
    83

    2003
    31
    38

    2004
    57
    62

    2005
    211
    186

    2006
    89
    96

  22. Jeetu’s 10000% assurance. PJ’s hope. Kea out of country. These are indicating Definitely something happen today.

  23. Heavy bucketing downpour in ghatkesar Hyderabad….Very high rain rate…
    pocharam digital reading 69 mm till 14:00 pm..
    fully got drenched….Temperature down to 21

  24. Global investors meet TN happening in Chennai. brings in companies and jobs, at the same time we loose land and lakes in the outskirts.

    • This year rain must be like 2005 to stop land brokers from encroaching lake side areas and making it as plot..

      I remember during summer 2005 on the right side of the NH45 after toll gate before Chengalpattu bridge and exactly opposite side of Kolavai lake new plots were laid..nearly 1/3rd were sold out and came NEM which made kolavai lake full and excess water were drained to right side which is meant for that only..the plots were completed submerged and they cant sell it until 2012..

  25. Flood water from kurnool reaches srisailam today morning…..

    Srisailam present waterlevel – 795 feet
    (Full capacity 885 feet)
    Inflow 160000cusecs
    Outflow 1500 cusecs

  26. NEM 2015 prospect based on SST and Atmospheric Circulation:

    Comparing SST Anomaly and Atmospheric Circulations I could see totally different scenario comparing to previous ELNINO and Positive IOD Years. 2015 cannot be said as perfect Positive IOD year. When you compare the SST anomaly we can say the difference, but we could see the basin wide warming of SST.

    If we take similar examples, in 1987 and 2002 we did not had perfect Positive IOD, only central equatorial indian ocean and adjoining west indian ocean has some 0.5C positive anomaly but the eastern indian ocean did not had negative anomaly on the other hand it had normal anomaly, hence based on the values we cannot say it as perfect Positive IOD years. Also both the years NEM was normal.

    If we take 1997 into consideration, the Positive SST anomaly was seen from central to western indian ocean and adjoining south arabian sea, also Negative anomaly seen in Eastern IO. That was perfectly placed Positive IOD event. Hence 2015 NEM would be facing the basin wide warming IOD event. This would the testing time. One thing was
    common during these years like 1987, 1997 & 2002 was the south arabian sea had positive sst anomaly in August. The same trend continued in 2015 as of August. Neither 2009, 1991 or 1982 did not had this situation. This type of SST anomaly in August likely to remain constant in September. This anomaly should trigger good rainfall prospect during 2015 NEM season.

  27. Well said Mr.Partha..Our blog is common to all in spreading & learning the weather. I don’t know what happened, but severe action is recommended who wants to do unfair things in any manners..

  28. In the past 35 years, this is the first time that basin wide warming happens during SWM season. It happened in 1987, but was not that big like now. 2015 has a big role to play, expecting good things to happen during this NEM, since IO behaving unique this year.

  29. Pounding……………………………………Pounding…………….Pounding………………

    Sun I Meant…

  30. hmm, was expecting late night rains yestdy, but skipped Chennai, today also good chance for rains..lets see..waiting..

  31. deepaak back again with one awesome profile picture…
    deepu atchu told that in SWM your name should be Popup Deepaak…
    nice name na?

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