Monsoon Rains restricted to NE/East India

The Monsoon trough continues to run close to the Himalayan foothills almost across the western end to the eastern part, indicating the weaknesses in monsoon circulation. Meanwhile, a secondary branch of the aforementioned trough is seen dipping into Head Bay. This dip is associated with an upper air cyclonic circulation that is seen near Bangladesh and adjoining areas. Under its influence heavy rains are likely in the north eastern states along with parts of east India.

In the south, a trough at lower levels is seen running from Rayalaseema to Gulf of Mannar through Tamil Nadu. This may result in cloudy skies alongside some rains in parts of TN.

02. INSAT

Chennai will see a much needed respite from heat in the days to come. Maximum temperature will stay close to 35 – 36 C, with a possibility of rains.

Coimbatore to see a cloudy day with day time maximum temperature settling closer to 32 C. Chances of light rains persists.

Madurai to stay hot with day time maximum temperature close to 37 – 38 C. Possibility of widespread showers is high.

846 thoughts on “Monsoon Rains restricted to NE/East India

  1. Cola predicting 55 mm for next 10 days. Even if we get half of that amount, that will be around 30 mm till 12th. September guys have a lot catch up to do.

    • Why expecting half of the Cola prediction?
      It may rain more than 55mm quantum is not assure. September storms are violent.

  2. Good morning, not a single drop in Madipakkam, rains went down south, lets see whats in store today. humid and calm morning as usual.

  3. Let’s try to stick to weather today as much as possible and in English. If you want to write in other languages, please provide translation in English.

  4. Yesterday some areas like tambaram,ambattur got light rains and south of tambaram got very good rains..

    Today’s forecast!

    Today maximum temperature would be around 34-36c with skies partly cloudy/cloudy..There is also a good chance to open the account for September today at chennai!

  5. This Day In Weather History

    Matecumbe Key, FL (1935)
    Labor Day Hurricane hit Florida. Pressure at Matecumbe Key dipped to 26.35″/892.3 mb. Most intense hurricane ever to hit the U.S. with 200-mph wind. Tide of 15 feet; 408 dead.

  6. Mailam 60.5 tirukoilur 58,marakanam 47.5 these could be more too agro datas… Pudukottai 64.5 pdkt dist has received big nos Ponnamaravathi top with over 80mm

    • Your feature comment not stating September 2nd & 3rd week rains. But there is high chance for good TSs even in September 2nd week too, especially between 10th & 20th.

      • Lol
        Violent TS still not yet started for Chennai. Wait till sep end I will show the massive figures of September. One squall is enough to give 50mm+ for Chennai as like how villupuram and pudukkottai dists received yesterday

  7. India’s monsoon rains are likely to be below the prior forecast of 88 percent of the long-term average, the weather office chief said, which could make it the driest year since 2009.
    This would be the second straight year of drought- or drought-like conditions for only the fourth time in 115 years,
    “Overall monsoon rains will fall a notch or two below the 88 percent forecast that came out in June,” India Meteorological Department’s Laxman Singh Rathore told Reuters on Wednesday.
    The World Meteorological Organization said on Tuesday that the current El Nino weather phenomenon, which leads to dry weather in some parts of the world and causes floods in other, was expected to peak between October and January and could turn into one of the strongest on record.
    Rathore said the monsoon will start withdrawing from the western state of Rajasthan this weekend and farmers could be left with too little soil moisture to sow winter crops.
    In 2009 which saw the worst drought in nearly three decades, rains were 22 percent below the average of 50 years since 1951.
    http://news.yahoo.com/india-monsoon-rains-likely-below-prior-forecast-weather-110750727.html

  8. Vela, can tell the reasoning why chennai wont get rains in september. Just because is it located in the coast. Then how is marakannam getting rains.

    We all know Ehsan is putting zing zakh without any understanding.

    • That is not the way one should look at it. Chennai is not in exceptional area. We are not in leeward side of Himalayas.

      The present trough position might give more rains to interiors, Chennai will get lesser comparatively. We cannot rule out.

      • September is somewhat similar to the month of May I guess. TS are violent in nature and interiors has an slight edge over coastal areas. Do we get any TS in the month of May..Hardly anything when interiors are pounded . Like wise, I observe a similar pattern in the month of September n first week of October. And yes, when we see TS reaching coastal areas, we mostly see good rains.

    • Who said Vela told Chennai will not receive any rains this September? He has predicted 90 mm. Please do understand what he says before posting.

  9. Positive IOD started to rule. As per my predictions South Tamil Nadu getting good rainfall.

    Examples – Madurai 4 CM yesterday,
    Mayiladuthurai 10 CM day before, Peraiyur and Viralimalai 6CM, Vadipatti 5 CM.

    Even Pondy got 32 MM yesterday, Dinagar would be happy.

  10. If Elnino can provide 100 mm rainfall in Kanai and Acharapakkam (near melmaravathur) then how chennai alone differs, All ur theories on Elnino and linking to Chennai alone is not correct.

    Is there a study saying Elnino wll give less rains to chennai alone. All crap theories.

    • One day one good TS is enough. I dont know u guys will get that in ur mind. Please dont reply Chennai is coastal area.

      • Is it fair to expect TS on a daily basis even if it is hot n oppressive. If that is the case. Our August, September averages will be not less than 300 to 400 mm. When our wettest month November has just 12 rainy days (Minimum 2.5 mm) , is it fair to expect more than 5 or 6 rainy days in the month of September…. Thunderstorms ukku nnu oru mariyadhai illayaa, is it gonna happen as per our wish??..

      • It happens rarely. Even this July second fortnight we got rains almost daily. But that doesn’t happen always. That’s why long time average is considered.

      • Where did you get this info from? Last September we got 130 mm from 11 Rain days. 130 is below average for September

    • Som ppl relating everything to elnino jst for the sake of posting.. Even clouds, Steering, wind, moisture near chennai too dragged into this elnino 😦

    • Ponneri n Shar area, if you observe gets the first TS of the day invariably.Almost regularly. There is always a small red patch over that area. The area is just 30 to 40 kms ariel route..from our DWR.

    • i was too exhausted for past 3 days. Did not sleep. I was not able to come to blog. When i come Ehsan and Vela are not here.

  11. omg…wat a sep..its showing true colour….it was horrible humidity …..very very uncomfortable …….great sep…..dry days continues

  12. PJ,

    There is no theory return for Chennai or TN alone, We cannot take it as ZERO MM rainfall since ELNINO and +IOD combo exists. We need to see that whether we had normal rainfall in September across the state. The specific point is South Tamil Nadu for sure will get good rainfall during Positive IOD, due to support wind pattern below 10 N latitude.

    This time Positive IOD emerged late and it is also weak, hence we need to wait and see how much it affects the state. It is not stronger like 1997, that year Positive IOD emerged in July itself and become stronger, hence September rainfall for Chennai badly affected. This weak Positive IOD might help bring good precipitation across. Hence the theory of ELNINO and +IOD cannot be said as CRAP, it was observed well and written.

  13. second day- tamilnadu rocking like anything…..

    Vilupuram (Villupuram Dist
    11
    Viralimalai (Pudukkottai Dist), Maduranthagam (Kancheepuram
    Dist)
    8 each
    Gingee (Villupuram Dist)
    7
    Tirukoilur (Villupuram Dist), Thirukoilur arg (Villupuram
    Dist)
    6 each
    Tindivanam (Villupuram Dist), Polur (Tiruvannamalai
    Dist), Mylam AWS (Villupuram Dist), Virudhunagar (Virudhunagar Dist)
    5 each
    Madurai Airport, Pattukottai (Thanjavur Dist),
    Kancheepuram, Cuddalore, Vellore, Melur (Madurai Dist), Tozhudur (Cuddalore
    Dist), Alangudi (Pudukkottai Dist)
    4 each
    Trichy town, Mettupatti (Madurai Dist), Pondicherry (Puducherry
    Dist), Venbavur (Perambalur Dist), Tiruttani (Tiruvallur Dist),
    R.k.pet (Tiruvallur Dist)
    3 each
    Illuppur (Pudukkottai Dist), Pudukottai (Pudukkottai
    Dist), Vanur (Villupuram Dist), Mahabalipuram (Kancheepuram Dist),
    NeeDamangalam (Tiruvarur Dist), Chengam (Tiruvannamalai Dist),
    Marungapuri (Trichy Dist), Keeranur (Pudukkottai Dist), Barur (Krishnagiri
    Dist), Adirampatnam (Thanjavur Dist), Tiruvannamalai (Tiruvannamalai
    Dist), Kaveripakkam (Vellore Dist)
    2 each
    Poonamallee (Tiruvallur Dist), Sholingur (Vellore
    Dist), Cheyyur (Kancheepuram Dist)Chettikulam (Perambalur Dist),
    Wallajah (Vellore Dist), Gudiyatham (Vellore Dist), Paramakudi (Ramanathapuram
    Dist), Tiruvallur (Tiruvallur Dist), Poondi (Tiruvallur Dist),
    Tiruvarur (Tiruvarur Dist), Ambur (Vellore Dist), Sendurai (Ariyalur
    Dist)
    1 each

  14. PJ,

    There is no theory return for Chennai or TN alone, We cannot take it as ZERO MM rainfall since ELNINO and +IOD combo exists. We need to see that whether we had normal rainfall in September across the state. The specific point is South Tamil Nadu for sure will get good rainfall during Positive IOD, due to support wind pattern below 10 N latitude.

    This time Positive IOD emerged late and it is also weak, hence we need to wait and see how much it affects the state. It is not stronger like 1997, that year Positive IOD emerged in July itself and become stronger, hence September rainfall for Chennai badly affected. This weak Positive IOD might help bring good precipitation across. Hence the theory of ELNINO and +IOD cannot be said as CRAP, it was observed well and written..

  15. Observation,

    Did anyone saw the surface level to mid level wind direction for the past few days?

    Check at 850 and 700 HPA.

    If Chennai gets rainfall in the next 2 days, it has to come from South East. This is the change a Positive IOD will bring in. We are getting early sea breeze, this is due to lower level wind direction most of the time from SSE or SE. Positive IOD changes the wind anomaly to Southerly, this is why many articles have said and in the past also we have seen that rainfall is getting reduced during this phase over our state. This time this Positive IOD is weak, this might be an advantage, but if you see the Southern parts are getting heavy rain. Hence I would say to all of you not jump high by seeing rainfall over interiors and south. Interiors will get TS due to heat and South can get due to favorable wind and trough pattern, but NTN and coastal need to wait and see for something to happen. I am not ruling out rainfall for Chennai, but we have to wait and see how much in quantum we going to get. Remember when steering winds are not strong and not favorable, TS might lose its strength.

  16. Some Start to September Rainfall, light rains felt in Chennai and Surrounding Areas, ending 8.30 am on 03.09.2015

    Acharapakkam (near Melmaravathur) – 106
    Maduranthagam – 80
    Chithamur (near Mealmaravathur) – 41
    Kancheepuram – 41
    RK Pet – 30
    Thirukalukundram (near Mahabs) – 28
    Mahabalipuram – 20
    Poondi Agro – 19
    Minjur – 14
    Poonamalle – 13
    Sriperumbudur – 11
    Tiruvallur – 10
    Poondi Lake – 8
    Kadambathur (Near Tiruvallur) – 6
    Puzhal – 4
    Ambattur – 3
    Redhills Lake – 2

  17. Partha dont put ur theory based on one year 1997 of Chennai rainfall.

    Put ur analysis w.r.t Chennai rainfall. Here were are debating about Chennai rains. As far as TN is concerned TN as a whole will continue to put good numbers.

  18. Lots of special memories comes to me in September, also it gives joice that we are just a month ahead for NEM.

    1. My visit to Mumbai in 1997, the train trip was awesome, greenery after crossing Wadi station of NI KTK, then after Pune, especially the visit in that tunnels of western ghats between Pune and Karjat.
    2. My Spouse Birthday on 01st and My Sons Birthday on 05th.
    3. Joined KEA on 21st September 2012.
    4. Beginning of SWM Withdrawal.
    5. 10 day Festival at Tirumala, this 2 festivals, one on 14th Sept, another on October 13th.
    6. Navarathri, shopping for dolls in Mylapore street, which will be filled up the entire street.
    7. Thunderstorms anytime from anywhere in this month.
    8. Sun shifts south and completely covers the northern part of my house, which gives more cooler atmosphere near to windows and balcony in that side.
    9. Day temp will come down and not like June or July, even though it does not rain, temo will be under control.
    10. NEM nearing, always in mind.

  19. Tampa, FL (1935)
    The “Labor Day” hurricane hit Tampa, killing 400 people. Earlier, this intense storm had a center barometric pressure of 26.35 inches (892 mb) – the lowest recorded sea level pressure in the Western Hemisphere.

    • i’ have seen the Germany model mentioned in this article, near Chrompet, don’t know whether it is for R.W. harvesting, or for just to drain the water

  20. Featured comment above languages..One doubt has to clear by admin – Most of them (99%)..post tamil meaning words in english ..i.e. called tanglish..Only 1% post in pure tamil words….ok, 1% can be stopped, but how about the tanglish words..is that allowed or not..
    Translation for tanglish is a difficult one..

  21. Though it’s offtopic…I’ve to post this moderator excuse this
    After 3 days of sick leave, pride of GT went to school

  22. storm near tirupati? oh god,ECMWF is too awesome .they got it bang on target yesterday and tday as well..
    Again tday vellore ,tiruvannamalai,cuddalore,madurai ,ramnad ,nagai,&parts of delta districts..confidence is too high for AREAS close to 79E,10.7N… biggest storm of all will be forming over lankan east coast

  23. Banning Tamil in KEA. I just want to put one important and fantastic Thirukural that talks about rain.

    துப்பார்க்குத் துப்பாய துப்பாக்கித் துப்பார்க்குத்
    துப்பாய தூஉம் மழை

    ‘Thupparku Thuppaya Thuppaaki Thupparku
    Thuppaya Thoovum Mazhai’

    The rain begets food, we eat. The rain also itself forms food and drink to us.

  24. Rainfall totals of odisha from Jan 1 2015 to till now…
    Normal to above normal rainfall in Odisha this year
    (Rainfall from Jan 1 2015 to Sep 2 2015)
    =============================================
    Sundergarh – 1627 mm
    Deogaon -1433 mm
    Malkangiri -1431 mm
    Laikera – 1302 mm
    Jharshuguda – 1285 mm
    Chandanpur – 1277 mm
    Jagdalpur – 1184 mm
    Thakurmuda – 1126 mm
    Balasore – 1224 mm
    Jamshedpur – 1170 mm
    Burla – 1088 mm
    Tarapur – 1065 mm
    Altuma – 1056 mm
    Khairmal – 1000 mm

  25. மேலடுக்கு சுழற்சி காரணமாக தமிழ்நாட்டில் 3 நாட்களுக்கு அநேக இடங்களில் மழை பெய்யும்

    So no more Veppa Salanam. This is weird the same UAC happened in August they said it was veppa Salanam now they say it as UAC.

    http://www.dailythanthi.com/News/State/2015/09/02233820/3-days-due-to-the-rotation-of-the-overlay-of-many.vpf

  26. Madhyapradesh receives below normal to normal rains

    Rainfall totals in river basins till yesterday

    Kolar (Sehore) – 1037 mm
    Barna (Raisen) – 990 mm
    Guna – 975 mm
    Mahi (Jhabua) – 895 mm
    Tawa (Hoshangabad) – 864 mm
    Bansagar – 652 mm

  27. Why the KEATURE COMMENT. This is Chennai and our blog is chennai and TN centric. Why should we not use tamil words occasionly. Just because KEA does not know Tamil.

    I condem the KEATURED comment. Just because Ehsan is mod he cannot keature comments like this. This is height of misusing power. I demand Shankaran sir made as MoD. He will do much better work than KEA.

  28. one doubt…
    does elnino and lanina ll have impact in chennai during swm ts???
    then why we are getting excess swm during lanina ( 2011)
    and getting poor rainfall during elnino( 2009,1997)

  29. One man cannot force us to abandon occasional use of Tamil. Nothing wrong in that. It is not that all our comments are in Tamil.

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