SWM Monsoon withdrawal on the Cards

keaweather 2015, KEA Blog, SWM-2015

Monsoon Rains is restricted towards East-NE parts of the country as the trough axis gets anchored close to the foothills of Himalayas. These prevailing conditions will see heavy rains over the states along the foothills for next 2 days. Other North & Central parts of India may see isolated thunderstorms. Meanwhile Monsoon withdrawal is expected to commence in a few days of time as slight indications are seen over North-West. Generally it starts retreating from North Western part of the country when the monsoon winds slowly gets replaced by Dry air with a firmly grounded Anti-Cyclone.

Moving to Peninsular states, Interior and north coastal parts of Tamil Nadu would see increase in rainfall from tomorrow. Conditions are also expected to turn favorable in the coming days for widespread rains. Parts of Coastal AP, Telangana, Kerala, Odisha, TN, South interior Karnataka would see increase in rainfall as we move towards the weekend.
Kalmeshwar in Vidarbha records 160 mm rainfall. Cherrapunji in North East records 189 mm.
02. INSAT
Chennai: Hot & Humid conditions expected with Max temp likely to touch 35-36C. Scattered Rains are possible for the city and its outskirts.

Coimbatore: Dry day expected with clear skies. Max temp would be close to 31C.

Madurai: No respite for this temple city. Temperature expected to hit a high of 37-38C.

1,014 thoughts on “SWM Monsoon withdrawal on the Cards”

  9. @jupijove:disqus
    Please Come Here…Otherwise Failure Of NEM – 2015 Topic Will Spread. @ramisettisrinivasarao:disqus Hinting Of Normal to Below Normal NEM. And @kea_weather:disqus is Saying We Need a Fast Start NEM May Not Sustain!

    Reply

  11. Today asusual Hot weather expected with some good chance of Rains over few places of North Interior and Delta Dists and Some places of North Coastal Tamilnadu.
    Temperature in Chennai expected to be around 36’C

    Reply

  19. http://www.pressreader.com/india/the-times-of-india-new-delhi-edition/20150902/282097750468557/TextView

    http://levelacommodities.com/News/IITM-Predicts-Monsoon-Withdrawal-From-1-Sept/12/29/54

    IITM Predicts Monsoon Withdrawal From 1 Sept

    The southwest monsoon may start withdrawing even before it gave the country its share of rain. With dams half full in Maharashtra and the country staring at an overall rainfall deficiency of -12%, the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM) has sounded the monsoon withdrawal alarm from early September.

    Technically, the monsoon withdrawal is on schedule, only this time it is ending when large parts of the country have remained parched through the season. Poor rain has hit kharif crops in Maharashtra. Other parts of the country that are badly hit are central Maharashtra, northern Karnataka, eastern and western Uttar Pradesh and Punjab.

    Officials said water scarcity in these parts is imminent now, the concern compounded by the fact that there is no rain likely even before the withdrawal begins.

    Generally, a monsoon system forms over the Bay of Bengal by mid-September, and moves towards central India and the western parts of the country, thereby slowing the process of monsoon withdrawal to some extent. The recent forecast however shows an absence of any such monsoon system over Bay of Bengal by mid-September, in which case, the withdrawal may even be fast this year.

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  21. Third Driest August Since 1994 With 22 Percent Rain Deficit

    The rainfall in August this year was the third lowest in the country over 21 years, IMD said.This August, The country received around 204.2mm rainfall. The lowest August rainfall since 1994 was recorded in 2005 when the country received 190.1mm rain. In August 2009 there was 192.5mm rainfall due to effect of a full-blown El Nino during August and September, which was one of the factors that affected the rainfall this month.This year, the overall monsoon circulation was very weak. In August, rainfall is also the second lowest August rainfall for central India in the last 48 years since 1967. Central India’s total rainfall in August this year was 203.9mm, while during earlier years, the region would record rainfall well over 250mm-400mm in August.

    http://levelacommodities.com/News/Third-Driest-August-Since-1994-With-22-Percent-Rain-Deficit/12/29/566

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  22. Ehsan why are u holding with 3rd night, day after day after day. Not worried after any other day ?

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  24. Ehsan after waking up in the morning. Switches on his mobile. Sees Cola and sees 0 mm for 3rd night and says yes.Now lets go and taunt september guys in blog. What else i have to do. This is the most important thing in life.

    Did we do like this when ur August was falling apart. Show respect Ehsan.

    Reply

    • September has just started and its too early to speculate anything and that too about the TS activities for our region (City). How many times these TS have brought in lot of surprises ..When we least expect , it pours…Best recent eg..Sunday night 30th August-31st early morning super show for Central Madras areas..

      Reply

  30. Models forecast for tday’s thundertstorm activity..
    ecmwf:tiruvannamalai,tirchy,ariyalur,madurai
    gfs:cuddalore
    ukmo:ariyalur,salem,and few regions of delta districts
    jma;entire TN districts

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  33. 2 ridges influenced by 2 ACC’s.

    1. ACC from North KTK to South AP, the ridge of this ACC is forming around 14 N latitude,
    2. ACC over SE bay, another ridge from south to north at 82 E longitude.

    The above conditions will trigger heavy rainfall over Chennai. 04th and 05th Chennai might witness good rainfall. TS will come from East or South East direction.

    3. UAC over North Indian Ocean, South West of Srilanka will influence rainfall over South Tamilnadu during 04th and 05th.

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  40. Today morning was cool compared to yesterday. Winds are felt south east. If this continues for some time, within a week ,wind direction will reverse ( SW to NE ) over chennai..

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  42. Good showers expected by Meteoblue between 3rd and 5th September. Around 8-9 mm can be expected during this period.

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  50. Sel/GTS,

    The Arctic Oscillation moves counterclockwise, it extends up to 55 N latitude, now it has moved further north of around 56 N latitude. So far the Arctic Oscillation Index was showing Negative values, right it is becoming Neutral. This is why that LOW is moving North.

    Negative Phase of Oscillation brings the sub tropical trough to extend till tropical mid latitudes, when it becomes Neutral, the extension of trough will go back sub tropical region. I hope this AO Neutral phenomenon is going to be temporary. The AO will be back to Negative once again by mid of September but will be weak negative mode.

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  51. ♦ A trough in lower levels runs from Rayalaseema to Comorin area across Tamilnadu and
    extends upto 1.5 km above mean sea level.

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  52. heavy rainfall warning….chennai in all three days

    04 September (Day 3):♦ Heavy rainfall would occur at isolated places over Odisha, Coastal
    Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema, Coastal Karnataka, South Interior Karnataka, Tamilnadu &
    Pudducherry and Kerala.
    05 September (Day 4):♦ Heavy rainfall would occur at isolated places over SubHimalayan
    West
    Bengal & Sikkim, Odisha, Arunachal Pradesh, Assam & Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram
    & Tripura, Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema, South Interior Karnataka and Tamilnadu &
    Pudducherry.
    06 September (Day 5):♦ Heavy rainfall would occur at isolated places over Arunachal Pradesh,
    Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema, South Interior Karnataka and north Tamilnadu.

    Reply

  54. Decent rains all over central tamilnadu(trichy,parts of delta)

    ayiladuthurai (Nagapattinam Dist)
    10
    Upper anaicut (Trichy Dist)
    7
    Peraiyur (Madurai Dist), Viralimalai (Pudukkottai
    Dist)
    6 each
    Trp town (Trichy Dist), Grand anaicut (Thanjavur
    Dist), Vadipatti (Madurai Dist), Marungapuri (Trichy Dist)
    5 each
    Chettikulam (Perambalur Dist), Tirumangalam (Madurai
    Dist
    4 each
    Arimalam (Pudukkottai Dist), Lalgudi (Trichy Dist),
    Thuvakudi IMTI (Trichy Dist), Natham (Dindigul Dist), JayamkonDam (Ariyalur
    Dist), Illuppur (Pudukkottai Dist)
    3 each

    Reply

  60. OMG
    deluge warning for AP and Telangana…from 4 th september..
    GFS expecting above 250 mm in many places in second week

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  62. OMG
    Mayiladuthurai 100mm :O
    Heard from relatives that it was heavy downpour from sirkazhi to mayiladuthurai.

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  63. Mumbai deficit skyrockets
    Colaba – 447 mm
    Santa cruz – 317 mm
    Not sure if forecasts are looking positive for that region

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  70. With the upper level westerlies almost at Delhi latitude aloft , the Tibetan high is not seen established near its normal position, and rather a subtropical high is seen near north Arabian sea.

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  78. The extent of deep natured convection in north bay is just amazing. No doubt the highest summer monsoon rainfall across the world getting concentrated in head bay. Simply phenomenal!!!
    Till day, the scientists are quite puzzled at the head bay systems formation despite the lack of sst gradient…

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  85. Indian ocean is much special in so many aspects like the robust MJO , puzzling Indian monsoons, percentage accounting deadly tropical cyclones etc,. To add to this meteorologically amazing facts, the thermocline here is much deeper than the tropical Pacific and the process that raises and lowers this layer with help of ocean currents and atmospheric forcing is quite unique…the work of wyrtki equatorial jets…..

    Reply

      • No. Equatorial jet in oceans was discovered by the Scientist Klaus Wyrtki. Later these jets were named as Wyrtki jets.

      • Wyrtki is known for his work on understanding and forecasting El Nino. He established a tidal gauge network, gave an explanation for the Pacific oxygen minimum zone under the thermocline,[2] and discovered the ocean current jet that now bears his name, the “Wyrtki Jet”.[3] He is also known for his work on thermohaline circulation.

        https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Klaus_Wyrtki

      • The Gulf Stream, together with its northern extension towards Europe, the North Atlantic Drift, is a powerful, warm, and swift Atlantic ocean current that originates at the tip of Florida, and follows the eastern coastlines of the United States and Newfoundland before crossing the Atlantic Ocean. The process of western intensification causes the Gulf Stream to be a northward accelerating current off the east coast of North America.

  91. Lots of Observation in today’s IMD Mid Day.

    1. The southwest monsoon has normal over Coastal Andhra Pradesh and Tamilnadu &
    Pudducherry during past 24 hours ending at 0830 hours IST of today. I dont understand this line?

    2. The monsoon trough continues to run close to the foothills of Himalayas. A secondary
    branch of monsoon trough passes through Muzaffarpur, Purnea, Kolkata and thence
    southeastwards to eastcentral Bay of Bengal. The secondary branch, this the one i said today morning that axis might come down from Himalayas, this is in progress.

    https://disqus.com/home/discussion/keaweatherchennai/swm_monsoon_withdrawal_on_the_cards/#comment-2231320505

    3. Maximum temperature would rise by 1-­2°C over Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh & Delhi,
    Rajasthan and West Uttar Pradesh during next 2­3 days.

    Reply

  92. A fresh extended range forecast by the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM) has predicted that monsoon withdrawal generally begins from west Rajasthan around September 1 and north India from September 15. The monsoon usually withdraws from central India and parts of Maharashtra from October 1. But this year, while the monsoon will start withdrawing as per schedule from northwest India, its withdrawal from central India – which includes parts of north Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh – will be quicker and is expected to be over by September 15 or 20.
    http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/pune/Monsoon-to-beat-hasty-retreat-from-Maharashtra/articleshow/48769277.cms

    Reply

  94. There are two things which i feel is important without which man will suffer like anything.

    they are sunlight and water(both for potable and drinking purpose)

    when there is no rains people suffer,it breaks the economy of the country how many of us are able to help them or aware is a big question.we are dependable on SWM which covers 90% of the India area and we have the wettest place in the world.

    we have sun ,without light we cant survive we still are happy in this hot season because this will be one of the factors for TS.

    In European countries or place near north pole people strive for heat and they suffer from vitamin deficiencies.

    i saw in France where people take sun bath.

    In India we have both these conditions.how blessed we are? thanks to god and mother nature.

    But any deviation of rainfall in the minus category is causing whole damage.though it is nature and though we are responsible for global warming i couldnt digest that it is beacuse of el nino and other weather terms which we cant explain to farmers.

    what we have to do to make everyone happy with rain or shine?what is the use of education that we got when we cant support farmers.

    all that we can do is raise awareness and have self discipline and self oath to prevent environmental pollution and optimised usage of natural resources we are blessed in this country.

    in this blog apart from month winner debate everyones heart is filled with forecast of good rains across the country in the coming months which can make our economy better to some extent this year.

    Let rain and shine talk in the coming months and for TN/AP/KL lets have a EXCESS rainfall during NEM.

    Our experts will definitely bring that rains to our country as we love nature and hope nature does the same to us.

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  97. surface winds are from south west up to nearly 1.60 KMS. and then it shifts to west – & north west. but in Septmber even we could get massive rains from south some times. the present thundershower moving in north east direction and if it sustains same strength may be in one hour time, chances of some showers over south/central chennai. close to sea areas.
    ss

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  98. GTS,

    You were saying that 200 HPA ACC has disappeared and there is an ACC formed over North Arabian Sea at this level. This one not disappeared, it has just expanded and covered entire WP, MTC, South Asia and Gulf, there is a big circulation.

    Once again this ACC likely to be back over NE states from tomorrow or day after. This one then starts moving towards Myanmar. The expanded contour lines after 05th September, resembles that following September normality. This one is moving faster than usual towards SE direction. This one indicates the speed of SWM withdrawal as said in IITM.

    See the below link,

    http://www.ncmrwf.gov.in/All_times.php?Level=200&CDate=2015-09-02&Id=1&CType=Wind-Forecast&Model=NGFS-Outputs

    Reply

  99. From twitter
    Most man of the series in test match for india

    Shewag-5(104 matches)
    Sachin-5(200 matches)
    Ashwin-4(28 matches)
    Harbajan -4 (103 matches)
    Kapil dev -4(131 matches)
    Kumble -4(132 matches)
    Dravid -4(164 matches)

    Not sure about the stats but if true then Ashwin rocks & problem for haters

    Reply

      • yes but harbhajan,kumble also would have played more..out of 103,131 matches they would have played 50 matches in india..Ashwin out of 28 he would have played 18 and got 3 MOS ,1 in SL

      • I agree. But if u ask me, kumble and harbhajan played most matches together and they both shared wickets thus reducing the chances of even getting mom award. Moreover before harbhajan, kumble had chauhan and raju who also picked wickets. So apparantly his chances were low.

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