Monsoon Rains is restricted towards East-NE parts of the country as the trough axis gets anchored close to the foothills of Himalayas. These prevailing conditions will see heavy rains over the states along the foothills for next 2 days. Other North & Central parts of India may see isolated thunderstorms. Meanwhile Monsoon withdrawal is expected to commence in a few days of time as slight indications are seen over North-West. Generally it starts retreating from North Western part of the country when the monsoon winds slowly gets replaced by Dry air with a firmly grounded Anti-Cyclone.
Moving to Peninsular states, Interior and north coastal parts of Tamil Nadu would see increase in rainfall from tomorrow. Conditions are also expected to turn favorable in the coming days for widespread rains. Parts of Coastal AP, Telangana, Kerala, Odisha, TN, South interior Karnataka would see increase in rainfall as we move towards the weekend.
Kalmeshwar in Vidarbha records 160 mm rainfall. Cherrapunji in North East records 189 mm.
Chennai: Hot & Humid conditions expected with Max temp likely to touch 35-36C. Scattered Rains are possible for the city and its outskirts.
Coimbatore: Dry day expected with clear skies. Max temp would be close to 31C.
Madurai: No respite for this temple city. Temperature expected to hit a high of 37-38C.
Some ts in nay
Yes. But not destined for us
God morning blogers .the days of Ts is returning to chennai. π
When ?
From today or most probably tommorw ,)
Why TN not marked as seasonal ,lanka and s.tn usually gets good rainfall when elnino coincides with NEM
http://m.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/asia-fall-forecast-2015-el-nino-typhoons-india-drought/52075743
This is for fall Sel.
Blog very silent. Looks like all searching for sep 3rd rains in forecast
π¦ π¦
as per early indications it looks there will be great threat for NEM too just like SWM. Need to wait further before final conclusion
Threat meaning? Failure?
elnino is home ground for NEM. So we can not say complete failure. but there will be regular normal/below normal instead of excess.
I feel getting to near normal/ normal category for TN should not be a problem. Surely we will have more drier days that normal.
this problem might be arising more number of warm nino 3.4 SSTA than nino 1+2 SSTA (i.e. more central pacific warming).
We need a fast start. Not sure how long nem will sustain.
As expected. Uthiramerur got rains.
Still one more day left to see a real September month Ts .
Good morning friends, usual sunny morning expected
5.9 earthquake, 141km SW of Sarangani, Philippines. 2015-09-02 09:18:30 at epicenter (22m ago, depth 310km). j.mp/1PKi8pu
@jupijove:disqus
Please Come Here…Otherwise Failure Of NEM – 2015 Topic Will Spread. @ramisettisrinivasarao:disqus Hinting Of Normal to Below Normal NEM. And @kea_weather:disqus is Saying We Need a Fast Start NEM May Not Sustain!
I am saying near normal /normal
Good morning!
Rain has been postponed to 7th/8th
Today asusual Hot weather expected with some good chance of Rains over few places of North Interior and Delta Dists and Some places of North Coastal Tamilnadu.
Temperature in Chennai expected to be around 36’C
IMD expects thunderstorms to increase gradually in TN.
It poured in some parts of city yesterday night. It remained overcast with lightning around.
Good chance of hvy rain during nxt 3 days in madurai
Yesterday’s rain
Rains postponed to 8th sept as per gfs/cola
AP & TS States issued for heavy rains during next 2-3 days as per IMD.
I’m talking abt Chennai rain.. rest of tn will get good rain
6th night looks awesome for rains in Chennai.
Weak circulation has formed over S TN.. wind pattern changed over TN
141mm required from 28 days at a required rate of 5.03mm per day
http://www.pressreader.com/india/the-times-of-india-new-delhi-edition/20150902/282097750468557/TextView
http://levelacommodities.com/News/IITM-Predicts-Monsoon-Withdrawal-From-1-Sept/12/29/54
IITM Predicts Monsoon Withdrawal From 1 Sept
The southwest monsoon may start withdrawing even before it gave the country its share of rain. With dams half full in Maharashtra and the country staring at an overall rainfall deficiency of -12%, the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM) has sounded the monsoon withdrawal alarm from early September.
Technically, the monsoon withdrawal is on schedule, only this time it is ending when large parts of the country have remained parched through the season. Poor rain has hit kharif crops in Maharashtra. Other parts of the country that are badly hit are central Maharashtra, northern Karnataka, eastern and western Uttar Pradesh and Punjab.
Officials said water scarcity in these parts is imminent now, the concern compounded by the fact that there is no rain likely even before the withdrawal begins.
Generally, a monsoon system forms over the Bay of Bengal by mid-September, and moves towards central India and the western parts of the country, thereby slowing the process of monsoon withdrawal to some extent. The recent forecast however shows an absence of any such monsoon system over Bay of Bengal by mid-September, in which case, the withdrawal may even be fast this year.
These areas have to wait till June 2016…pathetic
Good Morning All,
As per IRI precipitation forecast, NEM likely to be Normal overall.
South TN likely to get excess rainfall.
Third Driest August Since 1994 With 22 Percent Rain Deficit
The rainfall in August this year was the third lowest in the country over 21 years, IMD said.This August, The country received around 204.2mm rainfall. The lowest August rainfall since 1994 was recorded in 2005 when the country received 190.1mm rain. In August 2009 there was 192.5mm rainfall due to effect of a full-blown El Nino during August and September, which was one of the factors that affected the rainfall this month.This year, the overall monsoon circulation was very weak. In August, rainfall is also the second lowest August rainfall for central India in the last 48 years since 1967. Central India’s total rainfall in August this year was 203.9mm, while during earlier years, the region would record rainfall well over 250mm-400mm in August.
http://levelacommodities.com/News/Third-Driest-August-Since-1994-With-22-Percent-Rain-Deficit/12/29/566
Oh 2005 aug also deficit . Can this year NEM be like 2005 ?
Expected this comment from someone the moment i saw 2005 being mentioned..
2005 will never happen again.. forget it
DJ…Can’t write off a repeat..Who knows, it may happen or even better that record..All possible with nature,,,
It’s possible to happen again..1943,1997 are similar years to 2005. Infact 1997 rainfall is huge than 2005 rainfall
Ehsan why are u holding with 3rd night, day after day after day. Not worried after any other day ?
I have already told u, this year it is very difficult to predict rains due to El-nino.
Ehsan after waking up in the morning. Switches on his mobile. Sees Cola and sees 0 mm for 3rd night and says yes.Now lets go and taunt september guys in blog. What else i have to do. This is the most important thing in life.
Did we do like this when ur August was falling apart. Show respect Ehsan.
September has just started and its too early to speculate anything and that too about the TS activities for our region (City). How many times these TS have brought in lot of surprises ..When we least expect , it pours…Best recent eg..Sunday night 30th August-31st early morning super show for Central Madras areas..
Nice pink ball in BoB
The equ outflow from the deep convection looks awesome in animation!!
Eastern end of the monsoon trough dipping into bay
Lot of activity on 3rd september, Cola / GFS may have removed the rains. As thala says, did it rain in Chennai as per models. No. Something is going to happen that night. Lets hope Chennai falls in line.
http://www.imd.gov.in/section/nhac/dynamic/nwp/48hgfs_850wind.htm
http://www.imd.gov.in/section/nhac/dynamic/nwp/48hgfs_mslp.htm
Pradep, i still cannot believe Sunday night super show for the city..And that too the best of the season for our area.
models predicted 0 mm
Yes
To partha, he said on 31st the ER wave had influence only in 15 N. But here is the influence area.
http://cawcr.gov.au/staff/mwheeler/maproom/OLR_modes/f.3.n1ER.html
I said this link prone to error.
Models forecast for tday’s thundertstorm activity..
ecmwf:tiruvannamalai,tirchy,ariyalur,madurai
gfs:cuddalore
ukmo:ariyalur,salem,and few regions of delta districts
jma;entire TN districts
no tamil nadu in below normal rains
strange! enhanced precipitation over horn of africa during 2nd week..
Once again heavy rain forecast for TN on 04th and 05th from IMD.
2 ridges influenced by 2 ACC’s.
1. ACC from North KTK to South AP, the ridge of this ACC is forming around 14 N latitude,
2. ACC over SE bay, another ridge from south to north at 82 E longitude.
The above conditions will trigger heavy rainfall over Chennai. 04th and 05th Chennai might witness good rainfall. TS will come from East or South East direction.
3. UAC over North Indian Ocean, South West of Srilanka will influence rainfall over South Tamilnadu during 04th and 05th.
Atmospheric ENSO index into historical context; El Nino’s expression is now stronger than 97-98 and 82-83
Flood situation remains grim in Assam, Arunachal – http://thne.ws/1O6Q0fW
Latest predictions about the El Nino say it will not just strengthen further but also continue till the spring of next year which means it is likely to impact next yearβs monsoon as well.
http://indianexpress.com/article/india/india-others/el-nino-dries-up-the-monsoon-could-have-impact-next-year-too/
Yesterday i have posted the same based on BOM update… (till June 2016, we will have to face this El Nino Dominance)
yes, as per predictions, our first part of next year monsoon may also get affected
From July 2016, Monsoon become normal…. (like what happened last year)
Night radar image.
lucky uthiramerur.
In the last 60 years, the average duration of an El NiΓ±o has been 10 months. But there have been instances of prolonged El NiΓ±o, as in 1986-87, when it lasted 19 months, and in 1968-69, when it continued for 18 months. In both cases, India experienced droughts in consecutive years.
http://indianexpress.com/article/explained/in-fact-el-nino-wins-imd-gets-the-consolation-prize/
Interesting and detailed Article
Climate change: 2015 will be the hottest year on record ‘by a mile’, experts say
http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change/climate-change-2015-will-be-the-hottest-year-on-record-by-a-mile-experts-say-10477138.html
Today morning was cool compared to yesterday. Winds are felt south east. If this continues for some time, within a week ,wind direction will reverse ( SW to NE ) over chennai..
Yes, it was comfortable today morning than yesterday, but one cannot say like it will change to SW by seeing SE winds today.
are the winds r from southeast?
I dont know just explaining him.
oh yeah.. just checked vvp,surface winds r from southeast
Selva,
The highlight of September, do you remember?
The low level clouds in the morning and evening will move faster from SE to NW direction?
So far nothing like that.
yeah but it will take some time..possibly by mid sep . but tis year so far its erratic
Today morning aroundd 8.30 AM , I noticed small spec of cloud moving from SE to NW. They soon dissppaeared.
Good showers expected by Meteoblue between 3rd and 5th September. Around 8-9 mm can be expected during this period.
ji you typed mm instead of cm
wanted to type mmm instead. But you wont understand, so typed mm itself
again bunking school?
how many days rain leave will you take in NEM?
Observation,
Monsoon axis might come down in latitude today from Himalayan foot hills. This is due to prevailing NW winds and dry air extending to North India.
Flash News,
A trough formed at 850 HPA level from South AP to South Tamil Nadu. Pic enclosed.
The main trough is near Sri Lanka!
when we can expect real Sep TS ?
sep 2016 hopefully…..its lanina
in another 2-3 days
non real Sep TS hasn’t started either
strong sub polar low pressure system seen moving over north ..gts mentioned about this yesterday
In Simple understanding : http://climatekids.nasa.gov/el-nino/
What is El NiΓ±o?
El NiΓ±o is a condition that sometimes occurs in the Pacific Ocean, but it is so big that it affects weather all over the world.
r u conducting weather classes too in your academy?
Planning to start
Sel/GTS,
The Arctic Oscillation moves counterclockwise, it extends up to 55 N latitude, now it has moved further north of around 56 N latitude. So far the Arctic Oscillation Index was showing Negative values, right it is becoming Neutral. This is why that LOW is moving North.
Negative Phase of Oscillation brings the sub tropical trough to extend till tropical mid latitudes, when it becomes Neutral, the extension of trough will go back sub tropical region. I hope this AO Neutral phenomenon is going to be temporary. The AO will be back to Negative once again by mid of September but will be weak negative mode.
β¦ A trough in lower levels runs from Rayalaseema to Comorin area across Tamilnadu and
extends upto 1.5 km above mean sea level.
heavy rainfall warning….chennai in all three days
04 September (Day 3):β¦ Heavy rainfall would occur at isolated places over Odisha, Coastal
Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema, Coastal Karnataka, South Interior Karnataka, Tamilnadu &
Pudducherry and Kerala.
05 September (Day 4):β¦ Heavy rainfall would occur at isolated places over SubHimalayan
West
Bengal & Sikkim, Odisha, Arunachal Pradesh, Assam & Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram
& Tripura, Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema, South Interior Karnataka and Tamilnadu &
Pudducherry.
06 September (Day 5):β¦ Heavy rainfall would occur at isolated places over Arunachal Pradesh,
Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema, South Interior Karnataka and north Tamilnadu.
so what r u going to do?
to follow jupi
Chennai has not mentioned in the report.. . .
read 1st line
What is the chance for Chennai?
Cola shifted most of the rains from TN to AP !!
typical cola
Decent rains all over central tamilnadu(trichy,parts of delta)
ayiladuthurai (Nagapattinam Dist)
10
Upper anaicut (Trichy Dist)
7
Peraiyur (Madurai Dist), Viralimalai (Pudukkottai
Dist)
6 each
Trp town (Trichy Dist), Grand anaicut (Thanjavur
Dist), Vadipatti (Madurai Dist), Marungapuri (Trichy Dist)
5 each
Chettikulam (Perambalur Dist), Tirumangalam (Madurai
Dist
4 each
Arimalam (Pudukkottai Dist), Lalgudi (Trichy Dist),
Thuvakudi IMTI (Trichy Dist), Natham (Dindigul Dist), JayamkonDam (Ariyalur
Dist), Illuppur (Pudukkottai Dist)
3 each
trichirapalli and chettikulam my native town and temple area getting gud rains.
yes ..r u happy……infact interiors like ur place ll enjoy more this month…peak swm month for those areas…
Good hotday, Late night TS possible for Chennai and good rains for Central and NTN.
Except few places, almost 90% of stations in KTK are in Deficit.
Belagavi City with nearly -55%
Agumbe with -45%
Click to access page2.pdf
Radar PAC shows no rainfall near the City as of today morning.
Mayiladuturai battered excellent rains down south n deltas Mayiladuturai 100mm π
Idhu mazha!!
Correctu..unga opponent teamunthaan aadraangale!!! π
No uac or system,still the convection seen sw tilt over north bay.. so Experts theories r damn true
What theory is it ?
remember the convection tilting in monsoon depression..lot of hypothesis put forward by experts from 80’s
Yeah, thought u are saying about some theory that relates convection tilting without any synoptic system
it applies same here as well
Isn’t there a uac seen at the mid level?
now?
MT dipping at surface level.
OMG
deluge warning for AP and Telangana…from 4 th september..
GFS expecting above 250 mm in many places in second week
bad luck for TN again
No……it is expecting heavy rains for North and west Tamilnadu..kerala karnataka also
best of luck for them as its monsoon time for them..if this failed then will end with huge deficit..neither good nor bad luck for TN during sep month..:)
Sep is for them
Precipitation outlook
OMG
Mayiladuthurai 100mm :O
Heard from relatives that it was heavy downpour from sirkazhi to mayiladuthurai.
good! u r having relatives all over tamilnadu…super
Many relatives around delta mostly
Trichy, pattukottai, nannilam, mayiladuthurai, Karaikal and Viruthachalam
Mumbai deficit skyrockets
Colaba – 447 mm
Santa cruz – 317 mm
Not sure if forecasts are looking positive for that region
cool
Sea breeze sets in ..early today
Another dog day in a row
So happy as usual…
More humid..that’s what irritating
The old Google logo looks better than the new one..edho maathanumenu… π
yes..new animated look..it may be sundar pichai’s design idea..
Shozhinganallur marsh land opposite to HCL looks better…
Cloudy..
With the upper level westerlies almost at Delhi latitude aloft , the Tibetan high is not seen established near its normal position, and rather a subtropical high is seen near north Arabian sea.
popups nnw and sw of chennai
lol
why lol
nothing
aug expecting rain in sep
We will expect rains in all 12 months ;). Thats our strength.
very bad news low clouds which ere coming from se have stopped
yesterday night
Chennai can expect some showers late night today. π
more bad news clouds moving from wsw to ene
why bad news, its normal.?
no this update is from aug team bad news for them. They were happy yesterday night because clouds were coming from se
π , Theres no point of them intruding. Its september’s game now.
lower level clouds will come from SE direction during morning and evening hours, that is normal in September, but TS will come from 700 or 500 HPA only.
POPUP near Kanchi and NW direction.
wind direction se to nw?
sorry sw to ne?
if i post this same…all ll say lol lol…atleat no lol for u
thats the power of september
lol…partha in aug team
but he doesnt care for him rain is important
super reddy n of amb
not able to find wind direction
TS from West South West to East North East.
thanks
There is a slight chance of light rains in Uthiramerur, Chengalpattu and Tambaram.
chengalpattu might miss…tambaram ll get
Expecting new popups to form.
Hope chrome city too?
Yes, hope so.
The extent of deep natured convection in north bay is just amazing. No doubt the highest summer monsoon rainfall across the world getting concentrated in head bay. Simply phenomenal!!!
Till day, the scientists are quite puzzled at the head bay systems formation despite the lack of sst gradient…
http://www.imd.gov.in/section/satmet/img/3Dsecse_nhc.jpg Sat img update -click the image
sw sector
radar nothing for chennai
insat img -multispectral rainfall
http://www.imd.gov.in/section/satmet/dynamic/insat.htm
GFS
Indian ocean is much special in so many aspects like the robust MJO , puzzling Indian monsoons, percentage accounting deadly tropical cyclones etc,. To add to this meteorologically amazing facts, the thermocline here is much deeper than the tropical Pacific and the process that raises and lowers this layer with help of ocean currents and atmospheric forcing is quite unique…the work of wyrtki equatorial jets…..
Can you please explain wyrtki equatorial jets and IOD relationship and how it aids IOD development.
Is wyrtki a new terminology?
No. Equatorial jet in oceans was discovered by the Scientist Klaus Wyrtki. Later these jets were named as Wyrtki jets.
Wyrtki is known for his work on understanding and forecasting El Nino. He established a tidal gauge network, gave an explanation for the Pacific oxygen minimum zone under the thermocline,[2] and discovered the ocean current jet that now bears his name, the “Wyrtki Jet”.[3] He is also known for his work on thermohaline circulation.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Klaus_Wyrtki
Hare Ooh Sambo..ennnenamo irukku,onnumae puriyala
The Gulf Stream, together with its northern extension towards Europe, the North Atlantic Drift, is a powerful, warm, and swift Atlantic ocean current that originates at the tip of Florida, and follows the eastern coastlines of the United States and Newfoundland before crossing the Atlantic Ocean. The process of western intensification causes the Gulf Stream to be a northward accelerating current off the east coast of North America.
Raining at kanchipuram
no rain there
No its raining there its a news update
may be somewhere in border. not around bus stand
How u saying
RIGHT NOW MY FRIEND IS THERE
You r CID Shankar!
No school?
given MC
MC?
medical certificate lol
3 days medical leave.
Yes…I think he got fully wet on Sundays rains
Boring today. Sep team owner gone missing
aug owner ran away. btn, pj is collecting buckets
Yes in Moore market
it is not boring new era of indian cricket under Kohli is very good
Owner could miss but members r there
lol
What hppn to Qbooni correlation… Seems Dr.rao is in deep sleep
no he is getting his flash comment ready
Lots of Observation in today’s IMD Mid Day.
1. The southwest monsoon has normal over Coastal Andhra Pradesh and Tamilnadu &
Pudducherry during past 24 hours ending at 0830 hours IST of today. I dont understand this line?
2. The monsoon trough continues to run close to the foothills of Himalayas. A secondary
branch of monsoon trough passes through Muzaffarpur, Purnea, Kolkata and thence
southeastwards to eastcentral Bay of Bengal. The secondary branch, this the one i said today morning that axis might come down from Himalayas, this is in progress.
https://disqus.com/home/discussion/keaweatherchennai/swm_monsoon_withdrawal_on_the_cards/#comment-2231320505
3. Maximum temperature would rise by 1-Β2Β°C over Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh & Delhi,
Rajasthan and West Uttar Pradesh during next 2Β3 days.
1) yesterday it rained in tn and ap normal rains
3) 1-2 c during 2-3 days
They should have mean’t that, ‘The SWM has been active over Coastal Andhra ……
A fresh extended range forecast by the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM) has predicted that monsoon withdrawal generally begins from west Rajasthan around September 1 and north India from September 15. The monsoon usually withdraws from central India and parts of Maharashtra from October 1. But this year, while the monsoon will start withdrawing as per schedule from northwest India, its withdrawal from central India – which includes parts of north Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh – will be quicker and is expected to be over by September 15 or 20.
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/pune/Monsoon-to-beat-hasty-retreat-from-Maharashtra/articleshow/48769277.cms
I hope the first announcement on withdrawal from IMD will be on 06th. I am saying this for the past few days.
Good content Shri, thanks for sharing.
ts over kovalam and surrounding….
lol
There are two things which i feel is important without which man will suffer like anything.
they are sunlight and water(both for potable and drinking purpose)
when there is no rains people suffer,it breaks the economy of the country how many of us are able to help them or aware is a big question.we are dependable on SWM which covers 90% of the India area and we have the wettest place in the world.
we have sun ,without light we cant survive we still are happy in this hot season because this will be one of the factors for TS.
In European countries or place near north pole people strive for heat and they suffer from vitamin deficiencies.
i saw in France where people take sun bath.
In India we have both these conditions.how blessed we are? thanks to god and mother nature.
But any deviation of rainfall in the minus category is causing whole damage.though it is nature and though we are responsible for global warming i couldnt digest that it is beacuse of el nino and other weather terms which we cant explain to farmers.
what we have to do to make everyone happy with rain or shine?what is the use of education that we got when we cant support farmers.
all that we can do is raise awareness and have self discipline and self oath to prevent environmental pollution and optimised usage of natural resources we are blessed in this country.
in this blog apart from month winner debate everyones heart is filled with forecast of good rains across the country in the coming months which can make our economy better to some extent this year.
Let rain and shine talk in the coming months and for TN/AP/KL lets have a EXCESS rainfall during NEM.
Our experts will definitely bring that rains to our country as we love nature and hope nature does the same to us.
My area getting rain from that red pottu near kovalam..thaiyur must be receiving heavy rain now..
Thaiyur gets 1.2 mm
mmm
1.2 mm in Kelambakkam(Raijin Weather)
surface winds are from south west up to nearly 1.60 KMS. and then it shifts to west – & north west. but in Septmber even we could get massive rains from south some times. the present thundershower moving in north east direction and if it sustains same strength may be in one hour time, chances of some showers over south/central chennai. close to sea areas.
ss
GTS,
You were saying that 200 HPA ACC has disappeared and there is an ACC formed over North Arabian Sea at this level. This one not disappeared, it has just expanded and covered entire WP, MTC, South Asia and Gulf, there is a big circulation.
Once again this ACC likely to be back over NE states from tomorrow or day after. This one then starts moving towards Myanmar. The expanded contour lines after 05th September, resembles that following September normality. This one is moving faster than usual towards SE direction. This one indicates the speed of SWM withdrawal as said in IITM.
See the below link,
http://www.ncmrwf.gov.in/All_times.php?Level=200&CDate=2015-09-02&Id=1&CType=Wind-Forecast&Model=NGFS-Outputs
From twitter
Most man of the series in test match for india
Shewag-5(104 matches)
Sachin-5(200 matches)
Ashwin-4(28 matches)
Harbajan -4 (103 matches)
Kapil dev -4(131 matches)
Kumble -4(132 matches)
Dravid -4(164 matches)
Not sure about the stats but if true then Ashwin rocks & problem for haters
He is lucky to have played more tests in India.
yes but harbhajan,kumble also would have played more..out of 103,131 matches they would have played 50 matches in india..Ashwin out of 28 he would have played 18 and got 3 MOS ,1 in SL
I agree. But if u ask me, kumble and harbhajan played most matches together and they both shared wickets thus reducing the chances of even getting mom award. Moreover before harbhajan, kumble had chauhan and raju who also picked wickets. So apparantly his chances were low.
radar slowly getting active π , may be today trailer for sept…..
huge setback likely
why?Z??
for aug team
Y problem do u remember august scored more runs in first five days nearly 100 mm.;)
let Asad say what he wants. He is talking even before September opened its account.
Hmm π