Monsoon active over West Bengal and North East India

The southwest monsoon has been active over West Bengal and North East India for the past 24 hours and would continue to be active over Northeast India in the coming days. As a result, widespread heavy to very heavy rainfall would occur over North Eastern states in the next 48 hours. As we are now in the month of September, bulk of rainfall activity will start to move down to the Southern peninsula. There will be a significant increase in the thunderstorm activity over TN, interior Karnataka and south Andhra Pradesh by the end of this week.

As forecasted by KeaWeather, Meghalaya records extreme rainfall with Cherrapunji getting 387 mm and RKM Cherrapunji 359 mm.

02. INSAT

Chennai will see a hot and humid day with temperature soaring close to 37c. Sky will be partly cloudy with chance of isolated thunderstorms during evening/night.

Coimbatore to remain hot with max temperature expected to reach 33-34C. Partly cloudy skies with less chance of rainfall.

Madurai will continue to be very hot with max temperature moving closer to 39C. This hostile weather will continue for the next 2-3 days and will improve thereafter.

884 thoughts on “Monsoon active over West Bengal and North East India

  1. It started yesterday itself. In 2 hours first maiden over would have been bowled by August spinner in this turning wicket.

    Hurry and score. Month will get over before even realising it.

  2. So aug has been normal this year with an average of close to 140mm.. expected lot more but back to back UAC’s spoiled our chances of more rains

  3. Hope everyone remembers the contest rules clearly. It’s average of nunga and meena.

    Even if nunga gets 200 mm, if meena gets 80 mm or lesser, August wins.

  4. Thats it 2015 swm!!! Experts expecting swm to start its withdrawal soon and by the end of 2nd week it will b withdrawn from northwest, north and central india..cyclonic system in pacific likley to affect sep rains.. However parts of s.peninsula and northeast india would get rains for next 10-15 days & WD may cause some rains over parts of north india..

  5. September 1,

    Normal SWM withdrawal begins today as per IMD. This is the observation of past 50 years record and followed. Normally today is the day for SWM withdrawal to begin, Insat picture too shows the dry air occupying NW and parts of North India, however this time it might take at least another 4 days for IMD to declare the first withdrawal from NW India.

    For IMD the 850 HPA level ACC has to set in for declaring the SWM withdrawal, this is expected to happen by second week as per GFS.

  6. What an useless SWM monsoon in AP TS KTK Maharastra .We got comparatively more rain even in March April May 2015
    Hyderabad likely to end with 70 to 80 percent deficit (Almost no rainy season for Hyderabad this year)
    Our main sources of water like Agumbe Shirali performed as worst as they could
    Agumbe and other catchment areas deceived us badly
    Agumbe (minus 1953 mm deficit)
    Raichur (70 percent deficit)
    Kurnool (60 percent deficit)

  7. West Bengal Orissa and NE states quietly absconded from 2015 drought…odisha is very lucky state as it is seldom visited by droughts

  8. The US Centre for Climate Prediction sees the north of the country drying up fast during the first two weeks of September. But occasional showers would help cool things over the southern parts during this period.
    It sees normal to above normal rain for the South-East (coastal Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh) of the country. The rest of the peninsula may also benefit from passing showers.
    A short-to-medium term forecast put out by the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology suggests the following:
    August 30 to September 3: Rain for East and North-East.
    September 4 to 8: Rain for South India.
    http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/economy/agri-business/monsoon-may-start-withdrawing-from-northwest-india-from-tuesday/article7600207.ece

  9. Fine Memory of September Month,

    September is the month for SWM time pass, it cannot revive during this month, either its ELNINO or Normal year, it will be raining partially till it withdraws completely. The giants like Mumbai will get only passing showers, may be 1 to 2 cm in a day, not more than that.

    I have been to Mumbai in 1997 September, it would be cooler and some rains occasionally and also vinayak chaturthi time, was full of festival across the city. During nights, the cloud will come faster and pour and disappear. That was awesome time i was in Mumbai. I have been to Mumbai in April-May during school times summer vacation, then 1997 September, then 1998 October-November, then 2007-2008 December/January new year.

    I liked September the most.

    I always prefer train journey to Mumbai. It left in the morning at Egmore, the heat was always there, then by evening around 07.00 PM the train reached Wadi Junction, the northern part of Karnataka, till that time it was hot, after reaching Sholapur around 22.00 PM, it suddenly became cooler and heavy rain started to pour, from that place i have started to experience cooler climate, it was like season change happened inside the train. From then on till October first week, it was mild weather with Occasional showers. When i came back to Chennai by second week of October, i have become eager and NEM was around the corner, again good climate started. Overall September is a month for some occasional showers for North, Central and West India.

  10. The upcoming series between India and South Africa and all subsequent bilateral series between the two countries will henceforth be titled “The Mahatma Gandhi-Nelson Mandela series,” the cricket boards of both nations jointly announced.

    South Africa will embark upon a 70-day tour of India from September 29 for three T20Is, five ODIs and four Tests. The Test series between the two nations will be for the Freedom Trophy, a tribute to Gandhi and Mandela for their relentless fight for freedom and civil rights, the boards announced.

    • yes, The monsoon’s retreat, beginning from northwest India, is declared by IMD based on three criteria observed in the region — absence of rain for at least five straight days, a significant drop in moisture and reversal of monsoonal winds by the formation of an anti-cyclone. “We are seeing signs of the first two conditions. In the next few days it is likely that all three criteria will be met,” as Per Mr. Rathore IMD
      t.o.i

  11. last week anomaly chart shows an anticyclonic circulation dominated nw india and westward moving anticyclone from pacific into bay

  12. September 1st today and it will begin with a dry note. But don’t worry guys.. you got a ‘dokku’ 4 balls ,before hitting the 5th ball for six..and sixth for a 4 , and the same repeats every over..with more 4’s than 6’s

  13. Strong El Niño but a warm Indian Ocean

    The 2015 El Niño is now the strongest El Niño since 1997–98. The tropical Pacific Ocean and atmosphere are fully coupled, with sea surface temperatures well above El Niño thresholds, consistently weak trade winds, and a strongly negative Southern Oscillation Index. Weekly tropical Pacific Ocean temperature anomalies (i.e. difference from normal) in the central Pacific are now at their highest values since 1997–98, though still remain more than half a degree below the peak observed during 1997–98.

    for More Details – http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/#tabs=Overview

  14. All surveyed models indicate that NINO3.4 will remain above El Niño thresholds until at least the start of 2016, with most models indicating the peak NINO3.4 values of the event are likely to occur during early to mid-summer.

  15. Giving my view on the recent update from Australian Met.

    NINO 3 and 3.4 of ENSO touches 2.0C. Strongest of ELNINO years in the history. It was lagging by month time when comparing to strong ELNINO year of 1997, but as i said last month it will rapidly increase from now on, like that it has rapidly increased. In 1997 August it touched 2.1 C, now 2.0 C, hence another strong ELNINO in the making.

    West pacific SST anomaly has increased in the past 2 weeks from 1.0 C to 1.2 C, this is another reason for SWM failure in the month august, which faced -22% rainfall, In the month of July WP has some negative anomaly.

    Experts will wait till September for Positive IOD confirmation. The IOD value 0.57, which is higher than threshold limit of 0.4C, but it has to sustain through out the month to declare Positive IOD emergence.

    http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/#tabs=Sea-surface

  16. I am new to this blog, but I am a keen watcher. Since September is my favourite month thought of posting my first comment. I also watch couple of other weather blogs in Bombay,Gujarat and another in Chennai. The difference between Mumbai and Gujarath mostly daily weather of that particular region is posted by by them. Here apart from other every thing else also find place here. Though many post but only very few – may be four or give lot of technical inputs – Some of them looks like repetition posted elsewhere – since there two or three blogs related to Chennai . It is like reading morning news paper same news in different papers -the only difference is author being same here. Since September is my favourite month naturally I expect lot rains during this month.

  17. India paceman Ishant Sharma and three Sri Lankan players have been charged for misconduct during the ongoing third Test between the neighbours, the International Cricket Council (ICC) said on Tuesday.
    Thirimanne, Chandimal and paceman Dhammika Prasad, who had an animated altercation with Ishant on Monday, have also been charged with code of conduct breaches, the ICC said.
    “Details to be announced after the conclusion of the Test,” the governing body said on Twitter.

  18. @Chennai Puyal:disqus
    Welcome to the blog. What is the purpose of visiting many different blogs? Follow 1 blog, whichever it may be. The more blogs you visit, the more confused you will become.

  19. There was a Cyclone or Depression in Bay by end of September and first week of October. Chennai got heavy rainfall that time, it started by end of September, may be around 29th or 30th, we got 2 days of rainfall, finally that system went to AP or Odisha. This happened in 90’s, can anyone pull out the year and the data about that system?

  20. Another one to twist.. sorry tis “may” even waste ur precious time… Tis giant is known for its big feeder bands &strong cross eq flow .. srilanka got the max benefit thru tis system. Few places in lanka got 80,70 cm from tis cyclone event..adirmapatinnam in TN got 9cm from tis one..identify tis system

  21. SWM withdrawal pattern in the past 10 years.

    The average time it takes to complete the start to end of withdrawal is 27 days.
    The average time takes to begin the withdrawal 21 days later than normal date of Sept 01.
    The end of SWM withdrawal leads to 4 days earlier than normal date of October 15th.

    The faster withdrawal happened in 2007, it took 15 days to complete from start to end.
    The slower withdrawal happened in 2013, it took 41 days to complete from start to end.

    The late withdrawal beginning happened in 2007, started on 30th Sept.
    The early beginning happened in 2005, started on 02nd Sept.

    The early end date of SWM was in 2005, 10-10-2005.
    The late end date of SWM was in 2010, 28-10-2010.

    However if withdrawal starts later, then it ends faster, if starts on time, it takes more time to end. Let is start withdrawal after 10th September.

    screen shot enclosed.

  22. We need heavy rains in september, as there could be lull for 10 days in october. if it rains above 25 centimeters in september, the following NEM rains would immediately recharge all lakes.

    going by the trend noticed, we will get huge thunderstorms by late evening/night as normally high clouds produce massive rains for longer duration if other condition suits well.

    now radar indicates some showers over north east of chennai which is a welcome sign. for September, in fact northerly winds can also produce massive rains.

    ss

  23. Significant tropical cyclone activity across central and eastern Pacific Ocean     
     
    Hurricanes Kilo, Ignacio and Jimena remain away from land areas

    A tropical depression close to the west coast of Mexico is not expected to reach hurricane intensity

    Rare tropical cyclone affects Cape Verde islands

    Tropical cyclone Fred is the first tropical cyclone to affect the Cape Verde island group since reliable satellite imagery became available in the 1970s

    Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) remains weak

    For the last several weeks the MJO has been weak and not likely to have been a significant driver of tropical weather

    International models forecast the MJO to remain weak for at least the next two weeks 

    El Niño strengthens but a warm Indian Ocean

    Sea surface temperatures across the tropical Pacific Ocean suggest the current El Niño event is the strongest since the 1997–98 event

    • It’s due to MJO’s leading edge (though weaker)?? But full pledged (weaker) MJO will pull this cloud mass towards north just after east-Pacific hurricanes start weakening.

    • But still it’s not stronger if we see the strength in Nino. One more thing is that actually SSTA between Nino 3.4 & Nino 1+2 will vary uniformally in classical Elnino years. Unfortunately 2015 Elnino lacking this style and stayed in prolonged strong Elnino modoki with higher Nino 3.4 SSTA to Nino 1+2 SSTA in most of the days. So Elnino-modoki is not good for SWM/NEM. If Nino doesn’t stay in classical mode with strong Nino 1+2 SSTA relative to Nino 3.4 SSTA, then NEM will face the same fate as SWM. But can be survived by normal trend due to this weak +ve IOD.

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