Low over Odisha to seed heavy rains over East & Central parts of India for the next 24 hours

The Low Pressure Area (LPA) formed over West Central and adjoining NW Bay of Bengal now lies over the land mass of Odisha. This will make the eastern end of monsoon trough to dip. The next 24 hours will see heavy to very heavy rainfall over Odisha, Chhattisgarh, North Interior and North Coastal AP, East Madhya Pradesh and Vidharbha.

In the past 24 hours, there was widespread rainfall recorded in Odisha (Saintala – 110 mm) and moderate rainfall activity was seen in Chhattisgarh and West Bengal.

Due to trough dipping south, increased rainfall activity over North Tamil Nadu is likely to continue for a day or two and decrease thereafter. In North, the monsoon axis runs close to the foothills of the Himalayas, Kaiserganj in Uttar Pradesh records 214 mm rainfall in last 24 hrs. At North East, there is no letup in the floods in Assam with Badatighat getting 130 mm.
02. INSAT
Chennai – Day Temp around 36C. Rain or Thundershowers likely in the evening or night.

Coimbatore – The City also called “The Manchester of south India” will see Cloudy sky during the day and temp around 32C.

Madurai – Day temp will be around 37C. Thundershowers are possible towards evening or night.

969 thoughts on “Low over Odisha to seed heavy rains over East & Central parts of India for the next 24 hours

  1. Is there other Manchester for north India?? Similarly “Tenali (Guntur district, AP)” called as “Venice of the East”. I don’t know what could be the reasons for these type of titles. These titles might be given by the Britishers ๐Ÿ™‚

  2. for my surprise the dry tirupati hills turned dark green and clouds hanging along the hills….spectacular to watch…..so far rainfall this year:436mm…but airport lagging behind with overall 332mm…
    thanks to the monsoon

  3. I will be shifting to Bangalore guys in a month. Will be missing NE monsoon in Chennai this time ๐Ÿ˜ฆ

  4. Good morning to all,

    Ithu soora puli, Ithu seerum puli, Ithu thanmana puli, Ithu payum puli, Ithu pathungum puli, Ithu simha puli, Ithu idi thangum puli, Ithu panbattu puli, Ithu anbu puli, Ithu paasa puli, Ithu nagareeka puli, Ithu mariyathai puli, Ithu kalanga puli, Ithu thakum puli, Ithu thanga puli, Ithu vaira puli, Ithu thaana puli, Ithu vazhum puli, Ithu vazhthum puli, Ithu vanagum puli, Ithu vananga puli, Ithu thairiya puli, Ithu kaattu puli, Ithu kattukuadanga puli, Ithu pacha puli..

    Mothathula Ithu TR Pacha Puli….

  5. Existence of Lepakshi, Andhra Pradesh
    When Sita was abducted by Raavan, they bumped into Jatayu, a demi-god in vulture form, who tried his best to stop Raavan. Lepakshi, in Andhra Pradesh, is said to be the place where Jatayu fell. Ram, accompanied by Hanuman, met the dying Jatayu. Ram helped him attain moksha by uttering the words “Le Pakshi”, which is Telugu for “Rise, bird”. There’s also a large footprint in that area which is said to be that of Hanumana’s.

    • The same story said to be happened in my native, which is name as Thiruputkuzhi, this place on the NH4 i.e. Chennai to Bangalore highways. approx 40 KM from Sriperumbudur. Exactly on the highways, there is a Jatayu temple built near the temple pond, where Rama gave moksha to Jatayu and created the pond to take bath in it.

  6. The recent break like/ weak phase of Swm has been quite a significant one so far this season..with active period going down a lot on the scale…

  7. surprising!! this paper has a same view as i had on those sub tropical systems influence on our swm.. with the satellite image observation i had my own imagination quite similar to their findings and i thought during lanina years they extend more north leading to strong swm surge

    http://www.igu.in/18-2/6paper.pdf

    • that is brilliant article i have read in recent times.

      1. I found matching at moment is that on what said on MJO eastward propagation, which suppresses the monsoon. This is happening right now. I will post that link for you, we had eastward moving MJO link. It happened from 24th to 25th in Phase 1, See the image.

      2. The Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) over the Indian Ocean were
      above normal. In contrast, during 2006, the west Pacific warm pool was confined over that region; it did not extend east of International
      Date Line (IDL). Kalsi et al., (2006) have mentioned that SST anomalies
      over Nino 4 region of Pacific Ocean have played an important role in ISMR variation in recent years and one of the main causes for occurrence of drought 2002 may be attributed to such high abnormal warming over western Pacific.

      I have mentioned this last month, if West Pacific SST is above normal then SWM might be confined to below normal.

  8. Review:
    Movie Name: Rainforest, Agumbe
    Actors: Sel, GTS, Gajendran
    Story, Screenplay, Dialogue, Direction = Mr.Gokul.
    Director: Mr.Gokul has provided such a movie that all of us felt that we also went to Agumbe with them & enjoyed the tour.
    Support Role: Mr.Gajendran has provided a super support role to the heroes & no doubt in that movie he’s a star.
    Hero: Sel has acted as a superstar & researched about the mystery of the rainforest.
    Villain: Police entry made us to seat in edge, disturbed our heroes.
    Main Villain: Leech again made us to seat in edge, pulled some blood from our hero, but our heroes finally won it.
    Screenplay & dialogues : GTS have beaten all the tamil movies storyline.
    Rating: 10/10

  9. Slowly Easterlies are trying to dominate the South China Sea…very early . this might just creep into SE Asia and push the easterlies into the Bay . we may end up getting NEM conditions in Late september ..correct me if am wrong

      • I dont know which level is this because there is no indication on that site…this picture usually coincides with the season…i remember last year that in late sep/ early oct the easterlies gradually sneak into malayasian peninsular from south china sea…this time much ahead i am seeing easterlies in philliphines…

      • I don’t think the easterlies can be seen this early even in south China sea , as we still have the Monsoon Trough running close to north Vietnam and north Philippines latitude, and alongside with our Indian Monsoon Trough still in normal position. The ITCZ has to be seen close to 5 N to 10 N latitude , for actual easterlies to be seen .

  10. Brilliant Article Selva, that is brilliant article i have read in recent times.

    1. I found matching at moment is that on what said on MJO eastward propagation, which suppresses the monsoon. This is happening right now. I will post that link for you, we had eastward moving MJO link. It happened from 24th to 25th in Phase 1, See the image.

    2. The Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) over the Indian Ocean were
    above normal. In contrast, during 2006, the west Pacific warm pool was

    confined over that region; it did not extend east of International
    Date Line (IDL). Kalsi et al., (2006) have mentioned that SST anomalies
    over Nino 4 region of Pacific Ocean have played an important role in ISMR variation in recent years and one of the main causes for occurrence of drought 2002 may be attributed to such high abnormal warming over western Pacific.

    Do you remember Selva, I have mentioned this last month, if West Pacific SST
    is above normal then SWM might be confined to below normal.

    3. The intensification of the Mascarene High strengthens the cross equatorial
    flow in the form of east African low level jet, and the corresponding monsoon current over the Arabian Sea. jet, and the corresponding monsoon current over the Arabian Sea.

    Mascarene high was weak this time and was in off position.

    My doubt is on Sub Tropical Area. They say that they have observed from 850-250 hpa levels on the cold fronts below 30N and below 30S latitudes, but the cold fronts/warm fronts of sub tropical regions are generally observed at mid levels, that is from 700-500 HPA levels, which will be perfect for analysis. This is where the interactions of Tropical and Subtropical regions goes. Will it include 850 HPA levels, i doubt on that?

  11. Easterly wind anomalies at 850 HPA has increased over EQ IO, this is the indication of emerging Positive IOD. As per Australian Met the value of IOD by this sunday should be increasing beyond 0.5C.

    1. IOD – The latest update on CPC highlighting the point on Easterly Wind Anomaly has increased over EQ IO comparing to the previous week.

    2. They have also mentioned on MJO counter clockwise movement tracked, that is Eastward Propagation, this will suppress ISMR, this event quoted in the article shared by Selva, the same event happened in 2002. This break monsoon has been longer this season as quoted by GTS today.

    MJO likely to be suppressed for some more days.

    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjoupdate.pdf

  12. Good days going to start In Hyderabad from today….
    Hyderabad Target : 500 mm till September 10th
    I am 100 percent confident that Hyderabad will receive 500 mm for sure

    • Partha,

      This is almost close to normal position. Climatologically, at this time of the year it would be anchoring itselves close to north Bangladesh and bordering Tibet. So this is not any appreciable anomaly in terms of position. And btw, in October the mean position is still close to north Myanmar, and even in November it will be seen close to north Malaysia. It will be seen over MTC, centering around Brunei only in March..and will not sit significantly in NEM and winter time around the same place , but a huge ridge from West Pacific takes the control

  13. Convection building up enormously over Marathwada and North West Telangana and North Karnataka which is very much needed to drive rains into Telangana areas

  14. After the western pacific typhoons, now its time for central eastern pacific to be in action..3 Hurricanes in actions .. Kilo, Ignacio & Jimena.. Hurricane kilo is weakened to storm, ignacio already to hurricane, but jimena is in a making to a Category 5 hurricane

  15. Sunkesula project in Kurnool set to discharge water into Kurnool Kadapa canal….
    2 days back Some good rains in western parts of Kurnool are mainly responsible..
    On that day Nandanavaram got 84 mm (Kurnool), Mantralayam – 76 mm (Kurnool)

  16. “Possibility of normal to slightly above normal rainfall activity likely over south Peninsula between September 4 and 13,” – IMD

  17. Omg….what happened to this august… Really very pathetic… Failure of august is not common for chennai unlike june / july / sep….. I didnt see one massive ts this august…. Last five years there was super august with and above 200 mm..el nino doing his job…hope same elnino should do his project over nem too….

  18. FLASH NEWS:
    JMA latest forecast showing good rainfall for Chennai this september. Chennai will get above normal rainfall in september.

  19. It is picking up a system near SAP coast around mid september. IT was the first model which correctly predicted about the system in Arabian sea during late august period in its August 1st week forecast. So get ready for good rainfall in coming weeks.

    • Yea get ready for another disappointment.. Bloggers are used to this.. First let us try to predict 24hrs rf correctly then will go into +15., 20 days advance..

      • JMA in its august first week forecast had picked up a system in SE AS around 20th August when all others models were showing MISO event. It was bang on target.
        NOw it showing activity near SAP coast around mid september. So we have to give weightage to it as it has done well in the past.

      • In wat way it has affected us or southern Peninsula?? Deficit is growing big not down.. U were saying western ghat areas would be flooded looking at tat output ๐Ÿ™‚

  20. Going by latest JMA mid range forecast, Chennai may register above normal rainfall this september and TN nomal rainfall.

    • but JMA showing good rainfall for Chennai(but not for TN) in september especially from mid September till september end. Also it is picking up some mjo activity from mid sep to late sep over India.

      • i am not going based on the models nowadays, i have drastically reduced seeing forecast for rainfall for next 10 or 30 days, but i am sure September will have some rainy days, but not going to be normal month.

      • TN may not register good rainfall but I’m expecting Chennai to get good rainfall in september.

    • Partha, I brought n-number of times (by pasting abstract with reference) in our blog quoting that 2002-drought paper based on MJO’s eastward movement. For this I used to say always that if MJO enters IO with good amplitude (>1), then it must lose its amplitude (at least some to induce good convection in IO itself) before exiting IO towards WP via MTC. But this doesn’t happened in 2002 due to abnormal heating at WP. Hence ignited long-breaks in SWM and hence 2002 ended in drought.

      • One more important point that MJO must not gain amplitude at IO just before exiting IO. This will drain out all total convectional energy out of IO towards WP.

      • this time the break in monsoon was huge and first time this season as mentioned by GTS.

        this was due to eastward movement of MJO, why it moved, because of Kelvin returned to Phase 2, hence MJO following it back.

      • MJO in general move eastward only. Nothing new. But MJO must not move with high amplitude (>1) without losing any amplitude towards MTC/WP once entering IO. One can understand this high-amplitude MJO’s East ward phenomenon (repeaterively) by observing MJO in 2002. This year that abnormal MJO not happened till so far. So there is no link of MJO regarding break monsoon in 2015 so far. This year SWM suffering due to neutral IOD only (can not off set Elnino ).

  21. We want bigger trophy. Jupie please collect money from All August Team. We will tell location of treat.

  22. Flash…alert…MJO in general move eastward only. Nothing new. But MJO must not move with high amplitude (>1) without losing any amplitude towards MTC/WP once entering IO. One can understand this high-amplitude MJO’s East ward phenomenon (repeaterively) by observing MJO in 2002. This year that abnormal MJO not happened till so far. So there is no link of MJO regarding break monsoon in 2015 so far. This year SWM suffering due to neutral IOD only (can not off set Elnino ).

    • One more important continuation point (self observation for years): One more important point that MJO must not gain amplitude at IO just before exiting IO. This will drain out all total available convectional energy out of IO towards WP. This phenomenon especially during SWM will do lot of damage.

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