Monsoon Rains likely to revive in East & Central India

A Low Pressure area has formed over West- Central and adjoining North West Bay of Bengal, which is seen extending up to 7.6 km above mean sea level. With the development of this synoptic scale system, the eastern end of the Monsoon Trough has dipped down which would help revive Monsoon rains over East and adjoining Central India.

As on date, the overall Monsoon rainfall deficit averaged across the country stands at -11.2 %. Isolated heavy rains likely to occur over parts of Vidharba, Chhattisgarh, Odisha, Sub Himalayan West Bengal, Sikkim and north coastal Andhra Pradesh. TN, will see slight increase in rains for the next day or two followed by a decrease.

02. INSAT

Chennai to see a partly cloudy with a day time maximum temperature settling close to 34-35 C. Possibility of isolated showers towards late evening.

Coimbatore to see a cloudy day with a maximum temperature close to 31-32 C.

Madurai to see a warm day with a day time maximum temperature close to 36-37 C.

907 thoughts on “Monsoon Rains likely to revive in East & Central India

  1. Gud morning blogers .my area would hav recived atleast 5mm from yesterday rains. And still its drizzling but with lesser intensity. And there is good chance of rain in chennai today.because lpa is formed in west central-north bay of bengal.

  2. Good morning. .
    “Learn from yesterday, live for today, hope for a better tomorrow, and never stop questioning”.

    Some parts of Chennai city had light rain last night.

    Medium rain is expected over many parts of Chennai city today.A disturbance in bay of Bengal between coastal Andhra and Odisha would bring light to medium rainfall activities in Chennai and parts of north coastal Tamilnadu for another 4 days.

    Some places of North interior TN districts may expect light to medium rain for couple of days .

  3. Flash..VS-TS (hybrid) alert…heavy rains will be possible at core-Chennai again between September 3rd & 5th after present spell (which may be active till august 30th/31st).

  4. As I said yesterday, about a guy vineet who is a student in tropmet, Pune is currently working on cyclones in bay of Bengal has shared me some of his results. In the last 35 years, the pre monsoon cyclones are showing a more trend towards NE recurvature , which mostly in the previous years had been exhibiting northward movement. To check on this , they are studying on mid latitude troughs and its associated potential vorticity advection , which usually move eastwards. They have given more weightage to the troughs that are in the north or north western to the system. They are using parameters from ncep such as u and v wind vector components for 8 standard tropospheric levels, geopotential anomalies, mid tropospheric humidity, downshear etc.,

  5. Guys we can expect some heavy rains on 2nd to 5th september. For core city especially. Some 50mm minimum can be expected. In those days.

  6. Seems it have rained heavily in Vandalur. Roads and trees are very wet. No significant rain north of tambarm. Think south of tambaram would have got some 30-40 mm of rains.

  7. Light Rains recorded in Ambattur around Early Morning.
    Expecting Storms with High Intensity Spells for next 2 days over Chennai & North Tamilnadu. Temperature could settle around 35¬įC today in Chennai

  8. One more interesting share from Vineet was the reason behind SW Monsoon Lows having convection restricted to SW/Southern quadrant. Hope u all remember Selva’s post a few days back with a diagram explaining the concept of two relatively different continental and maritime type of air masses with varying properties getting wrapped into the circulation. To add to his information, what Vineet shared is as follows. He said two reasons, one is the cyclonic gyre of a beta plane associated to the LOW is dominant in case of Monsoon systems, which in general fall in the SW quadrant of any Tropical synoptic scale LOW, which in tern increases cyclonic vorticity in the SW quadrant and which eventually leads to intense boundary layer convergence and hence deep convection. One other reason is the normal case which we know is the TEJ induced shear. This easterly Jet induced shear causes convection to shift to the left of downshear region. One more interesting share was about the PBL. He said at times the boundary layer is much beyond 850 hPa and is seen extending up to 3 or 3.5 km , well up to 700 hPa layer too….

    • That is great GTS,

      But one more observation from my side, correct me if i am wrong.

      The Anti Cyclonic Gyre over Adjoining western indian ocean and south arabian sea was existing mostly during this SWM at lower levels of atmosphere. This has caused the wind to flow from NW direction over West Coast and South India. Chennai was getting TS from WNW direction as we observe the past we will know it.

      Wind from NW direction will badly affect the monsoonal winds and moisture, this will badly impact the places which receives highest rainfall during SWM season, the same pattern of wind was favourable for Deccan Plateau’s and TN. This NW winds was creating more TS at 700 and 500 HPA levels, this is very much favourable to TN and this has bought excess rainfall for us.

      This is why in the beginning of season i was saying that we will have more visit of ER waves than MJO.

    • Actually the beta gyres are the components responsible for general poleward and westward , i.e., NW movement of a system in northern hemisphere

  9. AB de Villiers became the fastest batsman to reach 8000 ODI runs during the third ODI against New Zealand in Durban, surpassing the likes of Sourav Ganguly, Sachin Tendulkar and Brian Lara

  10. Light overnight rains and drizzly morning to start with. But this always dents my spirit of getting heavy TS this evening..

  11. I hope ehsan learns to decode meteograms and meteoblue.

    Most of the rains it shows (34 mm) was suppose to happen before between 1.00am to 8.30 am and we are past that. So dont post positive comments. Stick to ur manthra of no rains.

  12. 5 worst August months since 2000 for Nunga
    1) 47 mm – 2001
    2) 48 mm – 2004
    3) 54 mm – 2000
    4) 56 mm – 2005
    5) 76 mm – 2015
    6) 82 mm – 2009
    Can Nunga get out of the top 5 list?

  13. my area got 5.5mm yesterday….this time big miss for imd nunga not kea nunga……moreover nungambakkam missing always…
    here my area monthly outlook 176+ 5.= 181

  14. The difference in upper level circulation of today and august 1997.

    in 1997, it was little elongated upto West Pacific to Europe, now it is just with in the limit of MTC to Gulf country. This is due to the weaker lower level steering winds.

  15. yesterday good rains in both tiruvallur and kanchipuram districts and light rains in parts of vellore and chennai city

    Pallipattu (Tiruvallur Dist)-3
    Tambaram (Kancheepuram Dist), Kelambakkam (Kancheepuram
    Dist)
    2 each
    R.k.pet (Tiruvallur Dist), Mahabalipuram (Kancheepuram
    Dist), Chengalpattu (Kancheepuram Dist)
    1 each

  16. News coming in..it seems Bijli distributing Biryani and Sweets in Georgetown…pre-mature celebrations taking place due to possible poor finish from Aug team. Examku padikka sonna enna pannitrukaan paarunga…

  17. Surface pressure in north bay has decreased much today in association with the LOW and the circulation is defined well in mid level and is tilted ssw with height as usual. With such an inclined set up, I wonder where would the warm core be placed in mid or upper level to reduce surface pressure in north bay

    • Sel, we cant techncially call it as UAC. Because it has already descend to sea level. Its the associated UAC of the LPA. When there Cyclone there will a UAC. too. Will u talk about it as UAC.

      • pj,u took me wrong i am not talking of any technical part.. just asking why no one is talking of UAC.

      • 1.WD induced UAC
        2.Stand alone UAC (not descending to Sea level) it can be MTC too if found in mid level alone.
        3.LOW /Cyclone Associated UAC

      • stand alone or low associated UAC In either case we will see similar wind pattern at lower level..which one will create thunderstorms?

      • mid level UAC will generate TS all around. But a Low associated system will have clouding only in SW during monsoon.

        Their behaviour changes if descends to sea level so does the track.

      • dont mistake me.. pj annaen,i am not convincing with the point UAC triggering ts ,if possible any two instances with charts and sat image?

      • so UAC wont trigger anything ?. So in september 2013 Gujarat what triggered the rains MTC did not do anything.

      • is it not a low associated with uac?.. moreover there surface conditions are more often turns supportive where fresh monsoon air take on continental dry air..more of frontal kind of ts..lot of thermal gradient comes into play over there.

      • sel may be we should speak. u are not getting what relevance i speak and vice versa.

  18. Tibetan high to increase in intensity, upper level to see increased convergence and the associated expansion of increased geopotential height is expected…

  19. With a UAC nearby, we might see strong evening thunderstorms if some of this cloudy weather clears soon in the interiors.. The thunderstorms would be succeeded by long periods of light rains/drizzles due to obvious reasons.

      • if that UAC circulation was with LOW around Odisha or North AP coast, then we would have said the LOW will bring us TS, but see the difference in circulation by latitude. This is why we are saying UAC bringing TS to NTN.

      • this is not stand alone UAC. When a system descends to sea level. we should call its a LPA.

        IMD even during Cyclone hudhud said the associated UAC extends to 7.6 kms. Will u call a named cyclone as UAC and put in this blog.

      • Yes because the LPA is too far north to influence directly.. The tilted UAC will make the difference IMO

    • I will not believe ny towers unless it rains:-) These towers creates excitement n if it doesn’t rain it breaks hearts:-)

  20. Incase anyone didn’t see my post last night, I’ll be active throughout September and support the amazing SWM month. It is expected to start with a bang this time.

  21. Hurricane Dora (Aug 6-23, 1999) was the second longest tracking storm in the Pacific Ocean back in August of 1999. The hurricane tracked across all three basins.

    Travelled 6500 miles, second to hurricane John!

  22. tis is the case we are seeing now.. convection over s-sw quadrant where the monsoon air meet the continental air,the thermal gradient at 850,700,600 hpa & pressure gradient plays a role here..those convection are not associated with UAC

  23. not like that rami, it has the variance from surface to 600 hpa and at 500 hpa is totally different.

    500 hpa levels to have direct monsoonal influence is rare, you can see that only during cyclones. The mid level mostly controlled by temp difference between equator and polar

    • That’s what I am trying to tell. Temperature difference will induce density difference. It’s common. So one has to worry if there is any difference in occupation of these 850, 500, 200 Hpa levels. For example no one can bring 500 Hpa to 850 Hpa level. 500 Hpa must stay at 500 Hpa only.

  24. proposed smart cities in TN Madurai ,Salem, Chennai, Coimbatore, Tiruchirappali, Tirunelveli, Pondicherry, Tuticorin, Cuddalore, Thanjavur, Erode, Dindigul

  25. Mayabandar­10; Aijal & Titlagarh­9 each; Patna & Titlagarh­6
    each; Lumding & Kailashahar­8 each; Patna & Panambur­6 each; Bareilly, Sultanpur, Gaya, North Lakhimpur,
    Dibrugarh, Silchar, Lengpui, Sambalpur, Bhawanipatna, Koraput & Kalingapatnam­5 each; Bahraich, Gangtok,
    Itanagar, Sundargarh, Jagdalpur, Pachmarhi, Long Islands & Portblair­3 each.

  26. omg….all congress leading states got less/nil smart cities….when this govt in india ll change????i meant all parties

    • Yes. Even constitution is outdated. It has written by keeping 30 crore people at the time of 1950. Those amendments done to constitution are not enough to cope 120 crore population. We need reforms everywhere in all sections.

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