Monsoon Low likely in North Bay

Upper Air Circulation (UAC) over Northwest Bay of Bengal & the dipping of Eastern end of the Monsoon Trough into the Bay, a fresh Monsoon low is likely to form over North Bay in the next 24-36 hrs. This disturbance will cause rainfall along parts of Odisha, North AP coast and Chhattisgarh. Heavy rainfall may also occur over one or two regions of Northeastern states and Andaman islands.

Due to this synoptic activity, possibility of evening thunderstorm activity is likely to increase over North coastal districts of TN including Chennai, Tiruvallur, Kanchipuram and interior districts of Vellore. Other districts of TN may see dry weather conditions.

Chennai: Warm day likely with max temp expected to touch 35-36c. Thundershowers to occur in and around the city & suburbs by evening

Coimbatore: Clear day with Temp expected to stay near 30-31c.

Madurai: Hot day likely with max temp flaring to 37-38c.

968 thoughts on “Monsoon Low likely in North Bay

    • oops… I could not able to load the second image (pre-Goni subtropical low) due to some unnecessary figures uploading 😦

  1. Good morning all,

    As expected by me, MJO getting suppressed in Phase 2 in the coming days. Going to be very very weak. The moisture not going to climb beyond 10N latitude.

    Image shows the blue line over South IO, not touching northern hemisphere.

  2. September Outlook likely to be Deficit across the country,

    Massive dryness expected in September. OLR anomaly, Temp at gradient level, Tropical waves forecast, NAO likely to become negative, Positive IOD emergence, ELNINO more stronger. The wave patterns looks weak across the month. MJO which is expected in the mid of the month now looks bleak. Rainfall across the country not looking positive in the first half of the month.

    Even though the Positive IOD favors entire country during ELNINO, this is too late for it to emerge. This Positive IOD should have atleast emerged by first week of August for monsoon to get revival.

    September Outlook for entire country.
    The first week of September from 01st to 06th, East coast and some parts of adjoining central parts of the states likely to get some wet spells.

    Weak MJO in Phase 2 and 3 between 17th and through end of the month, this will bring widespread rain across the country but not expected to wipe of the deficits.

    From 20th September, once again Eastern Coast of India likely to experience wet spells, it might extend to central also until month end.

    Chennai Outlook:
    Chennai has lesser number of day for rainfall in September.
    September 03rd and 04th has very good chance for TS.
    Then from 19th to 25th. During the gaps we might see some dry days or some light rain, nothing much is expected beyond the above said dates.

    SWM Withdrawal likely to begin from first week of September from NW India and progress according to normal dates.

  3. Early morning deep convective clusters associated with the bay system confirms the results of the prev studies that found peaking period of bay convective storms

    • Exactly….tropical convection associated with synoptic scale LOWS peaks between 3 and 6 am, in association with the destabilizing phase in which the day time absorbed heat radiates back increasing instability….

    • Would be interesting to see the increased resolution in further updates and gain in latitude of the closed isobar …

  4. HIMAWARI overtook METSAT in fastest satellite image updates…METSAT used to update every 10 mins while HIMAWARI updating every 7-8 mins .

  5. The monsoon performance is not always dependent on El Nino conditions, which are currently strong but then there are is a month-and-a-half left for the season to end and rains are expected during the monsoon’s withdrawal phase, said R R Kelkar, former director general of the India Meteorological Department (IMD), New Delhi.
    Speaking at an interaction organized by the Pune Union of Working Journalists here on Monday, Kelkar said that an analysis of past rainfall data shows that the possibility of two consecutive droughts is only 3%.
    “However, IMD had never used the word ‘drought’ to describe the ongoing season, but associated the deficient rainfall to El Nino,” he said.
    He added that El Nino cycle does not occur every year, but occurs every two to seven years.
    Kelkar said that a study has been undertaken on the performance of the southwest monsoon between 1871 and 2014.
    “The study showed that as many as 19 years were abundant monsoon years for India, 24 were drought years and 101 years were of a normal monsoon. This means that in any year, the probability of a drought is 17% and that of a normal monsoon is 83%,” he said, adding that of the 19 abundant monsoon years in the country, eight years were associated with the La Nina phenomenon. However, it is not necessary that every abundant monsoon year is a La Nina year too, he said.
    He added that of the 24 drought years in India, 13 were El Nino years. “But El Nino is not the sole reason behind every drought in the country.
    In addition, observations from earlier drought years indicate that 1904-05, 1965-66 and 1986-87, were years of two consecutive droughts. This shows that the probability of two consecutive droughts is just 3%.

  6. A Study carried out on the increase in post Monsoon TCs intensity in BOB

    (a) The locations and tracks of storms in the BoB for the period 1981–2010. The number of storms in each category is provided in the table overlaid.The numbers outside the parentheses indicate storm count for the entire BoB, while the numbers inside the parentheses indicate number of storms that formed to the east of 90β—¦E. (b) The ratio between PDI of storms while in major TC-phase (MTC) to the total PDI. The correlation of this ratio with time, indicated in the figure, is statistically significant at the 95% level. (c) Histogram of the mean maximum wind speed during MTC-phase for each MTC. Values of maximum wind speed averaged during MTC-phase for each MTC and over each 15 year period are shown. (d) The PDF of intensification tendencies for the two 15 year periods, 1996–2010 and 1981–1995, and the difference between them, with error bars indicated. For the 1981–1995 period, no bar is shown for the >6 category since there were no storms with an intensification tendency of more than 6 m sβˆ’1 per 36 h.

  7. 1997 north east monsoon too good for tamilnadu than 2005…
    2005- 773mm(TN)
    1997 super excess for tamilnadu and chennai
    2005 super excess only for chennai and excess for tamilnadu
    overall 1997 good than 2005
    note: 1997 elnino with positive iod

  8. Typical swm low in north-nw bay ,only the south-sw quadrant has the max convection where the moist winds interacts & northern regions like WB r free from convection..

  9. September Team – Don’t worry about IOD or Elnino or SST anomaly. Just trust Heat,Humidity and Instability in Winds.. We are going to get Violent VS TS’s for sure..

  10. A deficient August is likely to be followed by a forgettable September to round off this year’s South-West monsoon when it retreats fully from mainland India in another 35 days.

    October could spring a nasty surprise in terms of drier than normal weather, according to a long-term forecast issued on Tuesday by the APEC Climate Centre based in Busan, South Korea.

    Month-wise outlook: The month-wise break-up of expected rain for the four months of September, October, November and December projected by the South Korean forecaster is as follows:
    Excess – Odisha, Gangetic West Bengal, Arunachal Pradesh
    Normal- Chhattisgarh, East Madhya Pradesh, Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Jammu and Kashmir,Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Punjab, Northeast Rajasthan, South Tamil Nadu and Kerala
    Deficient – rest of Northwest India and South Peninsula and entire Central India.

    Normal – South Kerala, South Tamil Nadu,East Rajasthan, Punjab, Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Arunachal Pradesh, Nagaland-Mizoram-Manipur-Tripura, Assam and Meghalaya
    Deficient – East India, Northwest India, Central India and South Peninsula

    Excess – Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Bihar and extreme South Peninsula
    Normal – Northwest India, West and South Peninsula
    Deficient – Tamil Nadu, South Coastal Andhra Pradesh

    Normal – almost the whole country
    Excess – South Tamil Nadu, Kerala, entire West Coast including Konkan-Goa and adjoining interior Maharashtra, entire Madhya Pradesh and Vidarbha.

  11. Useless high cloud cover delaying the TS formations..yesterday by this time..north started to get pounded with the breeze interact..

    • i think PFS already hinted normal rainfall for NTN, and Excess for South, Velaji, Guest 11K also forecasted Normal to Excess rainfall for entire T.N

  12. Ennangada idhu koothu –

    Fresh twist: Woman allegedly killed by TV tycoon’s wife Indrani Mukerjea was her daughter, not sister

  13. Blog category wise

    1.Experts: vinod, pj, sel & gts, susa, dr.rsrao, partha,guestk,Senthil Kumar.p, shiva(Novak)

    2.Semi experts: Jon & odm, maisuh, rajkmr, surya, gajendran,Johnny prabhakar ( satellite dept)jupi

    3.Partial experts: dinagar, atchu, asad, amb Shankaran, ameen bijli, cyclone deepak,
    Last but not least….

    Note : rest of all are considered as management trainee’s/apprenticeship/helpers etc

    For queries contact : Mighty moderator kea weather

  14. Vela/mouli falls under synoptic category
    Wind forecasting = vela
    Anvil = Chandra mouli
    Photography = Srivats
    Keatured comments = k.ehsan Ahmed

  15. I’ve not missed anyone…REST is dedicated category including me, so anyone who feel they need to be upgraded feel free to tell, hereafter I will add you in that specified category

  16. after i started using these forecast models for the past two years…rainfall has decreased considerably in NEM…hopefully this time i can enjoy all these technology

  17. rains once for all died ??? thundershower struggles to form. bad luck for chennai. not a single spell of more than 3 centimeter in the last 2 months.


  18. The Real Style Of SWM is Missing In This SWM 2015.
    The Damaal Dumeel Rumbling Thunder Is What I Meant
    We Didn’t Get One 50mm+ Rainfall This SWM – 2k15
    Lightning Show Was There But Not Many Days Only On AUG 4
    Squall.My Question Is? Is This Because Of El~Nino Less Rains
    And Less Thunders..??

    • our Damaal Dumeel Rumbling Thunder will come from west only..this year entire west coast is under deficiency..kerala -31%, coastal KA – 27%..we got more rains from the bob convections till now ..i.e from north,,So this s due to elnino..Elnino gives more to north/ne

  19. Jeetu – You are in ‘STAR’ category. Without SUN ,no chance of any weather systems in earth.. In Rocking form today,,

  20. The great man who got good skills, who sensed the forthcoming disaster well before an hour….mr.future

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