The cyclonic circulation over Bihar-West Bengal border would persist, bringing in heavy showers over the mountainous regions of West Bengal, Sikkim and Meghalaya. This in combination with the upper air circulation over North Bay of Bengal, embedded in the monsoon trough, would instigate scattered thundershowers over the states of Orissa and West Bengal in the evening with a few places experiencing heavy rainfall. Across north India, along the monsoon trough, solitary thundershowers would occur in the afternoon/evening especially in Punjab, Haryana and Uttar Pradesh.
Light rain would continue in parts of the west coast. Southern Peninsula will see reduced rainfall and TN needs to contend with isolated thundershowers.
Chennai – A warm and sultry day with a maximum temperature around 35 C. Isolated showers might occur at night.
Coimbatore – A rather dry day in store with little rainfall. The mercury will not rise above 32 C.
Madurai – A hot day in store with probable thundershowers in the evening. Temperatures would peak at about 35-36 C.
KeaWeather Archives 
Good morning .
Few drizzles in few places
when our next spell starts ? shall we expect this week ?
27th sir when LPA forms
I pity August Team. Please have a look at September 1st week forecast.
The forecast looks good in the charts, let’s see if they materialize!
Spot on rajesh
It’s gfs, so it’ll change a lot.
September 1st – http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/2015/08/23/basis18/swas/prec/15090118_2318.gif
September 2nd – http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/2015/08/23/basis18/swas/prec/15090218_2318.gif
September 3rd – http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/2015/08/23/basis18/swas/prec/15090318_2318.gif
September 4th – http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/2015/08/23/basis18/swas/prec/15090418_2318.gif
September 5th – http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/2015/08/23/basis06/swas/prec/15090518_2306.gif
September 6th – http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/2015/08/23/basis18/swas/prec/15090618_2318.gif
September 7th – http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/2015/08/23/basis18/swas/prec/15090718_2318.gif
September 8th – http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/2015/08/23/basis18/swas/prec/15090818_2318.gif
Sept will rock as per prediction…even more than west coast
Flash News,
Weak MJO likely to emerge into Phase 2 by 26th.
Currently in Phase 1, this will become weaker in a single day, by 27th it enters into its nutshell.
Traffic is very less in blog today so far. I dont like this attitude, people return only when its rain is not a good habit. The spirit should be high always, either it rain or shine. Lets celebrate both occasions.
Comeback guys wherever you are…
people will come after 2pm to ask whether will it rain today
if the trend continues like this, most of them will be on the leeward side, they will not learn much.
if people want to gain knowledge, then they should also do some analysis during dry days, so that they can compare them with rainy days.
if susa or jupi thinks like that, then they would have not learnt this much, today they are rocking.
yes you are right but many are in schools and colleges now. Even i face difficulty to visit blogs during weakdays
it is fine if they are busy, but many thinks that they want to blog during rains, i am talking about those.
Thanks Partner! True that
Lol
not me i have more than 10 comments in each Topic of Kea Blog from Nov – 20(2014)
Yesterday’s Rain . . .
Tibetan high for the last one week has been gradually shifting down latitude…but stays close to mean position for this time of the year….
Tibetan high will slowly weaken and move towards Burma
Yes Jupi ,,,by October climatologically it will be anchoring itself over north Burma
So early withdrawal of SWM on the cards
I think withdrawal must be close to normal period …
Iod up to +0.41 from +0.38.
I was about to open that link, thanks for the info, yes IOD has attained that +IOD threshold of 0.4C. Still it has to hold the position for some more time.
what’s your iod forecast. will it turn further positive or decrease in coming weeks.
Great news! Good morning
Good Morning.
Tropical Storm DANNY Graphics:
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 24 Aug 2015 02:40:23 GMT
Wind Spe… http://1.usa.gov/1KG4QXs
Tropical Storm Danny advisory 23 issued.
Danny approaching the southern leeward islands. http://go.usa.gov/W3H
7 more days for september..
Imagine the september matham song in ‘Alaipayuthe’ ,that’s how the downpour will be in september.
A series of solar flares caused the northern lights to dance over Alaska and Canada this weekend http://ow.ly/Rg7FK
In Agumbe , the houses were covered with plastic sheets on many sides. We found it new, but with the damp and moist conditions that is a necessity….
Here are some…..
why did PJ post the GFS image of first 8 days of September? Anything special planned?
To motivate September Team
that’s what I thought. I didn’t see anything spectacular. Few cloudy days possible, thats all
rajeshhrd, smart answer. Pity for august even the charts are not showing anything, Jupie can come here and there put spot on..lol….rajesh being a expert, can u tell whats is store for August last week so that i can comment on the same.
Forget august for now. Tell me what’s on store for September?
We have completed 2 months of providing forecasts DC. I would like to thank all the bloggers who are involved in this initiative. You can see all the forecasts in the Kea-DC page
http://www.kea.metsite.com/deccan.php
If you do have any suggestions on how to improve please do let me know. We always want to improve further. Any suggestions will be welcome.
@kea – Forecasts layout and language are very good. Hope KEA is getting some financial perks for this. IF not we can all Fianncially contribute..
Thank you. No they offered package. We rejected it. If money is involved then everything will collapse. There is dedicated team for it. Hats off to them for doing it day after after day inspite of their busy schedule.
It may looks like two or three lines, but it takes 2 hours to prepare them.
by your language it seems, you are one of the contributors.
Understood. Why PJ ? We can use that money to setup new efficient Doppler Radars.. I have no clue ,how much they cost..
Installation and implementation need govt approval…..
Maintenance cost is so high
few crores
omg…so much
Congrats… All the Best to the team
If you need any help / support from me, i am ready to offer the same
Ehsan u dont know to ready wind barb and now u proved again that u can niether read precipitaion charts and u are saying cloudy skies. I dont know u get to interpret cloudy skies from precp charts. Hats off to your talent
ha ha. You are trying to be funny.
August + September team expected good rainfall in Chennai end of last week. It didn’t materialise. How can you be so sure 8days in advance Nunga or Meena will get the September rains?
History says that Nunga beats Meena in September. So you can rule out Meena to score big.
i am really getting angry. It rained in most of the places. U have to be god to predict rains exactly for nunga. For 4 days we got rains, what else u want.
You have lot to learn a lot. We cant predict weather for pinpoint location.
PJ try to understand. Contest is for Nung/Meena, not George Town or 6th street Anna Naga west.
yes i am least bothered about august. And when i say rains, its not nunga specific. Do DC readers or public reside only at nunga.
Please look at wider angle.
PJ,
TS chances still exists between 27th and 31st date. I have already said it, not changing till date.
I am not saying every day we have a chance, but between 27th and 31st we have a chance.
Also Positive Anomaly likely to dominate entire September. I am not competing here, just saying the forecast. I dont believe Precipitation charts, i left taking it as basic 6 months back.
did i every say it wont. Only yesterday and for next two days i am not expecting anything. But u expected widespread rains yesterday for Chennai
i did not see any forecast, just said, i was not sure at all.
just kidding.
We all know that cyclones weaken in presence of wind shear..
Here is a sequence of processes that weaken a cyclone in such a case….
1) Development of strong inner core asymmetries.
2) Asymmetries in upper core become strong enough to mix heat and PV outwards, along the shear to ventilate eye.
3) Loss of upper warm core causes surface pressure to rise.
4) Downshear advection of weakened upper levels causes downshear tilt of storm.
Courtesy :
__________
Vineet Kumar , Vagaries of weather.
Source :
________
Global perspectives on TC s by Johnny C . L Chan and Jeffrey D. Keppert …
@ PJ Sir and @ KEA , Please do not comment like this na.. PJ mocking KEA and KEA mocking PJ.. Vidunga Boss..
its fun
AS long as it is fun, no issues.. 🙂
it will be fun..I never get mad at Ehsan.
Bloggers – Why can’t we start a private professional weather team like SKYMET ?
Once again, either models picking it or not, i am sure we will get TS between 27th and 30th. I am very much confident, you can trust me on this.
https://disqus.com/home/discussion/keaweatherchennai/rains_likely_to_decrease_over_tn/#comment-2200270200
As per PAC
Puzhal, Redhills, Cholavaram got 40 – 50mm Yesterday
wherever there is white spot, all those areas got 4-5 cms?
Cholavaram 24 & Redhills 17
Source : Metro Water
17 mm at Redhills
TEJ induced wind shear has reduced drastically in last 36 hrs!!
The core high wind speeds over chennai latitude have disappeared temporarily…@100 hpa
even at mid level along TN latitudes .. tis is the second time i am noticing tat in tis season http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/indian/winds/wm5midshrZ.GIF
how about it during ER Wave interactions?
it wasnt like tis.. Now both upper level and lower level winds surge hav reduced
Today’s dip in share market gives oppr to buy.
Buy Srikalasthi pipes at 276
Buy Borosil glass at 2525
Buy Vardhaman Textiles at 907
Bounce back expected soon. If not it can be part of ur investment.
John is this your own recommendation
Yes. I am very good in shares for investment. I am in market since i was in college.
good, is it good in purchasing direct stocks are going through mutual fund better choice
diversify. 25 % in mutual fund and 75 % in shares depending upon ur age.
thanQ john
I bought them at these prices just 10 mins back.
i ma thinking to buy sun pharma. can i re-enter now?
what happens to small investors like me? Huge losses
lol. u are big HNI.
What about kaveri seeds this has also tanked a lot – it is a good short buy, on this scrip too.
No dont buy it. bad set of results.
Thanks
Bloggers no need to get disappointed if we have long dry days in short future. Chennai Nunga and Meena so far in excess category. It is too much to expect rainfall every day or often.
Selvan and GTS,
Since it is going to be dry days, just a question to you.
We are seeing the position Tibetan High at 200 HPA, since SWM winds influence is only up to 600 HPA levels, why are we seeing this level, also how it influences the lower level TEJ. I am asking in general for all seasons.
TEJ is @ 100 hPa level, 14-15 km in altitude , not at lower levels
both hav “n” number of relation when monsoon get into active state.. both upper level winds and lower level winds increases during active phase of monsoon… lower level helps in bringing moisture for TS development where as upper level helps in maintaining the life of tat TS..
u mean during the overshooting of TS the upper level supports?
if yes, then the moisture at upper level should be high, what about the wind speed, it is always high at upper level, how a TS overshooting can sustain?
not only during the overshooting stage,it helps even bfore tat..we can see the anvil spreading out when TS reach above 10-12km..OVERSHOOTING is the scenario when storm pierces into tropopause
is it not the anvils developed due to TS formation at lower level extends?
no.no..anvils wont be seen at lower level..
no no i am not saying the anvils will form at lower levels, i am saying that due TS formation at lower level and the extension of it to upper levels in form of anvils.
Yes thunderstorms extending into upper levels form anvils, but a proper one occurs near tropopause , where there is huge temperature inversion. It may form below that level also in case of mid to upper level warming..
the rising air must diverge before reaching the tropopause .tat diverging action results in anvil. tis normally happens at 300-200mb and tat divergence is aided by UPPER LEVEL EASTERLIES
oh i took tat in other way
But I think the wind speed and moisture at higher levels always affect the equilibrium level and also the maximum parcel level.
I mean..though the overshoots of thunderstorms are mainly due to updrafts(lifting of warm air from lower levels),the condition at upperlevel may have the parameters which may enhance or restrict or supress the overshooting.
So upperlevel may support or may not support the overshooting
Partha,
Winds in SWM season move northward inland towards Indian subcontinent and the surrounding South Asian low pressure belt at lower levels to mid levels , may be up to 600 hPa as u said. This entire inward rushing northward air flow is due to the meridional pressure gradient between south Indian ocean and south Asian land mass in general. So this flow completes the lower part of Hadley cell. And so what went in towards India will have to diverge at upper levels to maintain the inflow. This outflow takes place near Tibet mainly, comprising of this high pressure area, and these outflows tend to move down to south Indian ocean and sinks down , thus completing the meridional Hadley circulation. This entire process is somewhat similar to a Cyclone , wherein , inflow and outflow balance is essential for the engine to live and work. So , similarly if upper level clogging appears by way of improper ventilation in Tibetan High region , it may indirectly affect the lower level inflows, beginning from where the entire life cycle of Monsoon convection would depend on , and the vice versa case do exist. And as Selva said , T’storms life is getting supported by upper level shear, and enhancement of lower level convergence too, by way of displacing air from upper levels , to induce updrafts from surface
prefect technical flow from you, but still not clear GTS.
Oh no…:(:(
thala,
if you have any diagramatic explanation, its really hard for anyone to make me understand.
i am big tube light.
Partha, guess this might give u some idea …
good one thanks
Welcome 🙂
when the lower level winds are strong and moist enough then it reflects the upper level TEJ.
Yeah one of the facts…
so finally i have joined your page in this topic.
IMD Rainfall Update Today
Dindigul (Dindigul Dist)
7
Tiruchengode (Namakkal Dist)
6
Chinnakalar (Coimbatore Dist), Mylam AWS (Villupuram Dist), Valparai taluk office (Coimbatore Dist), Arantangi (Pudukkottai Dist)
3 each
Cholavaram (Tiruvallur Dist), Peravurani (Thanjavur Dist), Alangudi (Pudukkottai Dist), Thali (Krishnagiri Dist), Marakkanam (Villupuram Dist), Anjatti (Krishnagiri Dist), G Bazar (Nilgiris Dist), Red hills (Tiruvallur Dist), Tindivanam (Villupuram Dist), Gingee (Villupuram Dist)
2 each
Pics of 22nd Night Thunderstorms
why the metro water department not utilizing veeranam as the tank is filling up fast. this can at least solve water shortage for south chennai. any news on this from any one.
ss
they are using veeranam. We can utilize only 180 mld maximum whether 100% full of 10% full
No Mr. John. please see the veeranam in website. they are only stating 70 cusecs outflow. if your statement is 180 MLD then half of chennai at least would get sufficient water. but reality is not so. They are not using the veeranam water in full for the past few months, the reasons not known to public. Most of the south chennai areas catered by veeranam water for the past 15 days, the sumps and pumps are dry./
ss
ss, the maximum they are tapping is 100 mld per day due to operation issues and the design is for 180 mld.
Mr. JOhn. Thanks for your reply.
if you see the web site you can find only 70 cusecs of water released per second which works out to 17 MLD whereas the stipulation for chennai is 180 million liters daily or alternate days. so this works out to only 6 % of the stipulated level. so my finding is they are not utilizing veeranam to the maximum extent. i think they expect some more healthy inflow to improve the outflow. One cusec equals 28.32 liters 28.32 X 60 X60 x 24 hours x 70 outflow = 17.12 MLD. My feeling is veeranam water is used only by 15 %
ss
Sir, it is 171 mld. And chennai’s requirement is 600 mld daily.
please check. it works out to only 17.1 milions. not 171. so only 10 % of 180 million stipulated level from veernam is drawn. if remaining 90 % used, half of chennai there may not be any water shortage.
ss
70×28.32x24x60x60 = 171,279,360. Which is 171mld.
Will this Tropical Easterly Jet change its direction during NEM, i found marginal change from perfect easterly to south easterly and southerly during NEM and south westerly during end of NEM.
Yes of course it will change …the wind flows shift according to the center position of 200 hPa ridge , as it will slowly move SE wards from Tibet >> Burma >> Malaysia and then further SE wards going ahead
If the ridge center is more to the east we may see near southerlies to SSE ,,but even that depends on the blowing out and contracting in process of the ridge
with this upper level position and movement we can know the fate of NEM.
Position of Ridge and ENSO is somewhat defined , with this STR a bit south in El Nino events , but the rainfall pattern would be more related to seasonal position to STR s , which in tern are associated to global circulation patterns.
But, this can definitely give an average mean path and steering of cyclones in NEM…
For example in 2013 , the mean average position of upper level ridge was a bit north , and so the systems took a WNW track right away near SE Bay and moved towards AP coast , whereas , in case of 2005 , the position of ridge was a bit lower and further extending westwards ,,favoring tracks to TN and S.AP
you mean the upper level STR position in 2013 and 2005?
Exactly …and more over it is also related to the position of equatorial Trough
yes…
Relation between TEJ and SWM
TEJ stream extends f at to the north of Tibet and airflow is roughly along the kolkata-Bangalore axis.These upper air easterlies descend into the permanent high pressure area formed over the southern Indian ocean.This intensifies the highs present over there (Mascarene Highs) which are responsible for our SWM
It is something similar to the chicken and egg analogy….
Yes…Nice comparision..
Yes…first chicken came or egg hatched?
that is the scenario he is trying to explain, either TEJ formed first or mascarene highs, it is cyclical across the year, it keeps changing from season to season.
Yes same story MB buddy ..Lol
Lol
Omg…very active day/session of the very first week by experts.
asusual sel/gts return when the rain chance faded
Combo attack
yes
Krishangiri Dam (1666 Mc.ft) is full and its going to over flow
http://www.maalaimalar.com/2015/08/24103022/Krishnagiri-KRP-dam-fill-5-dis.html
There will always be a possible positive feedback between the Tibeten high / TEJ and the monsoon convection.
Interesting point about Tibeten High
Just like the TH there always exists an anticyclone over North America Sector (Mexican High)
The interesting part is that in between the TH and MH there exists two troughs in mid pacific and mid atlantic oceans
The clockwise flow around TH contains easterly jet stream
I mean that TH always had a direct influence from TEJ
It is a Thermal wind balance …
Partha…what’s your view on iod with nem for Oct and Nov?
I am totally out of scope on this, IOD could not be predicted by any model.
If I go with past scenario like IOD coupled with ELNINO, I would say the SST anomaly counts more than IOD values. SST anomaly over eastern part of IO is also not cooling enough to get IOD Positive perfectly.
We need negative anomaly over Eastern Part to get IOD in September.
Overall, IOD values should keep increasing in September when comparing to August and should stay in October, this values should not come down in between. If this happens i feel we have very good NEM. Otherwise it can stay in Neutral until NEM onset, this will bring Normal rainfall.
Yes…overfall I too feel that nem will crawl to reach normal this year despite iod’s performance
whatever may be the IOD, minimum normal rainfall expected, i am sure chennai and surroundings going to get more that that.
Strong HPA at 700hpa level over Northwest India on 31st August. Looks like SWM is over for Punjab, Rajasthan and NCR regions.
http://www.imd.gov.in/section/nhac/dynamic/nwp/168hgfs_700wind.htm
South Peninsula going to rock from 26 th
Yes. AP and TS will get good rains along with TN and interior Karnataka.
September 1st week looks even more promising.
http://www.monsoondata.org/wx/prec.html
Yes I am very exited to see rains in kurnool..
Sel and GTS,
Thanks for the info and patience shown as usual to my silly questions.
Now bloggers have to think that during dry days, there will be more scope for learnings, they should not be away. If they are free they should login during these days, not to miss the opportunity.
Lull days for pondy
Yes, after a few good days!
Damn it, click for updates!
SST anomaly over Eastern IO slowly changing to Negative. Don’t take the pic attached as exactly, the change has started to commence, we need to wait for its sustenance.
This Day In Weather History
Vostok, Wilkes Land, Antarctica (1960)
About 1,176 kilometers from the Indian Ocean, the mercury fell to minus 127 degrees F (minus 88C). This was the lowest recorded temperature ever on the face of the earth, until July 21, 1983, when the temperature reached minus 128.6 degrees at the same location.
Virginia (1906)
Cloudburst at Guinea, VA – 9.25 inches of rain in only 40 minutes.
SOI sustaining below -20 for the past 4 days consistently.
https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seasonalclimateoutlook/southernoscillationindex/30daysoivalues/
Bangalore 1.10pm., Sunny with puffy passing clouds., sky pics # Marathahalli
Latest SST chart. SST in WIO is around 30 C and in EIO around 29C.
SST anomaly chart. Click on the image for the latest chart.
Classic positive iod
Also SST anomaly near South American coast showing warming trend.
Not that much great warming. Most interestingly NOAA still indicationg warm SSTA near NW-Australian Coast differing drastically with CDAS. Which one is correct??http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2015/anomnight.8.20.2015.gif
This chart is three days old. Lets wait for today’s NOAA sst anomaly chart.
but as per CDAS sst anomaly chart, SST anomaly has shown warming trend near SA coast.
Yes, but still very solid and symmetrical warming pattern as of 1997 style still lacking. http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/1997/anomnight.8.22.1997.gif
NASA expecting Godzilla El nino( nino 3.4 anomaly above 3.5C) in coming months.
lovely day…not sure how many will agree pleasesant breeze all the time with warm sunshine
Parth my northern side balcony is getting away from sunlight (other day we were talking about this)…and more Northerly and NW wind blowing…these are like september conditions
fantastic Krishna, i have taken the pic in my mobile will post if space allowed here.
Same here..sun started drifting towards westward journey
this is the top view right is the north…earlier my wires where all these dress hangs will be in sun…now it is in the shade
NASA expecting Godzilla El nino( nino 3.4 anomaly above 3.5C) in coming months
Yes someone posted yesterday(I think u only) about Godzilla elnino, I think elnino ll not attain full fledge status according to BOM,what’s ur take?
ER also awaiting to counter MJO. But it looks both are in weak amplitude. http://cawcr.gov.au/staff/mwheeler/maproom/OLR_modes/f.3.n1ER.html
As per QBO latest forecast, it will stay around +12 during OND period.
I have not even started it, no time for me to do it.
During coming NEM, Chennai may get excess rainfall and TN normal rainfall( similar to 1918 NEM, Chennai got excess rainfall around 1270 mm but TN got only normal rainfall around 486 mm).
This year QBO and IOD behaving very similar to 1918 values.
Lol 1918?? Almost 100 year comparison nothing… will not materialaize… Things have changed, Better to expect near normal/normal at best.. No scope for expecting excess n disappointed later. Every year same story expectation like 2005…
even experts( Joe Bastardi and few others) considering 1918 as analog for this year. IF you analyze QBO and IOD vlues of this year with 1918 values, they are very similar and also el nino showing similar trend to 1918 event.
Not against iod n qbd but relating it to chennai is uncertainty
There are few years(1943, 1976, 1960..) in which Chennai got excess rainfall but TN got normal rainfall. So similar thing can happen again.
India deficit reaches – 10 % again from -9%..
Oh no wat an upset india upset lanka
Yesterday aus upset eng today the best team won
Recent study of models performance during cyclone season in north indian ocean basin from 2010-2014 shows NCEP GFS outplayed ECMWF& UKMO.. The ensemble means track forecasts errors of
NCEP, ECMWF, UKMO models at 72 hr were 252, 322, and 374 km respectively.. ECMWF had better skills over bay of bengal compared to arb sea.. worst performance is from UKMO which showed very high negative skill over both arb &bay
partha ji u told Exactactly 19 to 22 good rains may be places and intensity differ but he is correct observer hats of to him
Check out the pattern which is in the right side of the below diagram. Current el nino will have the same pattern.( 1957, 1965, 1972, 1997 pattern) during NEM.
Positive IOD and Jupi’s Connem,
I know Jupi has not completed it yer, but what Jupi was saying in his initial draft was if SWM is excess then NEM will below normal.
1. So far SWM is excess, if Positive IOD emerges then I feel drastic reduction in rainfall in September over Chennai, this will bring Chennai’s accumulated rainfall from June to September below normal or normal. Then NEM will be an excess. This will make Jupi’s CONNEM to successful.
2. If Positive IOD does not emerge, then Chennai will get more rainfall in September, then we will be here to see excess rainfall from June to September, hence Neutral IOD + ELNINO is also good for NEM, the rainfall from October to November will become Normal. Then Jupi’s theory might prove wrong?
Even the second option happens, Jupi’s theory may not be proven wrong, since during ELNINO years we have seen Excess SWM rainfall and Excess NEM rainfall in the past, Deficit SWM rainfall and Deficit NEM rainfall.
Hence Jupi you need to wait till next year to conclude your theory.
Partha, first of all from where did this “excess SWM” and “poor NEM” come in my theory???! It’s not there
I have a memory of seeing like that Jupi.
Oh no partner! 🙂
Connem is a phenomenon, not a theory actually
But you said you are on a verge to prove it soon
Yes, but in October
But now you ruled out that its not a theory… Earlier PJ was right about connem
tis year ELNINO took the full control..i dont think ther will be large scale changes over indian ocean in coming months.. small dynamic changes may not influence us in a big way
Dry air over NW likely to enter from 02nd or 03rd September at 850 HPA level.
ACC might form in subsequent days, SWM withdrawal might commence from first week of September.
http://www.ncmrwf.gov.in/All_times.php?Level=850&CDate=2015-08-24&Id=1&CType=Wind-Forecast&Model=NGFS-Outputs
Nw means India’s nw or chennai’s nw areas around nagari belt?
lol no… NW india…
I asked for clarity purpose
OMG!!!!
OK partha I assume it’s nw India as a withdrawal aspect
Jeetu,
If its withdrawal, surely it should start from NW India.
That TEJ started to move from its place, the forecast for next 10 days suggests that it will come down in latitude. The off position of this TEJ is an indication of SWM withdrawal at this time of the year.
Sir,
When Will You Come Up With Your Full Forecast On NEM – 2015 Like Last Year Which Was Spot On!!!
this time it is so difficult to prepare, i just made 50% so far. additional roles assigned to me, also i need september data also to give the forecast. hence will give my forecast by September end or October.
Ohh…Thank You…Sir!
Expecting it soon .
any chances of localized pop ups today ? ..i see some clouds forming nr besant ngr nw.
Thunderstorm with double cap- florida, Amazing one,,
South west monsoon rainfall over chennai
Nungambakkam – Actual- 301, Normal- 284 ( 17mm excess)
Meenambakkam- Actual- 357,Normal – 311 ( 46mm excess)
Nungambakkam having high chances to enter deficit category in next 2-3 days
Super!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
super ???
yep… nunga going to enter deficit category!
Y u r happy in nunga deficiency
because i’m Meena Supporter!
meena is only 46+. its not safe either
Lol…..nunga ll reach excess in sep again
Still 133mm needed for a normal swm this year (433.9mm)..
Motion Picture Of Raining!
Cumulus in Sky!
10 Things You Need To Know About El Niño:
http://www.wfp.org/stories/10-facts-about-el-nino
Time Lapse!
Sea breeze likely in few minutes…
TS within 30 KM radius over North of Nunga, just crossed into sea…
Cumulus explosion over east here…
Image below
Just one week left for Aug team
Infact we can count days with our fingers
sep month ll go in jet speed …dont worry
yes . gone with wind style
just 1 month and 1 week left for october
yes . September going to be worse than August
What hppn to contest results kea?
no one won…
Sir,
Where is ur next forecast?
Lots of clouds towards north east and east
Yes..those are remnants of the tiny ts passed north of nunga
Pls see …we badly need that
Why???still NEM not yet started??
OMG
No rains expected before that?
also a possibility if winds support. a thundershower can move from sea towards city. but the month of august, little chance.
ss
Storm intensifyed as soon as it reached
August end ah nokki pogudhe…..:(:(
:(:(:(:(:(:(:(:(
Some rains expected after 27th
still 7 days there…..more rains possible
Good evening all.
Today again going to be Pondy to Marakkanam day . A small intense Pop has emerged North east of Thiruvannamalai.
winds perfect nw to se
4 pm Radar image
september match will be abandoned due to lack of grounds and sponsors .. lol
is there any one guess a thundershower might move from sea towards city in few minutes time, as i noticed quite a lot of convection takes place due to interaction of strong sea breeze near chennai port.
ss
current scenario
now pop up behind vlr.
slowly radar becoming live..
chances for more popups near the coast. the one which we saw few minutes back entered sea and gained lot of strength. if winds favors this might as well move back to city.. let us keep track.
ss
Like nem?
Godzilla el nino coming as per CFS forecast.
Will it be too bad or Good for NEM season ?
Too good for NEM! 🙂
hi captain
Hi rame
Without +ve IOD???
El Nino is bigger than iod ramirao